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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 124

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
Rassy
Profile Joined August 2010
Netherlands2308 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-06-26 12:45:54
June 26 2015 12:44 GMT
#2461
Playing it smart,passing the problem on to the german (and others) parliament who has to vote on it Monday.
Don't think Germany wants to agree with this but voting NO and being seen as responsible for blowing up the eu is not very appealing either.
Greece seems to agree with this? at least I didn't hear anything that indicates they would not.
Taguchi
Profile Joined February 2003
Greece1575 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-06-26 22:14:33
June 26 2015 21:48 GMT
#2462
Oh I am loving this. Referendum in a week, theoretically about tomorrow's Eurogroup agreement. Creditors reportedly 'shocked'. No doubt Tsipras will support the agreement... if it's a good one. Now THIS is high stakes for creditors, no more idiotic arguments about hotel VAT deciding a nation's fate.

edit: Tsipras claimed ultimatum deal issued by creditors. That deal will be put up for acceptance/rejection by referendum. Syriza supports a NO vote. No clue what happens after either a 'yes' or 'no' vote frankly; yes means elections (but no way will people vote for crooks again...), no means grexit? But ministers claiming Euro exit not up for discussion. Mind blown~

On June 26 2015 18:04 RvB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 26 2015 08:58 Taguchi wrote:
If you're wondering about taxation vs cuts in Greece (and what the hell is going on in general):

Greek govt proposed, among other measures, levying a one-off 12% tax on corporate profits over 500k euros to make up this year's funding gap - a very similar tax was also levied back in 2010, then as a demand of the troika - of course it was quite collectable since corporations with profits over 500k aren't exactly dime a dozen in Greece and generally do pay their taxes (they avoid taxes as much as possible, as does any other corp in the world, but in a lawful manner). This would yield 900 million this year according to the Greek govt.

IMF declined this measure (not the Commission or the ECB). Not because it didn't think the tax collectable, since it simply would've set a lower numerical target on it if that were the case. Just denied it, vaguely citing recessionary effects (again, this is corporate profits we're talking about, and businesses that haven't already left Greece which at this point basically means they can't leave) bundled with the other tax hikes, pension contribution hikes etc. Instead IMF's proposal was to cut pensions some more, raise VAT some more and so on. IMF set lower numbers on the other tax increases, did not reject them.

Tsipras talked about IMF either simply wanting out (thus no deal no matter what, keep making stuff up in the meantime) or playing to special interests. In light of the above, I lean towards the second option. IMF may have a point about pension contribution hikes and other tax hikes that represent a permanent added weight on Greek businesses, and thus on growth, but a one-off on the biggest profit makers, when the country is in dire straits and everyone should pitch in to the best of their abilities?

edit: Don't know if whatever agreement goes through in the end will include this, but I'll just leave my opinion here: If this 900mln isn't a part of the deal, oligarchs win and Syriza is totally useless as a force of change in Greece (which I'm sure everyone agrees is sorely needed). I don't give two fucks about a 6% cut in pensions, I do care that my family will have to come up with ~1k per year extra for food (VAT increases are largely centered on food products, you see) but I care much more about someone, potentially, fixing real problems - and cronyism is at the top of the list. I'll end up voting for the REAL far left parties if this happens and if more do the same, you'll see some real action then.

Source for that? There has been a lot of bullshit going around about Greek negotiations. With Greece claiming one thing and the troika denying it and vice versa.


http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/06/24/2132849/in-which-red-lines-meet-red-ink/
Great minds might think alike, but fastest hands rule the day~
Rassy
Profile Joined August 2010
Netherlands2308 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-06-26 22:15:19
June 26 2015 22:13 GMT
#2463
Hmm I was wrong,thought this plan was good for Greece but guess not.
A referendum, that will be hilarious. Is there time for a referendum and counting all the votes before Tuesday?
Let alone time to inform the public over the issue at hand so they can make an educated vote?
It seems obvious how the population will vote (NO!) but in election anything can happen and maybe people get scared now that it is so close.

