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On November 23 2018 06:06 Zaros wrote:
*snip*
There is some stuff on the withdrawal agreement
thanks for the links!
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Some of the Spectator links require registration.
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On November 23 2018 06:16 Sent. wrote:Some of the Spectator links require registration.
You can register for free but up to you.
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Is the vote for withdrawal agreement scheduled already? If so when?
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On November 23 2018 16:49 Silvanel wrote:
Is the vote for withdrawal agreement scheduled already? If so when?
I think EU leaders are voting on it this weekend, but the UK parliament vote won't be until sometime later in December.
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On November 23 2018 05:20 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2018 05:13 Gorsameth wrote:On November 23 2018 05:05 Zaros wrote:
There are 80+ conservative MPs on record saying they will vote against the deal now. Add in the SNP, DUP, Labour, Green and Lib dems there is no way this will pass.
If its a proper leadership contest then a cancel the whole thing candidate would never win, the Conservative membership who have the final vote is extremely Eurosceptic. If it was a coronation for a new PM for cancelling brexit then it would split the party forever and probably unleash some pretty unpleasant political forces but that won't happen any of the coronation candidates Hunt, Javid, Gove, Raab are all Eurosceptic. I'll believe it when it happens. Its easy to talk now but voting No means accepting the hardest possible Brexit and a reset to WTO standards. That + stock market reactions are going to be pretty bad. Many Con MPs would prefer that to this deal which threatens the integrity of the UK re Northern Ireland and the implications for Scotland. There is also a core of 6-12 con mps who want to cancel brexit all together who will vote the deal down to try force a second referendum. Then looking outside the conservative party the Labour party wants to cause the maximum chaos so it has the best chance to get into office. Jeremy doesn't care much for the EU and if the conservative government presided over a economic crash he has a very good chance of forcing and winning a general election, there are also many labour mps who want a second referendum and think by voting down the deal they can get one. The SNP want to remain in the EU and break up the UK so again causing chaos is potentially a good way to do that and are unlikely to be seen to be voting for the arch enemy Conservative deal, potentially they could abstain rather than vote against but I would be very surprised if they voted for it. I think the Lib Dems are already committed to voting against the deal. The DUP clearly hate the deal and even withdrawing support from the government over it. These are people who fought a civil war over Northern Ireland they aren't going to back down. The one Green MP won't vote with the conservatives especially when she wants a second referendum.
SNP wants to break up Great Britain? Seems unlikely to me. There is no majority in Scotland to leave the uk,not even close I think seeing the last referendum about independence.
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On November 23 2018 17:15 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2018 05:20 Zaros wrote:On November 23 2018 05:13 Gorsameth wrote:On November 23 2018 05:05 Zaros wrote:
There are 80+ conservative MPs on record saying they will vote against the deal now. Add in the SNP, DUP, Labour, Green and Lib dems there is no way this will pass.
If its a proper leadership contest then a cancel the whole thing candidate would never win, the Conservative membership who have the final vote is extremely Eurosceptic. If it was a coronation for a new PM for cancelling brexit then it would split the party forever and probably unleash some pretty unpleasant political forces but that won't happen any of the coronation candidates Hunt, Javid, Gove, Raab are all Eurosceptic. I'll believe it when it happens. Its easy to talk now but voting No means accepting the hardest possible Brexit and a reset to WTO standards. That + stock market reactions are going to be pretty bad. Many Con MPs would prefer that to this deal which threatens the integrity of the UK re Northern Ireland and the implications for Scotland. There is also a core of 6-12 con mps who want to cancel brexit all together who will vote the deal down to try force a second referendum. Then looking outside the conservative party the Labour party wants to cause the maximum chaos so it has the best chance to get into office. Jeremy doesn't care much for the EU and if the conservative government presided over a economic crash he has a very good chance of forcing and winning a general election, there are also many labour mps who want a second referendum and think by voting down the deal they can get one. The SNP want to remain in the EU and break up the UK so again causing chaos is potentially a good way to do that and are unlikely to be seen to be voting for the arch enemy Conservative deal, potentially they could abstain rather than vote against but I would be very surprised if they voted for it. I think the Lib Dems are already committed to voting against the deal. The DUP clearly hate the deal and even withdrawing support from the government over it. These are people who fought a civil war over Northern Ireland they aren't going to back down. The one Green MP won't vote with the conservatives especially when she wants a second referendum. SNP wants to break up Great Britain? Seems unlikely to me. There is no majority in Scotland to leave the uk,not even close I think seeing the last referendum about independence.
