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Hey guys! We'll be closing this thread shortly, but we will make an American politics megathread where we can continue the discussions in here. The new thread can be found here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=383301 | ||
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RCMDVA
United States708 Posts
http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/doc/sub/ And see if a bunch of ads saying "Available January/February 2013" show up. That might be the best exit polling site. If there are alot of them...that would favor Romney...and if there are not many...that would favor Obama. But in <20 hours the campaings will know who won. And in 30 or so we all will. | ||
Souma
2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
On November 06 2012 06:28 ticklishmusic wrote: I just want to thank all of the people who have posted in this thread. Some have fallen off in the twelve hundred pages of this thread, and others have been forcibly removed. However, its been a great ride. After venturing to the comments sections of many websites, I have truly come to appreciate the level of discourse here-- sure its not amazing, but its a lot higher than you'd find anywhere else on the internet. A special shout out to the mods (hi Kwark!) who enforce that level, as well as to the many TL'ers who contribute. We might not always agree and we get pretty heated, but that's alright. Even though we don't agree with xDaunt, we can more or less respectfully shit on his ideas and he'll do it right back. Thanks to him and a few others like BluePanther, kmillz and jd, this thread is not simply the world's biggest online liberal circlejerk. I also want to thank our international friends (especially the Canadians) like Nemesis, Souma and Defacer. of course, to all the dirty commies in this thread as well like farvacola, samzdat, and anyone who I have forgotten. Finally, I'd like to hold a moment of silence for Swazi Spring and his brethren who must follow the election in RL instead of TL. So yeah. Election Day is tomorrow. It's been a lot of fun tracking the debates (except the first one, that was painful), watching the primaries, the conventions and debating a bunch of issues. It all ends tomorrow. Kind words but I'm American lol.  | ||
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ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
well... thats awkward. im a baddie. :/ | ||
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On November 06 2012 05:45 Innovation wrote: I think we can all agree that nobody wants anyone to be disenfranchised. But I have to point out that your assumption above is actually not true this time around. While historically (and particularly in 2008) early voting has had a democrat majority so far in this election early voting has actually seen a reversal towards republican majority. This would make your assumption that it negatively effects democrats more than republicans and by extension low income populations, untrue. This also doesn't bode well for the Obama campaign as it appears that actual voter turnout is stronger this time around for republicans than democrats. At least much stronger than it was in 2008 which had a 7 point lead for democrats in voter turnout. Another observation based upon this change: The most recent CNN pole which over-samples democrats by 11 points has Romney and Obama tied at 49%. This is based upon an assumed voter turnout which for some reason CNN thinks will be even higher this year than in 2008 for Democrats. I have the feeling that this election won't be as close as all the poles are indicating based upon poor voter enthusiasm and turnout assumptions. Whether you like it or not it's not looking great for Obama right now. If early voter turnout is any kind of indicator of the future than the 11 benefit given to Obama disappears and we'll see a strong Romney victory that won't be as close as predicted by the media. The only signs that Republicans are out-early-voting Democrats were in Pennsylvania...and the Huffington-Post level sites that posted about it all conveniently dropped the issue after running articles about it once (likely because the ballots from the Democrat-leaning districts were not yet factored into the total). In OH, WI, CO, and IA (I think) Democrat early voters are all outnumbering Republican ones. The outnumbering is usually a substantial decline from Obama's early voting in 2008, true, but in every swing state I've heard about this cycle making early voting harder will always hurt Democrats more than Republicans. Edit: Oh, and in NV too. Here's a link: http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2012/1105/Early-voting-results-point-to-Obama-lead.-Does-that-matter Turns out I was wrong about CO, my old article is outdated. Though the CO gap is pretty narrow now. | ||
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Souma
2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
On November 06 2012 06:47 ticklishmusic wrote: well... thats awkward. im a baddie. :/ It's okay, as a potential future Canadian I'll take it as a compliment. :p | ||
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Defacer
Canada5052 Posts
