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On June 25 2015 17:50 Ghostcom wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2015 17:35 maartendq wrote:On June 25 2015 16:16 Laurens wrote:
Is the question "Do you want it to happen?" or "Do you think it will happen?" I don't want it to happen but if Greece keeps insisting that beggars can actually be choosers it will happen. And when it happens it will make the current austerity look like "the good old days". I doubt the rest of EU is really going to suffer much if grexit were to happen now. A year ago it would have been terrible. Today? Not so much. EDIT: It's going to be pretty terrible to be Greek though.
I meant austerity in Greece. The rest of the EU should have enough failsafes built in right now in case of a Grexit.
Until Greece gets a government that is not afraid to push through some very unpopular but necessary reforms to undo the structural issues in its political and economical system, nothing will ever change.
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On June 25 2015 17:50 Ghostcom wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2015 17:35 maartendq wrote:On June 25 2015 16:16 Laurens wrote:
Is the question "Do you want it to happen?" or "Do you think it will happen?" I don't want it to happen but if Greece keeps insisting that beggars can actually be choosers it will happen. And when it happens it will make the current austerity look like "the good old days". I doubt the rest of EU is really going to suffer much if grexit were to happen now. A year ago it would have been terrible. Today? Not so much. EDIT: It's going to be pretty terrible to be Greek though.
It's really a matter of how much prepared you are, for Greece to exit the eurozone is very much the most sustainable way through this crisis, always was but back to 2009 certainly one of the two big parties would have survived and then it would certainly have been a hard time for greeks.
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Paul Krugman: "I’ve been staying fairly quiet on Greece, not wanting to shout Grexit in a crowded theater."
+ Show Spoiler +Breaking Greece![[image loading]](http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2015/06/25/opinion/062515krugman1/062515krugman1-blog480.png) I’ve been staying fairly quiet on Greece, not wanting to shout Grexit in a crowded theater. But given reports from the negotiations in Brussels, something must be said — namely, what do the creditors, and in particular the IMF, think they’re doing? This ought to be a negotiation about targets for the primary surplus, and then about debt relief that heads off endless future crises. And the Greek government has agreed to what are actually fairly high surplus targets, especially given the fact that the budget would be in huge primary surplus if the economy weren’t so depressed. But the creditors keep rejecting Greek proposals on the grounds that they rely too much on taxes and not enough on spending cuts. So we’re still in the business of dictating domestic policy. The supposed reason for the rejection of a tax-based response is that it will hurt growth. The obvious response is, are you kidding us? The people who utterly failed to see the damage austerity would do — see the chart, which compares the projections in the 2010 standby agreement with reality — are now lecturing others on growth? Furthermore, the growth concerns are all supply-side, in an economy surely operating at least 20 percent below capacity. Talk to IMF people and they will go on about the impossibility of dealing with Syriza, their annoyance at the grandstanding, and so on. But we’re not in high school here. And right now it’s the creditors, much more than the Greeks, who keep moving the goalposts. So what is happening? Is the goal to break Syriza? Is it to force Greece into a presumably disastrous default, to encourage the others? At this point it’s time to stop talking about “Graccident”; if Grexit happens it will be because the creditors, or at least the IMF, wanted it to happen.
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On June 25 2015 17:35 maartendq wrote:
I don't want it to happen but if Greece keeps insisting that beggars can actually be choosers it will happen.
I don't know, the Greek people and the EU are both victims of a colossal fraud. Whilst strictly speaking -if we entirely ignore justice and fairness and stick strictly with an analysis on who can fuck whom harder- we might say that Greece is begging. We might also say that it is simply asking Europe to eat a larger share of all the stolen money.
On June 25 2015 18:10 maartendq wrote:
Until Greece gets a government that is not afraid to push through some very unpopular but necessary reforms to undo the structural issues in its political and economical system, nothing will ever change.
Such as?
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On June 25 2015 21:37 accela wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2015 17:50 Ghostcom wrote:On June 25 2015 17:35 maartendq wrote:On June 25 2015 16:16 Laurens wrote:
Is the question "Do you want it to happen?" or "Do you think it will happen?" I don't want it to happen but if Greece keeps insisting that beggars can actually be choosers it will happen. And when it happens it will make the current austerity look like "the good old days". I doubt the rest of EU is really going to suffer much if grexit were to happen now. A year ago it would have been terrible. Today? Not so much. EDIT: It's going to be pretty terrible to be Greek though. It's really a matter of how much prepared you are, for Greece to exit the eurozone is very much the most sustainable way through this crisis, always was but back to 2009 certainly one of the two big parties would have survived and then it would certainly have been a hard time for greeks. - Paul Krugman: "I’ve been staying fairly quiet on Greece, not wanting to shout Grexit in a crowded theater." + Show Spoiler +Breaking GreeceI’ve been staying fairly quiet on Greece, not wanting to shout Grexit in a crowded theater. But given reports from the negotiations in Brussels, something must be said — namely, what do the creditors, and in particular the IMF, think they’re doing? This ought to be a negotiation about targets for the primary surplus, and then about debt relief that heads off endless future crises. And the Greek government has agreed to what are actually fairly high surplus targets, especially given the fact that the budget would be in huge primary surplus if the economy weren’t so depressed. But the creditors keep rejecting Greek proposals on the grounds that they rely too much on taxes and not enough on spending cuts. So we’re still in the business of dictating domestic policy. The supposed reason for the rejection of a tax-based response is that it will hurt growth. The obvious response is, are you kidding us? The people who utterly failed to see the damage austerity would do — see the chart, which compares the projections in the 2010 standby agreement with reality — are now lecturing others on growth? Furthermore, the growth concerns are all supply-side, in an economy surely operating at least 20 percent below capacity. Talk to IMF people and they will go on about the impossibility of dealing with Syriza, their annoyance at the grandstanding, and so on. But we’re not in high school here. And right now it’s the creditors, much more than the Greeks, who keep moving the goalposts. So what is happening? Is the goal to break Syriza? Is it to force Greece into a presumably disastrous default, to encourage the others? At this point it’s time to stop talking about “Graccident”; if Grexit happens it will be because the creditors, or at least the IMF, wanted it to happen.
Is the reluctance to accept Tax based solutions perhaps based on the rampant tax evasion that sparked a lot of the problems in the first place?
