EPTUK Politics Mega-thread - Page 442
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
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FueledUpAndReadyToGo
Netherlands30548 Posts
Those two parts seem like a big unsolvable puzzle to me | ||
KwarK
United States43990 Posts
On November 22 2018 07:44 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote: During the campaigning, did remainers mention Gibraltar and Northern Ireland as an argument to what a headache it would be to leave the EU? Those two parts seem like a big unsolvable puzzle to me Northern Ireland, yes. Especially given the role the EU plays in keeping the peace. Gibraltar isn’t so important because nobody lives there and fuck Spain. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6274 Posts
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
On November 22 2018 14:15 RvB wrote: Brexit only needs a qualified majority. It doesn't have to be unanimous. Spain can't block it by itself. Spain has Veto Powers on everything regarding GIbraltar. And this means, they can pretty much veto the entire thing, unless the UK would accept all stupid demands Spain could think of about Gibraltar. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
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Longshank
1648 Posts
The big uncertainty in this divorce deal is still the UK. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On November 22 2018 23:42 TheDwf wrote: What's the current state of the initiative to gather 48 votes to trigger a vote of no confidence (or something like that) against May? Won't happen until the first vote fails on the withdrawal bill, unless she does something crazy like extend article 50 then there would be a vote straight away. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9847 Posts
On November 23 2018 03:59 TheDwf wrote: So when some Tories were claiming that they were seeking signatures for that, they were just bluffing? The ERG (the hard right anti EU tories led by Reese-Mogg) made a move, and missed the target, fairly significantly if what we are being led to believe is true. There isn't a time limit on this though. The letters they have sent still count towards the 48 needed even if its another 6 months before the rest of the letters appear. However, they do look very stupid having tried and failed so badly at the first hurdle. If the no confidence motion does eventually get there, they would need a huge number of further tory MPs to side with them in order to depose May. To me, it seems much more likely that the DUP will force something by going back on their confidence and supply arrangement than the tories tearing themselves apart due to this factional divide. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On November 23 2018 03:59 TheDwf wrote: So when some Tories were claiming that they were seeking signatures for that, they were just bluffing? It would have worked but Gove and brexiteers of his thinking didn't back the move and want May to stay for now so the ERG couldn't carry enough people with them. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22373 Posts
On November 23 2018 03:59 TheDwf wrote: Correct, and they have been doing so repeatedly over the last year. Its all a show. Everyone wants to appear tough so they can claim to have been tough to voters. But no one actually wants to be in charge because there is no good resolution to Brexit possible.So when some Tories were claiming that they were seeking signatures for that, they were just bluffing? May exists as PM purely because no one else wants to be and she will remain PM until Brexit is over. | ||
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
In this context it's hard to see what why the conservative brexiteers want to oust May and have a leadership contest. They want no deal at all, so if as expected they will vote against the proposed deal, which would lead to no deal at all anyways. If somehow they managed to gather enough votes to trigger an internal leadership contest and oust May, there is no guarantee that they would be able to place a hardline brexiteer as PM, and may even end up with a PM who simply declares to cancel the entire mess. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
If its a proper leadership contest then a cancel the whole thing candidate would never win, the Conservative membership who have the final vote is extremely Eurosceptic. If it was a coronation for a new PM for cancelling brexit then it would split the party forever and probably unleash some pretty unpleasant political forces but that won't happen any of the coronation candidates Hunt, Javid, Gove, Raab are all Eurosceptic. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22373 Posts
On November 23 2018 05:05 Zaros wrote: I'll believe it when it happens. Its easy to talk now but voting No means accepting the hardest possible Brexit and a reset to WTO standards. That + stock market reactions are going to be pretty bad.There are 80+ conservative MPs on record saying they will vote against the deal now. Add in the SNP, DUP, Labour, Green and Lib dems there is no way this will pass. If its a proper leadership contest then a cancel the whole thing candidate would never win, the Conservative membership who have the final vote is extremely Eurosceptic. If it was a coronation for a new PM for cancelling brexit then it would split the party forever and probably unleash some pretty unpleasant political forces but that won't happen any of the coronation candidates Hunt, Javid, Gove, Raab are all Eurosceptic. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On November 23 2018 05:13 Gorsameth wrote: I'll believe it when it happens. Its easy to talk now but voting No means accepting the hardest possible Brexit and a reset to WTO standards. That + stock market reactions are going to be pretty bad. Many Con MPs would prefer that to this deal which threatens the integrity of the UK re Northern Ireland and the implications for Scotland. There is also a core of 6-12 con mps who want to cancel brexit all together who will vote the deal down to try force a second referendum. Then looking outside the conservative party the Labour party wants to cause the maximum chaos so it has the best chance to get into office. Jeremy doesn't care much for the EU and if the conservative government presided over a economic crash he has a very good chance of forcing and winning a general election, there are also many labour mps who want a second referendum and think by voting down the deal they can get one. The SNP want to remain in the EU and break up the UK so again causing chaos is potentially a good way to do that and are unlikely to be seen to be voting for the arch enemy Conservative deal, potentially they could abstain rather than vote against but I would be very surprised if they voted for it. I think the Lib Dems are already committed to voting against the deal. The DUP clearly hate the deal and even withdrawing support from the government over it. These are people who fought a civil war over Northern Ireland they aren't going to back down. The one Green MP won't vote with the conservatives especially when she wants a second referendum. | ||
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
On November 23 2018 04:54 Dangermousecatdog wrote: I wish there is more talk on the actual agreement, which is just a draft. It's 585 pages long and there's not much talk about it, most media prefering to gossip over whether or not May will be deposed or not. In this context it's hard to see what why the conservative brexiteers want to oust May and have a leadership contest. They want no deal at all, so if as expected they will vote against the proposed deal, which would lead to no deal at all anyways. If somehow they managed to gather enough votes to trigger an internal leadership contest and oust May, there is no guarantee that they would be able to place a hardline brexiteer as PM, and may even end up with a PM who simply declares to cancel the entire mess. I agree with you entirely! There is very little information about that easily accessible, I. E. edited and not in raw form of the agreement. Today I listened to part of the debate in Westminster and May just responded to Corbyns criticism by stating that the points he made were indeed related in the agreement. Who's right here? I can't really check. We need a fact finder to evaluate the statements made in parliament on their truthfulness. On government bankroll. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/the-top-40-horrors-lurking-in-the-small-print-of-theresa-mays-brexit-deal/ https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/the-brexit-deal-40-rebuttals-to-mr-steerpikes-40-horrors/ https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/mays-brexit-deal-40-rebuttals-to-no-10s-rebuttals/ https://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/open-europe-responds-to-the-draft-withdrawal-agreement/ https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/draft-brexit-withdrawal-agreement-november https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46192884 There is some stuff on the withdrawal agreement | ||
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