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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 441

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
cLutZ
Profile Joined November 2010
United States19574 Posts
March 15 2016 15:53 GMT
#8801
That is not what he's trying to say, it says that things that are indicators that you are likely to know science, in general, make you more polarized on the the issue of government policy to affect global warming.

Quite honestly, its very dense to pretend that you don't know what the article says and keep acting like specific knowledge such as training in climate science, is necessary to come to the conclusions of that article. That is the opposite of what you want to test for because its confirmation bias, "Well this group says X, and since we tested for whether people who said X would say X, we got a 99% correlation, amazing!"
Freeeeeeedom
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-15 16:18:17
March 15 2016 15:59 GMT
#8802
the conclusion desired needs the correct identification of the informed group. there is no need for training in climate science to do this just actually use a relevant survey.




basically it overstates the case about cultural cognition being all there is. dan kahan's pet project is all about pushing that idea
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
March 15 2016 16:43 GMT
#8803
here is a similar paper using better survey and competence indicators finding more effect for informedness.

http://pubpages.unh.edu/~lch/Hamilton2012_PolarGeo_authors.pdf

We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
cLutZ
Profile Joined November 2010
United States19574 Posts
March 15 2016 16:56 GMT
#8804
Your own paper fully supports his assertion:

This analysis supports previous findings of polarization among high-information respondents.


In fact, the paper itself says almost exactly what I said that if you ask about specific climate questions you are biasing your group to include people who are concerned!

For example, people who believe the globe is warming could be more likely
to retain and credit information about ice caps melting, compared with people who believe the globe is
not warming. Biased assimilation and related ideas discussed earlier imply that some climate-related
information is accepted because it fits broader beliefs about the reality of climate change, rather than
shaping those beliefs in the first place. The prospect that retention of certain climate facts or “facts”
could behave like a dependent variable, predicted from general beliefs, suggests hypotheses for future
research.


Freeeeeeedom
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-15 17:05:34
March 15 2016 16:59 GMT
#8805
i never denied that effect, try reading. what i said was the yale paper does not support the conclusion that being informed on the science has no effect on one's position.

the problem i identified is yuuuge and obvious to anyone with some social science research experience


let me help you out to make this easier:

obviously motivated belief mechanism still works to make ideologically pleasing conclusions more admissible in factual inquiry but this study does not suggest actual science literacy is irrelevant. it just does not capture that in any serious way


We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-15 17:52:04
March 15 2016 17:51 GMT
#8806
On March 15 2016 22:20 WhiteDog wrote:
Show nested quote +
In a way the second and third world is this century's proletariat tearing down capitalist borders, you should be the first person to empathize.

I empathize as a man with those people, not because they tear down frontiers but because they flee conflicts. This situation has nothing to do with socialism : it is the capitalism (inequalities, war, etc.) that leads those people to tear down border actually, and the development of capitalism has always passed through the extension of the market above regional or local interests / culture.
You're mistaking socialism for libetarianism, and capitalism for conservatism, and it's quite insulting to be fair because you paint me as young idiot that vote the left whatever the reason because I'm somewhat sure of its moral superiority and not for the actual political proposals that the left may have and its actual effect in context. My point was exactly that Merkel decided her actions on ethics and ideology without thinking the consequences - much like with the Greeks.

You can welcome all the refugee you want, if you don't take into consideration the natives and their feeling/desires, it can only result to failure and violence.


I'm not sure it makes sense at all to frame this like a national issue. I mean we've literally never respected their borders to the point where we just decided that it would be fun to draw them in the sand ourselves and the Russian's and American's have been going at it on their soil for pretty much five decades. And now a million or two of those people hand us the paycheck and we're all up in arms and ask how they dare to cross our holy borders? While they're fighting secular dictators that have for some reason ended up running every single country in the region? It's almost comical really.
lord_nibbler
Profile Joined March 2004
Germany591 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-15 18:45:16
March 15 2016 18:43 GMT
#8807
@cLutZ @oneofthem
I do not get what you are actually arguing about.
The quotes you give are either so obvious to me, than I can see no point of contention, or they are completely over my head...

