EPTI mean japan will be fine nevertheless but I don't know how they solve the "aging" population since average lifetime expectation for Japan is 84 for women & 78 for man afaik.
Japan's economy and Abenomics failing - Page 3
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Laserist
Turkey4269 Posts
I mean japan will be fine nevertheless but I don't know how they solve the "aging" population since average lifetime expectation for Japan is 84 for women & 78 for man afaik. | ||
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AutoEngineer
United States97 Posts
On September 16 2014 12:17 Sub40APM wrote: 1. North Korea's demographic picture is only marginally better South Koreas. The only reason it doesnt have as many very old people, ie 60+, as South Korea is that life expectancy in North Korea doesnt allow for it. http://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/compare/north-korea.south-korea/demographics 2. That population right now is literally 16x poorer than South Koreans, who is going to pay to equvalize that? Or do you genuinely think South Koreans are going to tolerate having their standard of life decline by over 50%? No they will not. Germany still hasnt finished digesting East Germany, and East Germany was a fraction of the Federal Republic's population. 3. North Korea's military will have to be disarmed and recycled, and you will have large population of long lost males who have no uses. Unless of course you are taking about where the South just rules the North like a complete colony, keeping the Norther separate from the Southern economy. North Korea's demographic picture is only marginally better than South Korea's? North Korea has a total fertility rate of 2.0 per woman, the highest in East Asia. South Korea has the 2nd lowest fertility rate and the 3rd lowest birth rate in East Asia. Only 14.1% of South Korea's population (about 7.5 million) is made up of people in the 0-14 year old age bracket. 23.2% of North Korea's population (about 5.6 million) is made up of people in the 0-14 year old age bracket. South Korea has more than twice the population of North Korea. Yet it only has 25% more young people. With a fertility rate of 2.0 children per woman, North Korea's young population is increasing whereas the elderly population is quickly decreasing. This is due to the high elderly mortality rates and high elderly suicide rates. On September 16 2014 14:54 levelping wrote:The idea of North Korea as a demographic saviour is laughable. Even assuming it is full of fertile young people, most of them are completely useless as labour in a market economy since most of them would have worked in the army or in farms for all their lives and have little applicable skills. Are you saying that 6 million young people will not be able to do basic manufacturing labor like fitting doors, following basic instructions and working at mostly labor intensive jobs? Think about it for a second. South Korea will be able to have the cheapest labor in the world. Cheaper than China, Vietnam and Thailand. Plus, it will boost the incomes of North Koreans several fold. It's a win-win situation for both South Koreans and North Koreans. This is the exact reason why Goldman Sachs predicts that a unified Korea can overtake France, Germany and Japan by 2045. That's a very short period of time if you look back at Korea in the 1950s, the poorest country in the world (poorer than all African nations). On September 16 2014 14:54 levelping wrote:In fact the influx of a huge low skilled and poor population sounda like a demographic disaster in the making. It will create a hugely divided society. I agree with this. There will be enormous socio-economic-demographic problems and this presents a huge challenge to Korean reunification. It is expected to cost South Korea at least 7% of its GDP. However the economic benefits in the long term are enormous. There is even a theory that South Korea is delaying reunification in order to North Korea to increase its population to around 35 million and this represents the peak young population of North Korea. On September 16 2014 17:40 Laserist wrote: Is this real? => http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/consumer-spending I mean japan will be fine nevertheless but I don't know how they solve the "aging" population since average lifetime expectation for Japan is 84 for women & 78 for man afaik. I don't understand what is so hard to believe here? Inflation target has been missed and Japan increased its sales tax. Of course it will create a huge dive in consumer spending. | ||
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coverpunch
United States2093 Posts
On September 16 2014 17:40 Laserist wrote: Is this real? => http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/consumer-spending I mean japan will be fine nevertheless but I don't know how they solve the "aging" population since average lifetime expectation for Japan is 84 for women & 78 for man afaik. It is probably true but the y-axis scale is terribly misleading. It represents about a 8% drop but they make it look like a 80% drop. | ||
