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On August 04 2017 19:32 bardtown wrote:Show nested quote +On August 04 2017 19:29 kollin wrote:On August 04 2017 11:20 Danglars wrote:On August 03 2017 23:03 kollin wrote:On August 03 2017 21:24 Danglars wrote:On August 02 2017 07:26 LegalLord wrote:
It's of course a loaded question to put the consequences of Brexit in terms of personal effect on the family. Thinking about "the economy" in the abstract is, for the common man, different than thinking about self and family. But frankly it's the same reality - and some people are willing to acknowledge that.
There are things that matter more than economics and especially short term economics. It's not reasonable to just assume the worst about people because an economic hit is acceptable for the purposes of a desired result. A little more charity on the motivations of the 65+ demographic would go a long way. The irony of the retired telling those still working who voted against leaving that Brexit is worth their jobs is palpable. If only there was a mechanism wherein the young still working converted into people 65+, then we'd have a great time seeing both sides. The age of retirement in Britain has already increased as a result of the economic damage caused by Brexit. That's hilarious. You will attribute absolutely anything negative to Brexit. The age of retirement was going up regardless. We've had a lot of good weather this summer caused by Brexit.
Sorry, the Oxford University study which indicated increases in retirement age due to Brexit last January was clearly misguided, because you disagree.
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Conflating two different things. They said the retirement age might need to be increased if migrant numbers are severely reduced. This is purely hypothetical and nothing to do with the rise that actually happened because we have an ageing population. I think you're probably aware that you're misrepresenting reality right now. But maybe you're just having paranoid visions because the country didn't implode as you knew it would.
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On August 04 2017 20:14 bardtown wrote:
Conflating two different things. They said the retirement age might need to be increased if migrant numbers are severely reduced. This is purely hypothetical and nothing to do with the rise that actually happened because we have an ageing population. I think you're probably aware that you're misrepresenting reality right now. But maybe you're just having paranoid visions because the country didn't implode as you knew it would.
Misrepresenting reality, or twisting studies to say patently absurd things because it sounds like owning with #science ...
... just another sad consequence of Brexit for the pro-EU left
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On August 07 2017 12:00 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On August 04 2017 20:14 bardtown wrote:
Conflating two different things. They said the retirement age might need to be increased if migrant numbers are severely reduced. This is purely hypothetical and nothing to do with the rise that actually happened because we have an ageing population. I think you're probably aware that you're misrepresenting reality right now. But maybe you're just having paranoid visions because the country didn't implode as you knew it would. Misrepresenting reality, or twisting studies to say patently absurd things because it sounds like owning with #science ... ... just another sad consequence of Brexit for the pro-EU left
I mean it's pretty obvious that the estimated £31bn hole in the budget Brexit is estimated to leave will: effect the state pension, effect the services the young get from the government( because they don't bloody vote), and ensure the continuation from austerity up until the point where there will be people who were born into a country implementing austerity and will have grown up well into adulthood with no relief from it. The anti-EU right daring to accuse any side of misrepresenting reality based off the campaign they ran to win is ludicrous (£350m for the NHS, the fact a report on EU migration was only commissioned last week etc). Ignoring the fairly horrendous looking economic and social repercussions, especially for younger generations, Brexit will probably be an absolute political fucking nightmare to get through Parliament under anything but a majority Labour government, and I can't foresee that happening for a while. That's ignoring that Ireland is more or less fucked by this, an issue that neither side mentioned in the referendum.
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Even if you think we should leave the EU, and that whatever sacrifices you thought we would make at the time of voting for that were worth it, that doesn't ignore the fact that the clowns in power at the moment do not seem capable of negotiating their exit from a paper bag.
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On August 07 2017 19:31 kollin wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2017 12:00 Danglars wrote:On August 04 2017 20:14 bardtown wrote:
Conflating two different things. They said the retirement age might need to be increased if migrant numbers are severely reduced. This is purely hypothetical and nothing to do with the rise that actually happened because we have an ageing population. I think you're probably aware that you're misrepresenting reality right now. But maybe you're just having paranoid visions because the country didn't implode as you knew it would. Misrepresenting reality, or twisting studies to say patently absurd things because it sounds like owning with #science ... ... just another sad consequence of Brexit for the pro-EU left I mean it's pretty obvious that the estimated £31bn hole in the budget Brexit is estimated to leave will: effect the state pension, effect the services the young get from the government( because they don't bloody vote), and ensure the continuation from austerity up until the point where there will be people who were born into a country implementing austerity and will have grown up well into adulthood with no relief from it. The anti-EU right daring to accuse any side of misrepresenting reality based off the campaign they ran to win is ludicrous (£350m for the NHS, the fact a report on EU migration was only commissioned last week etc). Ignoring the fairly horrendous looking economic and social repercussions, especially for younger generations, Brexit will probably be an absolute political fucking nightmare to get through Parliament under anything but a majority Labour government, and I can't foresee that happening for a while. That's ignoring that Ireland is more or less fucked by this, an issue that neither side mentioned in the referendum.
