President Obama Re-Elected - Page 1177

On November 04 2012 14:31 Maxyim wrote:
Hey, have you guys seen this:

http://unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012 president_02.cfm


More info about UnSkewed Polls:

"The mainstream media typically skews these polls by sampling registered voters (which means less enthused supporters of the Democrats are counted even though they are less likely to vote) instead of likely voters, and Democrats are over-sampled."

http://www.examiner.com/article/is-the-latest-washington-post-abc-poll-skewed-for-obama


Before all of you liberal types go on a Google frenzy to try to prove this wrong; it's already been tried. The official MSM response boils down to "haha, look here, a strawman that I will knock down without addressing the core point you are making." See for yourself:

http://www.therightsphere.com/2012/09/polls-are-not-rigged/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-karpf/unskewed-polls-meet-simpl_b_1913266.html
http://freakoutnation.com/2012/09/26/rachel-maddow-obliterates-the-new-republican-fantasy-electorate-of-skewed-polls/


So, who all is ready for a landslide? :-)

On November 04 2012 14:31 Maxyim wrote:
Hey, have you guys seen this:

http://unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012 president_02.cfm


More info about UnSkewed Polls:

"The mainstream media typically skews these polls by sampling registered voters (which means less enthused supporters of the Democrats are counted even though they are less likely to vote) instead of likely voters, and Democrats are over-sampled."

http://www.examiner.com/article/is-the-latest-washington-post-abc-poll-skewed-for-obama


Before all of you liberal types go on a Google frenzy to try to prove this wrong; it's already been tried. The official MSM response boils down to "haha, look here, a strawman that I will knock down without addressing the core point you are making." See for yourself:

http://www.therightsphere.com/2012/09/polls-are-not-rigged/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-karpf/unskewed-polls-meet-simpl_b_1913266.html
http://freakoutnation.com/2012/09/26/rachel-maddow-obliterates-the-new-republican-fantasy-electorate-of-skewed-polls/


So, who all is ready for a landslide? :-)

On November 04 2012 14:56 Maxyim wrote:
Hey, giggle and snicker all you want; no skin off my back. It all boils down to one undisputable fact - our current polling and aggregation techniques boil down to calling a sample set of people (that is intended to reproduce demographics of a particular electorate; this is the reason why different pollsters have different results), and asking them a simple question ("who do you support?"). Throughout this process; other pollsters are asking different questions (for our example, "how likely are you to vote?"). For whatever reason, these two data points, while completely relevant to each other, are never connected by the MSM (this includes Fox).

I'll make it even simpler for you to understand. Put 100 people in the room and ask them who they are voting for. You will probably get something like:

48 - Romney
48 - Obama
4 - Undecided / Other

Now, ask these same people how likely they are to vote, and average it out by party line. Current #s indicate that you will get the following:

51 - Romney
45 - Obama
4 - Undecided / Other

Note that these figures completely exclude early voting, which favors Romney as of the last update by Gallup.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx

On November 04 2012 15:00 TheTenthDoc wrote:


Unskewed polls is a joke because they "unskew" polls by assuming a completely arbitrary partisan makeup then weighting things from there. At least Rasmussen has a formal methodology for gauging the partisan makeup of those they poll to justify their weighting.

And you know, pollsters don't ask "how likely are you to vote," that's flat out wrong. There's likely voter models though.

Edit: Gallup's polls also still haven't taken into account the post-Hurricane effect and the poor play most of Romney's ads have had in the swing states/elsewhere.

On November 04 2012 15:11 EtherealDeath wrote:
Curious. Hadn't thought much of it when I did early voting on Friday, but actually my ballot had me voting for not my congressional district, but rather a neighboring one. Not that it is likely to matter since both districts are traditionally Democratic and I happened to vote for the Democratic candidate as well.

Good thing that districting fail would be a bit harder to have happen for the Presidential election...