High stakes indeed,this wont end well.
Taguchi
Profile Joined February 2003
Greece1575 Posts
June 26 2015 22:16 GMT
#2464
On June 27 2015 07:13 Rassy wrote:
Hmm I was wrong,thought this plan was good for Greece but guess not.
A referendum, that will be hilarious. Is there time for a referendum and counting all the votes before Tuesday?
Let alone time to inform the public over the issue at hand so they can make an educated vote?
It seems obvious how the population will vote (NO!) but in election anything can happen and maybe people get scared now that it is so close.

High stakes indeed,this wont end well.


Polls suggest a victory for YES. However, propaganda plays a major role in such cases so... doubt anyone can tell. We don't even know what tomorrow's Eurogroup brings, or whether EU will accept the result of the referendum (I mean, they pay lip service to democracy but... yeah).
Great minds might think alike, but fastest hands rule the day~
Rassy
Profile Joined August 2010
Netherlands2308 Posts
June 26 2015 22:25 GMT
#2465
75% supports Greece staying in euro and 60% supports shiriza government I read in a poll.
But people will have to vote to cut their own checks,maybe when they see the numbers.
The creditors are not amused but can they do anything to prevent it? Smart move from tsipras,now he wont be held accountable by the population for accepting the deal. Wonder what tsipras will vote for himself.
Whats the media coverage in Greece, is it in favour of accepting the deal and voting yes?
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21665 Posts
June 26 2015 22:29 GMT
#2466
How on earth do you hold a referendum with like a 2 day notice?

This feels like a stupid publicity stunt so that when the EU will decline the referendum (and they will because of time if nothing else) he can make them look bad.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Taguchi
Profile Joined February 2003
Greece1575 Posts
June 26 2015 22:45 GMT
#2467
On June 27 2015 07:29 Gorsameth wrote:
How on earth do you hold a referendum with like a 2 day notice?

This feels like a stupid publicity stunt so that when the EU will decline the referendum (and they will because of time if nothing else) he can make them look bad.


Week notice. Not that hard to setup polling stations and such. As for the population making an informed choice... You either need hours or years. It's not like there's consensus on the benefits (or not) of austerity, what happens after grexit and so on.

Also, publicity stunt? This is a binding referendum about a hugely important issue mate. Call it a political maneuver if you wish but it is no publicity stunt.
Great minds might think alike, but fastest hands rule the day~
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21665 Posts
June 26 2015 22:48 GMT
#2468
On June 27 2015 07:45 Taguchi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2015 07:29 Gorsameth wrote:
How on earth do you hold a referendum with like a 2 day notice?

This feels like a stupid publicity stunt so that when the EU will decline the referendum (and they will because of time if nothing else) he can make them look bad.


Week notice. Not that hard to setup polling stations and such. As for the population making an informed choice... You either need hours or years. It's not like there's consensus on the benefits (or not) of austerity, what happens after grexit and so on.

Also, publicity stunt? This is a binding referendum about a hugely important issue mate. Call it a political maneuver if you wish but it is no publicity stunt.

Isn't Greece due to pay by the 30th? That's not a week.

And yes I would call it a stunt when he is counting on the referendum never happening because the EU cannot accept the time frame because of the due date of the 30th.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Taguchi
Profile Joined February 2003
Greece1575 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-06-26 22:57:50
June 26 2015 22:50 GMT
#2469
On June 27 2015 07:29 Gorsameth wrote:
How on earth do you hold a referendum with like a 2 day notice?

This feels like a stupid publicity stunt so that when the EU will decline the referendum (and they will because of time if nothing else) he can make them look bad.


Week notice. Not that hard to setup polling stations and such. As for the population making an informed choice... You either need hours or years. It's not like there's consensus on the benefits (or not) of austerity, what happens after grexit and so on.

Also, publicity stunt? This is a binding referendum about a hugely important issue mate. Call it a political maneuver if you wish but it is no publicity stunt.

On June 27 2015 07:25 Rassy wrote:
75% supports Greece staying in euro and 60% supports shiriza government I read in a poll.
But people will have to vote to cut their own checks,maybe when they see the numbers.
The creditors are not amused but can they do anything to prevent it? Smart move from tsipras,now he wont be held accountable by the population for accepting the deal. Wonder what tsipras will vote for himself.
Whats the media coverage in Greece, is it in favour of accepting the deal and voting yes?