On November 06 2012 06:28 ticklishmusic wrote: I just want to thank all of the people who have posted in this thread. Some have fallen off in the twelve hundred pages of this thread, and others have been forcibly removed. However, its been a great ride. After venturing to the comments sections of many websites, I have truly come to appreciate the level of discourse here-- sure its not amazing, but its a lot higher than you'd find anywhere else on the internet. A special shout out to the mods (hi Kwark!) who enforce that level, as well as to the many TL'ers who contribute. We might not always agree and we get pretty heated, but that's alright. Even though we don't agree with xDaunt, we can more or less respectfully shit on his ideas and he'll do it right back. Thanks to him and a few others like BluePanther, kmillz and jd, this thread is not simply the world's biggest online liberal circlejerk. I also want to thank our international friends (especially the Canadians) like Nemesis, Souma and Defacer. of course, to all the dirty commies in this thread as well like farvacola, samzdat, and anyone who I have forgotten. Finally, I'd like to hold a moment of silence for Swazi Spring and his brethren who must follow the election in RL instead of TL. So yeah. Election Day is tomorrow. It's been a lot of fun tracking the debates (except the first one, that was painful), watching the primaries, the conventions and debating a bunch of issues. It all ends tomorrow. I just want to say regardless of the outcome tomorrow, you're all welcome to move to Canada instead of slitting your wrists or hanging yourselves. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
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NeMeSiS3
Canada2972 Posts
On November 06 2012 07:02 oneofthem wrote: canada is so cold. i'd rather be killed by kangaroos Lol Canada isn't that cold. : D <3Canada, although harper is meh. | ||
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farvacola
United States18826 Posts
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Souma
2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
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Defacer
Canada5052 Posts
On November 06 2012 07:08 farvacola wrote: I'd like to echo Ticklish's thanking everyone for partaking this thread, and all I'll add is that I hope to see many of you in future political threads, no matter your political affiliation. I know there'll be at least one or two comin up after the election I don't know. I might have to retire from this thread and cut back on TL overall. It's been a lot of fun debating with you guys, but to be honest, I've been sinking too much time into this site. I'm at a point in my life that I have to focus on ... y'know -- paying attention to my wife and figuring out how to make more money | ||
tree.hugger
Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
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PhillyWild
United States59 Posts
On November 06 2012 07:11 Souma wrote: Stop it. We still have more than a full day left to throw fallacious insults at one another. Seriously ruining the mood. Agreed. What with all the "kumbaya" nonsense?  | ||
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Defacer
Canada5052 Posts
On November 06 2012 07:16 tree.hugger wrote: I've been considering making this thread go invisible the moment the results are called, but you guys are saving it at the last moment. Oh well. What we need is a thread dedicated to General US Domestic and Foreign Policy. We should call it the WTF America? thread. | ||
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farvacola
United States18826 Posts
On November 06 2012 07:15 Defacer wrote: I don't know. I might have to retire from this thread and cut back on TL overall. It's been a lot of fun debating with you guys, but to be honest, I've been sinking too much time into this site. I'm at a point in my life that I have to focus on ... y'know -- paying attention to my wife and figuring out how to make more money I'm sure you'll find the time to stop in every once in a while | ||
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zJayy962
1363 Posts
On November 06 2012 07:21 Defacer wrote: What we need is a thread dedicated to General US Domestic and Foreign Policy. We should call it the WTF America? thread. Sounds like Philly D. Not sure if anyone follows him but he'll be doing a live show tomorrow during the election that I'll be tuning into. And to be perfectly serious, I hope that 3rd party gets the 5% they need. It'd be a shame if they didn't get the support they need and I've always believed a two party system will always be a shitty one whether or not I agree with the libertarians or not I hope they get their 5%. | ||
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Maxyim
430 Posts
"Allegedly, an anonymous source within the Romney campaign has given the Daily Mail access to some of Mitt's internal polling. Assuming this is legit, it's very good news for the GOP candidate. According to the source, Romney is now up by one in Ohio, 3 in New Hampshire, and tied in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If these numbers are accurate, it's devastating news for team Obama. Given what we know about sampling, party affiliation, Republican enthusiasm, and declines in Democrat early voting, The President would, without question, need to be in a stronger position to have any realistic hope of carrying Election Day." http://www.caintv.com/Romneywinningininternalpolling-697 More info to support some statements made in the article above: ">Poll after poll shows Romney absolutely killing it among independents, and yet