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On June 25 2015 21:37 accela wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2015 17:50 Ghostcom wrote:On June 25 2015 17:35 maartendq wrote:On June 25 2015 16:16 Laurens wrote:
Is the question "Do you want it to happen?" or "Do you think it will happen?" I don't want it to happen but if Greece keeps insisting that beggars can actually be choosers it will happen. And when it happens it will make the current austerity look like "the good old days". I doubt the rest of EU is really going to suffer much if grexit were to happen now. A year ago it would have been terrible. Today? Not so much. EDIT: It's going to be pretty terrible to be Greek though. It's really a matter of how much prepared you are, for Greece to exit the eurozone is very much the most sustainable way through this crisis, always was but back to 2009 certainly one of the two big parties would have survived and then it would certainly have been a hard time for greeks. -
Would you mind rewording this part? I'm having a very hard time comprehending it. It seems like you think it would have been beneficial to Greece to have exited the eurozone all the way back in 2009 but that it would have resulted in Greece retaining it's former government? And that if the average Greek simply prepares well enough for the Grexit it won't hurt them that much? I'm willing to claim that the vast majority of Greeks aren't in a position where they actually CAN prepare for the Grexit, but I could be wrong?
EDIT:
On June 25 2015 22:05 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2015 21:37 accela wrote:On June 25 2015 17:50 Ghostcom wrote:On June 25 2015 17:35 maartendq wrote:On June 25 2015 16:16 Laurens wrote:
Is the question "Do you want it to happen?" or "Do you think it will happen?" I don't want it to happen but if Greece keeps insisting that beggars can actually be choosers it will happen. And when it happens it will make the current austerity look like "the good old days". I doubt the rest of EU is really going to suffer much if grexit were to happen now. A year ago it would have been terrible. Today? Not so much. EDIT: It's going to be pretty terrible to be Greek though. It's really a matter of how much prepared you are, for Greece to exit the eurozone is very much the most sustainable way through this crisis, always was but back to 2009 certainly one of the two big parties would have survived and then it would certainly have been a hard time for greeks. - Paul Krugman: "I’ve been staying fairly quiet on Greece, not wanting to shout Grexit in a crowded theater." + Show Spoiler +Breaking GreeceI’ve been staying fairly quiet on Greece, not wanting to shout Grexit in a crowded theater. But given reports from the negotiations in Brussels, something must be said — namely, what do the creditors, and in particular the IMF, think they’re doing? This ought to be a negotiation about targets for the primary surplus, and then about debt relief that heads off endless future crises. And the Greek government has agreed to what are actually fairly high surplus targets, especially given the fact that the budget would be in huge primary surplus if the economy weren’t so depressed. But the creditors keep rejecting Greek proposals on the grounds that they rely too much on taxes and not enough on spending cuts. So we’re still in the business of dictating domestic policy. The supposed reason for the rejection of a tax-based response is that it will hurt growth. The obvious response is, are you kidding us? The people who utterly failed to see the damage austerity would do — see the chart, which compares the projections in the 2010 standby agreement with reality — are now lecturing others on growth? Furthermore, the growth concerns are all supply-side, in an economy surely operating at least 20 percent below capacity. Talk to IMF people and they will go on about the impossibility of dealing with Syriza, their annoyance at the grandstanding, and so on. But we’re not in high school here. And right now it’s the creditors, much more than the Greeks, who keep moving the goalposts. So what is happening? Is the goal to break Syriza? Is it to force Greece into a presumably disastrous default, to encourage the others? At this point it’s time to stop talking about “Graccident”; if Grexit happens it will be because the creditors, or at least the IMF, wanted it to happen. Is the reluctance to accept Tax based solutions perhaps based on the rampant tax evasion that sparked a lot of the problems in the first place?
That is the reason given by every single analyst I have read so far, so I would say "yes" 
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On June 25 2015 22:05 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2015 21:37 accela wrote:On June 25 2015 17:50 Ghostcom wrote:On June 25 2015 17:35 maartendq wrote:On June 25 2015 16:16 Laurens wrote:
Is the question "Do you want it to happen?" or "Do you think it will happen?" I don't want it to happen but if Greece keeps insisting that beggars can actually be choosers it will happen. And when it happens it will make the current austerity look like "the good old days". I doubt the rest of EU is really going to suffer much if grexit were to happen now. A year ago it would have been terrible. Today? Not so much. EDIT: It's going to be pretty terrible to be Greek though. It's really a matter of how much prepared you are, for Greece to exit the eurozone is very much the most sustainable way through this crisis, always was but back to 2009 certainly one of the two big parties would have survived and then it would certainly have been a hard time for greeks. - Paul Krugman: "I’ve been staying fairly quiet on Greece, not wanting to shout Grexit in a crowded theater." + Show Spoiler +Breaking GreeceI’ve been staying fairly quiet on Greece, not wanting to shout Grexit in a crowded theater. But given reports from the negotiations in Brussels, something must be said — namely, what do the creditors, and in particular the IMF, think they’re doing? This ought to be a negotiation about targets for the primary surplus, and then about debt relief that heads off endless future crises. And the Greek government has agreed to what are actually fairly high surplus targets, especially given the fact that the budget would be in huge primary surplus if the economy weren’t so depressed. But the creditors keep rejecting Greek proposals on the grounds that they rely too much on taxes and not enough on spending cuts. So we’re still in the business of dictating domestic policy. The supposed reason for the rejection of a tax-based response is that it will hurt growth. The obvious response is, are you kidding us? The people who utterly failed to see the damage austerity would do — see the chart, which compares the projections in the 2010 standby agreement with reality — are now lecturing others on growth? Furthermore, the growth concerns are all supply-side, in an economy surely operating at least 20 percent below capacity. Talk to IMF people and they will go on about the impossibility of dealing with Syriza, their annoyance at the grandstanding, and so on. But we’re not in high school here. And right now it’s the creditors, much more than the Greeks, who keep moving the goalposts. So what is happening? Is the goal to break Syriza? Is it to force Greece into a presumably disastrous default, to encourage the others? At this point it’s time to stop talking about “Graccident”; if Grexit happens it will be because the creditors, or at least the IMF, wanted it to happen. Is the reluctance to accept Tax based solutions perhaps based on the rampant tax evasion that sparked a lot of the problems in the first place?