If they repeat that after the Brexit vote it would change. Scotland overwhelmingly voted to remain, whereas the independence vote was fairly close.
Scotland has a different political landscape to England and tends to be quite left wing in many ways, they certainly aren't as regressive or backward as English voters when it comes to stuff like immigration (in general).
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On November 23 2018 17:15 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2018 05:20 Zaros wrote:On November 23 2018 05:13 Gorsameth wrote:On November 23 2018 05:05 Zaros wrote:
There are 80+ conservative MPs on record saying they will vote against the deal now. Add in the SNP, DUP, Labour, Green and Lib dems there is no way this will pass.
If its a proper leadership contest then a cancel the whole thing candidate would never win, the Conservative membership who have the final vote is extremely Eurosceptic. If it was a coronation for a new PM for cancelling brexit then it would split the party forever and probably unleash some pretty unpleasant political forces but that won't happen any of the coronation candidates Hunt, Javid, Gove, Raab are all Eurosceptic. I'll believe it when it happens. Its easy to talk now but voting No means accepting the hardest possible Brexit and a reset to WTO standards. That + stock market reactions are going to be pretty bad. Many Con MPs would prefer that to this deal which threatens the integrity of the UK re Northern Ireland and the implications for Scotland. There is also a core of 6-12 con mps who want to cancel brexit all together who will vote the deal down to try force a second referendum. Then looking outside the conservative party the Labour party wants to cause the maximum chaos so it has the best chance to get into office. Jeremy doesn't care much for the EU and if the conservative government presided over a economic crash he has a very good chance of forcing and winning a general election, there are also many labour mps who want a second referendum and think by voting down the deal they can get one. The SNP want to remain in the EU and break up the UK so again causing chaos is potentially a good way to do that and are unlikely to be seen to be voting for the arch enemy Conservative deal, potentially they could abstain rather than vote against but I would be very surprised if they voted for it. I think the Lib Dems are already committed to voting against the deal. The DUP clearly hate the deal and even withdrawing support from the government over it. These are people who fought a civil war over Northern Ireland they aren't going to back down. The one Green MP won't vote with the conservatives especially when she wants a second referendum. SNP wants to break up Great Britain? Seems unlikely to me. There is no majority in Scotland to leave the uk,not even close I think seeing the last referendum about independence.
Certain recent large events might have an impact on that just a little bit..
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On November 23 2018 17:15 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2018 05:20 Zaros wrote:On November 23 2018 05:13 Gorsameth wrote:On November 23 2018 05:05 Zaros wrote:
There are 80+ conservative MPs on record saying they will vote against the deal now. Add in the SNP, DUP, Labour, Green and Lib dems there is no way this will pass.
If its a proper leadership contest then a cancel the whole thing candidate would never win, the Conservative membership who have the final vote is extremely Eurosceptic. If it was a coronation for a new PM for cancelling brexit then it would split the party forever and probably unleash some pretty unpleasant political forces but that won't happen any of the coronation candidates Hunt, Javid, Gove, Raab are all Eurosceptic. I'll believe it when it happens. Its easy to talk now but voting No means accepting the hardest possible Brexit and a reset to WTO standards. That + stock market reactions are going to be pretty bad. Many Con MPs would prefer that to this deal which threatens the integrity of the UK re Northern Ireland and the implications for Scotland. There is also a core of 6-12 con mps who want to cancel brexit all together who will vote the deal down to try force a second referendum. Then looking outside the conservative party the Labour party wants to cause the maximum chaos so it has the best chance to get into office. Jeremy doesn't care much for the EU and if the conservative government presided over a economic crash he has a very good chance of forcing and winning a general election, there are also many labour mps who want a second referendum and think by voting down the deal they can get one. The SNP want to remain in the EU and break up the UK so again causing chaos is potentially a good way to do that and are unlikely to be seen to be voting for the arch enemy Conservative deal, potentially they could abstain rather than vote against but I would be very surprised if they voted for it. I think the Lib Dems are already committed to voting against the deal. The DUP clearly hate the deal and even withdrawing support from the government over it. These are people who fought a civil war over Northern Ireland they aren't going to back down. The one Green MP won't vote with the conservatives especially when she wants a second referendum. SNP wants to break up Great Britain? Seems unlikely to me. There is no majority in Scotland to leave the uk,not even close I think seeing the last referendum about independence.
