EPTPresident Obama Re-Elected - Page 1183
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Hey guys! We'll be closing this thread shortly, but we will make an American politics megathread where we can continue the discussions in here. The new thread can be found here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=383301 | ||
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farvacola
United States18839 Posts
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DoubleReed
United States4130 Posts
On November 05 2012 02:41 BluePanther wrote: Obstructionism is getting worse, in my opinion. Right, so what's your issue with saying that Republicans have become obstructionists against Obama moreso than Democrats under Bush, and moreso than Republicans under Clinton? | ||
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StarStrider
United States689 Posts
On November 05 2012 02:36 Stratos_speAr wrote: There is no trending for Romney anymore. Obama has a slight but consistent lead in the vast majority of state polls. Prediction markets have him at an almost 70% chance to win. If Romney wins, it will definitely be an upset. Romney's popularity has had a steady growth over the last few weeks of debates that, according to the poll aggregates I've seen, has not quite leveled off or reversed yet. As far as Obama's lead in various states, it just depends on the poll, which is why I say it is neck and neck still, a tossup. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/ EDIT: If you call the states for Obama that will likely be Obama states, Obama wins by a pretty large margin. But those states are still considered 'toss-up' states if you look at it objectively, which gives Obama only a slight lead in EC at the moment: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_race_changes.html While I would probably predict an Obama win myself if I had to make a prediction, I don't think it's as locked in as people are saying it is. It wouldn't be as big an upset as that. | ||
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DoubleReed
United States4130 Posts
On November 05 2012 02:43 farvacola wrote: Now now everyone, BluePanther is merely being a good Republican campaigner; "never give the opposition the answer they want to hear" becomes even more important a strategy this close to an election. This is an online forum, not a goddamn press conference. I want a straight answer dammit. | ||
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NeMeSiS3
Canada2972 Posts
On November 05 2012 02:41 BluePanther wrote: Obstructionism is getting worse, in my opinion. It would be hard to disagree with that statement, obstructionism (on both sides) is getting worse although it would be hard to say that the Democrats are doing it more since they're more liberal by nature. A giant political reconstruction needs to happen in the States imo, it's quite obvious the two party system is a farce. | ||
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farvacola
United States18839 Posts
On November 05 2012 02:45 DoubleReed wrote: This is an online forum, not a goddamn press conference. I want a straight answer dammit. And that is why you are a good liberal  Anyways, I really like Nate Silver's take on why Romney is spending some of his last campaign time in Pennsylvania, and whether or not it will end up paying off.That brings us to Pennsylvania — where the forecast model puts Mr. Obama’s chances at better than 95 percent. One poll of Pennsylvania on Saturday, from Susquehanna Polling and Research, showed a different result, with the two candidates tied at 47 percent. But in context, this is not such a great poll for Mr. Romney. The polling firm has had a very strong Republican lean this cycle — about five percentage points relative to the consensus, a much larger lean than firms like Rasmussen Reports and Public Policy Polling that are often criticized for having partisan results. Susquehanna is the only pollster to have shown Mr. Romney ahead in Pennsylvania at any point in the race, as they did on one occasion in February and another in October (Mr. Romney led by four points in their previous poll of the state). Perhaps they will be proven right, but it is usually a bad bet to bank on the one poll rather than the many. Still, Mr. Romney’s campaign is making a late play for Pennsylvania with advertising dollars and a visit there on Sunday. That is probably a reasonable strategy, even though Mr. Romney’s chances of pulling out a victory in Pennsylvania are slim. What makes it reasonable is that Mr. Romney’s alternative paths to an Electoral College victory are not looking all that much stronger. 538 | ||
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Praetorial
United States4241 Posts
If the Romney campaign is spending that much in Pennsylvania, then all those emails from Jim Messina about being overspent may not matter all that much. | ||
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Feartheguru
Canada1334 Posts
On November 05 2012 02:44 StarStrider wrote: Romney's popularity has had a steady growth over the last few weeks of debates that, according to the poll aggregates I've seen, has not quite leveled off or reversed yet. As far as Obama's lead in various states, it just depends on the poll, which is why I say it is neck and neck still, a tossup. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/ EDIT: If you call the states for Obama that will likely be Obama states, Obama wins by a pretty large margin. But those states are still considered 'toss-up' states if you look at it objectively, which gives Obama only a slight lead in EC at the moment: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_race_changes.html While I would probably predict an Obama win myself if I had to make a prediction, I don't think it's as locked in as people are saying it is. It wouldn't be as big an upset as that. Romney's momentum has long since reversed, not sure what poll aggregates you're talking about. Obama ahead in 16/22 polls from yesterday 18/21 from Friday, in swing states (most of the difference is tie, only a few Romney ahead). The link you had doesn't show anything, states listed as tossup aren't 50/50. | ||