Depends on what tax based solution you talking about. The EU/IMF 5 years now constantly demand higher taxes for more loans but the problem always was the collection of the taxes. But then again even the low income from taxes was only a part of the deficit.
Have you ever heard that the greek oligarchs of shipping enjoy legitimately tax exemption based on laws created by the (american sponsored) greek military dictatorship? In 2014 shipping businesses paid 80m euro in taxes while the sailors, their own workers paid 150m euros. FYI in 2014 the greek fleet got the lead from Japan with assets of more than 100billion euros.
Now you keep asking why the bakery at the next corner that is battling day after day to stay open why he is selling the bread without a receipt.
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On June 25 2015 22:08 Ghostcom wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2015 21:37 accela wrote:On June 25 2015 17:50 Ghostcom wrote:On June 25 2015 17:35 maartendq wrote:On June 25 2015 16:16 Laurens wrote:
Is the question "Do you want it to happen?" or "Do you think it will happen?" I don't want it to happen but if Greece keeps insisting that beggars can actually be choosers it will happen. And when it happens it will make the current austerity look like "the good old days". I doubt the rest of EU is really going to suffer much if grexit were to happen now. A year ago it would have been terrible. Today? Not so much. EDIT: It's going to be pretty terrible to be Greek though. It's really a matter of how much prepared you are, for Greece to exit the eurozone is very much the most sustainable way through this crisis, always was but back to 2009 certainly one of the two big parties would have survived and then it would certainly have been a hard time for greeks. - Would you mind rewording this part? I'm having a very hard time comprehending it. It seems like you think it would have been beneficial to Greece to have exited the eurozone all the way back in 2009 but that it would have resulted in Greece retaining it's former government? And that if the average Greek simply prepares well enough for the Grexit it won't hurt them that much? I'm willing to claim that the vast majority of Greeks aren't in a position where they actually CAN prepare for the Grexit, but I could be wrong?
Well that is obviously just a hypothesis for the past but anyway, in best case scenario Greece would have gone default in 2009, the two major parties namely 'New Democracy' and 'Pasok', rotten to the bone, would have been destroyed by political turmoil and after 2 or 3 years of hardships the country in a far better state than what it is now and a new leadership would have had a high chance to move on and by now things would start looking better and better.
Sadly, considering that it took for the greeks 6 years and an economically half destroyed country to abolish some of their political conformism (but still the 27% still votes for the right/ultra-right party of 'new democracy') it is safe to suspect that those parties would have survived in 2009 if Greece had gone default, so we would have one or two rotten and corrupt parties scheming to preserve their power over a wounded economy.
As for now, i'm talking about central preparations by the government. What's important is where the country will be in 10-20-30 years, of course leaving the eurozone will be hard in short term but what matters the most is to get a final solution and stop immediately this madness of kicking the can, one way or another.
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On June 25 2015 22:49 accela wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2015 22:05 Gorsameth wrote:On June 25 2015 21:37 accela wrote:On June 25 2015 17:50 Ghostcom wrote:On June 25 2015 17:35 maartendq wrote:On June 25 2015 16:16 Laurens wrote:
Is the question "Do you want it to happen?" or "Do you think it will happen?" I don't want it to happen but if Greece keeps insisting that beggars can actually be choosers it will happen. And when it happens it will make the current austerity look like "the good old days". I doubt the rest of EU is really going to suffer much if grexit were to happen now. A year ago it would have been terrible. Today? Not so much. EDIT: It's going to be pretty terrible to be Greek though. It's really a matter of how much prepared you are, for Greece to exit the eurozone is very much the most sustainable way through this crisis, always was but back to 2009 certainly one of the two big parties would have survived and then it would certainly have been a hard time for greeks. - Paul Krugman: "I’ve been staying fairly quiet on Greece, not wanting to shout Grexit in a crowded theater." + Show Spoiler +Breaking GreeceI’ve been staying fairly quiet on Greece, not wanting to shout Grexit in a crowded theater. But given reports from the negotiations in Brussels, something must be said — namely, what do the creditors, and in particular the IMF, think they’re doing? This ought to be a negotiation about targets for the primary surplus, and then about debt relief that heads off endless future crises. And the Greek government has agreed to what are actually fairly high surplus targets, especially given the fact that the budget would be in huge primary surplus if the economy weren’t so depressed. But the creditors keep rejecting Greek proposals on the grounds that they rely too much on taxes and not enough on spending cuts. So we’re still in the business of dictating domestic policy. The supposed reason for the rejection of a tax-based response is that it will hurt growth. The obvious response is, are you kidding us? The people who utterly failed to see the damage austerity would do — see the chart, which compares the projections in the 2010 standby agreement with reality — are now lecturing others on growth? Furthermore, the growth concerns are all supply-side, in an economy surely operating at least 20 percent below capacity. Talk to IMF people and they will go on about the impossibility of dealing with Syriza, their annoyance at the grandstanding, and so on. But we’re not in high school here. And right now it’s the creditors, much more than the Greeks, who keep moving the goalposts. So what is happening? Is the goal to break Syriza? Is it to force Greece into a presumably disastrous default, to encourage the others? At this point it’s time to stop talking about “Graccident”; if Grexit happens it will be because the creditors, or at least the IMF, wanted it to happen. Is the reluctance to accept Tax based solutions perhaps based on the rampant tax evasion that sparked a lot of the problems in the first place? Depends on what tax based solution you talking about. The EU/IMF 5 years now constantly demand higher taxes for more loans but the problem always was the collection of the taxes. But then again even the low income from taxes was only a part of the deficit. Have you ever heard that the greek oligarchs of shipping enjoy legitimately tax exemption based on laws created by the (american sponsored) greek military dictatorship? In 2014 shipping businesses paid 80m euro in taxes while the sailors, their own workers paid 150m euros. FYI in 2014 the greek fleet got the lead from Japan with assets of more than 100billion euros. Now you keep asking why the bakery at the next corner that is battling day after day to stay open why he is selling the bread without a receipt.
The reason they keep asking for higher taxes is because they want Greece to be able to pay its own way instead of having to depend on external funding all the time.
Greece actually has choices, one of which would include making some very powerful people/voters very unhappy, which is probably why not a single Greek government will ever have the guts to actually and properly tax the shipping industry and the Church, or to clean out the mess that is Greece's public administration. Another one would be to scale back social security and welfare to a level it can actually afford, but that would probably have desastrous consequences for the population.
