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On November 06 2012 11:38 oneofthem wrote: maybe you are under the illusion that the gop cares about its stated policies, such as deficit reduction. lol I just said base pandering is not official policy. Restrain the urge to respond to every post I make with some snide remark for long enough to actually understand my post, if you want to be effective.
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On November 06 2012 11:36 jdseemoreglass wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 11:33 Chocolate wrote: So what will be the effects on the GOP should Obama get reelected? Do you all think it will radicalize, or maybe become more moderate to engage groups like hispanics? Despite what left wingers have been suggesting, the GOP has been moving slowly left for a long time, and that will only continue. The problem is that people confuse base pandering with official GOP policy.
Slowly moving left? Have you seen the Tea Party? that does not look left at all to me. I remember seeing protests on the news when Obama lowered taxes for the middle class... To protest for or against, I dont understand their position at all.
GOP looks really far right, soon united states of america will be alliance of states of north america, haha just kidding but seriously, GOP moving left please explain this statement with facts.
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On November 06 2012 11:33 Chocolate wrote: So what will be the effects on the GOP should Obama get reelected? Do you all think it will radicalize, or maybe become more moderate to engage groups like hispanics? my prediction:
the GOP will moderate itself, and there will be a split between the three elements of the Republican party:
Libertarians will go to the Libertarian party Moderate Republicans will stay with the GOP Conservatives will mostly leave, either to the Libertarian party or to another (Consitution?) party.
in the long run, the GOP will be dead.
of course, this presupposes an Obama win.
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On November 06 2012 11:44 sc2superfan101 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 11:33 Chocolate wrote: So what will be the effects on the GOP should Obama get reelected? Do you all think it will radicalize, or maybe become more moderate to engage groups like hispanics? my prediction: the GOP will moderate itself, and there will be a split between the three elements of the Republican party: Libertarians will go to the Libertarian party Moderate Republicans will stay with the GOP Conservatives will mostly leave, either to the Libertarian party or to another (Consitution?) party. in the long run, the GOP will be dead. of course, this presupposes an Obama win.
Admittedly its the Daily Beast which is pretty partisanbut I think its a good rundown that you'd agree with.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/11/05/why-mitt-romney-loss-would-yield-deeper-recriminations-in-gop.html
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On November 06 2012 11:43 KlinKz wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 11:36 jdseemoreglass wrote:On November 06 2012 11:33 Chocolate wrote: So what will be the effects on the GOP should Obama get reelected? Do you all think it will radicalize, or maybe become more moderate to engage groups like hispanics? Despite what left wingers have been suggesting, the GOP has been moving slowly left for a long time, and that will only continue. The problem is that people confuse base pandering with official GOP policy. Slowly moving left? Have you seen the Tea Party? that does not look left at all to me. I remember seeing protests on the news when Obama lowered taxes for the middle class... To protest for or against, I dont understand their position at all. GOP looks really far right, soon united states of america will be alliance of states of north america, haha just kidding but seriously, GOP moving left please explain this statement with facts. The tea party is not the Republican party. Tea party candidates kicked out both democrat and republican incumbents.
The tea party was originally purely a fiscal conservative movement. They eventually got hijacked by social conservatives and the GOP.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
the problem wtih the idea that gop will move left is that the tea party component is not a rational strategic actor under 2 party assumptions.
they'll just feel frustration and treat compromise as defeat itself.
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On November 06 2012 11:36 Islandsnake wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 11:04 p4NDemik wrote:On November 06 2012 10:48 heliusx wrote: You should have done an absentee but if your state is important you should go. Even if not theres still amendments to vote on. Good excuse to visit your family. ^^ This a good point. Gay marriage is on the ballot in 4 (?) states I think. Arkansas and Massachusetts have ballot initiatives concerning medical marijuana. Colorado has an initiative concerning the effective legalization of marijuana. There's too many to discuss them all, but there are some major social issues on the ballot in some states this year. http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/2012_ballot_measures Oh wow I wish my state had issues on the ballot as well, looks like the east coast tends not to have that kinda stuff o.o
Massachusetts is east coast no?