In the last referendum about independence, one of the main arguments of remaining in UK was that remaining in UK equaled remaining in EU. Then the vote for UK leaving EU happened and essentially removed the main argument for Scotland staying in UK.
Not sure how you get it to be not even close considering it was 44.7% vs 55.3% in 2014 and due to Brexit it should be a lot stronger in favor of independence now.
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On November 23 2018 17:15 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2018 05:20 Zaros wrote:On November 23 2018 05:13 Gorsameth wrote:On November 23 2018 05:05 Zaros wrote:
There are 80+ conservative MPs on record saying they will vote against the deal now. Add in the SNP, DUP, Labour, Green and Lib dems there is no way this will pass.
If its a proper leadership contest then a cancel the whole thing candidate would never win, the Conservative membership who have the final vote is extremely Eurosceptic. If it was a coronation for a new PM for cancelling brexit then it would split the party forever and probably unleash some pretty unpleasant political forces but that won't happen any of the coronation candidates Hunt, Javid, Gove, Raab are all Eurosceptic. I'll believe it when it happens. Its easy to talk now but voting No means accepting the hardest possible Brexit and a reset to WTO standards. That + stock market reactions are going to be pretty bad. Many Con MPs would prefer that to this deal which threatens the integrity of the UK re Northern Ireland and the implications for Scotland. There is also a core of 6-12 con mps who want to cancel brexit all together who will vote the deal down to try force a second referendum. Then looking outside the conservative party the Labour party wants to cause the maximum chaos so it has the best chance to get into office. Jeremy doesn't care much for the EU and if the conservative government presided over a economic crash he has a very good chance of forcing and winning a general election, there are also many labour mps who want a second referendum and think by voting down the deal they can get one. The SNP want to remain in the EU and break up the UK so again causing chaos is potentially a good way to do that and are unlikely to be seen to be voting for the arch enemy Conservative deal, potentially they could abstain rather than vote against but I would be very surprised if they voted for it. I think the Lib Dems are already committed to voting against the deal. The DUP clearly hate the deal and even withdrawing support from the government over it. These are people who fought a civil war over Northern Ireland they aren't going to back down. The one Green MP won't vote with the conservatives especially when she wants a second referendum. SNP wants to break up Great Britain? Seems unlikely to me. There is no majority in Scotland to leave the uk,not even close I think seeing the last referendum about independence.
Regardless of the referendum and in addition to what the ppl above already mentioned, SNP is a political party with its own points. They don't represent "all of Scotland", but rather just their constituents. And the SNP were one of the main proponents of the "leave UK" side of that referendum, and would probably like to have another go at it if the opportunity presents itself.
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On November 23 2018 17:48 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2018 17:15 pmh wrote:On November 23 2018 05:20 Zaros wrote:On November 23 2018 05:13 Gorsameth wrote:On November 23 2018 05:05 Zaros wrote:
There are 80+ conservative MPs on record saying they will vote against the deal now. Add in the SNP, DUP, Labour, Green and Lib dems there is no way this will pass.