The hard truth is that no matter what happens, or no matter what Tsipras & Co or the Troika decide, the road to recovery for Greece will be very long and very arduous. I strongly believe, however, that it will be more bearable in the Eurozone than as an independent but fully sovereign country.
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On June 26 2015 00:00 maartendq wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2015 22:49 accela wrote:On June 25 2015 22:05 Gorsameth wrote:On June 25 2015 21:37 accela wrote:On June 25 2015 17:50 Ghostcom wrote:On June 25 2015 17:35 maartendq wrote:On June 25 2015 16:16 Laurens wrote:
Is the question "Do you want it to happen?" or "Do you think it will happen?" I don't want it to happen but if Greece keeps insisting that beggars can actually be choosers it will happen. And when it happens it will make the current austerity look like "the good old days". I doubt the rest of EU is really going to suffer much if grexit were to happen now. A year ago it would have been terrible. Today? Not so much. EDIT: It's going to be pretty terrible to be Greek though. It's really a matter of how much prepared you are, for Greece to exit the eurozone is very much the most sustainable way through this crisis, always was but back to 2009 certainly one of the two big parties would have survived and then it would certainly have been a hard time for greeks. - Paul Krugman: "I’ve been staying fairly quiet on Greece, not wanting to shout Grexit in a crowded theater." + Show Spoiler +Breaking GreeceI’ve been staying fairly quiet on Greece, not wanting to shout Grexit in a crowded theater. But given reports from the negotiations in Brussels, something must be said — namely, what do the creditors, and in particular the IMF, think they’re doing? This ought to be a negotiation about targets for the primary surplus, and then about debt relief that heads off endless future crises. And the Greek government has agreed to what are actually fairly high surplus targets, especially given the fact that the budget would be in huge primary surplus if the economy weren’t so depressed. But the creditors keep rejecting Greek proposals on the grounds that they rely too much on taxes and not enough on spending cuts. So we’re still in the business of dictating domestic policy. The supposed reason for the rejection of a tax-based response is that it will hurt growth. The obvious response is, are you kidding us? The people who utterly failed to see the damage austerity would do — see the chart, which compares the projections in the 2010 standby agreement with reality — are now lecturing others on growth? Furthermore, the growth concerns are all supply-side, in an economy surely operating at least 20 percent below capacity. Talk to IMF people and they will go on about the impossibility of dealing with Syriza, their annoyance at the grandstanding, and so on. But we’re not in high school here. And right now it’s the creditors, much more than the Greeks, who keep moving the goalposts. So what is happening? Is the goal to break Syriza? Is it to force Greece into a presumably disastrous default, to encourage the others? At this point it’s time to stop talking about “Graccident”; if Grexit happens it will be because the creditors, or at least the IMF, wanted it to happen. Is the reluctance to accept Tax based solutions perhaps based on the rampant tax evasion that sparked a lot of the problems in the first place? Depends on what tax based solution you talking about. The EU/IMF 5 years now constantly demand higher taxes for more loans but the problem always was the collection of the taxes. But then again even the low income from taxes was only a part of the deficit. Have you ever heard that the greek oligarchs of shipping enjoy legitimately tax exemption based on laws created by the (american sponsored) greek military dictatorship? In 2014 shipping businesses paid 80m euro in taxes while the sailors, their own workers paid 150m euros. FYI in 2014 the greek fleet got the lead from Japan with assets of more than 100billion euros. Now you keep asking why the bakery at the next corner that is battling day after day to stay open why he is selling the bread without a receipt. The reason they keep asking for higher taxes is because they want Greece to be able to pay its own way instead of having to depend on external funding all the time. Greece actually has choices, one of which would include making some very powerful people/voters very unhappy, which is probably why not a single Greek government will ever have the guts to actually and properly tax the shipping industry and the Church, or to clean out the mess that is Greece's public administration. Another one would be to scale back social security and welfare to a level it can actually afford, but that would probably have desastrous consequences for the population. The hard truth is that no matter what happens, or no matter what Tsipras & Co or the Troika decide, the road to recovery for Greece will be very long and very arduous. I strongly believe, however, that it will be more bearable in the Eurozone than as an independent but fully sovereign country.
Creditors aren't asking for higher taxes, they want cuts while Tsipras wants taxes.
And Creditors probably dont want taxes because no one pays them anyway
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On June 26 2015 00:00 maartendq wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2015 22:49 accela wrote:On June 25 2015 22:05 Gorsameth wrote:On June 25 2015 21:37 accela wrote:On June 25 2015 17:50 Ghostcom wrote:On June 25 2015 17:35 maartendq wrote:On June 25 2015 16:16 Laurens wrote:
Is the question "Do you want it to happen?" or "Do you think it will happen?" I don't want it to happen but if Greece keeps insisting that beggars can actually be choosers it will happen. And when it happens it will make the current austerity look like "the good old days". I doubt the rest of EU is really going to suffer much if grexit were to happen now. A year ago it would have been terrible. Today? Not so much. EDIT: It's going to be pretty terrible to be Greek though. It's really a matter of how much prepared you are, for Greece to exit the eurozone is very much the most sustainable way through this crisis, always was but back to 2009 certainly one of the two big parties would have survived and then it would certainly have been a hard time for greeks. - Paul Krugman: "I’ve been staying fairly quiet on Greece, not wanting to shout Grexit in a crowded theater." + Show Spoiler +Breaking GreeceI’ve been staying fairly quiet on Greece, not wanting to shout Grexit in a crowded theater. But given reports from the negotiations in Brussels, something must be said — namely, what do the creditors, and in particular the IMF, think they’re doing? This ought to be a negotiation about targets for the primary surplus, and then about debt relief that heads off endless future crises. And the Greek government has agreed to what are actually fairly high surplus targets, especially given the fact that the budget would be in huge primary surplus if the economy weren’t so depressed. But the creditors keep rejecting Greek proposals on the grounds that they rely too much on taxes and not enough on spending cuts. So we’re still in the business of dictating domestic policy. The supposed reason for the rejection of a tax-based response is that it will hurt growth. The obvious response is, are you kidding us? The people who utterly failed to see the damage austerity would do — see the chart, which compares the projections in the 2010 standby agreement with reality — are now lecturing others on growth? Furthermore, the growth concerns are all supply-side, in an economy surely operating at least 20 percent below capacity. Talk to IMF people and they will go on about the impossibility of dealing with Syriza, their annoyance at the grandstanding, and