topline numbers show the race tied. Unless Democratic turnout absolutely overwhelms Republican turnout - and I mean by more than it did even in 2008 - there is no way this can be so. Either Romney is not really leading among independents or the race is not tied. He is ahead. >Partisan breakdown samples in the state polls continue to show pretty absurd partisan breakdowns. A new one from Marist today had a D+11 (!) sample. And yet the media report the polls as if this is not an issue at all. >The winner of the national popular vote almost always wins the electoral college. An incumbent who hasn't broken 50 percent in national polling on the day before the election almost never wins the popular vote. Obama is at 48 and 49 in the polls that came out today. >New polls in the past couple of days show both Michigan and Pennsylvania neck and neck, and both campaigns clearly recognize there is legitimacy to this as they're spending heavily in both. It seems implausible that these typically blue states could be tied while states that are usually more red, like Virginia, Ohio and Florida, would be leaning Obama as the MSM wants us to believe. I don't know that Romney will win either state, but the point is he doesn't need to in order to win the election. He needs to win Florida, Virginia and Ohio. Historical voting patterns suggest he should perform better in the latter group than in the former. >While the media keeps telling us Obama is leading in the early vote, that is no surprise. What he needed was to get out to a huge lead in the early vote, and in some crucial states, he has not done that." http://www.caintv.com/SomethinghastogivePollsvsdatat-695 | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
that site you reference looks pretty crackpot | ||
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armada[sb]
United States432 Posts
On November 06 2012 07:32 Maxyim wrote: + Show Spoiler + Some interesting new developments: "Allegedly, an anonymous source within the Romney campaign has given the Daily Mail access to some of Mitt's internal polling. Assuming this is legit, it's very good news for the GOP candidate. According to the source, Romney is now up by one in Ohio, 3 in New Hampshire, and tied in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If these numbers are accurate, it's devastating news for team Obama. Given what we know about sampling, party affiliation, Republican enthusiasm, and declines in Democrat early voting, The President would, without question, need to be in a stronger position to have any realistic hope of carrying Election Day." http://www.caintv.com/Romneywinningininternalpolling-697 More info to support some statements made in the article above: ">Poll after poll shows Romney absolutely killing it among independents, and yet topline numbers show the race tied. Unless Democratic turnout absolutely overwhelms Republican turnout - and I mean by more than it did even in 2008 - there is no way this can be so. Either Romney is not really leading among independents or the race is not tied. He is ahead. >Partisan breakdown samples in the state polls continue to show pretty absurd partisan breakdowns. A new one from Marist today had a D+11 (!) sample. And yet the media report the polls as if this is not an issue at all. >The winner of the national popular vote almost always wins the electoral college. An incumbent who hasn't broken 50 percent in national polling on the day before the election almost never wins the popular vote. Obama is at 48 and 49 in the polls that came out today. >New polls in the past couple of days show both Michigan and Pennsylvania neck and neck, and both campaigns clearly recognize there is legitimacy to this as they're spending heavily in both. It seems implausible that these typically blue states could be tied while states that are usually more red, like Virginia, Ohio and Florida, would be leaning Obama as the MSM wants us to believe. I don't know that Romney will win either state, but the point is he doesn't need to in order to win the election. He needs to win Florida, Virginia and Ohio. Historical voting patterns suggest he should perform better in the latter group than in the former. >While the media keeps telling us Obama is leading in the early vote, that is no surprise. What he needed was to get out to a huge lead in the early vote, and in some crucial states, he has not done that." http://www.caintv.com/SomethinghastogivePollsvsdatat-695 I thought that everyone knew that the Daily Mail is garbage! | ||
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Maxyim
430 Posts
On November 06 2012 07:34 oneofthem wrote: "internal" polls are still polls suffering from the same sort of challenges "outsider" polls face. there is no magical insider knowledge that leads to magical fair sampling. Sure, if you completely discount that modern-day "external" pollsters have their own political agenda. In this case; I would assume that Mitt's internal polling does not needlessly oversample democrats. On November 06 2012 07:38 armada[sb] wrote: I thought that everyone knew that the Daily Mail is garbage! On November 06 2012 07:34 oneofthem wrote: that site you reference looks pretty crackpot An ad-hominem attack on a source of info is a rather poor argument against said info, don't you think? If I told you that Fox News reported that the sky was blue today, would you look askance? | ||
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