If its a proper leadership contest then a cancel the whole thing candidate would never win, the Conservative membership who have the final vote is extremely Eurosceptic. If it was a coronation for a new PM for cancelling brexit then it would split the party forever and probably unleash some pretty unpleasant political forces but that won't happen any of the coronation candidates Hunt, Javid, Gove, Raab are all Eurosceptic. I'll believe it when it happens. Its easy to talk now but voting No means accepting the hardest possible Brexit and a reset to WTO standards. That + stock market reactions are going to be pretty bad. Many Con MPs would prefer that to this deal which threatens the integrity of the UK re Northern Ireland and the implications for Scotland. There is also a core of 6-12 con mps who want to cancel brexit all together who will vote the deal down to try force a second referendum. Then looking outside the conservative party the Labour party wants to cause the maximum chaos so it has the best chance to get into office. Jeremy doesn't care much for the EU and if the conservative government presided over a economic crash he has a very good chance of forcing and winning a general election, there are also many labour mps who want a second referendum and think by voting down the deal they can get one. The SNP want to remain in the EU and break up the UK so again causing chaos is potentially a good way to do that and are unlikely to be seen to be voting for the arch enemy Conservative deal, potentially they could abstain rather than vote against but I would be very surprised if they voted for it. I think the Lib Dems are already committed to voting against the deal. The DUP clearly hate the deal and even withdrawing support from the government over it. These are people who fought a civil war over Northern Ireland they aren't going to back down. The one Green MP won't vote with the conservatives especially when she wants a second referendum. SNP wants to break up Great Britain? Seems unlikely to me. There is no majority in Scotland to leave the uk,not even close I think seeing the last referendum about independence. Certain recent large events might have an impact on that just a little bit..
That might be so. On the other hand, Brexit might also have shown that leaving a union is not as easy as it seems. Scotlands relationship to the UK is not completely unsimilar to that of the UK and EU.
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On November 23 2018 19:00 Longshank wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2018 17:48 Excludos wrote:On November 23 2018 17:15 pmh wrote:On November 23 2018 05:20 Zaros wrote:On November 23 2018 05:13 Gorsameth wrote:On November 23 2018 05:05 Zaros wrote:
There are 80+ conservative MPs on record saying they will vote against the deal now. Add in the SNP, DUP, Labour, Green and Lib dems there is no way this will pass.
If its a proper leadership contest then a cancel the whole thing candidate would never win, the Conservative membership who have the final vote is extremely Eurosceptic. If it was a coronation for a new PM for cancelling brexit then it would split the party forever and probably unleash some pretty unpleasant political forces but that won't happen any of the coronation candidates Hunt, Javid, Gove, Raab are all Eurosceptic. I'll believe it when it happens. Its easy to talk now but voting No means accepting the hardest possible Brexit and a reset to WTO standards. That + stock market reactions are going to be pretty bad. Many Con MPs would prefer that to this deal which threatens the integrity of the UK re Northern Ireland and the implications for Scotland. There is also a core of 6-12 con mps who want to cancel brexit all together who will vote the deal down to try force a second referendum. Then looking outside the conservative party the Labour party wants to cause the maximum chaos so it has the best chance to get into office. Jeremy doesn't care much for the EU and if the conservative government presided over a economic crash he has a very good chance of forcing and winning a general election, there are also many labour mps who want a second referendum and think by voting down the deal they can get one. The SNP want to remain in the EU and break up the UK so again causing chaos is potentially a good way to do that and are unlikely to be seen to be voting for the arch enemy Conservative deal, potentially they could abstain rather than vote against but I would be very surprised if they voted for it. I think the Lib Dems are already committed to voting against the deal. The DUP clearly hate the deal and even withdrawing support from the government over it. These are people who fought a civil war over Northern Ireland they aren't going to back down. The one Green MP won't vote with the conservatives especially when she wants a second referendum. SNP wants to break up Great Britain? Seems unlikely to me. There is no majority in Scotland to leave the uk,not even close I think seeing the last referendum about independence. Certain recent large events might have an impact on that just a little bit.. That might be so. On the other hand, Brexit might also have shown that leaving a union is not as easy as it seems. Scotlands relationship to the UK is not completely unsimilar to that of the UK and EU.