so on. But we’re not in high school here. And right now it’s the creditors, much more than the Greeks, who keep moving the goalposts. So what is happening? Is the goal to break Syriza? Is it to force Greece into a presumably disastrous default, to encourage the others? At this point it’s time to stop talking about “Graccident”; if Grexit happens it will be because the creditors, or at least the IMF, wanted it to happen. Is the reluctance to accept Tax based solutions perhaps based on the rampant tax evasion that sparked a lot of the problems in the first place? Depends on what tax based solution you talking about. The EU/IMF 5 years now constantly demand higher taxes for more loans but the problem always was the collection of the taxes. But then again even the low income from taxes was only a part of the deficit. Have you ever heard that the greek oligarchs of shipping enjoy legitimately tax exemption based on laws created by the (american sponsored) greek military dictatorship? In 2014 shipping businesses paid 80m euro in taxes while the sailors, their own workers paid 150m euros. FYI in 2014 the greek fleet got the lead from Japan with assets of more than 100billion euros. Now you keep asking why the bakery at the next corner that is battling day after day to stay open why he is selling the bread without a receipt. The reason they keep asking for higher taxes is because they want Greece to be able to pay its own way instead of having to depend on external funding all the time. Greece actually has choices, one of which would include making some very powerful people/voters very unhappy, which is probably why not a single Greek government will ever have the guts to actually and properly tax the shipping industry and the Church, or to clean out the mess that is Greece's public administration. Another one would be to scale back social security and welfare to a level it can actually afford, but that would probably have desastrous consequences for the population. The hard truth is that no matter what happens, or no matter what Tsipras & Co or the Troika decide, the road to recovery for Greece will be very long and very arduous. I strongly believe, however, that it will be more bearable in the Eurozone than as an independent but fully sovereign country.
First point, do you know what primary surplus means? When a country has a primary surplus means that welfare, social security, wages etc, all public services in general are economically supported without loans but only from what the government collects from the taxes. Greece already got that in the worst way it could happen but does independently pay its own needs with no loans. If that wasn't enough, the current greek government have propose a system that will automatically cut spendings if there is a possibility for returning back to deficit.
As for the taxes, exactly because it's not a matter of how much but how to collect them, Varoufakis' proposition was to have a 3% discount when using a credit card while doing a rebalance to the totally unequal VAT system. I think by now we know very well that thinking just a little out of the box is not one of EU's strengths. Proposition denied and by now both sides negotiate how much the VAT will be increased for the food and even for the hotel accommodation that would obviously hurt tourism. Lenders demand everything to calculated with the high rate of 23%.
Second point, have you even though why oh why the EU/IMF/ECB all this years now that have a total control over this country's economy haven't force the government (not just hostile Syriza but even (ultra)right wing New Democracy that troika was in total accordance) to tax the shipping oligarchs, the church, the media groups and so on. I want you to be absolutely sure that they are completely capable to do exactly that, they did it with medical care, they did it with education funds, they did it with wages, they did it with pensions (and doing it again), they did it with labor rights and so many other deforms.
So, from all that i think it is obvious that Greece should immediately exit eurozone. That doesn't mean that the separation must necessary be hostile. A concurrent plan would make things easier for both sides.
I really don't know what short of contagion prevention system EU/ECB have but i think it's safe to guess that if there was one they would use it already as a tool to negotiate. As long you see no numbers and scripts i think you should better think the worst instead of just taking their word as it is. For everyone's best interest both sides should friendly agree to a common plan of letting this country going away.
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So, from all that i think it is obvious that Greece should immediately exit eurozone. That doesn't mean that the separation must necessary be hostile. A concurrent plan would make things easier for both sides.
Care to elaborate, or is that just nice wording for "we wanna leave, but still have access to markets and stuff"?
I don't really see any benefits for other countries, especially considering that it's basically spitting in the face of those countries who went down the hard path, reformed and are now on the way up again. If you can just leave willy nilly while still getting benefits.. Nah.
I certainly hope not. If you leave, you leave. There's nothing hostile - there's just no catering greece either.
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If you're wondering about taxation vs cuts in Greece (and what the hell is going on in general):
Greek govt proposed, among other measures, levying a one-off 12% tax on corporate profits over 500k euros to make up this year's funding gap - a very similar tax was also levied back in 2010, then as a demand of the troika - of course it was quite collectable since corporations with profits over 500k aren't exactly dime a dozen in Greece and generally do pay their taxes (they avoid taxes as much as possible, as does any other corp in the world, but in a lawful manner). This would yield 900 million this year according to the Greek govt.
IMF declined this measure (not the Commission or the ECB). Not because it didn't think the tax collectable, since it simply would've set a lower numerical target on it if that were the case. Just denied it, vaguely citing recessionary effects (again, this is corporate profits we're talking about, and businesses that haven't already left Greece which at this point basically means they can't leave) bundled with the other tax hikes, pension contribution hikes etc. Instead IMF's proposal was to cut pensions some more, raise VAT some more and so on. IMF set lower numbers on the other tax increases, did not reject them.
Tsipras talked about IMF either simply wanting out (thus no deal no matter what, keep making stuff up in the meantime) or playing to special interests. In light of the above, I lean towards the second option. IMF may have a point about pension contribution hikes and other tax hikes that represent a permanent added weight on Greek businesses, and thus on growth, but a one-off on the biggest profit makers, when the country is in dire straits and everyone should pitch in to the best of their abilities?
edit: Don't know if whatever agreement goes through in the end will include this, but I'll just leave my opinion here: If this 900mln isn't a part of the deal, oligarchs win and Syriza is totally useless as a force of change in Greece (which I'm sure everyone agrees is sorely needed). I don't give two fucks about a 6% cut in pensions, I do care that my family will have to come up with ~1k per year extra for food (VAT increases are largely centered on food products, you see) but I care much more about someone, potentially, fixing real problems - and cronyism is at the top of the list. I'll end up voting for the REAL far left parties if this happens and if more do the same, you'll see some real action then.