I think NJ might have something weed-related as well, I'll see tomorrow.
It's been a great run guys. GL HF and vote wisely
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On November 06 2012 11:47 oneofthem wrote: the problem wtih the idea that gop will move left is that the tea party component is not a rational strategic actor under 2 party assumptions.
they'll just feel frustration and treat compromise as defeat itself. Part of the reason the tea party arose is because both the Republican and Democrat parties were committed to expansive government.
The Republican party has been moving left, and the tea party was a limited government ideology revolt. You have to distinguish between people moving right, and people protesting the country moving left. Those are not the same thing.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
your analysis of the tea party as anti government doesn't fully capture the impact of the economic downturn. in times of crisis certain easy ideologies (well greased grooves of external/internal enemies, founding mythos, etc) gain more strength as a way to empower popular movements of political recreation. these ideas need not be true to the present situation, they merely provide a rationalization for anger.
it's not that these people became angry after they saw some deficit numbers. they became angry first, then found reasons for getting angry.
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Judging by the number of smiling candidate pictures on the front page of the New York Times I predict a Romney win.
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On November 06 2012 11:55 oneofthem wrote: your analysis of the tea party as anti government doesn't fully capture the impact of the economic downturn. in times of crisis certain easy ideologies (well greased grooves, founding mythos, etc) gain more strength as a way to empower popular movements of political recreation. these ideas need not be true to the present situation, they merely provide a rationalization for anger.
it's not that these people became angry after they saw some deficit numbers. they became angry first, then found reasons for getting angry. Wow, talk about some serious psychological projection! You know absolutely nothing about the tea party, except that you despise them. You are the one with the anger towards the tea party which you rationalize after the fact.
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I can't wait to vote tomorrow here in New Hampshire, I'm going to single handedly increase this years Hispanic vote by 50%. I kid, I love it here though.
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On November 06 2012 11:33 Chocolate wrote: So what will be the effects on the GOP should Obama get reelected? Do you all think it will radicalize, or maybe become more moderate to engage groups like hispanics?
Na
Fairly confident in saying partisan politics is reaching its zenith. I still think Repubs will hang onto the House for at least 2 more years and maybe even snatch the Senate briefly but to me at least its clear moderate politics is coming back to fashion.
If Repubs still practice obstructionism after the inevitable Obama win during the economic recovery I think they risk giving up House majorities sooner than two years though.
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On November 06 2012 11:50 jdseemoreglass wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2012 11:47 oneofthem wrote: the problem wtih the idea that gop will move left is that the tea party component is not a rational strategic actor under 2 party assumptions.
they'll just feel frustration and treat compromise as defeat itself. Part of the reason the tea party arose is because both the Republican and Democrat parties were committed to expansive government. The Republican party has been moving left, and the tea party was a limited government ideology revolt. You have to distinguish between people moving right, and people protesting the country moving left. Those are not the same thing.
Except, in reality, the Republican Party has never been more conservative. There's been tax cuts under every Republican presidency.
There's this completely empty rhetoric that somehow the Republican Party was "truly" conservative under Reagan, and now that it's not, it's a problem. But in reality, all the Republican Party has done is continue the trends set by Reagan, to degrees that surpass anything your party has done in the past century. Romney wants to cut taxes to a new low, at a time when we're struggling to balance the budget - and yet, we're already hearing about how he wasn't really conservative enough.
I mean, "the Democrat Party has been moving to the right". Has it? It seems like something a liberal like myself would say in order to project the idea that the Democrats, and the country as a whole, needs to be more liberal.
At least I could actually back up the statement, "the Democrat Party has been moving to the right," by pointing to the fiscal policies of Obama and Clinton, which are, in fact, more conservative then their immediate Democrat predecessors.
But, "the Republican Party has been moving left," means you have to compare George W. Bush's policies to his father's.
Was George W. Bush more liberal than George H.W. Bush?
