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On November 23 2018 19:43 Artisreal wrote:
From my understanding of the political and public debate, which as we've seen on the last page is limited, the people of Scotland are acutely aware of the fact, that this is an immigration country that needs and wants people to come in. Whereas my impression of the English government is: ending free movement for all and better kick out all that we can while we're at it, even though they're basically citizens but their accent is funny and they're not pale enough to have our sympathy.
(sorry for the hyperbole)
personally, I don't think another indy ref is going to happen before real Brexit, that is 2021, or when the actual terms and consequences, both economical as well as personal are finally tangible and less prone to be according to your political affiliation. And without the uk blocking a Scottish bid at a eu membership and the UK having to adhere to eu standards, Scotland might as well not have a southern border with England and have their say in eu matters.
We'll see what this Gibraltar business is all about.
No, you're basically right. This is a vanilla Tory government. Cameron's version was a LOT closer to the centre and immigration friendly (and even his wasn't very friendly).
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Are UK manufacturing companies starting to see an upswing in volumes due to continental customers increasing their buffers prior to a hard exit? Don't really know where to find data for something like that.
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House of commons is supposed to vote between 10-12 December.
The media are not helping in getting the deal through. The narrative I saw was "well,when the deal doesn't get through anything can happen,including a 2nd referendum"
Which is off course what "everyone" wants. At first I thought labour would help get it through in the end after lots of protesting but now I have my doubts about it all.
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On November 26 2018 23:25 pmh wrote:
House of commons is supposed to vote between 10-12 December.
The media are not helping in getting the deal through. The narrative I saw was "well,when the deal doesn't get through anything can happen,including a 2nd referendum"
Which is off course what "everyone" wants. At first I thought labour would help get it through in the end after lots of protesting but now I have my doubts about it all.
There is no way Labour will help get the deal through. Some Labour MPs might rebel against their party, but Corbyn has already said that Labour will vote it down.
Arlene Foster has also said that the DUP can't vote for this deal.
You might notice that all the EU leaders are glowing and preening about what an amazing deal it is. This doesn't exactly fill me with confidence that its a good deal for the UK.
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On November 26 2018 23:27 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2018 23:25 pmh wrote:
House of commons is supposed to vote between 10-12 December.
The media are not helping in getting the deal through. The narrative I saw was "well,when the deal doesn't get through anything can happen,including a 2nd referendum"
Which is off course what "everyone" wants. At first I thought labour would help get it through in the end after lots of protesting but now I have my doubts about it all. There is no way Labour will help get the deal through. Some Labour MPs might rebel against their party, but Corbyn has already said that Labour will vote it down. Arlene Foster has also said that the DUP can't vote for this deal. You might notice that all the EU leaders are glowing and preening about what an amazing deal it is. This doesn't exactly fill me with confidence that its a good deal for the UK. What would be a better deal with the UK when you consider that the four freedoms are a package deal that is non-negotiable?
And what alternative is there at this point? Its likely this deal or no deal at all and a reset to WTO standards.
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On November 26 2018 23:32 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 26 2018 23:27 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 26 2018 23:25 pmh wrote:
House of commons is supposed to vote between 10-12 December.
The media are not helping in getting the deal through. The narrative I saw was "well,when the deal doesn't get through anything can happen,including a 2nd referendum"
Which is off course what "everyone" wants. At first I thought labour would help get it through in the end after lots of protesting but now I have my doubts about it all. There is no way Labour will help get the deal through. Some Labour MPs might rebel against their party, but Corbyn has already said that Labour will vote it down. Arlene Foster has also said that the DUP can't vote for this deal. You might notice that all the EU leaders are glowing and preening about what an amazing deal it is. This doesn't exactly fill me with confidence that its a good deal for the UK. What would be a better deal with the UK when you consider that the four freedoms are a package deal that is non-negotiable? And what alternative is there at this point? Its likely this deal or no deal at all and a reset to WTO standards.
I'm not saying there's an alternative. The 'bad deal' option was taken when we decided to honour the referendum result. It was always going to be this way.
What baffles me is the idea of giving parliament a meaningful vote on whether or not take a deal that is, in essence, a giveaway of huge amounts of money, both now and in the future, for absolutely no gain.
Of course parliament will vote it down.
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It baffles me why parliament would vote the bill down. This is a worse than than staying in the EU, so instead of more of a breather time to sort out issues, we will go even deeper in the abyss to spite The Conservative/ Theresa May and just have no deal at all. I suppose in both parties are thinking that tough guy politics will play to the electorate. The Lib Dems are just useless at the moment.
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On November 27 2018 00:16 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
It baffles me why parliament would vote the bill down. This is a worse than than staying in the EU, so instead of more of a breather time to sort out issues, we will go even deeper in the abyss to spite The Conservative/ Theresa May and just have no deal at all. I suppose in both parties are thinking that tough guy politics will play to the electorate. The Lib Dems are just useless at the moment.
Labour are hoping to worm their way into government I think. This deal is probably no different to any deal Kier Starmer could negotiate, but with slightly different wording in places. They are thinking that if they keep voting against everything the tories try to do then the resulting standstill will look bad for the tories and good for Labour. Its pathetic to play with the future of our country like this, but all parties are guilty of it.
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United States42925 Posts
It’s a clusterfuck. Labour want to vote it down but they don’t want to oppose it. We have an opposition with the stance “we don’t disagree with the bill and we don’t really think we can do a better one but we also don’t want to agree with the government so we’re just going to wait and see”. The EU looks like it may devastate the political integrity of both parties. This issue has completely overshadowed Corbyn’s opposition. Labour are desperately crying for leadership, as is the country as a whole, but Corbyn doesn’t think he can win against New Labour so he’s refusing to take the fight. The UK is politically paralyzed and it’s really turning me against Corbyn.
