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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. | ||
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Nebuchad
Switzerland12467 Posts
On January 21 2018 06:01 farvacola wrote: The best part is that he thinks zlefin is some kind of Marxist lol, zlefin is clearly an apolitical robot masquerading as a human. Under zlefinism we will each be apportioned an insulting private message according to our needs | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6277 Posts
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Kickboxer
Slovenia1308 Posts
 it was surprisingly accurate | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On January 21 2018 06:21 Nebuchad wrote: Under zlefinism we will each be apportioned an insulting private message according to our needs From each according to his shitpost to each according to his irate zlefin pm. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
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Big J
Austria16289 Posts
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On January 22 2018 01:06 Big J wrote: Reading through the rather leftwing parts of the German news sites and forums it looks like this is a suicide move. Seems like the people once again know better than their political leaders. Yup. I didn't want to add a personal comment to this news, but this was exactly the word I would have used too. S&D parties in Europe have a true passion for suicide as of late. From what I understood it isn't over yet, a vote is still needed for the final government programme (?). | ||
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sc-darkness
856 Posts
Sunday Show Round Up: Macron Admits France Would 'Probably' Vote To Leave EU Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/macron-mcdonnell-marr-bolton-peston_uk_5a64917ee4b0022830039c4d As expected, media exaggerates a bit with headline, then anti-EU people take advantage of that. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On January 22 2018 01:21 sc-darkness wrote: Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/macron-mcdonnell-marr-bolton-peston_uk_5a64917ee4b0022830039c4d As expected, media exaggerates a bit with headline, then anti-EU people take advantage of that. The French President was also asked if he shared the outrage from former French colonies in Africa Simply amazing to see how those countries are still mentioned 50 years after the decolonization... Very unclear what a referendum would give in France, especially as Brexit happened and it's used as a scarecrow. It's pure fiction anyway as pro-EU forces would never hold a "remain or leave" referendum. Macron intends to turn the 2019 European elections into a high stake election though. | ||
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Big J
Austria16289 Posts
On January 22 2018 01:10 TheDwf wrote: Yup. I didn't want to add a personal comment to this news, but this was exactly the word I would have used too. S&D parties in Europe have a true passion for suicide as of late. From what I understood it isn't over yet, a vote is still needed for the final government programme (?). Yes, they need another vote on it. And the result has been bought on the back of a few promises that will be hard to push past the CDU and even harder to push past the CSU. I don't believe the SPD has a clear mandate to form a coalition with the conservatives at this point. If they only have 60% of their 23% voter share behind them, they won't have the support for government politics. Their base and subsequentely parts of their parliament faction will run against such a government. A vice chancellor Schulz will not have the power and support to even push whatever compromise he gets out of Merkel. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On January 22 2018 03:14 Big J wrote: Yes, they need another vote on it. And the result has been bought on the back of a few promises that will be hard to push past the CDU and even harder to push past the CSU. I don't believe the SPD has a clear mandate to form a coalition with the conservatives at this point. If they only have 60% of their 23% voter share behind them, they won't have the support for government politics. Their base and subsequentely parts of their parliament faction will run against such a government. A vice chancellor Schulz will not have the power and support to even push whatever compromise he gets out of Merkel. They're pretty much going all-in on this supposed "miracle deal" with Macron to reform the EU. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
As much as they may detest another round of GroKo the alternatives are just even worse for them. They certainly don't want reelections and while they would prefer FDP+Greens+CDU coalition over GroKo by a lot that isn't going to happen. The FDP just recently confirmed once again that even if SPD+CDU talks should fail they would not be willing to start another round of talks. So that would give us some kind of trouble as well assuming it's not a bluff and I don't see why it should be. Somewhat unrelated but I tried to check out polls on german politics to have a look at wether all this has changed things a bit for people. Mostly because I was arguing that the FDP would lose votes over their ragequit of the talks and me personally saying that I wouldn't vote for them again and instead would vote Greens or CDU next time around. In summary it seems like CDU and SPU are almost unchanged. SPD has 2 polls in there that has them dropping down to 18% (vs their original 20.5 from the day of election) but the majority is in the 20/21% range. Same for CDU, there's one that has them at 31.5 but the rest is all in the 32/33/34 range (used to be 32.9%). The one party that stands out a little, as I already suspected are the Greens. They certainly seem to have gotten the better of this. They had 8.9% on the day of election and are now polling between 10-12%. The Left also seems to have gotten a minor boost but not as significant as the greens. The only party that really seems to have lost support based on this looks to be the FDP. They achieved 10.7% on election day but are polling at 8-9% now, with a single 10% result in there as well. That puts them on 8.7% if I take those polls as an average. The 10% result is from December last year, the 9% results are all from early-mid January while the 8% results are all from late January. So seems like a down-trend to me. Granted I couldn't really find anything else and those are just (the most recent?) 7 polls so the samplesize isn't there but take it for what it is. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On January 22 2018 05:08 Toadesstern wrote: yeah another vote is needed but I really think the SPD is going to fall in line "for the greater good" (...) In summary it seems like CDU and SPU are almost unchanged. SPD has 2 polls in there that has them dropping down to 18% (vs their original 20.5 from the day of election) but the majority is in the 20/21% range. = The fear of losing more in case of new elections will make them lose more in the long run. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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Big J
Austria16289 Posts
On January 22 2018 05:44 Nyxisto wrote: let's first see what the SPD can gain in the actual coalition talks now. The member vote is smart because it puts a lot of pressure on the CDU/CSU to deliver something real. The weak vote of 56% means that the members flipping them off still is a genuine possibility. That is a Merkelist point of view. If you are a real conservative and your main political goal is to destroy social-democracy because you believe it is a communist relic of the past, like it is Mr. Kurz's goal in Austria, then your strategy is going to be to put any form of blame on your soc-dem coalition partner. And 44% against the coalition give you an amazing base to blame the SPD for never really wanting to govern to begin with while actually being able to playing out the SPD government against their own base. Given how deeply buried the CSU, the German conservative media and parts of the CDU are in Mr. Kurz's ass I would be very, very worried about the inner EVP connections. The conservatives in many European countries are taking a trip to the far-right these days, in particular on economic measures and anything that resembles liberal socialism is their enemy. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On January 22 2018 05:44 Nyxisto wrote: let's first see what the SPD can gain in the actual coalition talks now. The member vote is smart because it puts a lot of pressure on the CDU/CSU to deliver something real. The weak vote of 56% means that the members flipping them off still is a genuine possibility. Isn't the CSU under pressure from the far-right and liberals? In which case they won't want to drop too many things to you. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
Also on policy: The CSU always creates lots of conservative noise but especially on economic issues they aren't actually that right wing, to the left of the CDU even. The CDU generallly is the more market liberal party whereas the CSU is a little more communitarian. | ||
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sc-darkness
856 Posts
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