EPTDon't think Germany wants to agree with this but voting NO and being seen as responsible for blowing up the eu is not very appealing either.
Greece seems to agree with this? at least I didn't hear anything that indicates they would not.
European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 124
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Rassy
Netherlands2308 Posts
Don't think Germany wants to agree with this but voting NO and being seen as responsible for blowing up the eu is not very appealing either. Greece seems to agree with this? at least I didn't hear anything that indicates they would not. | ||
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Taguchi
Greece1575 Posts
edit: Tsipras claimed ultimatum deal issued by creditors. That deal will be put up for acceptance/rejection by referendum. Syriza supports a NO vote. No clue what happens after either a 'yes' or 'no' vote frankly; yes means elections (but no way will people vote for crooks again...), no means grexit? But ministers claiming Euro exit not up for discussion. Mind blown~ On June 26 2015 18:04 RvB wrote: Source for that? There has been a lot of bullshit going around about Greek negotiations. With Greece claiming one thing and the troika denying it and vice versa. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/06/24/2132849/in-which-red-lines-meet-red-ink/ | ||
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Rassy
Netherlands2308 Posts
A referendum, that will be hilarious. Is there time for a referendum and counting all the votes before Tuesday? Let alone time to inform the public over the issue at hand so they can make an educated vote? It seems obvious how the population will vote (NO!) but in election anything can happen and maybe people get scared now that it is so close. High stakes indeed,this wont end well. | ||
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Taguchi
Greece1575 Posts
On June 27 2015 07:13 Rassy wrote: Hmm I was wrong,thought this plan was good for Greece but guess not. A referendum, that will be hilarious. Is there time for a referendum and counting all the votes before Tuesday? Let alone time to inform the public over the issue at hand so they can make an educated vote? It seems obvious how the population will vote (NO!) but in election anything can happen and maybe people get scared now that it is so close. High stakes indeed,this wont end well. Polls suggest a victory for YES. However, propaganda plays a major role in such cases so... doubt anyone can tell. We don't even know what tomorrow's Eurogroup brings, or whether EU will accept the result of the referendum (I mean, they pay lip service to democracy but... yeah). | ||
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Rassy
Netherlands2308 Posts
But people will have to vote to cut their own checks,maybe when they see the numbers. The creditors are not amused but can they do anything to prevent it? Smart move from tsipras,now he wont be held accountable by the population for accepting the deal. Wonder what tsipras will vote for himself. Whats the media coverage in Greece, is it in favour of accepting the deal and voting yes? | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21667 Posts
This feels like a stupid publicity stunt so that when the EU will decline the referendum (and they will because of time if nothing else) he can make them look bad. | ||
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Taguchi
Greece1575 Posts
On June 27 2015 07:29 Gorsameth wrote: How on earth do you hold a referendum with like a 2 day notice? This feels like a stupid publicity stunt so that when the EU will decline the referendum (and they will because of time if nothing else) he can make them look bad. Week notice. Not that hard to setup polling stations and such. As for the population making an informed choice... You either need hours or years. It's not like there's consensus on the benefits (or not) of austerity, what happens after grexit and so on. Also, publicity stunt? This is a binding referendum about a hugely important issue mate. Call it a political maneuver if you wish but it is no publicity stunt. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21667 Posts
On June 27 2015 07:45 Taguchi wrote: Week notice. Not that hard to setup polling stations and such. As for the population making an informed choice... You either need hours or years. It's not like there's consensus on the benefits (or not) of austerity, what happens after grexit and so on. Also, publicity stunt? This is a binding referendum about a hugely important issue mate. Call it a political maneuver if you wish but it is no publicity stunt. Isn't Greece due to pay by the 30th? That's not a week. And yes I would call it a stunt when he is counting on the referendum never happening because the EU cannot accept the time frame because of the due date of the 30th. | ||
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Taguchi
Greece1575 Posts
On June 27 2015 07:29 Gorsameth wrote: How on earth do you hold a referendum with like a 2 day notice? This feels like a stupid publicity stunt so that when the EU will decline the referendum (and they will because of time if nothing else) he can make them look bad. Week notice. Not that hard to setup polling stations and such. As for the population making an informed choice... You either need hours or years. It's not like there's consensus on the benefits (or not) of austerity, what happens after grexit and so on. Also, publicity stunt? This is a binding referendum about a hugely important issue mate. Call it a political maneuver if you wish but it is no publicity stunt. On June 27 2015 07:25 Rassy wrote: 75% supports Greece staying in euro and 60% supports shiriza government I read in a poll. But people will have to vote to cut their own checks,maybe when they see the numbers. The creditors are not amused but can they do anything to prevent it? Smart move from