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On March 21 2020 08:19 TheDwf wrote:
@Dutch people: is your Prime minister still sticking to his "herd immunity" strategy regarding the coronavirus? Is there a national debate about that? It was never a thing to begin with. An bad choice of words and people running with it.
We're taking similar measures as other countries and primary ensuring healthcare isn't overwhelmed. Because of how long this is suspected to last and the risk of it recurring 'herd immunity' is something that happens naturally over time, you know the 70-80% of people are going to get it number that keeps being thrown around by varies health organisations.
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"Old" news, but since nobody is posting about it, the EU never stops to amaze me on how disunited we really are.
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/26/world/europe/26reuters-health-coronavirus-eu-summit.html?searchResultPosition=5
BRUSSELS — European Union leaders failed to agree on Thursday on the scale of support for their economies battered by the coronavirus, but gave themselves two more weeks to work out details in a dispute between the ailing south and the fiscally conservative north.
Highlighting how the pandemic is testing the bloc's cohesion, Germany and the Netherlands blocked a call from Italy, Spain and France to issue joint debt to help finance a recovery.
All 27 national EU leaders wrangled during a six-hour videoconference over setting up a credit line worth some 2% of their economic output from the European Stability Mechanism bailout fund of the 19-member single-currency zone.
In the end, they tasked their finance ministers to work out the details in the next two weeks.
"Some member states ... suggested those corona bonds," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said after the discussion ended. "We said that this is not the point of view of all member states. And that's why the ESM is the preferred instrument for me."
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Italy has reported more than 80,000 infections and 8,160 deaths from the coronavirus. After the bloc initially left the country to fend for itself in the outbreak, Rome secured protective equipment from China and Russia, the EU's geostrategic rivals, rather than its peers.
"What's at stake is the survival of the European project," French President Emmanuel Macron told his EU counterparts.
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On March 29 2020 07:14 Godwrath wrote:"Old" news, but since nobody is posting about it, the EU never stops to amaze me on how disunited we really are. https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/26/world/europe/26reuters-health-coronavirus-eu-summit.html?searchResultPosition=5Show nested quote +BRUSSELS — European Union leaders failed to agree on Thursday on the scale of support for their economies battered by the coronavirus, but gave themselves two more weeks to work out details in a dispute between the ailing south and the fiscally conservative north.
Highlighting how the pandemic is testing the bloc's cohesion, Germany and the Netherlands blocked a call from Italy, Spain and France to issue joint debt to help finance a recovery.
All 27 national EU leaders wrangled during a six-hour videoconference over setting up a credit line worth some 2% of their economic output from the European Stability Mechanism bailout fund of the 19-member single-currency zone.
In the end, they tasked their finance ministers to work out the details in the next two weeks.
"Some member states ... suggested those corona bonds," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said after the discussion ended. "We said that this is not the point of view of all member states. And that's why the ESM is the preferred instrument for me."
...
Italy has reported more than 80,000 infections and 8,160 deaths from the coronavirus. After the bloc initially left the country to fend for itself in the outbreak, Rome secured protective equipment from China and Russia, the EU's geostrategic rivals, rather than its peers.
"What's at stake is the survival of the European project," French President Emmanuel Macron told his EU counterparts.
Coming from the European leadership, this kind of talk is pretty rich. When it came time to handle a very serious pandemic, it was the nations that took care of their national crises, not the European entities. And what humanitarian aid they did get, came from Russia and China. When it comes time to push even token measures to handle the economic fallout, you get the kind of gridlock mentioned here. But they certainly don't forget to remind everyone how important EU unity is at a time like this.
With allies like that, who needs enemies?
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Handling Pandemics is each memberstates own Job, The EU doesn't and never had the power to do it.
If it would have done something, you would be here complaining about the EU overreaching.
Italy is and was allready buddying up with Russia/China way before this.
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On March 29 2020 14:34 Velr wrote:
Handling Pandemics is each memberstates own Job, The EU doesn't and never had the power to do it.
If it would have done something, you would be here complaining about the EU overreaching.
Italy is and was allready buddying up with Russia/China way before this.
You are obviously right. The EU institutions neither have the budget nor the executive organs nor the legislative power to do this job.
But regardless of the organizational status quo, handling pandemic crisis situations is so obviously an issue that shouldn't be handled on a national level, that for once I can understand the frustration with the EU of those who need aid in this situation.
