Rio de Janeiro on the edge of Civil War

I live in Rio, so let me give you a local middle/high class input on the issue.

1 - The slums (favelas) are densely populated areas where poor people live. Since the 80's, they are dominated by criminal factions who make a lot of cash selling drugs (mainly cocaine and pot). With time, the local factions got richer and stronger, with heavy armament like AR-15, FAL 7.62 and M-16 rifles.

The police never really bothered them because they were corrupt (some slums are even controlled by militias formed by local cops, who also sell drugs, pirate cable, sell gas in the slum, charge protection, etc.) , the political leadership was corrupt and fuck it only poor people live there so who cares. As long as the rich, tourist areas were safe, all was fine. There were good intentions, but few practical results.

And the drug dealers went along. They controlled the slums, but didn't use their fearsome firepower to commit petty crimes. They fought between themselves for control of the slums, but avoiding confrontation with the police.

2 - 2 years ago it started to change. The state government started to implement a new idea to fight crime. They would invade the slums, dislodge the drug dealers, and implant a "Pacifying Police Station" in the slum, to assure that the criminals would never return.

During the 1st phase, from dec/2008 to nowish, the police occupied ("pacified") 12 slums. All of those were relatively isolated slums in the middle of the rich areas. Slums were it was easy to surround and establish control. The big slums in the suburbs were left untouched.

Also, the plans for occupation of a slum were widely announced in the media before the fact, so the criminals would have time to flee the slum and the occupation would occur without a shootout.

This phase was a huge success, and today, most of the slums in the rich areas are free from rifle-wielding drug dealers. Those fled to the slums in the suburbs, with all the firepower they had. Very few apprehensions (of guns, drugs or criminals) were made during those police operations.

They also sent the faction leaders, the famous drug lords, to federal max security prisons in other states, disrupting the command chain of the factions (state prisons are also a cesspool of corruption. For instance: Inmates use cellphones to simulate kidnappings and extort money from helpless/naive people).

3 - Despite losing very few men, very few guns, almost no drug and practically no money in those occupations, the factions started to lose revenue, for those occupied slums were very lucrative, and the rich people who buys cocaine wouldn't go to the suburbs to buy their drugs. Middle class drug dealers, who operated in apartments and didn't bear any guns at all, occupied the drug market. Also, the justice started to freeze the assets of the faction leaders and their family.

Finally, the governor of the state of Rio just got reelected, partially because of his security policy.

4 - So we came to this week. Apparently, faction leaders in a federal max security prison in another state managed to send a message to their underlings to start a terror campaign. Since Sunday, 77 vehicles were torched in the streets. You can see some photos here.

To counter that, the police decided to invade one of the most important slum controlled by that faction. Vila Cruzeiro, the slum occupied today, was a bastion of the criminal factions. An investigative journalist was murdered there in 2002, causing an uproar; a police helicopter was shot down there in 2009. And the police intelligence reckoned that a great number of criminals with lots of guns fled from the pacified slums to there. So they decided to invade.

5 - The invasion had logistic support of the Navy, which was surprising since the federal armed forces usually stay the hell away from crime fighting in Rio (states constitutional rights, refusal to be placed in control of state forces, lack of training as a police force in urban area.) Those APCs were even manned by Navy Marines under the command of the police. After 4 hours of gunfighting, over 200 criminals fled through the hills on the rear end of the slum to another even larger slum also controlled by that faction. Watch that video, it's really impressive. The Vila Cruzeiro slum is now completely occupied by the police forces.

The larger slum is called "Complexo do Alemão" (German's Complex), which is actually 13 slums that are really close to each other. Apparently, the police has surrounded it too, but the sheer size of that place makes establishing a perimeter very hard. To accomplish that, the Brazilian Army is sending 800 men and 10 APC, specifically to help establishing the perimeter. No announcements were made, but everyone expects that the police will start invading that slum tomorrow.

6 - Meanwhile, the terror attacks continue. Buses are still being torched, mainly in the suburbs, and I believe there will be even more attacks during the night. The police has every man available patrolling the streets, including the police band, the policemen in administrative duty and even recalling the officers in vacation. The Federal Police will help in special tasks tomorrow, and the National Security Force is ready to support the street patrolling if asked.

The torching and the terror acts probably will keep happening, since the MD of the crooks is boarding buses in pairs with a handguns and backpacks containing gas, ordering everyone out and setting fire on the vehicle from the inside. It happens in a matter of seconds, and the flames can't be put down. They are also torching parked cars in the middle of the night. The police has arrested about a dozen of these guys, and usually manage to capture the ones acting in the rich areas, away from the slums, sadly only after the facts.

7 - The reaction of the citizens is mixed. I think there's overwhelming support for the police forces, but the terror is affecting the daily routine, specially the poor people who commute using buses. Upper/Middle class people in the rich areas haven't been affected, but the images on the media are frightening, and some might feel threatened despite the lack of unusual serious criminal activities in the rich areas. (i think only 2 cars were torched in the south zone, during the night, and they were parked (so no armed robbery) and the culprits were captured.

I think that many people want to see a complete massacre of the criminals. A catharsis of sort. They don't really see the criminals as human beings no more, specially the upper/middle classes. I reckon that if the police invade the Alemão Complex tomorrow, and lots of innocent people get killed as collateral damage, there wouldn't be a huge uproar. At maximum it would be seen as a necessary tragedy. Personally, I think that scenario would suck, and I hope it doesn't happen, but I confess that part of me will be very happy about the dead criminals.

About the reaction of the poor people who live on the area, I saw an image on the TV where the locals were offering water and snacks to the police forces. That usually never happens because in the slums, people who collaborate with the police is usually killed by he criminals. So, for them to be so openly helping the police forces, it seems that they truly believe that the occupation is for good and that the criminals will not return. But I guess that they still don't like the stray bullets.

That's it, for now. Stay tuned for tomorrow's chapter. Looks like its going to be a blast.