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Regarding the alleged primary surplus. having seen this today it seems the primary surplus is owed to creative accounting measures more than anything else. Overdue private sector loans have gone up from 3 to 4 billion over the course of just four months.
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On June 26 2015 00:05 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2015 00:00 maartendq wrote:On June 25 2015 22:49 accela wrote:On June 25 2015 22:05 Gorsameth wrote:On June 25 2015 21:37 accela wrote:On June 25 2015 17:50 Ghostcom wrote:On June 25 2015 17:35 maartendq wrote:On June 25 2015 16:16 Laurens wrote:
Is the question "Do you want it to happen?" or "Do you think it will happen?" I don't want it to happen but if Greece keeps insisting that beggars can actually be choosers it will happen. And when it happens it will make the current austerity look like "the good old days". I doubt the rest of EU is really going to suffer much if grexit were to happen now. A year ago it would have been terrible. Today? Not so much. EDIT: It's going to be pretty terrible to be Greek though. It's really a matter of how much prepared you are, for Greece to exit the eurozone is very much the most sustainable way through this crisis, always was but back to 2009 certainly one of the two big parties would have survived and then it would certainly have been a hard time for greeks. - Paul Krugman: "I’ve been staying fairly quiet on Greece, not wanting to shout Grexit in a crowded theater." + Show Spoiler +Breaking GreeceI’ve been staying fairly quiet on Greece, not wanting to shout Grexit in a crowded theater. But given reports from the negotiations in Brussels, something must be said — namely, what do the creditors, and in particular the IMF, think they’re doing? This ought to be a negotiation about targets for the primary surplus, and then about debt relief that heads off endless future crises. And the Greek government has agreed to what are actually fairly high surplus targets, especially given the fact that the budget would be in huge primary surplus if the economy weren’t so depressed. But the creditors keep rejecting Greek proposals on the grounds that they rely too much on taxes and not enough on spending cuts. So we’re still in the business of dictating domestic policy. The supposed reason for the rejection of a tax-based response is that it will hurt growth. The obvious response is, are you kidding us? The people who utterly failed to see the damage austerity would do — see the chart, which compares the projections in the 2010 standby agreement with reality — are now lecturing others on growth? Furthermore, the growth concerns are all supply-side, in an economy surely operating at least 20 percent below capacity. Talk to IMF people and they will go on about the impossibility of dealing with Syriza, their annoyance at the grandstanding, and so on. But we’re not in high school here. And right now it’s the creditors, much more than the Greeks, who keep moving the goalposts. So what is happening? Is the goal to break Syriza? Is it to force Greece into a presumably disastrous default, to encourage the others? At this point it’s time to stop talking about “Graccident”; if Grexit happens it will be because the creditors, or at least the IMF, wanted it to happen. Is the reluctance to accept Tax based solutions perhaps based on the rampant tax evasion that sparked a lot of the problems in the first place? Depends on what tax based solution you talking about. The EU/IMF 5 years now constantly demand higher taxes for more loans but the problem always was the collection of the taxes. But then again even the low income from taxes was only a part of the deficit. Have you ever heard that the greek oligarchs of shipping enjoy legitimately tax exemption based on laws created by the (american sponsored) greek military dictatorship? In 2014 shipping businesses paid 80m euro in taxes while the sailors, their own workers paid 150m euros. FYI in 2014 the greek fleet got the lead from Japan with assets of more than 100billion euros. Now you keep asking why the bakery at the next corner that is battling day after day to stay open why he is selling the bread without a receipt. The reason they keep asking for higher taxes is because they want Greece to be able to pay its own way instead of having to depend on external funding all the time. Greece actually has choices, one of which would include making some very powerful people/voters very unhappy, which is probably why not a single Greek government will ever have the guts to actually and properly tax the shipping industry and the Church, or to clean out the mess that is Greece's public administration. Another one would be to scale back social security and welfare to a level it can actually afford, but that would probably have desastrous consequences for the population. The hard truth is that no matter what happens, or no matter what Tsipras & Co or the Troika decide, the road to recovery for Greece will be very long and very arduous. I strongly believe, however, that it will be more bearable in the Eurozone than as an independent but fully sovereign country. Creditors aren't asking for higher taxes, they want cuts while Tsipras wants taxes. And Creditors probably dont want taxes because no one pays them anyway
Its ridiculous tbh,greece should have the right to make their own policys but the creditors are completely taking over. Greece has lost its autonomy,its occupied country now. Foreign financial forces are making the laws.
The americanisation of Europe will end in a huge human disaster and there is nothing to stop it. Within 10-20 years Europe will be similar to the usa in terms of poverty,social security,power and control of corporations/financial sector of the government,crime levels and financial inequity. But Europe is not usa and I doubt Europe will endure this,we are to spoiled to fall back that far. You can see with Greece now,the population wont go with it.
Germany is only country efficient enough to be able to afford current welfare in future,the Netherlands is already doubtfull and everyone else will drop down far.
I do realize that many americans see America as the dream land,many people from 3rd and 2nd world countries do as well, and for all those people America is indeed the promised land as its better or at least equall as where they came from.
But only few people in Europe see America like that,only for the very rich and succesfull people would the americanisation be a step forward. For the far majority of the population the americanisation of Europe will be a big step backwards in living conditions and I wonder if that will fly without war.
So ya, all in all I am pretty pessimistic about the future but I guess it was bound to happen. I am an older person so it wont hit me that hard but I am pessimistic for the generation growing up now in Europe.
