They probably didn't know that it was the plane at all. The first few days everyone was still searching on the other side of the Ocean in the Gulf of Thailand/South China Sea instead of in the Andaman Sea/Indian Ocean. I don't think they were looking for things that crossed over to the other side. (Or not even looking at all )
If you can't verify your information, it might be more confusing to announce mere speculations that turns out to be wrong.
Although this doesn't help much for the search though. The search range is still far too vast and it could be years before they find it.
On March 19 2014 00:45 arbiter_md wrote: Good theory. I agree that it is the most credible. The fire was somewhat isolated since the aircraft was able to fly for another 6 hours. Which makes me think, it was the smoke that disabled the people, and after that the fire probably stopped because of lack of oxygen.
This also needs a lot to come together. There was the case of Helios Airways Flight 522 that had a similarly eerie story. You'd basically need a fire that, for whatever reason, either quickly disables all forms of communication (unlikely) or something that causes incapacitation of the crew due to hypoxia before being able to communicate it (also unlikely but this is a case where it happened).
An example of a flight where a fire was underestimated (but in this case communicated to ATC) would be Swissair Flight 111.
Nigeria Airways Flight 2120 is an example of the bursting tire -> fire theory. Those things don't just happen without anyone noticing.
tl;dr: The issue with all the fire-theories is that you need a fire so subtle that the crew doesn't notice it (which would be immediately communicated and is also highly unlikely) but also strong enough that it disables communication so suddenly that you can't communicate it before it ate up your ways of communicating. That's really, really hard to pull off. =P
The pilot would be the one disabling the comms, not the fire, as stated in that article.
That's not how it works. It's not "something is burning better disable all electronics". If your warning lights pop up or someone reports a smell of smoke or, even worse, sees smoke it's a matter of a few seconds to communicate it.
Yes procedures put saving your plane above communicating what's going on but that brings us back to very specific circumstances that need to occur to make a fire at FL300+ both so subtle that you didn't feel the need to communicate it at first but also so suddenly horrible that you now are unable of communicating it. That's also why I specifically mentioned the Helios flight above. In that case something happened that was very subtle at first (basically the pilots slowly lost access to oxygen), they were both occupied with trying to solve a different but related problem together with ground control (aka distracted from the real issue) and then all of a sudden fell unconscious.
There are actually a lot of differences between the Helios flight and this.
1) Alarms were going off. 2) Pilots were communicating with the tower (and disregarding their advice) until they passed out. 3) Auto pilot flew to the destination by itself and circled until crashing. 4) Even though Helios was stuck at cruising altitude, atleast one person was conscious. One of the crew was seen going into the cockpit and trying to regain control of the aircraft from the unconscious pilots. Unfortunately the plane ran out of fuel before he could have done anything. 5) MH370 descended to 23,000ft. This is lower than Everest which you can climb without supplemental O2.
So there are a lot of issues in that comparison.
just to be clear, you need acclimation time and training to be able to handle zero supplemental oxygen at that kind of altitude, and it will certainly affect you in some way even then. a sudden change of pressurization from standard cruising pressurization to something like 23k feet oxygen levels would absolutely impair your cognitive capabilities at the very least.
On March 19 2014 04:05 DeepElemBlues wrote: So where the hell is the plane?
Crashed into a mountain in Central Asia?
At the bottom of the Indian Ocean?
Sitting in a hangar on the Legion of Doom's secret island base?
Honestly, I don't understand why this is being seen as a ridiculous option.
If this thing was hijacked (and yes, that is a big "if"), any such hijackers had a purpose for it. You don't go dark, change course and evade radar just to kill the people on board. You can do that by nosediving straightaway.
Now, they also didn't 9/11 it into any target that we're aware of, so what else do you do with an invisible stolen plane? Surely one of the more reasonable options is to try to land it. It's not beyond possibility that it is or was sitting on an airstrip in one of the Stans.
In fact, at risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, I'd say that's one of the top three:
1. It went deep into the Indian Ocean and ran out of fuel, due to pilot incapacitation/insanity/whatever 2. Hijackers took it, failed at whatever their goal was, and crashed it somewhere in Central Asia 3. Hijackers took it, and succeeded at landing it at some location, probably also in Central Asia.
On March 19 2014 18:08 mdb wrote: I`m telling you. Military is involved in this imo 100%. Only they have the possibility to make things dissapear in such way.