I just watched a talk about AI, the human brain and our understanding of its model.
Turns out, to classify thoughts and believes with a social criteria is a normal cognitive function. It is an integral part of learning. So of course a lot of 'truth' you hold, are very dependent on you social environment.

Here is the video: Computational Meta-Psychology
(Watch the intro and then just jump to 33min if you don't have time.)
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
March 15 2016 19:01 GMT
#8808
i was saying that study overstated its results quite significantly. clutz says oh but we can't really go to the other extreme and only count climate scientists as 'informed.' that was basically a strawman against a position i never took.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
cLutZ
Profile Joined November 2010
United States19574 Posts
March 15 2016 19:24 GMT
#8809
No, I was saying that your proposed method of testing for a person's "climate knowledge" was prone to selection bias. To which the study you picked said, "yup".
Freeeeeeedom
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5299 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-15 20:03:03
March 15 2016 20:02 GMT
#8810
there are literally thousands of surveys going into NSF; i quoted a quiz for 8th grade or something for fuck sake.
go ham on http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Global-Warming-CCAM-March-2015.pdf as being ONE of many surveys on climate change used by NSF(National Science Foundation).
after you read it, go find some more then read those too.
when you've had enough of them, go tell those people at Yale that they suck, 'cause i'm done here.
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-16 00:08:20
March 15 2016 20:20 GMT
#8811
look at the yale study itself, the 8 questions are in supplemental information and are extremely low bar for competence.

as for clutz, no, i did not propose testing climate scientists just a higher bar of competence that actually touch on the science issues involved in the climate questions. there is no selection issue, you are looking for collinearity between polar knowledge and ideology but they excluded that on purpose.

5. Ideology×polar knowledge interaction terms also were tested, but found to have no significant
effects. They did raise problems with multicollinearity, and for both of these reasons are left out
of the Table 3 models.
ignoring the potential tanglement between ideology and polar knowledge acquisition, polar knowledge still increased concern in the conservative cohort

here's the survey the yale study used,

"EARTHOT The center of the Earth is very hot [true/false].
86%

HUMANRADIO All radioactivity is man-made [true/false].
84%

LASERS Lasers work by focusing sound waves [true/false].
68%

ELECATOM Electrons are smaller than atoms [true/false].
62%

COPERNICUS1 Does the Earth go around the Sun, or does the Sun go around the Earth?
72%

COPERNICUS2 How long does it take for the Earth to go around the Sun? [one day, one month, one year]
45%

DADGENDER It is the father’s gene that decides whether the baby is a boy or a girl [true/false].
69%

ANTIBIOTICS Antibiotics kill viruses as well as bacteria [true/false].
68%"




what sort of competence or informedness is actually tested here? some very weak stuff
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
AA.spoon
Profile Joined January 2011
Belgium331 Posts
March 15 2016 21:02 GMT
#8812
On March 16 2016 05:20 oneofthem wrote:

COPERNICUS1 Does the Earth go around the Sun, or does the Sun go around the Earth?
72%


what sort of competence or informedness is actually tested here? some very weak stuff




The question is poorly formulated, as a physicist I wouldn't know how to answer it. In general relativity:
1. For an observer who is at rest on the surface of the earth, the Sun rotates around the Earth.
2. For an observer who is at rest on the surface of the sun, the Earth rotates around the Sun.
Both answers are correct.

(and it actually rotates around the center of mass...)
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28798 Posts
March 15 2016 21:06 GMT
#8813
That might seem completely trivial but look at the numbers.. Huge numbers of people got a significant amount of those wrong. If your argument is that 'among people who could type out a hypothetical genome sequence, belief in man made global warming is near 100%' then sure, I buy that. The argument I'm reading from the study is rather that among most of the population, like the 54% (made up number) that happen to know that electrons are smaller than atoms but that still don't understand anything about actual climate change math, their belief or disbelief in man made global warming is rather determined by 'groupthink' than about 'scientific literacy' because on the tests determining scientific literacy there was little difference. And it makes sense to me. I certainly consider myself 'top 10%' of 'scientifically literate', but I still accept that man made global warming is a reality without understanding any of the science that explains it. I can see how if you make a separation between the top 1% of scientifically literate and compare that with the rest of the population, then scientific literacy becomes the prime determiner, but not for the population as a whole..
Moderator
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-15 21:16:45
March 15 2016 21:15 GMT
#8814
the study's author wrote a very aggressive conclusion that stated scientific literacy has no place in the determination of perceived global warming threat level. this is just not supported by their way of measuring scientific literacy.