Sure. However Scotland has a lot more to gain with good trade agreements with the EU over those to the UK, which puts them in a stronger position to leave UK if that entails rejoining the EU. This makes leaving a union easier than when you're just leaving for no apparent benefit or back up plan.
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From my understanding of the political and public debate, which as we've seen on the last page is limited, the people of Scotland are acutely aware of the fact, that this is an immigration country that needs and wants people to come in. Whereas my impression of the English government is: ending free movement for all and better kick out all that we can while we're at it, even though they're basically citizens but their accent is funny and they're not pale enough to have our sympathy.
(sorry for the hyperbole)
personally, I don't think another indy ref is going to happen before real Brexit, that is 2021, or when the actual terms and consequences, both economical as well as personal are finally tangible and less prone to be according to your political affiliation. And without the uk blocking a Scottish bid at a eu membership and the UK having to adhere to eu standards, Scotland might as well not have a southern border with England and have their say in eu matters.
We'll see what this Gibraltar business is all about.
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On November 23 2018 19:37 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2018 19:00 Longshank wrote:On November 23 2018 17:48 Excludos wrote:On November 23 2018 17:15 pmh wrote:On November 23 2018 05:20 Zaros wrote:On November 23 2018 05:13 Gorsameth wrote:On November 23 2018 05:05 Zaros wrote:
There are 80+ conservative MPs on record saying they will vote against the deal now. Add in the SNP, DUP, Labour, Green and Lib dems there is no way this will pass.
If its a proper leadership contest then a cancel the whole thing candidate would never win, the Conservative membership who have the final vote is extremely Eurosceptic. If it was a coronation for a new PM for cancelling brexit then it would split the party forever and probably unleash some pretty unpleasant political forces but that won't happen any of the coronation candidates Hunt, Javid, Gove, Raab are all Eurosceptic. I'll believe it when it happens. Its easy to talk now but voting No means accepting the hardest possible Brexit and a reset to WTO standards. That + stock market reactions are going to be pretty bad. Many Con MPs would prefer that to this deal which threatens the integrity of the UK re Northern Ireland and the implications for Scotland. There is also a core of 6-12 con mps who want to cancel brexit all together who will vote the deal down to try force a second referendum. Then looking outside the conservative party the Labour party wants to cause the maximum chaos so it has the best chance to get into office. Jeremy doesn't care much for the EU and if the conservative government presided over a economic crash he has a very good chance of forcing and winning a general election, there are also many labour mps who want a second referendum and think by voting down the deal they can get one. The SNP want to remain in the EU and break up the UK so again causing chaos is potentially a good way to do that and are unlikely to be seen to be voting for the arch enemy Conservative deal, potentially they could abstain rather than vote against but I would be very surprised if they voted for it. I think the Lib Dems are already committed to voting against the deal. The DUP clearly hate the deal and even withdrawing support from the government over it. These are people who fought a civil war over Northern Ireland they aren't going to back down. The one Green MP won't vote with the conservatives especially when she wants a second referendum. SNP wants to break up Great Britain? Seems unlikely to me. There is no majority in Scotland to leave the uk,not even close I think seeing the last referendum about independence. Certain recent large events might have an impact on that just a little bit.. That might be so. On the other hand, Brexit might also have shown that leaving a union is not as easy as it seems. Scotlands relationship to the UK is not completely unsimilar to that of the UK and EU. Sure. However Scotland has a lot more to gain with good trade agreements with the EU over those to the UK, which puts them in a stronger position to leave UK if that entails rejoining the EU. This makes leaving a union easier than when you're just leaving for no apparent benefit or back up plan.
Can you explain why Scotland has a lot more to gain with good trade agreements with the EU over those to the UK? According to the Scottish government, 61% of Scotland's total exports go to the rest of the UK, which is nearly four times the amount of trade with the EU market.