Media in Greece is largely controlled by vested interests (mostly the TV stations but also lots of newspapers). They desire status quo, nothing more and nothing less, for as long as possible. Their stance will be fiercely in favor of YES - right now their stance is in favor of not having the referendum at all (there are some constitutional issues, referenda about the economy are explicitly not allowed so this is already dicey but I'm no legal expert).

On June 27 2015 07:48 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2015 07:45 Taguchi wrote:
On June 27 2015 07:29 Gorsameth wrote:
How on earth do you hold a referendum with like a 2 day notice?

This feels like a stupid publicity stunt so that when the EU will decline the referendum (and they will because of time if nothing else) he can make them look bad.


Week notice. Not that hard to setup polling stations and such. As for the population making an informed choice... You either need hours or years. It's not like there's consensus on the benefits (or not) of austerity, what happens after grexit and so on.

Also, publicity stunt? This is a binding referendum about a hugely important issue mate. Call it a political maneuver if you wish but it is no publicity stunt.

Isn't Greece due to pay by the 30th? That's not a week.

And yes I would call it a stunt when he is counting on the referendum never happening because the EU cannot accept the time frame because of the due date of the 30th.


It's an IMF payment, non payment means arrears, not default, for a month. This was never a real issue. Anyway, Tsipras said he will ask, tomorrow, for a programme extension of a few days so that he can hold the referendum. We'll see.

Final leaked creditor proposal (likely the one that will be put to referendum):http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/2015/06/25/leaked-greece-bailout-plan-sent-to-eurogroup/

Notice it still does not include 12% one-off tax on corporate profits over 500k.
Great minds might think alike, but fastest hands rule the day~
ACrow
Profile Joined October 2011
Germany6583 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-06-26 23:19:44
June 26 2015 23:16 GMT
#2470
I am not quite sure what the referendum is supposed to accomplish. If it goes "no" it's a Grexit guaranteed, if it is a "yes" and Syriza was publicly promoting a "no" like it seems they do, then the government coalition goes bonkers and they'll have to go to reelections, which again leads to a dysfunctional government and thus no reforms for months, which is neither in the interest of the Greek people nor the Euro partners, and will likely mean a Grexit too (no reforms -> no more creditor money). So I guess this is basically just a way for Tsipras to wash his hands of it and put the blame on the Euro partners I guess? Or is he still gambling on the fact that nobody really wants a Grexit and the threat* of a public vote is meant to force better conditions?

(* I personally would never consider a public referendum a threat and was in favor of a referendum on the reforms for a long time - it's the only democratic way to handle this.)

Besides, a referendum would require certain parliaments of European partners to vote for an extension of the 2nd credit package by at least a week without a basis, which is pretty much against what was agreed with said parliaments. I'm still sure they'll vote for that, as nobody would want to risk taking blame over one or two weeks, but this is not a very democratic procedure for these countries and basically forces these parliaments to be Yes-Men. But this is certainly a minor point in comparison.
Get off my lawn, young punks
Rassy
Profile Joined August 2010
Netherlands2308 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-06-26 23:33:41
June 26 2015 23:25 GMT
#2471
Thx for the financial times link. Had to register (free) but it was worth it.

Eu wont accept this,i cant imagine how.
Like you said, if vote yes then tsipras will resign (he left himself no option by declaring the whole government would vote no) and If tsipras resigns then no one will implement anything for a few months unless martial law and a sort of temporary dictatorship??? No.
The outcome of the new elections would still be uncertain and there still wont be a guarantee that all the messures will be implemented after the new elections. If population votes no then it is obvious as well.
For first time I see no way out anymore but the stakes are high on both sides so who knows what will happen.

@below:

Wish you well coming days. Don't know what else to say
Taguchi
Profile Joined February 2003
Greece1575 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-06-26 23:31:16
June 26 2015 23:26 GMT
#2472
The core problem, ACrow, is that the adjustment programmes failed horribly in Greece. And that was not taken into account in this new deal, since it offers more of the same (this time the result is supposed to be different I guess). And Tsipras was getting browbeaten into not only accepting austerity, but also the specific kind of austerity that would mess him up more politically.