if we are just talking about groupthink, of course it exists. but hte problem comes when you try to throw a wrench into 'scientific communication' by saying it is irrelevant. this is not true.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
Liquid`Drone
Profile Joined September 2002
Norway28798 Posts
March 15 2016 21:23 GMT
#8815
well, I didn't read the full study, only the excerpts posted here. And I'm not arguing that scientific literacy is irrelevant - but it intuitively makes sense to me that it isn't actually the main qualifier, unless our definition of scientific literacy deems a good 90%+ of people as scientifically illiterate.
Moderator
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
March 15 2016 21:36 GMT
#8816
level of 'competence' depends on the issue. the existence of group think and whatnot was never in dispute. but trying to stretch that into a statement about how science education is not important is just bad.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-15 22:17:57
March 15 2016 22:05 GMT
#8817
On March 16 2016 02:51 Nyxisto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2016 22:20 WhiteDog wrote:
In a way the second and third world is this century's proletariat tearing down capitalist borders, you should be the first person to empathize.

I empathize as a man with those people, not because they tear down frontiers but because they flee conflicts. This situation has nothing to do with socialism : it is the capitalism (inequalities, war, etc.) that leads those people to tear down border actually, and the development of capitalism has always passed through the extension of the market above regional or local interests / culture.
You're mistaking socialism for libetarianism, and capitalism for conservatism, and it's quite insulting to be fair because you paint me as young idiot that vote the left whatever the reason because I'm somewhat sure of its moral superiority and not for the actual political proposals that the left may have and its actual effect in context. My point was exactly that Merkel decided her actions on ethics and ideology without thinking the consequences - much like with the Greeks.

You can welcome all the refugee you want, if you don't take into consideration the natives and their feeling/desires, it can only result to failure and violence.


I'm not sure it makes sense at all to frame this like a national issue. I mean we've literally never respected their borders to the point where we just decided that it would be fun to draw them in the sand ourselves and the Russian's and American's have been going at it on their soil for pretty much five decades. And now a million or two of those people hand us the paycheck and we're all up in arms and ask how they dare to cross our holy borders? While they're fighting secular dictators that have for some reason ended up running every single country in the region? It's almost comical really.

The problem is not that people come to our countries, the problem is how we make society. Opening your arms, out of some desire to make it seem like you're good inside (while doing nothing to help the people that suffer in their daily lifes just next to you, and that oftentime are also sons of immigrants) is not really a solution to anything (especially if you close your eyes as soon as those people are "in").
Also, history is irrelevant to current politics.

On March 16 2016 06:36 oneofthem wrote:
level of 'competence' depends on the issue. the existence of group think and whatnot was never in dispute. but trying to stretch that into a statement about how science education is not important is just bad.

The point is that politics is not about scientific truth, but also values, and that in what most scientist propose or defend from a political standpoint, there is an objective, testable part, and a part that rely on a set of values. Science and education is important, just not that much for anything related to political questions.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
Belisarius
Profile Joined November 2010
Australia6233 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-15 23:07:09
March 15 2016 23:05 GMT
#8818
It's reasonable that one could answer all those questions correctly and still lack the competence to make an even slightly informed opinion on climate change. I'd hope that pretty much any college grad would get at least 80% of them and there are a lot of college grads with weird ideas.

It's also reasonable that the majority of people with vested interests in any industry harmed by emissions targets would get them correct.

Whether those two factors together are enough to explain the trend, I don't know. The data really is quite clear.