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On November 23 2018 19:47 Sent. wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2018 19:37 Excludos wrote:On November 23 2018 19:00 Longshank wrote:On November 23 2018 17:48 Excludos wrote:On November 23 2018 17:15 pmh wrote:On November 23 2018 05:20 Zaros wrote:On November 23 2018 05:13 Gorsameth wrote:On November 23 2018 05:05 Zaros wrote:
There are 80+ conservative MPs on record saying they will vote against the deal now. Add in the SNP, DUP, Labour, Green and Lib dems there is no way this will pass.
If its a proper leadership contest then a cancel the whole thing candidate would never win, the Conservative membership who have the final vote is extremely Eurosceptic. If it was a coronation for a new PM for cancelling brexit then it would split the party forever and probably unleash some pretty unpleasant political forces but that won't happen any of the coronation candidates Hunt, Javid, Gove, Raab are all Eurosceptic. I'll believe it when it happens. Its easy to talk now but voting No means accepting the hardest possible Brexit and a reset to WTO standards. That + stock market reactions are going to be pretty bad. Many Con MPs would prefer that to this deal which threatens the integrity of the UK re Northern Ireland and the implications for Scotland. There is also a core of 6-12 con mps who want to cancel brexit all together who will vote the deal down to try force a second referendum. Then looking outside the conservative party the Labour party wants to cause the maximum chaos so it has the best chance to get into office. Jeremy doesn't care much for the EU and if the conservative government presided over a economic crash he has a very good chance of forcing and winning a general election, there are also many labour mps who want a second referendum and think by voting down the deal they can get one. The SNP want to remain in the EU and break up the UK so again causing chaos is potentially a good way to do that and are unlikely to be seen to be voting for the arch enemy Conservative deal, potentially they could abstain rather than vote against but I would be very surprised if they voted for it. I think the Lib Dems are already committed to voting against the deal. The DUP clearly hate the deal and even withdrawing support from the government over it. These are people who fought a civil war over Northern Ireland they aren't going to back down. The one Green MP won't vote with the conservatives especially when she wants a second referendum. SNP wants to break up Great Britain? Seems unlikely to me. There is no majority in Scotland to leave the uk,not even close I think seeing the last referendum about independence. Certain recent large events might have an impact on that just a little bit.. That might be so. On the other hand, Brexit might also have shown that leaving a union is not as easy as it seems. Scotlands relationship to the UK is not completely unsimilar to that of the UK and EU. Sure. However Scotland has a lot more to gain with good trade agreements with the EU over those to the UK, which puts them in a stronger position to leave UK if that entails rejoining the EU. This makes leaving a union easier than when you're just leaving for no apparent benefit or back up plan. Can you explain why Scotland has a lot more to gain with good trade agreements with the EU over those to the UK? According to the Scottish government, 61% of Scotland's total exports go to the rest of the UK, which is nearly four times the amount of trade with the EU market.
You are correct, my memory had it the other way around. The economic benefits for joining EU are not bigger than the potential losses for leaving the UK.
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On November 23 2018 20:11 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2018 19:47 Sent. wrote:On November 23 2018 19:37 Excludos wrote:On November 23 2018 19:00 Longshank wrote:On November 23 2018 17:48 Excludos wrote:On November 23 2018 17:15 pmh wrote:On November 23 2018 05:20 Zaros wrote:On November 23 2018 05:13 Gorsameth wrote:On November 23 2018 05:05 Zaros wrote:
There are 80+ conservative MPs on record saying they will vote against the deal now. Add in the SNP, DUP, Labour, Green and Lib dems there is no way this will pass.