And we have a totally dysfunctional union. And all these people have different goals, personal, political, you name it.

It's a real mess to be sure. In my view it would be silly for Germany and others to reject the result only because they don't want to wait a week. It is a simple matter for the Bundestag to say 'well ok hold your referendum and be done with it'. Why wouldn't they?

edit: There are lines in ATMs. This is glorious. Total meltdown. Congratulations EU, IMF, Greece. I'll just go to sleep.
Great minds might think alike, but fastest hands rule the day~
accela
Profile Joined February 2010
Greece314 Posts
June 27 2015 05:49 GMT
#2473
Besides, a referendum would require certain parliaments of European partners to vote for an extension of the 2nd credit package by at least a week without a basis, which is pretty much against what was agreed with said parliaments.


Why? The payment to the IMF will most likely be skipped next week.

Btw the ultimatum by the EU/IMF that Greeks will be asked to approve or not is about an extension of the program for few months and then, along similar old lines, we would have to make a new program, more blackmailing and threats and so on and so forth for the decades to come.

Hopefully this time the government will permit the greeks living abroad to vote at the embassies, old governments never permitted it.

Btw this is going to be the first referendum for the greek republic that will have straight up question about a certain policy, hopefully far more will follow.
ACrow
Profile Joined October 2011
Germany6583 Posts
June 27 2015 09:13 GMT
#2474
On June 27 2015 14:49 accela wrote:
Show nested quote +
Besides, a referendum would require certain parliaments of European partners to vote for an extension of the 2nd credit package by at least a week without a basis, which is pretty much against what was agreed with said parliaments.


Why? The payment to the IMF will most likely be skipped next week.

It's not just about the IMF payment, the 2nd credit package (the one that has the 7.2 up to 11 bn € available, depending on whether you count the money originally intended for bank stabilization towards the total) is due to expire on the 30th as well. Just a reminder, the money doesn't appear out of nowhere, the other euro countries have to guarantee that money out of their pocket, which of course has to be legitimized by parliament. That is why the 30. is a deadline, not the IMF payment - originally it was even due to expire in February, it has already been extended.

I'm pretty sure they will vote to prolong the time yet again, but I question the procedure - no one in any of the parliaments has any real insight in the negotiations. It's not just an undemocratic procedure for the Greek people, it's also undemocratic for the other people. No democratic instance has control over this, which is just sad.
Get off my lawn, young punks
Maenander
Profile Joined November 2002
Germany4926 Posts
June 27 2015 10:50 GMT
#2475
Usually I am for a more direct democracy, but I wonder how you would want to make a process like debt restructuring more "democratic". You can't just "vote away" debt without it having massive repercussions. The situation might seem bad for the Greeks now, but there is no telling how bad it actually can become.

It's also quite certain that public opinion in Greece and the rest of Europe is at odds now that most of the money lent to Greece is taxpayer's money.

It always seems to be about Greece vs Germany in the media, but in reality other members of the Eurozone are just as or even more exposed to Greek debt than Germany and most of them would probably be less able to handle another "hair cut" or a Greek default.

For the actual numbers see
http://www.ieseg.fr/wp-content/uploads/2015-EQM-01_Dor.pdf

Just compare them with the GDP or the government budget of the respective countries. I feel especially sad for countries with a lower standard of living than Greece.

I wish Greece all the best, Grexit or not.
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6209 Posts
June 27 2015 11:29 GMT
#2476
Thx for the source.

This referendum is a joke tbh. Not the fact that there is a referendum, that's fine but they could've held it for months without the time pressure there's now.
Taguchi
Profile Joined February 2003
Greece1575 Posts
June 27 2015 12:39 GMT
#2477
On June 27 2015 20:29 RvB wrote:
Thx for the source.

This referendum is a joke tbh. Not the fact that there is a referendum, that's fine but they could've held it for months without the time pressure there's now.


I think Syriza were really, actually, honestly believing they could change Europe's austerity ways, that a workable, mutually beneficial deal could happen.

In hindsight... welp. Lift of austerity was never in the cards. A desire to humiliate Syriza probably developed in the meantime.
Great minds might think alike, but fastest hands rule the day~
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21665 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-06-27 12:51:20
June 27 2015 12:49 GMT
#2478
On June 27 2015 21:39 Taguchi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2015 20:29 RvB wrote:
Thx for the source.