May is obviously terrible, but at least she’s able to lead the country, even if she’s leading it into the abyss. Corbyn refuses to take a stance on the abyss because he’s afraid of conflict with those who disagree.
I’m really disappointed in the political establishment of the UK. Not at all surprised, but really disappointed none the less.
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On November 27 2018 02:12 KwarK wrote:
It’s a clusterfuck. Labour want to vote it down but they don’t want to oppose it. We have an opposition with the stance “we don’t disagree with the bill and we don’t really think we can do a better one but we also don’t want to agree with the government so we’re just going to wait and see”. The EU looks like it may devastate the political integrity of both parties. This issue has completely overshadowed Corbyn’s opposition. Labour are desperately crying for leadership, as is the country as a whole, but Corbyn doesn’t think he can win against New Labour so he’s refusing to take the fight. The UK is politically paralyzed and it’s really turning me against
Corbyn.
May is obviously terrible, but at least she’s able to lead the country, even if she’s leading it into the abyss. Corbyn refuses to take a stance on the abyss because he’s afraid of conflict with those who disagree.
I’m really disappointed in the political establishment of the UK. Not at all surprised, but really disappointed none the less.
Well your in luck because it looks like Gove, Rudd and co are going to depose May if the deal fails and take over on a permanently joining EFTA platform with the backing of Labour MPs.
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So.. you think we are in luck because you believe that they want to, and can; vote no deal, then depose May, and then pretty much join the same deal May is trying to push through. Welcome to UK politics 2018.
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On November 27 2018 03:47 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
So.. you think we are in luck because you believe that they want to, and can; vote no deal, then depose May, and then pretty much join the same deal May is trying to push through. Welcome to UK politics 2018.
I said Kwark is in luck as it seems like a better outcome for what he wants, EFTA is better than the current deal but its not really Brexit.
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I'm pointing out that your scenario seems fantastical and unlikely. It'll be a strange result if the politicians which after deposing May, are vehemently anti-EU, will then negotiate and accept EFTA after all of this hustle and bustle, to join the single market, with having to pay to the EU for the privilege and accept its rules and regulations of the single market but without a say, and accept free movement of people within the EU and EFTA states, which is more contentious than the agreement May is trying to push through in the first place.
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On November 27 2018 04:06 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
I'm pointing out that your scenario seems fantastical and unlikely. It'll be a strange result if the politicians which after deposing May, are vehemently anti-EU, will then negotiate and accept EFTA after all of this hustle and bustle, to join the single market, with having to pay to the EU for the privilege and accept its rules and regulations of the single market but without a say, and accept free movement of people within the EU and EFTA states, which is more contentious than the agreement May is trying to push through in the first place.
The politicians which would oust may in this scenario are all Remainers apart from Gove who seems to have flipped 180 in his position.
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So you did all this for... Staying in the EU whiteout any power?
Much symphaty from Switzerland (and probably norway), we get/are there from the other end.
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I'm hoping for no deal at this point but who knows what will happen.
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If Theresa May cannot push a bill that is not "brexit" enough for parliament, then what chance willl others have to push through an agreement that is more pro-EU especially with a lesser democractic mandate? Unless they beleive that parliamant actually wants to remain in the EU? Corbyn is not for remaining in the EU, and who knows what Gove thinks, except for his lust for power?
Hey, it'll be great if it was to occur, as in essence it would be to remain as close with the EU as possible whilst being technically out of it, but I simply don't see it happening.
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On November 27 2018 04:16 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
If Theresa May cannot push a bill that is not "brexit" enough for parliament, then what chance willl others have to push through an agreement that is more pro-EU especially with a lesser democractic mandate? Unless they beleive that parliamant actually wants to remain in the EU? Corbyn is not for remaining in the EU, and who knows what Gove thinks, except for his lust for power?
Hey, it'll be great if it was to occur, as in essence it would be to remain as close with the EU as possible whilst being technically out of it, but I simply don't see it happening.
Well any new way forward that isnt no deal requires government backing, so May would have to go. You then have say Gove elected as an emergency PM and puts an EFTA deal to parliament which would very likely pass.
If May stays as PM or there is someone else with no Plan or winnable plan then they can ignore all other votes such as EFTA or a 2nd referendum as much as they like because the legislation has to be introduced via the government. We would then default to No Deal in March.
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Gove himself lost to May in the conservative leadership process. No deal is the default if the bill fail in parliament. Only if the conservatives trigger a leadership contest and May loses it can she be deposed of, and I think that you have forgotten that Gove himself lost to May in the conservative leadership process before. Even if he did win, what would be the chances that he can pass a more pro-EU agreement if parliament voted down the more anti-EU agreement? The scenario is fantastical.
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On November 27 2018 04:40 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
Gove himself lost to May in the conservative leadership process. No deal is the default if the bill fail in parliament. Only if the conservatives trigger a leadership contest and May loses it can she be deposed of, and I think that you have forgotten that Gove himself lost to May in the conservative leadership process before. Even if he did win, what would be the chances that he can pass a more pro-EU agreement if parliament voted down the more anti-EU agreement? The scenario is fantastical.
I don't think you understand why the deal is being voted down and that most MPs are very pro EU.
If you go closer to the EU with an agreement then backbench Labour come on side and if it fixes the problems for the union like EFTA would then so do the DUP and conservative unionists leaving only the ERG and anti-conservatives to vote against.
Meanwhile:
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EPT