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it's disgusting how these countries behave. The arrogance of how the Austrian chancellor said that they don't want to guarantee Italy's credits is breathtaking. But at least he had the guts to do so publicly, looking at you Germany-
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On March 29 2020 19:42 Artisreal wrote:
it's disgusting how these countries behave. The arrogance of how the Austrian chancellor said that they don't want to guarantee Italy's credits is breathtaking. But at least he had the guts to do so publicly, looking at you Germany-
In his defense, he his busy taking on humongous sums of debt to throw at rich hoteliers who don't want to have less income for a few months just because of this crisis or heck, even have to sell their multimillion land properties because they lose out for once. Also small businesses that have to pay rent, because the government has forbidden most private economic activity besides leeching rent and enforcing debts of businesses and privateers actually need money now to throw at their landlords.
Never let a good crisis go to waste! I'm really glad that all the landlords are still allowed to collect their money and that the working and consuming classes will have to pay off the debts made today in the future so that this mechanism can go on during the crisis, as they are the only ones going to be taxed after the crisis. More than ever, hearing about all the great ideas of lowering taxes for rich people and enterprises so that they can power through.
So yeah, we really don't have the money to pay for Southern countris with how much money the conservatives filthbags are trying to extract to stabilize themselves and throw the taxpayers under the bus instead.
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On March 29 2020 21:16 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On March 29 2020 19:42 Artisreal wrote:
it's disgusting how these countries behave. The arrogance of how the Austrian chancellor said that they don't want to guarantee Italy's credits is breathtaking. But at least he had the guts to do so publicly, looking at you Germany- In his defense, he his busy taking on humongous sums of debt to throw at rich hoteliers who don't want to have less income for a few months just because of this crisis or heck, even have to sell their multimillion land properties because they lose out for once. Also small businesses that have to pay rent, because the government has forbidden most private economic activity besides leeching rent and enforcing debts of businesses and privateers actually need money now to throw at their landlords. Never let a good crisis go to waste! I'm really glad that all the landlords are still allowed to collect their money and that the working and consuming classes will have to pay off the debts made today in the future so that this mechanism can go on during the crisis, as they are the only ones going to be taxed after the crisis. More than ever, hearing about all the great ideas of lowering taxes for rich people and enterprises so that they can power through. So yeah, we really don't have the money to pay for Southern countris with how much money the conservatives filthbags are trying to extract to stabilize themselves and throw the taxpayers under the bus instead.
Wow. It's hard for me to even keep track of what our 16 federal States try to do to combat the crisis, much less how our neighbors fare. Thank you for this write-up.
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On March 29 2020 19:42 Artisreal wrote:
it's disgusting how these countries behave. The arrogance of how the Austrian chancellor said that they don't want to guarantee Italy's credits is breathtaking. But at least he had the guts to do so publicly, looking at you Germany-
No arrogance, just doesn't want to go down with a sinking ship.Smart.
The Italian/Greek economies are going to drag the EU into either a complete top down closer union or lead to the collapse of the project.Looking at how things are heading now I lean heavily toward the latter... Let's see how this 'coronabond' scheme plays out.
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Colour me shocked that you see the end of the EU again. As you always did and have done since... Well, probably since your very first post here.
That you still act as if your opinion is actually formed by the EU's or it's member states policies is pretty impressive tho, kudos.
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New Italian EU membership poll from @Europeelects on twitter.Opinion sure has shifted a lot since November 2018.
Best case scenario for pro union folks is this is a temporary movement due to the EU's poor handling of the coronavirus situation, yet they still need to work through the economic issues that will follow.How long until Germany and The Netherlands buckle on their coronabond opposition?
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/19/world/europe/19reuters-health-coronavirus-germany-italy.html
Germany instead wants to use the ESM which would allow Italy between 35-37 billion euros (as stated by above article).
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Italy leaving the EU would mean instant default for Italy. All their banks would crash, all rich people would move their wealth into the EU, the Lira would come back extremely undervalued. I really don't see how it's an option for them.
Italy's 10 year bonds are at under 2%. It's still above the rest of the EU but really, does it mean they can't finance at attractive rates in the general market? Even with ECB essentially vaccuuming up the bonds from the market? I don't really see why southern countries are kicking and screaming for corona bonds.
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On April 21 2020 20:10 warding wrote:
Italy leaving the EU would mean instant default for Italy. All their banks would crash, all rich people would move their wealth into the EU, the Lira would come back extremely undervalued. I really don't see how it's an option for them.