On November 04 2012 15:11 EtherealDeath wrote:
Curious. Hadn't thought much of it when I did early voting on Friday, but actually my ballot had me voting for not my congressional district, but rather a neighboring one. Not that it is likely to matter since both districts are traditionally Democratic and I happened to vote for the Democratic candidate as well.

Good thing that districting fail would be a bit harder to have happen for the Presidential election...

On November 04 2012 15:15 Maxyim wrote:


That makes no sense at all; your district is based on your home address and your ballot should have included your local, state and Federal representatives based on that address. Are you sure that you are not really located in this "neighboring" district?

On November 04 2012 15:16 Souma wrote:


You sure it isn't because the lines were redrawn recently?

On November 04 2012 15:11 Maxyim wrote:


No, the only "assumption" is that everyone who says they are going to vote this way or that way will not make it to the polls. Considering right-wing intensity is higher than left-wing intensity, the skew is towards the right-wing. I explained all of this above already...

Those likely voter models get their data from...where, do you think? Each side plans their ground game around the "how likely you are to vote" factor; you can be assured that there are polling agencies engaged to ask these questions. I have not found this data to be publicly available by state; my guess is that it is because each party is protecting it. We do however know what it looks like on a national level from the Gallup article that I linked above.

Sandy is not going to negatively impact either candidate (each experienced positive and negative aspects and neither managed to "step in it," per se). As for ads; most people have made up their minds well beyond Sandy. This final stretch is all about encouraging people to actually make it to the polls.

On November 04 2012 15:18 EtherealDeath wrote:

I'm in district 4 of my state. My ballot was for district 13. District 13 is across the highway that is about 3/4 mile from my house.

Source - US Congress "Find your representative" site tells me my address is District 4. I also know who I happened to vote for, and he's the representation for District 13. I didn't notice what the little nagging thought at the back of my head was at the time, as I have read up on a few representatives from my state, so it didn't immediately click to me that this wasn't my representative, as the guy was familiar to me.

As of tonight, 10 minutes ago, US Congress site tells me my exact address (not zip code, exact address) is District 4, not 13. Sadly I already turned in the ballot back on Friday, so there's no retrieving it/fixing it.

On November 04 2012 15:23 Souma wrote:


That's odd. I'd take it up with your city, seriously. They could be screwing over a lot of voters.

On November 04 2012 15:26 EtherealDeath wrote:

Closed till Monday :D

Wonder what they can even do about it. On the positive side though, it's highly unlikely to matter in these particular two districts as the opposing party candidate really does not have much of a snowball's chance in hell, as both are long serving incumbents with good support.

Unless of course magically the opposition candidates win :D

On November 04 2012 15:27 Souma wrote:


For all we know they could be shifting all the Democratic votes to one district while retaining the Republican votes in another district. :p

On November 04 2012 15:28 EtherealDeath wrote:

Well, let's just say the margins are expected to be large enough that if the Republican candidate won in either district, it'd be extremely surprising. It would be like Obama winning Mississippi and Alabama.

On November 04 2012 15:29 Souma wrote:


Just curious. What state are you in?

On July 19, the North Carolina GOP released a revised version of its Congressional redistricting maps. Overall, the map is seen as significantly worse for the state's Congressional Democrats. Unlike the previous plan which weakened four Democratic districts but kept incumbents within their original districts, the new draft paired four Democrats in two districts. Specifically, the plan paired Reps. Larry Kissell (D) and Mike McIntyre (D) in the strongly-Republican 8th District. The plan also paired Rep. Brad Miller (D) and Rep. David Price (D) in Price's District 4. Miller, who still lives near his old district (13), did not plan to challenge Price.

Following the 2010 Census results, North Carolina did not gain or lose any congressional seats, maintaining its 13 representatives. Under the new map, current 13th District Representative Brad Miller (D) finds himself living in and representing part of the new 4th District. He may run against fellow Democrat and current 4th District representative David Price.