It's also, frankly, terrifying that 55% of people don't know how long it takes the earth to orbit the sun. I wonder if we can blame 'Murica or if that is standard for the Western world.
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-15 23:19:37
March 15 2016 23:05 GMT
#8819
On March 16 2016 05:20 oneofthem wrote:
COPERNICUS2 How long does it take for the Earth to go around the Sun? [one day, one month, one year]
45%
What the actual fuck? How did 55% of people get this wrong?

Btw balisaurias, the barycentre of Sun-Earth is pretty much inside the Sun, so it can be somewhat argued that the Earth rotates around the Sun in common non scientific parlance.
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-15 23:21:32
March 15 2016 23:12 GMT
#8820
On March 16 2016 00:21 xM(Z wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 16 2016 00:07 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
I just have an issue with

1) that identifying with groups and their cultural ideas is a sophisticated concept
2) that doing so is a reasoning/scientific way to think
3) that xM(Z only response is to quote the same article over and over because he thinks we are intimidated by a few long words. Quoting A and saying it shows B.

you're stuck on the previous page - semantics over the definition of confirmation bias(which i said it's based mainly on faith/beliefs/(non-scientific)hypotheses.
present another argument or let it go.


This is our actual conversation:+ Show Spoiler +

On March 15 2016 05:56 xM(Z wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2016 05:44 AngryMag wrote:
On March 15 2016 05:32 xM(Z wrote:
dude, what you suffer of is this: identity-protective cognition
(quote from a .pdf)
The “cultural cognition thesis” is a relatively new approach to science communication (e.g., see Kahan, 2010, 2012, 2015; Kahan, Jenkins-Smith, & Braman, 2011; Kahan et al., 2012). Theoretically, the approach can be seen as a conceptual marriage between the “cultural theory of risk” (Douglas & Wildavsky, 1982) and the psychometric paradigm (Slovic, 2000). Broadly, the theory aims to explain why groups with different “cultural outlooks” tend to disagree about important societal issues. In particular, the cultural cognition thesis argues that public disagreement over key societal risks (e.g., climate change, nuclear power) arises not because people fail to understand the science or lack relevant information, but rather as a result of the fact that “people endorse whichever position reinforces their connection to others with whom they share important ties” (Kahan, 2010, p. 296). This latter notion is central to much of the cultural cognition thesis and is generally referred to as a specific form of motivated reasoning, namely, “identity-protective cognition” (Kahan, 2012). Because espousing beliefs that are not congruent with the dominant sentiment in one’s group could threaten one’s position or status within the group, people may be motivated to “protect” their cultural identities. In fact, the cultural cognition thesis predicts that identity-protective reasoning is a mechanism that people unconsciously employ to assimilate (risk) information. In other words, people are expected to process information in a motivated way, that is, consistent with their cultural worldviews (Kahan, 2012). A key prediction that flows from this theory is that when people are exposed to (new) scientific information, “culturally” biased cognition will merely reinforce existing predispositions and cause groups with opposing values to become even more polarized on the respective issue (Kahan, 2010, 2012).
(tldr /b so stop calling people names). if more and more people connect with the likes of Afd, means there's a real problem somewhere.



Sounds like a slightly more refined confirmation bias.

confirmation bias is to identity-protective cognition what neanderthal is to sapiens.

On March 15 2016 06:02 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
No, its pretty much the same thing. Only difference is that one is individual, and the other is social.

On March 15 2016 06:15 xM(Z wrote:
one implies blind faith/mob mentality, the other accounts for reasoning/science.

On March 15 2016 06:30 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
Which one is which? They are both forms of unreasoning.



Why are you saying I am arguing over something I am in fact not arguing against? Nowhere am I discussing semantics, confimation bias or otherwise. Either you are saying that your "identity-protective cognition" is blind faith/mob mentality or it is reasoning/science. Which one is it? Why can't you answer? It's because you know that you are wrong and that identity-protective cognition has nothing to do with reasoning/science. Why are your answers just random quotes which has nothing to do with any discussion. Your replies are so irrelevent to my replies it is just increasingly bizarre. It's as if you don't understand that a response is supposed to be related to a previous comment.
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