There will be bitching and moaning and a lot of theatrics but Brexit will pass through Parliament fine because the process doesn't stop just because Parliament voted against it.
Voting down the deal will also make sense if its worse then the hardest Brexit possible which is highly unlikely.
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On August 07 2017 19:41 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2017 19:31 kollin wrote:On August 07 2017 12:00 Danglars wrote:On August 04 2017 20:14 bardtown wrote:
Conflating two different things. They said the retirement age might need to be increased if migrant numbers are severely reduced. This is purely hypothetical and nothing to do with the rise that actually happened because we have an ageing population. I think you're probably aware that you're misrepresenting reality right now. But maybe you're just having paranoid visions because the country didn't implode as you knew it would. Misrepresenting reality, or twisting studies to say patently absurd things because it sounds like owning with #science ... ... just another sad consequence of Brexit for the pro-EU left I mean it's pretty obvious that the estimated £31bn hole in the budget Brexit is estimated to leave will: effect the state pension, effect the services the young get from the government( because they don't bloody vote), and ensure the continuation from austerity up until the point where there will be people who were born into a country implementing austerity and will have grown up well into adulthood with no relief from it. The anti-EU right daring to accuse any side of misrepresenting reality based off the campaign they ran to win is ludicrous (£350m for the NHS, the fact a report on EU migration was only commissioned last week etc). Ignoring the fairly horrendous looking economic and social repercussions, especially for younger generations, Brexit will probably be an absolute political fucking nightmare to get through Parliament under anything but a majority Labour government, and I can't foresee that happening for a while. That's ignoring that Ireland is more or less fucked by this, an issue that neither side mentioned in the referendum. There will be bitching and moaning and a lot of theatrics but Brexit will pass through Parliament fine because the process doesn't stop just because Parliament voted against it. Voting down the deal will also make sense if its worse then the hardest Brexit possible which is highly unlikely.
Given various EU people have signalled the process of leaving can be reversed, and it is Parliament that would reverse it, I'm not so sure about that. I think it's highly unlikely a deal which the DUP and both wings of the Conservatives accept, and if they don't get that I imagine there'll be an election and then probably more impasse.
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On August 07 2017 19:44 kollin wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2017 19:41 Gorsameth wrote:On August 07 2017 19:31 kollin wrote:On August 07 2017 12:00 Danglars wrote:On August 04 2017 20:14 bardtown wrote:
Conflating two different things. They said the retirement age might need to be increased if migrant numbers are severely reduced. This is purely hypothetical and nothing to do with the rise that actually happened because we have an ageing population. I think you're probably aware that you're misrepresenting reality right now. But maybe you're just having paranoid visions because the country didn't implode as you knew it would. Misrepresenting reality, or twisting studies to say patently absurd things because it sounds like owning with #science ... ... just another sad consequence of Brexit for the pro-EU left I mean it's pretty obvious that the estimated £31bn hole in the budget Brexit is estimated to leave will: effect the state pension, effect the services the young get from the government( because they don't bloody vote), and ensure the continuation from austerity up until the point where there will be people who were born into a country implementing austerity and will have grown up well into adulthood with no relief from it. The anti-EU right daring to accuse any side of misrepresenting reality based off the campaign they ran to win is ludicrous (£350m for the NHS, the fact a report on EU migration was only commissioned last week etc). Ignoring the fairly horrendous looking economic and social repercussions, especially for younger generations, Brexit will probably be an absolute political fucking nightmare to get through Parliament under anything but a majority Labour government, and I can't foresee that happening for a while. That's ignoring that Ireland is more or less fucked by this, an issue that neither side mentioned in the referendum. There will be bitching and moaning and a lot of theatrics but Brexit will pass through Parliament fine because the process doesn't stop just because Parliament voted against it. Voting down the deal will also make sense if its worse then the hardest Brexit possible which is highly unlikely. Given various EU people have signalled the process of leaving can be reversed, and it is Parliament that would reverse it, I'm not so sure about that. I think it's highly unlikely a deal which the DUP and both wings of the Conservatives accept, and if they don't get that I imagine there'll be an election and then probably more impasse.