I'd say George W. Bush was actually more conservative -- and their fiscal policies prove it. I'd say the statement, "the Republican Party has been moving left," runs contradictory to reality, and is actually a Republican talking-point to make their conservative ideas seem less unprecedented. Romney, a supposedly "moderate" Republican, is talking about creating the lowest income tax rates in modern history at a time when we have record high debt inflation. Maybe Romney isn't moderate, maybe the Republican Party isn't moving left, maybe they're as ideologically conservative as they're supposed "detractors" in the Tea Party, and it's all just a nice talking-point to make the Republican Party look more centrist than it actually is.
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Nate Silver and the fivethirtyeight blog has Obama with a staggering 91.4% chance of winning right now.
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On November 06 2012 11:15 sc2superfan101 wrote: you know, I've also noticed a pretty direct correlation between how partisan (and to what side) one is and how much one views the general populace. not only will the liberal generally accuse Fox News of inordinate bias, but they will also usually throw in a surprising amount of comments about the stupidity of the general populace. it makes me wonder if modern liberalism is rooted in a very fatalistic and negative view of humanity as a whole...
hmm... interesting. to what extent, if such a negative view exists, would that view be based on one's own perception of one's self? food for thought, perhaps.
This is an interesting point, and I do notice that liberals in this country tend to be broadly critical of the intelligence of their fellow citizens, while conservatives tend to be critical of the intelligence of liberals.
However, I've noticed the opposite narrow/broad split when it comes to being critical of morality -- conservatives believe the morality of the entire country is pretty bad, while liberals are critical of the morality of conservatives specifically.
I don't know how much of that is an artifact of the peculiar divisions in American politics... a populist vs libertarian (or "classical liberal") split would see the populist being broadly critical in both cases, and the liberal being narrowly critical in both cases.
Steven Pinker touched on this topic in a recent guest piece for NYT
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/why-are-states-so-red-and-blue/
Conservative thinkers like the economist Thomas Sowell and the Times columnist David Brooks have noted that the political right has a Tragic Vision of human nature, in which people are permanently limited in morality, knowledge and reason. Human beings are perennially tempted by aggression, which can be prevented only by the deterrence of a strong military, of citizens resolved to defend themselves and of the prospect of harsh criminal punishment. No central planner is wise or knowledgeable enough to manage an entire economy, which is better left to the invisible hand of the market, in which intelligence is distributed across a network of hundreds of millions of individuals implicitly transmitting information about scarcity and abundance through the prices they negotiate. Humanity is always in danger of backsliding into barbarism, so we should respect customs in sexuality, religion and public propriety, even if no one can articulate their rationale, because they are time-tested workarounds for our innate shortcomings. The left, in contrast, has a Utopian Vision, which emphasizes the malleability of human nature, puts customs under the microscope, articulates rational plans for a better society and seeks to implement them through public institutions.
Cognitive scientists have recently enriched this theory with details of how the right-left divide is implemented in people’s cognitive and moral intuitions. The linguist George Lakoff suggests that the political right conceives of society as a family ruled by a strict father, whereas the left thinks of it as a family guided by a nurturant parent. The metaphors may be corollaries of the tragic and utopian visions, since different parenting practices are called for depending on whether you think of children as noble savages or as nasty, brutish and short. The psychologist Jonathan Haidt notes that rightists and leftists invest their moral intuitions in different sets of concerns: conservatives place a premium on deference to authority, conformity to norms and the purity and sanctity of the body; liberals restrict theirs to fairness, the provision of care and the avoidance of harm. Once again, the difference may flow from the clashing conceptions of human nature. If individuals are inherently flawed, their behavior must be restrained by custom, authority and sacred values. If they are capable of wisdom and reason, they can determine for themselves what is fair, harmful or hurtful.
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United States13896 Posts
On November 06 2012 11:59 SkyCrawler wrote:Now here's coverage of the election in terms that we gamers can understand. Slate - Political Kombat '12 I needed this.
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If you want to define the entire left vs. right dichotomy with the issue of taxes then I guess your argument makes sense. Regardless of their tax policy, however, all of those presidents resided over expanded government expenditures. All recent presidents, whether democrat or republican, have presided over higher government expenditures. And while that alone is also not the defining characteristic of the left/right paradigm, it is at least more accurate than focusing solely on tax cuts.
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