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Laserist
Turkey4269 Posts
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Crushinator
Netherlands2138 Posts
The south has graduated from a low-cost manufacturer to a high-skill economy, but would be sent back to primary school. This isn't even considering most of the huge social problems of reintegrating vastly different cultures. Reunification would need to be phased and take decades to complete, they would not be an economic union overnight. Having low labor costs is not something a country should boast about. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On September 16 2014 17:02 Shiragaku wrote: You know, what really gets me is why there was no uprising in North Korea after the fall of the Soviet Union while other cult like nations like Albania and Romania fell. half the country is in the army. you can revolt against confused moderates not hardliners. they'll actually shoot you On September 16 2014 17:40 Laserist wrote: Is this real? => http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/consumer-spending I mean japan will be fine nevertheless but I don't know how they solve the "aging" population since average lifetime expectation for Japan is 84 for women & 78 for man afaik. they don't have to solve it per se on the demographics front. just maintain and build upon your high productivity economy. these old people are mostly rich but save all of their money. | ||
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unkkz
Norway2196 Posts
Japan has the most effecient healthcare system for elderly people in terms of cost however, not that it's strange considering the huge strain the large amount of old people puts on their system. Any idea why there are so many old people in Japan? | ||
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levelping
Singapore759 Posts
On September 16 2014 17:44 AutoEngineer wrote: Are you saying that 6 million young people will not be able to do basic manufacturing labor like fitting doors, following basic instructions and working at mostly labor intensive jobs? Think about it for a second. South Korea will be able to have the cheapest labor in the world. Cheaper than China, Vietnam and Thailand. Plus, it will boost the incomes of North Koreans several fold. It's a win-win situation for both South Koreans and North Koreans. This is the exact reason why Goldman Sachs predicts that a unified Korea can overtake France, Germany and Japan by 2045. That's a very short period of time if you look back at Korea in the 1950s, the poorest country in the world (poorer than all African nations). I agree with this. There will be enormous socio-economic-demographic problems and this presents a huge challenge to Korean reunification. It is expected to cost South Korea at least 7% of its GDP. However the economic benefits in the long term are enormous. There is even a theory that South Korea is delaying reunification in order to North Korea to increase its population to around 35 million and this represents the peak young population of North Korea. This is incredibly superficial analysis. Yes, you will get 6 million young people, and this will create a big cheap labour pool. Well too bad that South Korea isn't in the business of fitting doors (honestly? - i sure hope that South Korea has 6 million doors to fit on a daily basis) or manufacturing cheap products which require low skilled labour. If you look at the major South Korean exports and products it is all in high tech, high skilled industries and these are not things that a farm hand is going to pick up immediately. Labour needs to be used productively in order to be useful. Otherwise it's just more mouths to feed and more social problems to deal with. And a high tech economy like South Korea is designed in large part to reduce the reliance on labour. I have no idea how a big huge influx of low skilled workers is going to be useful to this. | ||
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jodwin
Finland18 Posts
On September 16 2014 20:00 unkkz wrote: Any idea why there are so many old people in Japan? It's not a situation wildly different from western countries that experienced a baby boom after WW2, just on a somewhat different scale due to a higher life expectancy and faster decrease in birth rates. As to why their birth rates have decreased as much as they've had is a can of worms of its own and most likely there are just as many reasons as there are young adults not having children | ||
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Laserist
Turkey4269 Posts
On September 16 2014 20:00 unkkz wrote: Any idea why there are so many old people in Japan? I had a conversation in Japan with one of my friends about that issue. Mostly the low carb Japanese cuisine, genetics & superb health care system. | ||
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Acritter
Syria7637 Posts