This referendum is a joke tbh. Not the fact that there is a referendum, that's fine but they could've held it for months without the time pressure there's now.


I think Syriza were really, actually, honestly believing they could change Europe's austerity ways, that a workable, mutually beneficial deal could happen.

In hindsight... welp. Lift of austerity was never in the cards. A desire to humiliate Syriza probably developed in the meantime.

To be fair he campaigned on changing the deal without having talked to the creditors about feasibility. If you make a lot of public fuss about how the current deal is going to go away before even reaching the negotiation table your likely to piss off the other party.
And when they are the ones with the power your basically fucked.

Its entirely likely that if Greece had returned to the negotiation table with a different attitude a deal could have been reached but you need to build trust and good will not scorn.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
accela
Profile Joined February 2010
Greece314 Posts
June 27 2015 12:59 GMT
#2479
On June 27 2015 19:50 Maenander wrote:
Usually I am for a more direct democracy, but I wonder how you would want to make a process like debt restructuring more "democratic". You can't just "vote away" debt without it having massive repercussions. The situation might seem bad for the Greeks now, but there is no telling how bad it actually can become.

It's also quite certain that public opinion in Greece and the rest of Europe is at odds now that most of the money lent to Greece is taxpayer's money.

It always seems to be about Greece vs Germany in the media, but in reality other members of the Eurozone are just as or even more exposed to Greek debt than Germany and most of them would probably be less able to handle another "hair cut" or a Greek default.

For the actual numbers see
http://www.ieseg.fr/wp-content/uploads/2015-EQM-01_Dor.pdf

Just compare them with the GDP or the government budget of the respective countries. I feel especially sad for countries with a lower standard of living than Greece.

I wish Greece all the best, Grexit or not.


I'd like to remind you that the original composition and the amount of the greek debt back to 2009 when the whole crisis started was completly different.
In 2009, with the beginning of the recession in the
Greek economy, private Greek and foreign banks faced
increasing risks from non-performing private loans. The
foreign banks (essentially EU banks) had a high expo-
sure to Greece (€140 billion), against public sector (45%),
banks (16%) and the non-financial private sector (39%)

http://debt-truth.gr/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Report-3.pdf

I'd like also to remind you that not a single bailout program was approved by the greek people. When Papandreou announced a referendum it was Merkel and Sarkozy in a very harmonious way that pretty much dictated the question of the referendum: grexit or EU/IMF program.
+ Show Spoiler +

When the greeks were demonstrating by hundreds of thousands against the bailout programs that exactly transferred the debt from the private to the public sector, the european conservatives, your beloved leaders, and their local far-right wing puppets aka New Democracy, Pasok and Potami were calling them mad, lazy, dirty rioters that should get back to work while their police dogs were doing their "job"
+ Show Spoiler +


Don't get me wrong, i also feel very very sorry about all those countries that are exposed to greek debt while they shouldn't, if there was a way to roll back to the original debt composition, take it off your people's hands i would wholeheartedly support it.

Still the fact remains that the greek debt is unsustainable, keeps rising and i also don't see how the european public opinion would make any difference on it. Exactly because there is no foreseen major political change in europe and conservatism still prevails i see no other way than Greece leaving eurozone. If the bailout programs and loans continue your taxpayers' burden will simple grow.
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6209 Posts
June 27 2015 13:02 GMT
#2480
On June 27 2015 21:39 Taguchi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 27 2015 20:29 RvB wrote:
Thx for the source.

This referendum is a joke tbh. Not the fact that there is a referendum, that's fine but they could've held it for months without the time pressure there's now.


I think Syriza were really, actually, honestly believing they could change Europe's austerity ways, that a workable, mutually beneficial deal could happen.

In hindsight... welp. Lift of austerity was never in the cards. A desire to humiliate Syriza probably developed in the meantime.

They've been negotiating for 5 months or something. The creditors have been pretty clear they want more austerity. Syriza clearly knew this as well but still they decided to have the referendum on the last possible moment.

There is no real desire to humiliate either Greece or Syriza.
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