Thinking ahead to future Murdock headlines, I can imagine that whatever deal is struck it will just be perceived as "in the EU by the back door" or "EU-lite".
EDIT: the tabloids will never celebrate a victory, they're the real moaners. It will always be a loss.
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On August 07 2017 19:44 kollin wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2017 19:41 Gorsameth wrote:On August 07 2017 19:31 kollin wrote:On August 07 2017 12:00 Danglars wrote:On August 04 2017 20:14 bardtown wrote:
Conflating two different things. They said the retirement age might need to be increased if migrant numbers are severely reduced. This is purely hypothetical and nothing to do with the rise that actually happened because we have an ageing population. I think you're probably aware that you're misrepresenting reality right now. But maybe you're just having paranoid visions because the country didn't implode as you knew it would. Misrepresenting reality, or twisting studies to say patently absurd things because it sounds like owning with #science ... ... just another sad consequence of Brexit for the pro-EU left I mean it's pretty obvious that the estimated £31bn hole in the budget Brexit is estimated to leave will: effect the state pension, effect the services the young get from the government( because they don't bloody vote), and ensure the continuation from austerity up until the point where there will be people who were born into a country implementing austerity and will have grown up well into adulthood with no relief from it. The anti-EU right daring to accuse any side of misrepresenting reality based off the campaign they ran to win is ludicrous (£350m for the NHS, the fact a report on EU migration was only commissioned last week etc). Ignoring the fairly horrendous looking economic and social repercussions, especially for younger generations, Brexit will probably be an absolute political fucking nightmare to get through Parliament under anything but a majority Labour government, and I can't foresee that happening for a while. That's ignoring that Ireland is more or less fucked by this, an issue that neither side mentioned in the referendum. There will be bitching and moaning and a lot of theatrics but Brexit will pass through Parliament fine because the process doesn't stop just because Parliament voted against it. Voting down the deal will also make sense if its worse then the hardest Brexit possible which is highly unlikely. Given various EU people have signalled the process of leaving can be reversed, and it is Parliament that would reverse it, I'm not so sure about that. I think it's highly unlikely a deal which the DUP and both wings of the Conservatives accept, and if they don't get that I imagine there'll be an election and then probably more impasse.
There is no impasse to be had, after 2 years your out unless a unanimous vote by all members grants an extension.
They might allow you to cancel article 50 if you want to do so before the 2 years are up but the rules are pretty clear what happens if you don't.
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Which is why proper preparations for a no-deal scenario are essential, otherwise the EU just stall the negotiations until that date and force concessions. This is so obvious, but we can't even get consensus on this fundamental point because half of the UK parliament is trying to undermine the government at the expense of the country.
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On August 07 2017 20:18 bardtown wrote:
Which is why proper preparations for a no-deal scenario are essential, otherwise the EU just stall the negotiations until that date and force concessions. This is so obvious, but we can't even get consensus on this fundamental point because half of the UK parliament is trying to undermine the government at the expense of the country.
Do you think if people realised the consequences of Brexit before they voted e.g negotiating nightmare, no £350m for the NHS and so on, Leave still would have won? I'm not attacking your own personal position on Brexit and I'm not assuming all Leave voters were simply too blind to predict this - I just genuinely get the feeling people did not know what they were voting for. If anything, widespread education on the nuances of the EU and our relationship came AFTER the referendum.
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Who knows? Would people still have voted for Remain if they knew the recession and emergency budget nonsense was made up? When you see British media reporting some of the insane things said by Juncker and Verhofstadt as fact while dismissing everything said by even the most reasonable people in the UK govt. I think it becomes quite clear that this has devolved into a partisan issue where neither side has any real interest in the arguments of the other. From my perspective, and I suspect from the perspective of many Leavers, the current mess just reinforces the desire to get out. From the perspective of Remainers it reinforces the idea that leaving is risky.
The thing is that we had a vote, and so the direction of the country has been decided. It wasn't what everybody wanted, but it was what the majority wanted, so it's going to happen. Even if you think Brexit will have a negative impact, the way to minimise that impact is to get behind the British side of the negotiation to push for the best outcome. Trying to undermine the negotiation in the hope that some technicality will result in us remaining is only going to put the country in greater risk.