If its a proper leadership contest then a cancel the whole thing candidate would never win, the Conservative membership who have the final vote is extremely Eurosceptic. If it was a coronation for a new PM for cancelling brexit then it would split the party forever and probably unleash some pretty unpleasant political forces but that won't happen any of the coronation candidates Hunt, Javid, Gove, Raab are all Eurosceptic. I'll believe it when it happens. Its easy to talk now but voting No means accepting the hardest possible Brexit and a reset to WTO standards. That + stock market reactions are going to be pretty bad. Many Con MPs would prefer that to this deal which threatens the integrity of the UK re Northern Ireland and the implications for Scotland. There is also a core of 6-12 con mps who want to cancel brexit all together who will vote the deal down to try force a second referendum. Then looking outside the conservative party the Labour party wants to cause the maximum chaos so it has the best chance to get into office. Jeremy doesn't care much for the EU and if the conservative government presided over a economic crash he has a very good chance of forcing and winning a general election, there are also many labour mps who want a second referendum and think by voting down the deal they can get one. The SNP want to remain in the EU and break up the UK so again causing chaos is potentially a good way to do that and are unlikely to be seen to be voting for the arch enemy Conservative deal, potentially they could abstain rather than vote against but I would be very surprised if they voted for it. I think the Lib Dems are already committed to voting against the deal. The DUP clearly hate the deal and even withdrawing support from the government over it. These are people who fought a civil war over Northern Ireland they aren't going to back down. The one Green MP won't vote with the conservatives especially when she wants a second referendum. SNP wants to break up Great Britain? Seems unlikely to me. There is no majority in Scotland to leave the uk,not even close I think seeing the last referendum about independence. Certain recent large events might have an impact on that just a little bit.. That might be so. On the other hand, Brexit might also have shown that leaving a union is not as easy as it seems. Scotlands relationship to the UK is not completely unsimilar to that of the UK and EU. Sure. However Scotland has a lot more to gain with good trade agreements with the EU over those to the UK, which puts them in a stronger position to leave UK if that entails rejoining the EU. This makes leaving a union easier than when you're just leaving for no apparent benefit or back up plan. Can you explain why Scotland has a lot more to gain with good trade agreements with the EU over those to the UK? According to the Scottish government, 61% of Scotland's total exports go to the rest of the UK, which is nearly four times the amount of trade with the EU market. You are correct, my memory had it the other way around. The economic benefits for joining EU are not bigger than the potential losses for leaving the UK.
Well, it doesn't quite work like that either. Firstly, those figures exclude oil and gas, which are a significant portion of Scottish exports.
But moreover, it's not as if England is suddenly going to stop buying Scottish Whisky, and if there is infrastructure laid down for the petroleum industry, that probably also restricts things... and if there isn't, that is a very globalized market, so shipping to London can be swapped for shipping to Hamburg or Rotterdam with very little hassle. But in the end, yes, they still share quite a small island, and even if Scotland leaves the union, they are kinda forced together.
However, things like the fishing industry depends heavily on EU regulation, which only EU countries get to influence. Similarly, financial services now make up 7% of the Scottish economy, and unless you think that is all intra-UK, a lot will depend on interoperability with other EU countries (so for many of the same reasons London doesn't want to leave the EU, Scotland doesn't either).
Sectors that would take a serious hit are things like defense contracting (mostly UK defense industry) and tourism (mostly English tourists).
So it's not as simple as looking at a number and saying "that one is 4x bigger, so Scotland needs the UK more than it does the EU". However, it's safe to say that leaving the UK NOR leaving the EU is in Scotland's best interest, so May will have to work very hard to achieve a Brexit deal that doesn't completely fuck over the Scots. Because economic arguments are only part of the equation, and Scottish Nationalism is also based on irrational arguments, such as pride and resentment.
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On November 22 2018 14:39 mahrgell wrote:Show nested quote +On November 22 2018 14:15 RvB wrote:
Brexit only needs a qualified majority. It doesn't have to be unanimous. Spain can't block it by itself. Spain has Veto Powers on everything regarding GIbraltar. And this means, they can pretty much veto the entire thing, unless the UK would accept all stupid demands Spain could think of about Gibraltar.
Source? From what I know it's qualified majority. Effectively it doesn't matter since they want unanimity I guess.
Under EU rules, the withdrawal treaty is adopted by a majority and not unanimity, so a single state cannot block it. However, EU leaders want unity on this most politically sensitive matter.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-gibraltar/eu-struggles-to-agree-on-gibraltar-before-brexit-summit-idUKKCN1NS001
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It's a custom, which is usually respected in the Council.