/ramblings
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On June 26 2015 10:19 Rassy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2015 00:05 Gorsameth wrote:On June 26 2015 00:00 maartendq wrote:On June 25 2015 22:49 accela wrote:On June 25 2015 22:05 Gorsameth wrote:On June 25 2015 21:37 accela wrote:On June 25 2015 17:50 Ghostcom wrote:On June 25 2015 17:35 maartendq wrote:On June 25 2015 16:16 Laurens wrote:
Is the question "Do you want it to happen?" or "Do you think it will happen?" I don't want it to happen but if Greece keeps insisting that beggars can actually be choosers it will happen. And when it happens it will make the current austerity look like "the good old days". I doubt the rest of EU is really going to suffer much if grexit were to happen now. A year ago it would have been terrible. Today? Not so much. EDIT: It's going to be pretty terrible to be Greek though. It's really a matter of how much prepared you are, for Greece to exit the eurozone is very much the most sustainable way through this crisis, always was but back to 2009 certainly one of the two big parties would have survived and then it would certainly have been a hard time for greeks. - Paul Krugman: "I’ve been staying fairly quiet on Greece, not wanting to shout Grexit in a crowded theater." + Show Spoiler +Breaking GreeceI’ve been staying fairly quiet on Greece, not wanting to shout Grexit in a crowded theater. But given reports from the negotiations in Brussels, something must be said — namely, what do the creditors, and in particular the IMF, think they’re doing? This ought to be a negotiation about targets for the primary surplus, and then about debt relief that heads off endless future crises. And the Greek government has agreed to what are actually fairly high surplus targets, especially given the fact that the budget would be in huge primary surplus if the economy weren’t so depressed. But the creditors keep rejecting Greek proposals on the grounds that they rely too much on taxes and not enough on spending cuts. So we’re still in the business of dictating domestic policy. The supposed reason for the rejection of a tax-based response is that it will hurt growth. The obvious response is, are you kidding us? The people who utterly failed to see the damage austerity would do — see the chart, which compares the projections in the 2010 standby agreement with reality — are now lecturing others on growth? Furthermore, the growth concerns are all supply-side, in an economy surely operating at least 20 percent below capacity. Talk to IMF people and they will go on about the impossibility of dealing with Syriza, their annoyance at the grandstanding, and so on. But we’re not in high school here. And right now it’s the creditors, much more than the Greeks, who keep moving the goalposts. So what is happening? Is the goal to break Syriza? Is it to force Greece into a presumably disastrous default, to encourage the others? At this point it’s time to stop talking about “Graccident”; if Grexit happens it will be because the creditors, or at least the IMF, wanted it to happen. Is the reluctance to accept Tax based solutions perhaps based on the rampant tax evasion that sparked a lot of the problems in the first place? Depends on what tax based solution you talking about. The EU/IMF 5 years now constantly demand higher taxes for more loans but the problem always was the collection of the taxes. But then again even the low income from taxes was only a part of the deficit. Have you ever heard that the greek oligarchs of shipping enjoy legitimately tax exemption based on laws created by the (american sponsored) greek military dictatorship? In 2014 shipping businesses paid 80m euro in taxes while the sailors, their own workers paid 150m euros. FYI in 2014 the greek fleet got the lead from Japan with assets of more than 100billion euros. Now you keep asking why the bakery at the next corner that is battling day after day to stay open why he is selling the bread without a receipt. The reason they keep asking for higher taxes is because they want Greece to be able to pay its own way instead of having to depend on external funding all the time. Greece actually has choices, one of which would include making some very powerful people/voters very unhappy, which is probably why not a single Greek government will ever have the guts to actually and properly tax the shipping industry and the Church, or to clean out the mess that is Greece's public administration. Another one would be to scale back social security and welfare to a level it can actually afford, but that would probably have desastrous consequences for the population. The hard truth is that no matter what happens, or no matter what Tsipras & Co or the Troika decide, the road to recovery for Greece will be very long and very arduous. I strongly believe, however, that it will be more bearable in the Eurozone than as an independent but fully sovereign country. Creditors aren't asking for higher taxes, they want cuts while Tsipras wants taxes. And Creditors probably dont want taxes because no one pays them anyway Its ridiculous tbh,greece should have the right to make their own policys but the creditors are completely taking over. Greece has lost its autonomy,its occupied country now. Foreign financial forces are making the laws. The americanisation of Europe will end in a huge human disaster and there is nothing to stop it. Within 10-20 years Europe will be similar to the usa in terms of poverty,social security,power and control of corporations/financial sector of the government,crime levels and financial inequity. But Europe is not usa and I doubt Europe will endure this,we are to spoiled to fall back that far. You can see with Greece now,the population wont go with it. Germany is only country efficient enough to be able to afford current welfare in future,the Netherlands is already doubtfull and everyone else will drop down far. I do realize that many americans see America as the dream land,many people from 3rd and 2nd world countries do as well, and for all those people America is indeed the promised land as its better or at least equall as where they came from. But only few people in Europe see America like that,only for the very rich and succesfull people would the americanisation be a step forward. For the far majority of the population the americanisation of Europe will be a big step backwards in living conditions and I wonder if that will fly without war. So ya, all in all I am pretty pessimistic about the future but I guess it was bound to happen. I am an older person so it wont hit me that hard but I am pessimistic for the generation growing up now in Europe. /ramblings
Correct me if I'm wrong but Greece can still make their own policies per se, it's just that they have lenders that want their money and the lenders are trying to ensure that they do in fact receive that money. Greece does not need to bargain with the lenders, they could even tell the lenders to fuck off, this would just be very bad for their economy. Greece found itself in this situation through a combination of unfortunate events, large debts, and corruption. Two of these issues could have been prevented or lessened by administrations throughout the years, but they were not, and now Greece must deal with the consequences.
I don't really understand why you're saying this is like Americanization at all, because situations similar to this (as far as I know) have never even happened in the US; also, lenders seeking repayment is not at all a strictly American phenomenon.
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No this is not americanisation,i have to agree with that. That part was just a more or less random ramble about something that I find a bad development for Europe.
The immense influence that financial institutions have on politics is something relatively new for Europe,and it is something that I find to be characteristic for America. That's why I did use the term but my post was not to clear.
In Europe the power was relatively small,at least it felt that way till around 2008. Maybe because it was fragmented till the euro came.
Now all that power got combined while the political power didn't get combined. We have this power house ecb that even the germans cant control anymore and then we have all the different political parties with different interest in the European parliament which does not have that much power to begin with. Then there is also all the goverments of all the individual states. I can understand why they dont stand a change against the ecb who did combine the power of all the single central banks in a very efficient way.
Its not neccesarely a bad thing,bankers are good with money but I do find it a risky situation.
I fear that the ecb will act more and more in the interest of the big financial institutions and less and less in the interest of the civil population and what elected politicians would like to see.