But I think the whole idea of risk is completely overblown, anyway. My only concerns are technicalities like customs and flights and so on, and I think both sides are at least mature enough to agree to arrangements for these things no matter how uncompromising they want to appear.
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Who knows
Pretty much everybody by now. Factually. Feel free to argue that polls are worthless, as you certainly will do anyway, though.
One thing you got right. It wasn't what everyone wanted, but it's what England wanted. I disagree with "getting behind the British side of negotiations" especially considering how incompetent the british government is. To argue it's the "big bad EU" that somehow forced you to not have a single clue how and what to discuss is "weird" at best.
Sidenote, out of interest. How do you prepare for a "no-deal" scenario? Genuinely. How would britain prepare for WTO rules.
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What polls are those? As far as I'm aware polls have shown no change in attitudes since the referendum. The problem is that you only read news sources from one side of the debate so you only hear the anomalous results when it seems that Remain has an edge. Look at the following link, and always bear in mind that prior to the referendum the polls were completely split if not giving Remain an edge, so the fact that it has been so consistent since the vote implies that Leave would still win.
http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/
Also, it was what the UK wanted. If people object to having foreign policy decided at a UK level then they have the option of leaving the UK. But, unlike your wild predictions following the vote, the SNP lost support because they pushed for another referendum on independence and subsequently had to drop the idea. That is largely because England pays subsidies to all the other countries - but we might also dare to hope that some affiliation with the British identity is returning.
I don't know what you want from me on your last point. It involves complex industry specific policies and I'm really not the person to ask.
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On August 07 2017 20:54 bardtown wrote:
Who knows? Would people still have voted for Remain if they knew the recession and emergency budget nonsense was made up? When you see British media reporting some of the insane things said by Juncker and Verhofstadt as fact while dismissing everything said by even the most reasonable people in the UK govt. I think it becomes quite clear that this has devolved into a partisan issue where neither side has any real interest in the arguments of the other. From my perspective, and I suspect from the perspective of many Leavers, the current mess just reinforces the desire to get out. From the perspective of Remainers it reinforces the idea that leaving is risky.
The thing is that we had a vote, and so the direction of the country has been decided. It wasn't what everybody wanted, but it was what the majority wanted, so it's going to happen. Even if you think Brexit will have a negative impact, the way to minimise that impact is to get behind the British side of the negotiation to push for the best outcome. Trying to undermine the negotiation in the hope that some technicality will result in us remaining is only going to put the country in greater risk.
But I think the whole idea of risk is completely overblown, anyway. My only concerns are technicalities like customs and flights and so on, and I think both sides are at least mature enough to agree to arrangements for these things no matter how uncompromising they want to appear.
Well put. It's one of the things Remain surrendered in their rush to undo the vote with demagoguery: the ability to win over opposed parties with arguments. They never really Paid attention to or valued the arguments for why the UK had to leave. Now problems show why it's a good thing the process is triggered or why the enterprise jeopardized everything just depends on partisanship.
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Whatever we should have voted for in the Brexit vote, it was nowhere near as catastrophic as letting the current bunch of jokers take charge of the process.
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On August 08 2017 00:06 Jockmcplop wrote:
Whatever we should have voted for in the Brexit vote, it was nowhere near as catastrophic as letting the current bunch of jokers take charge of the process.
That's what you risk happening when you vote in a government that never wanted Brexit in the first place.
On August 07 2017 23:59 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On August 07 2017 20:54 bardtown wrote:
Who knows? Would people still have voted for Remain if they knew the recession and emergency budget nonsense was made up? When you see British media reporting some of the insane things said by Juncker and Verhofstadt as fact while dismissing everything said by even the most reasonable people in the UK govt. I think it becomes quite clear that this has devolved into a partisan issue where neither side has any real interest in the arguments of the other. From my perspective, and I suspect from the perspective of many Leavers, the current mess just reinforces the desire to get out. From the perspective of Remainers it reinforces the idea that leaving is risky.
The thing is that we had a vote, and so the direction of the country has been decided. It wasn't what everybody wanted, but it was what the majority wanted, so it's going to happen. Even if you think Brexit will have a negative impact, the way to minimise that impact is to get behind the British side of the negotiation to push for the best outcome. Trying to undermine the negotiation in the hope that some technicality will result in us remaining is only going to put the country in greater risk.