tsipras,now he wont be held accountable by the population for accepting the deal. Wonder what tsipras will vote for himself. Whats the media coverage in Greece, is it in favour of accepting the deal and voting yes? Media in Greece is largely controlled by vested interests (mostly the TV stations but also lots of newspapers). They desire status quo, nothing more and nothing less, for as long as possible. Their stance will be fiercely in favor of YES - right now their stance is in favor of not having the referendum at all (there are some constitutional issues, referenda about the economy are explicitly not allowed so this is already dicey but I'm no legal expert). On June 27 2015 07:48 Gorsameth wrote: Isn't Greece due to pay by the 30th? That's not a week. And yes I would call it a stunt when he is counting on the referendum never happening because the EU cannot accept the time frame because of the due date of the 30th. It's an IMF payment, non payment means arrears, not default, for a month. This was never a real issue. Anyway, Tsipras said he will ask, tomorrow, for a programme extension of a few days so that he can hold the referendum. We'll see. Final leaked creditor proposal (likely the one that will be put to referendum):http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/2015/06/25/leaked-greece-bailout-plan-sent-to-eurogroup/ Notice it still does not include 12% one-off tax on corporate profits over 500k. | ||
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ACrow
Germany6583 Posts
(* I personally would never consider a public referendum a threat and was in favor of a referendum on the reforms for a long time - it's the only democratic way to handle this.) Besides, a referendum would require certain parliaments of European partners to vote for an extension of the 2nd credit package by at least a week without a basis, which is pretty much against what was agreed with said parliaments. I'm still sure they'll vote for that, as nobody would want to risk taking blame over one or two weeks, but this is not a very democratic procedure for these countries and basically forces these parliaments to be Yes-Men. But this is certainly a minor point in comparison. | ||
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Rassy
Netherlands2308 Posts
Eu wont accept this,i cant imagine how. Like you said, if vote yes then tsipras will resign (he left himself no option by declaring the whole government would vote no) and If tsipras resigns then no one will implement anything for a few months unless martial law and a sort of temporary dictatorship??? No. The outcome of the new elections would still be uncertain and there still wont be a guarantee that all the messures will be implemented after the new elections. If population votes no then it is obvious as well. For first time I see no way out anymore but the stakes are high on both sides so who knows what will happen. @below: Wish you well coming days. Don't know what else to say  | ||
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Taguchi
Greece1575 Posts
And we have a totally dysfunctional union. And all these people have different goals, personal, political, you name it. It's a real mess to be sure. In my view it would be silly for Germany and others to reject the result only because they don't want to wait a week. It is a simple matter for the Bundestag to say 'well ok hold your referendum and be done with it'. Why wouldn't they? edit: There are lines in ATMs. This is glorious. Total meltdown. Congratulations EU, IMF, Greece. I'll just go to sleep. | ||
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accela
Greece314 Posts
Besides, a referendum would require certain parliaments of European partners to vote for an extension of the 2nd credit package by at least a week without a basis, which is pretty much against what was agreed with said parliaments. Why? The payment to the IMF will most likely be skipped next week. Btw the ultimatum by the EU/IMF that Greeks will be asked to approve or not is about an extension of the program for few months and then, along similar old lines, we would have to make a new program, more blackmailing and threats and so on and so forth for the decades to come. Hopefully this time the government will permit the greeks living abroad to vote at the embassies, old governments never permitted it. Btw this is going to be the first referendum for the greek republic that will have straight up question about a certain policy, hopefully far more will follow. | ||
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ACrow
Germany6583 Posts
On June 27 2015 14:49 accela wrote: Why? The payment to the IMF will most likely be skipped next week. It's not just about the IMF payment, the 2nd credit package (the one that has the 7.2 up to 11 bn € available, depending on whether you count the money originally intended for bank stabilization towards the total) is due to expire on the 30th as well. Just a reminder, the money doesn't appear out of nowhere, the other euro countries have to guarantee that money out of their pocket, which of course has to be legitimized by parliament. That is why the 30. is a deadline, not the IMF payment - originally it was even due to expire in February, it has already been extended. I'm pretty sure they will vote to prolong the time yet again, but I question the procedure - no one in any of the parliaments has any real insight in the negotiations. It's not just an undemocratic procedure for the Greek people, it's also undemocratic for the other people. No democratic instance has control over this, which is just sad. | ||
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Maenander
Germany4926 Posts