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Feartheguru
Canada1334 Posts
On November 05 2012 03:07 Praetorial wrote: I agree, reading Nate Silver's blog for today makes me feel good. If the Romney campaign is spending that much in Pennsylvania, then all those emails from Jim Messina about being overspent may not matter all that much. The Republicans' argument that they're "expanding the map" makes no sense and no one in a confident position would do such a thing, that's the main reason I have full confidence that the polls are not skewed and Romney knows he's boned. | ||
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StarStrider
United States689 Posts
On November 05 2012 03:10 Feartheguru wrote: Romney's momentum has long since reversed, not sure what poll aggregates you're talking about. Obama ahead in 16/22 polls from yesterday 18/21 from Friday, in swing states (most of the difference is tie, only a few Romney ahead). The link you had doesn't show anything, states listed as tossup aren't 50/50. Could I have a link to the polls you mentioned? | ||
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Saryph
United States1955 Posts
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ | ||
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Risen
United States7927 Posts
On November 05 2012 02:16 BluePanther wrote: No, read what I responded to. He was talking about obstructionism as a Republican strategy and insinuating that Democrats were above that type of behavior. My only reason for jumping in was to correct that misrepresentation -- both parties engage in it. Also, I didn't argue that one was "better" than the other, I said that it was dumb to use filibuster numbers as "proof" of why Democrats were less obstructionist than Republicans. There was no insinuation in my post. I presented my view, a view shared by others, and asked you what was wrong with my view. You proceeded to not answer my question at all. I didn't really expect you to answer it, I guess. | ||
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ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
Commence the liberal circle-jerking! A lot of people already pointed out that Romney's shotgun approach to a bunch of states was rather strange and that it seemed more desperation play than actual strategy to increase his EC share. I like how Silver confirms this with math. | ||
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Risen
United States7927 Posts
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farvacola
United States18839 Posts
On November 05 2012 03:42 ticklishmusic wrote: Read Nate Silver Commence the liberal circle-jerking! A lot of people already pointed out that Romney's shotgun approach to a bunch of states was rather strange and that it seemed more desperation play than actual strategy to increase his EC share. I like how Silver confirms this with math. Just you wait. Election day will be full of Nate Silver quotes, Chris Matthews memes, and Young Jeezy shall be playing the background. | ||
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Zaqwert
United States411 Posts
He tries to be fair with the numbers, but always slants his analysis in a pro-D way. Reading various articles or blogs at this point to make yourself feel better is stupid. Just wait 2 more days and you can either celebrate or cry, depending on how the chips fall. | ||
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mynameisgreat11
599 Posts
On November 05 2012 04:08 Zaqwert wrote: Nate Silver is a former blogger for DailyKos and openly gay. Pretty funny how he's supposed to be some sort of impartial party. He tries to be fair with the numbers, but always slants his analysis in a pro-D way. Reading various articles or blogs at this point to make yourself feel better is stupid. Just wait 2 more days and you can either celebrate or cry, depending on how the chips fall. Reading is stupid. Zaqwert has spoken. | ||
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StarStrider
United States689 Posts
On November 05 2012 04:08 Zaqwert wrote: Nate Silver is a former blogger for DailyKos and openly gay. Pretty funny how he's supposed to be some sort of impartial party. He tries to be fair with the numbers, but always slants his analysis in a pro-D way. Reading various articles or blogs at this point to make yourself feel better is stupid. Just wait 2 more days and you can either celebrate or cry, depending on how the chips fall. You can say he's biased, but the numbers and polls he uses aren't selectively cherry picked to suit his bias.... his numbers seem pretty objective to me, and he doesn't infer a lot of personal bias, he seems to use historical precedence alot, which can't simply be ignored. What I've read from him seems to be pretty objective to me, and I lean conservative. | ||
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Omnipresent
United States871 Posts
On November 05 2012 03:12 Feartheguru wrote: The Republicans' argument that they're "expanding the map" makes no sense and no one in a confident position would do such a thing, that's the main reason I have full confidence that the polls are not skewed and Romney knows he's boned. Romney may be trying a watered-down version of Bush's California play from 2000. The goal is to make it look like the campaign knows something the pundits don't. He's portraying the image of a candidate who is confident enough in all the "close" states that he can spend some extra time to expand the margin in areas where he's a long shot to win. Keen observers certainly won't be fooled, and I really doubt anyone else will either. | ||
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heliusx
United States2306 Posts
On November 05 2012 04:08 Zaqwert wrote: Nate Silver is a former blogger for DailyKos and openly gay. Pretty funny how he's supposed to be some sort of impartial party. He tries to be fair with the numbers, but always slants his analysis in a pro-D way. Reading various articles or blogs at this point to make yourself feel better is stupid. Just wait 2 more days and you can either celebrate or cry, depending on how the chips fall. he's biased because he's gay? lol. | ||
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