Various military's have a good chance of knowing more than their letting out in the interest of hiding capabilities. I find it unlikely that they were directly involved in the disappearance though. Forcing a passenger jet out of the sky isn't an easy thing. More than 100km from shore the only real options are to threaten it via ship-based anti-air, or else to send up a figher escort. To get it to not divert to the nearest airport you pretty much need a fighter escort the whole time. Not that many people could live with the knowledge that a couple hundred innocents died by their hands.
On March 19 2014 18:08 mdb wrote: I`m telling you. Military is involved in this imo 100%. Only they have the possibility to make things dissapear in such way.
Glad you`re not running the investigation. Being so certain on such scant evidence is silly.
On March 19 2014 04:05 DeepElemBlues wrote: So where the hell is the plane?
Crashed into a mountain in Central Asia?
At the bottom of the Indian Ocean?
Sitting in a hangar on the Legion of Doom's secret island base?
Honestly, I don't understand why this is being seen as a ridiculous option.
If this thing was hijacked (and yes, that is a big "if"), any such hijackers had a purpose for it. You don't go dark, change course and evade radar just to kill the people on board. You can do that by nosediving straightaway.
Now, they also didn't 9/11 it into any target that we're aware of, so what else do you do with an invisible stolen plane? Surely one of the more reasonable options is to try to land it. It's not beyond possibility that it is or was sitting on an airstrip in one of the Stans.
In fact, at risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, I'd say that's one of the top three:
1. It went deep into the Indian Ocean and ran out of fuel, due to pilot incapacitation/insanity/whatever 2. Hijackers took it, failed at whatever their goal was, and crashed it somewhere in Central Asia 3. Hijackers took it, and succeeded at landing it at some location, probably also in Central Asia.
It's pretty important to note that it is extremely, and I mean extremely unlikely that a non-crew member is able to just highjack a plane without either of the pilots being able to communicate anything to ATC. Possible ways to communicate an actual emergency are as subtle as turning the left wheel on your transponder first instead of the right one (casually rolling over an emergency signal in the process) or tapping your radio one or two more times than necessary. Everyone involved with civilian airplanes is very well trained for these (and other) types of emergencies.
The main scenarios to be considered at this point should be either the pilots (or at the very least the captain) being compromised in some shape or form (not even sure if that's still technically called a "highjacking") or some combination of very unlikely technical emergencies that lead to a crash somewhere deep in the ocean or mountains.
On March 19 2014 20:07 vizuaLize wrote: Just wondering, how did this become so massive?
Wasn't the big headline "Putin" 2 weeks ago?
The mystery of "unknown". Almost no idea where the object is. A lot of information indicating the worst fear and the best hope at the same time. Not enough confirmed information to verify any theory and therefore not enough to discount any theory conclusively.
Combine the power of a lot of families seeking certainty for what happened with the most overanalyzed transport-form in the world, a pretty uncertain search area, the lack of a rational theory about what has happened and we are left with a mesmorizing plot that captivates people.
Sufficient non-specific information to spin an almost eternal amount of theories and not enough conclusive information to make a cohesive rational all-explaining theory is what keeps the media going.
On March 19 2014 18:08 mdb wrote: I`m telling you. Military is involved in this imo 100%. Only they have the possibility to make things dissapear in such way.
Various military's have a good chance of knowing more than their letting out in the interest of hiding capabilities. I find it unlikely that they were directly involved in the disappearance though. Forcing a passenger jet out of the sky isn't an easy thing. More than 100km from shore the only real options are to threaten it via ship-based anti-air, or else to send up a figher escort. To get it to not divert to the nearest airport you pretty much need a fighter escort the whole time. Not that many people could live with the knowledge that a couple hundred innocents died by their hands.
To be fair in the two cases that I know about where civilian airplanes were shot down by the military neither the Soviet Union in 1983 nor the Americans in 1988 were quick about admitting what exactly happened.
However, even in the case of Iran Air Flight 655 which was nothing short of incredibly embarrassing for the US you had an insane amount of factors coming together. In that case a US Navy ship basically confused a climbing Airbus with an attacking fighter plane and it was, after not answering to radio calls (on military frequencies), shot down. Even if someone would like to assume that something remotely similar happened in this case (a military ship confusing a target, being unable to communicate with it and resorting to missiles to get it down) there is still zero explanation for the ship changing course without communication in the first place.