It's also quite certain that public opinion in Greece and the rest of Europe is at odds now that most of the money lent to Greece is taxpayer's money. It always seems to be about Greece vs Germany in the media, but in reality other members of the Eurozone are just as or even more exposed to Greek debt than Germany and most of them would probably be less able to handle another "hair cut" or a Greek default. For the actual numbers see http://www.ieseg.fr/wp-content/uploads/2015-EQM-01_Dor.pdf Just compare them with the GDP or the government budget of the respective countries. I feel especially sad for countries with a lower standard of living than Greece. I wish Greece all the best, Grexit or not. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6209 Posts
This referendum is a joke tbh. Not the fact that there is a referendum, that's fine but they could've held it for months without the time pressure there's now. | ||
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Taguchi
Greece1575 Posts
On June 27 2015 20:29 RvB wrote: Thx for the source. This referendum is a joke tbh. Not the fact that there is a referendum, that's fine but they could've held it for months without the time pressure there's now. I think Syriza were really, actually, honestly believing they could change Europe's austerity ways, that a workable, mutually beneficial deal could happen. In hindsight... welp. Lift of austerity was never in the cards. A desire to humiliate Syriza probably developed in the meantime. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21667 Posts
On June 27 2015 21:39 Taguchi wrote: I think Syriza were really, actually, honestly believing they could change Europe's austerity ways, that a workable, mutually beneficial deal could happen. In hindsight... welp. Lift of austerity was never in the cards. A desire to humiliate Syriza probably developed in the meantime. To be fair he campaigned on changing the deal without having talked to the creditors about feasibility. If you make a lot of public fuss about how the current deal is going to go away before even reaching the negotiation table your likely to piss off the other party. And when they are the ones with the power your basically fucked. Its entirely likely that if Greece had returned to the negotiation table with a different attitude a deal could have been reached but you need to build trust and good will not scorn. | ||
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accela
Greece314 Posts
On June 27 2015 19:50 Maenander wrote: Usually I am for a more direct democracy, but I wonder how you would want to make a process like debt restructuring more "democratic". You can't just "vote away" debt without it having massive repercussions. The situation might seem bad for the Greeks now, but there is no telling how bad it actually can become. It's also quite certain that public opinion in Greece and the rest of Europe is at odds now that most of the money lent to Greece is taxpayer's money. It always seems to be about Greece vs Germany in the media, but in reality other members of the Eurozone are just as or even more exposed to Greek debt than Germany and most of them would probably be less able to handle another "hair cut" or a Greek default. For the actual numbers see http://www.ieseg.fr/wp-content/uploads/2015-EQM-01_Dor.pdf Just compare them with the GDP or the government budget of the respective countries. I feel especially sad for countries with a lower standard of living than Greece. I wish Greece all the best, Grexit or not. I'd like to remind you that the original composition and the amount of the greek debt back to 2009 when the whole crisis started was completly different. In 2009, with the beginning of the recession in the Greek economy, private Greek and foreign banks faced increasing risks from non-performing private loans. The foreign banks (essentially EU banks) had a high expo- sure to Greece (€140 billion), against public sector (45%), banks (16%) and the non-financial private sector (39%) http://debt-truth.gr/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Report-3.pdf I'd like also to remind you that not a single bailout program was approved by the greek people. When Papandreou announced a referendum it was Merkel and Sarkozy in a very harmonious way that pretty much dictated the question of the referendum: grexit or EU/IMF program. + Show Spoiler + When the greeks were demonstrating by hundreds of thousands against the bailout programs that exactly transferred the debt from the private to the public sector, the european conservatives, your beloved leaders, and their local far-right wing puppets aka New Democracy, Pasok and Potami were calling them mad, lazy, dirty rioters that should get back to work while their police dogs were doing their "job" + Show Spoiler + Don't get me wrong, i also feel very very sorry about all those countries that are exposed to greek debt while they shouldn't, if there was a way to roll back to the original debt composition, take it off your people's hands i would wholeheartedly support it. Still the fact remains that the greek debt is unsustainable, keeps rising and i also don't see how the european public opinion would make any difference on it. Exactly because there is no foreseen major political change in europe and conservatism still prevails i see no other way than Greece leaving eurozone. If the bailout programs and loans continue your taxpayers' burden will simple grow. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6209 Posts
On June 27 2015 21:39 Taguchi wrote: I think Syriza were really, actually, honestly believing they could change Europe's austerity ways, that a workable, mutually beneficial deal could happen. In hindsight... welp. Lift of austerity was never in the cards. A desire to humiliate Syriza probably developed in the meantime. They've been negotiating for 5 months or something. The creditors have been pretty clear they want more austerity. Syriza clearly knew this as well but still they decided to have the referendum on the last possible moment. There is no real desire to humiliate either Greece or Syriza. | ||
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