On September 16 2014 20:41 Laserist wrote: I had a conversation in Japan with one of my friends about that issue. Mostly the low carb Japanese cuisine, genetics & superb health care system. That's not the answer, though, because the question isn't "why are people getting so old." It's "why are the demographics so old." People aren't remarking on a normal age distribution with an exceptionally long life expectancy, they're remarking on an abnormal age distribution. The direct cause for an abnormal age distribution is a lowered birth rate, and the reasons for that are what people speculate about. The life expectancy may be because of what you stated, of course, but it's not what people are worried about. | ||
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Crushinator
Netherlands2138 Posts
On September 16 2014 20:41 Laserist wrote: I had a conversation in Japan with one of my friends about that issue. Mostly the low carb Japanese cuisine, genetics & superb health care system. Carb intake as % of total intake is actually higher in Japan than it is in Europe or the US. | ||
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hypercube
Hungary2735 Posts
On September 16 2014 19:12 oneofthem wrote: half the country is in the army. you can revolt against confused moderates not hardliners. they'll actually shoot you What you usually have is people in the military and lower rungs of power revolting. Which is exactly what happened in Romania. The hardliners couldn't shoot because the people who were supposed to order the shooting were supporting the revolution/coup. And they were by no means confused: they wanted a bigger piece of the pie and many of them did get it. | ||
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Laserist
Turkey4269 Posts
On September 16 2014 23:48 Crushinator wrote: Carb intake as % of total intake is actually higher in Japan than it is in Europe or the US. I appreciate if you share some sources. | ||
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sumsaR
Sweden1812 Posts
On September 15 2014 23:29 AutoEngineer wrote: Also the increase in consumption tax from 5% to 8% and soon to be 10% was a move by Abe in the name of capitalism. The Japanese public's quality of life suffers, while Japanese investors and companies are happy. The last time Japan raised its consumption tax, it caused a recession. It just might have been that the 1997 Asian financial crisis played a larger part. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On September 17 2014 00:23 hypercube wrote: What you usually have is people in the military and lower rungs of power revolting. Which is exactly what happened in Romania. The hardliners couldn't shoot because the people who were supposed to order the shooting were supporting the revolution/coup. And they were by no means confused: they wanted a bigger piece of the pie and many of them did get it. the question was why there was no uprising in NK. answer is they are more hardline or should i say hardcore at controlling the people. | ||
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hypercube
Hungary2735 Posts
On September 17 2014 01:55 oneofthem wrote: the question was why there was no uprising in NK. answer is they are more hardline or should i say hardcore at controlling the people. Agreed. As long as by people you mean the second tier of bureaucracy and military leadership, not the actual people. | ||
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G3CKO
Canada1430 Posts
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Taf the Ghost
United States11751 Posts
On September 16 2014 20:41 Laserist wrote: I had a conversation in Japan with one of my friends about that issue. Mostly the low carb Japanese cuisine, genetics & superb health care system. Low *calorie*, not carb, diets. Big difference. Lots of Fish helps for a few other bits. As for why there are so many "old people", the better answer is: the Japanese have as many children as the Wife wants. When you're living in a 40 sq meter or less apartments, how many kids do you want? Also, everything is horribly expensive. And they didn't even legally allow the "pill" until 2000, I believe it was. Lack of children is by mass choice & economic realities. Or someone made most Japanese men infertile. One or the other.  | ||
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WhiteDog
France8650 Posts
On September 17 2014 05:11 Taf the Ghost wrote: Low *calorie*, not carb, diets. Big difference. Lots of Fish helps for a few other bits. As for why there are so many "old people", the better answer is: the Japanese have as many children as the Wife wants. When you're living in a 40 sq meter or less apartments, how many kids do you want? Also, everything is horribly expensive. And they didn't even legally allow the "pill" until 2000, I believe it was. Lack of children is by mass choice & economic realities. Or someone made most Japanese men infertile. One or the other. Japan and Germany are really close in this regard. When the recovery and employment is "achieved" by an increase in precarious jobs and control of wage, the demand don't grow and not only it has impact on growth (which is what is happening in germany and europe) and on natality. All in all, it's a failure of a economic model that put exports and labor costs before everything else. | ||
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