In practice, the Council targeted unanimous decisions, and qualified majority voting was often simply used as a means to pressure compromises for consensus. For example, in 2008, 128 out of 147 Council decisions were unanimous. Within the remaining decisions, there was a total of 32 abstentions and 8 votes against the respective decision. These opposing votes were cast twice by Luxembourg and once by each of Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, and Portugal. wikipedia
Spanish demands would have to be very unreasonable to justify ignoring that custom.
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United States42925 Posts
On November 23 2018 17:15 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On November 23 2018 05:20 Zaros wrote:On November 23 2018 05:13 Gorsameth wrote:On November 23 2018 05:05 Zaros wrote:
There are 80+ conservative MPs on record saying they will vote against the deal now. Add in the SNP, DUP, Labour, Green and Lib dems there is no way this will pass.
If its a proper leadership contest then a cancel the whole thing candidate would never win, the Conservative membership who have the final vote is extremely Eurosceptic. If it was a coronation for a new PM for cancelling brexit then it would split the party forever and probably unleash some pretty unpleasant political forces but that won't happen any of the coronation candidates Hunt, Javid, Gove, Raab are all Eurosceptic. I'll believe it when it happens. Its easy to talk now but voting No means accepting the hardest possible Brexit and a reset to WTO standards. That + stock market reactions are going to be pretty bad. Many Con MPs would prefer that to this deal which threatens the integrity of the UK re Northern Ireland and the implications for Scotland. There is also a core of 6-12 con mps who want to cancel brexit all together who will vote the deal down to try force a second referendum. Then looking outside the conservative party the Labour party wants to cause the maximum chaos so it has the best chance to get into office. Jeremy doesn't care much for the EU and if the conservative government presided over a economic crash he has a very good chance of forcing and winning a general election, there are also many labour mps who want a second referendum and think by voting down the deal they can get one. The SNP want to remain in the EU and break up the UK so again causing chaos is potentially a good way to do that and are unlikely to be seen to be voting for the arch enemy Conservative deal, potentially they could abstain rather than vote against but I would be very surprised if they voted for it. I think the Lib Dems are already committed to voting against the deal. The DUP clearly hate the deal and even withdrawing support from the government over it. These are people who fought a civil war over Northern Ireland they aren't going to back down. The one Green MP won't vote with the conservatives especially when she wants a second referendum. SNP wants to break up Great Britain? Seems unlikely to me. There is no majority in Scotland to leave the uk,not even close I think seeing the last referendum about independence.
Breaking up Great Britain is literally the purpose of the SNP. The Scottish National Party are trying to make a Scottish nation. Not sure where you were confused by them.
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On November 24 2018 00:15 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On November 22 2018 14:39 mahrgell wrote:On November 22 2018 14:15 RvB wrote:
Brexit only needs a qualified majority. It doesn't have to be unanimous. Spain can't block it by itself. Spain has Veto Powers on everything regarding GIbraltar. And this means, they can pretty much veto the entire thing, unless the UK would accept all stupid demands Spain could think of about Gibraltar. Source? From what I know it's qualified majority. Effectively it doesn't matter since they want unanimity I guess. Show nested quote +
Under EU rules, the withdrawal treaty is adopted by a majority and not unanimity, so a single state cannot block it. However, EU leaders want unity on this most politically sensitive matter.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-gibraltar/eu-struggles-to-agree-on-gibraltar-before-brexit-summit-idUKKCN1NS001
In its draft Brexit negotiating guidelines, the European Council identified future arrangements for Gibraltar as one of its 26 core principles.
It wrote: "After the UK leaves the union, no agreement between the EU and the UK may apply to the territory of Gibraltar without agreement between Spain and the UK."
Brussels officials were quoted by the Guardian as saying the EU was standing up for its members interests.
"That means Spain now," a senior EU official told the newspaper.
"Any extension of the deal [after withdrawal] to Gibraltar... will require the support of Spain. [The text] recognises that there are two parties to this dispute."
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39453535
The same ruling exists for Northern Ireland and and Ireland.
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EPT