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On June 26 2015 06:52 m4ini wrote:Show nested quote +So, from all that i think it is obvious that Greece should immediately exit eurozone. That doesn't mean that the separation must necessary be hostile. A concurrent plan would make things easier for both sides. Care to elaborate, or is that just nice wording for "we wanna leave, but still have access to markets and stuff"? I don't really see any benefits for other countries, especially considering that it's basically spitting in the face of those countries who went down the hard path, reformed and are now on the way up again. If you can just leave willy nilly while still getting benefits.. Nah. I certainly hope not. If you leave, you leave. There's nothing hostile - there's just no catering greece either.
Well obviously if we leave, we leave. That's final. I more talking about a smooth transition for both sides. For example Greece after leaving eurozone will certainly have to impose a big haircut to its debt to make it sustainable, european lenders could have a say about that, different countries are creditors of different amount of loans, ECB also has some claim, for IMF nobody really cares much or at all if they could just to dig a hole and jump in it we won't miss it neither many more other countries.
For the other countries that complied to the "reforms" i hope they do well. The thing is that IMF and its policies is not something new. There are many many countries out there that followed IMFs guideline, most of them managed to kick them out of their countries, some of them "went down the hard path" and after decades they enjoy huge amounts of poverty, great inequality and a total destruction of the social web. Greece does not wish to be one more IMF's success story, Greece already did far more "reforms" than Portugal and Ireland so it's not a matter that the previous ultraright wing government didn't try, they tried a lot and the consequences you see them all over you, destruction of medical care, education, wages, labour and civil rights, privatisations, oligarchs sharing the pie with EU's blessings.
If Portugal, Ireland, Cyprus, Italy, Spain wish to stay with their own "reforms" for the decades to come i wish them the best, Greece after a democratic decision does not accept it and you should be gentlemen and also wish us good luck.
+ Show Spoiler +
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On June 26 2015 08:58 Taguchi wrote:
If you're wondering about taxation vs cuts in Greece (and what the hell is going on in general):
Greek govt proposed, among other measures, levying a one-off 12% tax on corporate profits over 500k euros to make up this year's funding gap - a very similar tax was also levied back in 2010, then as a demand of the troika - of course it was quite collectable since corporations with profits over 500k aren't exactly dime a dozen in Greece and generally do pay their taxes (they avoid taxes as much as possible, as does any other corp in the world, but in a lawful manner). This would yield 900 million this year according to the Greek govt.
IMF declined this measure (not the Commission or the ECB). Not because it didn't think the tax collectable, since it simply would've set a lower numerical target on it if that were the case. Just denied it, vaguely citing recessionary effects (again, this is corporate profits we're talking about, and businesses that haven't already left Greece which at this point basically means they can't leave) bundled with the other tax hikes, pension contribution hikes etc. Instead IMF's proposal was to cut pensions some more, raise VAT some more and so on. IMF set lower numbers on the other tax increases, did not reject them.
Tsipras talked about IMF either simply wanting out (thus no deal no matter what, keep making stuff up in the meantime) or playing to special interests. In light of the above, I lean towards the second option. IMF may have a point about pension contribution hikes and other tax hikes that represent a permanent added weight on Greek businesses, and thus on growth, but a one-off on the biggest profit makers, when the country is in dire straits and everyone should pitch in to the best of their abilities?
edit: Don't know if whatever agreement goes through in the end will include this, but I'll just leave my opinion here: If this 900mln isn't a part of the deal, oligarchs win and Syriza is totally useless as a force of change in Greece (which I'm sure everyone agrees is sorely needed). I don't give two fucks about a 6% cut in pensions, I do care that my family will have to come up with ~1k per year extra for food (VAT increases are largely centered on food products, you see) but I care much more about someone, potentially, fixing real problems - and cronyism is at the top of the list. I'll end up voting for the REAL far left parties if this happens and if more do the same, you'll see some real action then.
Source for that? There has been a lot of bullshit going around about Greek negotiations. With Greece claiming one thing and the troika denying it and vice versa.
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On June 26 2015 18:04 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On June 26 2015 08:58 Taguchi wrote:
If you're wondering about taxation vs cuts in Greece (and what the hell is going on in general):
Greek govt proposed, among other measures, levying a one-off 12% tax on corporate profits over 500k euros to make up this year's funding gap - a very similar tax was also levied back in 2010, then as a demand of the troika - of course it was quite collectable since corporations with profits over 500k aren't exactly dime a dozen in Greece and generally do pay their taxes (they avoid taxes as much as possible, as does any other corp in the world, but in a lawful manner). This would yield 900 million this year according to the Greek govt.
IMF declined this measure (not the Commission or the ECB). Not because it didn't think the tax collectable, since it simply would've set a lower numerical target on it if that were the case. Just denied it, vaguely citing recessionary effects (again, this is corporate profits we're talking about, and businesses that haven't already left Greece which at this point basically means they can't leave) bundled with the other tax hikes, pension contribution hikes etc. Instead IMF's proposal was to cut pensions some more, raise VAT some more and so on. IMF set lower numbers on the other tax increases, did not reject them.
Tsipras talked about IMF either simply wanting out (thus no deal no matter what, keep making stuff up in the meantime) or playing to special interests. In light of the above, I lean towards the second option. IMF may have a point about pension contribution hikes and other tax hikes that represent a permanent added weight on Greek businesses, and thus on growth, but a one-off on the biggest profit makers, when the country is in dire straits and everyone should pitch in to the best of their abilities?
edit: Don't know if whatever agreement goes through in the end will include this, but I'll just leave my opinion here: If this 900mln isn't a part of the deal, oligarchs win and Syriza is totally useless as a force of change in Greece (which I'm sure everyone agrees is sorely needed). I don't give two fucks about a 6% cut in pensions, I do care that my family will have to come up with ~1k per year extra for food (VAT increases are largely centered on food products, you see) but I care much more about someone, potentially, fixing real problems - and cronyism is at the top of the list. I'll end up voting for the REAL far left parties if this happens and if more do the same, you'll see some real action then. Source for that? There has been a lot of bullshit going around about Greek negotiations. With Greece claiming one thing and the troika denying it and vice versa.
It's brazen hypocrisy for IMF, given their catastrophic underestimation of the destructive impact of austerity, to be complaining about the recessionary impact of tax hikes, and demanding pension cuts instead (likely more recessionary).
As Matt O'Brien put it, this is like asking someone to commit suicide but then complaining about how they do it.
Peter Spiegel is the person to follow for news about the Greece negotiations.
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EPT![[image loading]](https://greekleftreview.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/image.jpg)