As it stands the biggest single issue is that no one has a real clue on where to start looking for the plane in the first place. As a random example when the Russians shot down the Korean Air Lines flight in 1983 the people involved knew about a general 15-20ish mile radius in which the plane must have went down - it still took a month for everyone to actually gather most of the evidence of the crash: Shoes of the victims.
...now good luck trying to find pieces like that when you don't even know in which ocean you're really supposed to start looking.
On March 19 2014 20:07 vizuaLize wrote: Just wondering, how did this become so massive?
Wasn't the big headline "Putin" 2 weeks ago?
The mystery of "unknown". Almost no idea where the object is. A lot of information indicating the worst fear and the best hope at the same time. Not enough confirmed information to verify any theory and therefore not enough to discount any theory conclusively.
Combine the power of a lot of families seeking certainty for what happened with the most overanalyzed transport-form in the world, a pretty uncertain search area, the lack of a rational theory about what has happened and we are left with a mesmorizing plot that captivates people.
Sufficient non-specific information to spin an almost eternal amount of theories and not enough conclusive information to make a cohesive rational all-explaining theory is what keeps the media going.
Also the Putin Topic is highly controversial. This one isn't and there's no fighting. Just people that wants to know why it happened.
On March 19 2014 18:08 mdb wrote: I`m telling you. Military is involved in this imo 100%. Only they have the possibility to make things dissapear in such way.
Various military's have a good chance of knowing more than their letting out in the interest of hiding capabilities. I find it unlikely that they were directly involved in the disappearance though. Forcing a passenger jet out of the sky isn't an easy thing. More than 100km from shore the only real options are to threaten it via ship-based anti-air, or else to send up a figher escort. To get it to not divert to the nearest airport you pretty much need a fighter escort the whole time. Not that many people could live with the knowledge that a couple hundred innocents died by their hands.
To be fair in the two cases that I know about where civilian airplanes were shot down by the military neither the Soviet Union in 1983 nor the Americans in 1988 were quick about admitting what exactly happened.
However, even in the case of Iran Air Flight 655 which was nothing short of incredibly embarrassing for the US you had an insane amount of factors coming together. In that case a US Navy ship basically confused a climbing Airbus with an attacking fighter plane and it was, after not answering to radio calls (on military frequencies), shot down. Even if someone would like to assume that something remotely similar happened in this case (a military ship confusing a target, being unable to communicate with it and resorting to missiles to get it down) there is still zero explanation for the ship changing course without communication in the first place.
As it stands the biggest single issue is that no one has a real clue on where to start looking for the plane in the first place. As a random example when the Russians shot down the Korean Air Lines flight in 1983 the people involved knew about a general 15-20ish mile radius in which the plane must have went down - it still took a month for everyone to actually gather most of the evidence of the crash: Shoes of the victims.
...now good luck trying to find pieces like that when you don't even know in which ocean you're really supposed to start looking.
Also the Korean flights that been shot down was in a period of crisis and cold war. So shooting a plane was an actual possibility at the time (even though misinformations cause the plane to get shot, since the pilots didn't say that lights was on like on a commercial flight if i recall correctly). A shoot down is really unlikly for me. In thoses cases even after shooting, planes continued to emit and talk with control tower. Basicly some didn't even know they were shot (If i recall the korean air lines where like : "WTF happened ?" and told CT that they were having issues).
But i'm not an expert on the subject. Far from it.
What I'm most scared of is that we'll never know and never find it. Up until now I've always just thought it would be a matter of time until it was found, but I'm starting to consider that it might just have become something top secret and information of its whereabouts will never be released, even if it is found.
"According to a local newspaper, residents of a remote island in the Maldives, Kuda Huvadhoo, spotted a plane at 6:15 a.m. local time on March 8 that could have been the missing Malaysia Airlines 370. Eyewitnesses cited by the paper said they saw "a jumbo jet," white with red stripes across it, flying low and very loudly. The description of a big airplane in those colors is consistent with the Malaysian Boeing 777."
Well if this is true it significantly narrows the search area. It's also a major coincidence that 3 of the 4 landings on the captain's flight simulator were relatively close in the Maldives, India and Sri Lanka.
Its a plane in the air. It overlaps the ground scatter and not vice-versa and its not even in a clearing.
I'm thinking at this point with all the retarded speculation and no evidence of any wrong doing that there was an unlikely accident and the pilots tried to fix it causing the plane to do what it did.