But I think the whole idea of risk is completely overblown, anyway. My only concerns are technicalities like customs and flights and so on, and I think both sides are at least mature enough to agree to arrangements for these things no matter how uncompromising they want to appear. Well put. It's one of the things Remain surrendered in their rush to undo the vote with demagoguery: the ability to win over opposed parties with arguments. They never really Paid attention to or valued the arguments for why the UK had to leave. Now problems show why it's a good thing the process is triggered or why the enterprise jeopardized everything just depends on partisanship.
Could it possible be because most of the Leave campaign was based on lies?
Its the same problem as the US faces, how do you have a good argument when one side is dominated by lies?
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On August 08 2017 00:18 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On August 08 2017 00:06 Jockmcplop wrote:
Whatever we should have voted for in the Brexit vote, it was nowhere near as catastrophic as letting the current bunch of jokers take charge of the process. That's what you risk happening when you vote in a government that never wanted Brexit in the first place. Show nested quote +On August 07 2017 23:59 Danglars wrote:On August 07 2017 20:54 bardtown wrote:
Who knows? Would people still have voted for Remain if they knew the recession and emergency budget nonsense was made up? When you see British media reporting some of the insane things said by Juncker and Verhofstadt as fact while dismissing everything said by even the most reasonable people in the UK govt. I think it becomes quite clear that this has devolved into a partisan issue where neither side has any real interest in the arguments of the other. From my perspective, and I suspect from the perspective of many Leavers, the current mess just reinforces the desire to get out. From the perspective of Remainers it reinforces the idea that leaving is risky.
The thing is that we had a vote, and so the direction of the country has been decided. It wasn't what everybody wanted, but it was what the majority wanted, so it's going to happen. Even if you think Brexit will have a negative impact, the way to minimise that impact is to get behind the British side of the negotiation to push for the best outcome. Trying to undermine the negotiation in the hope that some technicality will result in us remaining is only going to put the country in greater risk.
But I think the whole idea of risk is completely overblown, anyway. My only concerns are technicalities like customs and flights and so on, and I think both sides are at least mature enough to agree to arrangements for these things no matter how uncompromising they want to appear. Well put. It's one of the things Remain surrendered in their rush to undo the vote with demagoguery: the ability to win over opposed parties with arguments. They never really Paid attention to or valued the arguments for why the UK had to leave. Now problems show why it's a good thing the process is triggered or why the enterprise jeopardized everything just depends on partisanship. Could it possible be because most of the Leave campaign was based on lies? Its the same problem as the US faces, how do you have a good argument when one side is dominated by lies?
The irony of this made me laugh. Thank you for providing an example of exactly what he was describing.
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The referendum was one of the few cases where it wasn't put up to a shitty compromise between one clown and another; it was a straight yes-or-no decision that gave the result the EU didn't want and the smaller half of the country was aggressively against.
Well the people have evidently spoken, and all I can see is that the rest of the Remainers continue to make any and every attempt to subvert the process. Use the judiciary, force people to vote until the right result comes out, hope politicians go back on their promises in the EU's favor, probably will even try to use the ECHR to declare the referendum illegal someday. At this point it's just an aggressive form of sour grapes about an issue of understandable importance, but you just have to admit you lost here and move onto other ventures.
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On August 08 2017 01:19 LegalLord wrote:
The referendum was one of the few cases where it wasn't put up to a shitty compromise between one clown and another; it was a straight yes-or-no decision that gave the result the EU didn't want and the smaller half of the country was aggressively against.
Well the people have evidently spoken, and all I can see is that the rest of the Remainers continue to make any and every attempt to subvert the process. Use the judiciary, force people to vote until the right result comes out, hope politicians go back on their promises in the EU's favor, probably will even try to use the ECHR to declare the referendum illegal someday. At this point it's just an aggressive form of sour grapes about an issue of understandable importance, but you just have to admit you lost here and move onto other ventures.
I think there's room for people to take both approaches :D
I was a remainer but at this point there's absolutely no gain to be made by trying to stop brexit. There should be much more fuss being made over the competence of those doing the negotiating, though. Where's the massive team of top lawyers? The government probably can't afford their extortionate London prices. Just let ol' David Davis do it, then. There's a guy who seems switched on.
(ps that last bit was sarcasm he's a fucking muppet)
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