Italy's 10 year bonds are at under 2%. It's still above the rest of the EU but really, does it mean they can't finance at attractive rates in the general market? Even with ECB essentially vaccuuming up the bonds from the market? I don't really see why southern countries are kicking and screaming for corona bonds. Because euro bonds would allow countries like Italy to take on large additional debt without it directly effecting them because its mostly the more wealthy northern states financing it.
Italy's debt is already at 134% of GDP, they want a measure to get more money without increasing that number further.
A cynic might argue the real reason for the renewed demand for euro bonds is that they would allow high debt countries to continue spending above their means and further postpone the need for sound economic policy to reduce spending and bringing the national debt under control.
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On April 21 2020 20:10 warding wrote:
Italy leaving the EU would mean instant default for Italy. All their banks would crash, all rich people would move their wealth into the EU, the Lira would come back extremely undervalued. I really don't see how it's an option for them.
Italy's 10 year bonds are at under 2%. It's still above the rest of the EU but really, does it mean they can't finance at attractive rates in the general market? Even with ECB essentially vaccuuming up the bonds from the market? I don't really see why southern countries are kicking and screaming for corona bonds.
Instant default and all the other apocalyptic scenarios? Don't think so. Being an efficient agricultural producer gives you an edge in a supply chain breakdown. Also second highest gold reserves of all EU countries and a developed industry and service sector.
Debt to GDP suggests there's lots of inefficiency for invested capital, yes. But I don't think Italy is in a bad spot.
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On April 21 2020 20:10 warding wrote:
Italy leaving the EU would mean instant default for Italy. All their banks would crash, all rich people would move their wealth into the EU, the Lira would come back extremely undervalued. I really don't see how it's an option for them.
Italy's 10 year bonds are at under 2%. It's still above the rest of the EU but really, does it mean they can't finance at attractive rates in the general market? Even with ECB essentially vaccuuming up the bonds from the market? I don't really see why southern countries are kicking and screaming for corona bonds.
Also the Euro would drastically increase in value in that scenario, immidiately putting the German, Dutch and Austrian export driven economies in a terrible recession.
And big daddy China won't be there to stabilize the situation like in the early 2010s. China's interest in the European economy dies with the Euro's role of being a political counterweight to the dollar in the West.
None of that will happen, there will be some form of Euro bonds, they just won't be known under that name. They can just remove a bunch of criteria for access to money from the ESM, Germany saves face and Italy gets the same kind of money as from Euro bonds.
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But devaluing a currency is really easy. Just print more of it. I really don't understand how your currency drastically increasing in value can be a problem.
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On April 22 2020 00:05 Simberto wrote:
But devaluing a currency is really easy. Just print more of it. I really don't understand how your currency drastically increasing in value can be a problem.
The value of a currency is the value it has against other currencies.
By printing more of it, you devalue every unit of currency, which means not just the prices it has against other currencies, but also all your prices inside your country rise.
So yes, that way you can keep your currency cheap and your exports high. But on the cost of extreme inflation inside your country. It means you are essentially drastically reducing wages.
I don't think the German population would like that, but I could see this being a realistical political measure in such a scenario. It conserves old structures, keeps the rich rich and throws the working people under the bus, so it sounds like something rich conservatives might even advocate for out of boredom what else to do with their lives, other than messing with working people's lives.
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Italy needs to borrow to deficit spend and roll on its 134% of GDP debt. Lenders count on the fact that it's part of the Euro, subject to Eurozone rules and backed by the ECB, who has shown it will vaccuum up Euro govt bonds when needed.
If Italy leaves the Eurozone, who will lend to them?
I don't think the Euro would surge if Italy left. If anything it might devalue vs the Dollar.
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On April 22 2020 00:25 warding wrote:
Italy needs to borrow to deficit spend and roll on its 134% of GDP debt. Lenders count on the fact that it's part of the Euro, subject to Eurozone rules and backed by the ECB, who has shown it will vaccuum up Euro govt bonds when needed.
If Italy leaves the Eurozone, who will lend to them?
I don't think the Euro would surge if Italy left. If anything it might devalue vs the Dollar.
You can't have a functioning economy if there aren't deficit spenders.
While capital gets concentrated in producing countries, you need deficit spenders to keep their economies running.
Who is Germany going to sell to if no one creates new debt and holders of accumulated capital don't spend?
It is similar and related to the US-China relationship of the last decades imho.
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EPT
