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On December 13 2010 19:51 MoltkeWarding wrote:North Korea will never be the party to start a war. What these totally unnecessary and frivolous naval exercises accomplish is the creation of a scenario which North Korea will misinterpret and misconstrue, permitting plenty of opportunities for accidental conflagrations. North Korea's actions are not insane. They follow a very simple oriental common sense, so simple that it's easy to miss. They will also take us further from a normalization of relations with the North Korean regime, which is the only policy likely to deflate military tensions in the long run, in my opinion. We must not pretend to be friends with the North Koreans, but we must stop giving North Korea the impression that we pose an existential threat to their country or regime.
See there's one problem with the "North Korea will never be the party to start a war", because they already fired live artillery at a S Korean town. They already crossed the "willing to start a war" line, it could have easily escalated into a fullscale conflict and it's only by luck that it didn't.
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here is the real problem in this situation.......... CHINA and we pray CHINA says , NORTH KOREA STOP BEING A CHILD. That is what we pray for because if not , this will be the start of ww3.
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On December 13 2010 20:18 SCC-Faust wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2010 20:09 ZERG_RUSSIAN wrote:Okay, that's the last straw. I'm fucking outta here. Goodbye Korea, it's been fun while it lasted  . You are joking, right?
No, I'm leaving Korea. I have other reasons as well, but the whole "we gonna nuke u k" is not exactly helping.
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On December 14 2010 02:59 ZERG_RUSSIAN wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2010 20:18 SCC-Faust wrote:On December 13 2010 20:09 ZERG_RUSSIAN wrote:Okay, that's the last straw. I'm fucking outta here. Goodbye Korea, it's been fun while it lasted . You are joking, right? No, I'm leaving Korea. I have other reasons as well, but the whole "we gonna nuke u k" is not exactly helping.
I suppose you left planet earth during the cold war as well...
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On December 14 2010 02:21 Duban wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2010 19:51 MoltkeWarding wrote:North Korea will never be the party to start a war. What these totally unnecessary and frivolous naval exercises accomplish is the creation of a scenario which North Korea will misinterpret and misconstrue, permitting plenty of opportunities for accidental conflagrations. North Korea's actions are not insane. They follow a very simple oriental common sense, so simple that it's easy to miss. They will also take us further from a normalization of relations with the North Korean regime, which is the only policy likely to deflate military tensions in the long run, in my opinion. We must not pretend to be friends with the North Koreans, but we must stop giving North Korea the impression that we pose an existential threat to their country or regime. See there's one problem with the "North Korea will never be the party to start a war", because they already fired live artillery at a S Korean town. They already crossed the "willing to start a war" line, it could have easily escalated into a fullscale conflict and it's only by luck that it didn't.
The North Korean shellings last month were in retaliation to a South Korean naval exercise which North Korea regarded as having trespassed its maritime borders. North Korea regards such exercises as provocative and violations of her sovereignty.
That's to put the situation in simple terms. The reasonable thing to do would be clarify the situation as the North Koreans see it. Not call them crazy.
The mere existence of SK and USA is taken as an existential threat to NK regime.
NK is like a spoiled child that is getting crankier by the day.
Last edit: 2010-12-13 20:20:01
To a spoiled child, some butt kicking is the true medicine, not chocolate.
The metaphor is less than apt; spoiled children want attention. The North Korean regime wants first and foremost to be left alone.
Even if the metaphor were valid, it hardly seems sensible to treat a neurotic child who acts up because he fears abuse to the precise measures which were the causes of his neurosis.
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On December 14 2010 03:03 bRuTaL!! wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2010 02:59 ZERG_RUSSIAN wrote:On December 13 2010 20:18 SCC-Faust wrote:On December 13 2010 20:09 ZERG_RUSSIAN wrote:Okay, that's the last straw. I'm fucking outta here. Goodbye Korea, it's been fun while it lasted . You are joking, right? No, I'm leaving Korea. I have other reasons as well, but the whole "we gonna nuke u k" is not exactly helping. I suppose you left planet earth during the cold war as well...
No. I actually wasn't alive then. I am leaving Korea for various reasons, but this definitely is not a reason to stay.
Thanks for your snide comment. I will return you one, because I don't think I deserve it, and you seem like you are just the kind of person who needs one.
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On December 14 2010 03:51 MoltkeWarding wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2010 02:21 Duban wrote:On December 13 2010 19:51 MoltkeWarding wrote:North Korea will never be the party to start a war. What these totally unnecessary and frivolous naval exercises accomplish is the creation of a scenario which North Korea will misinterpret and misconstrue, permitting plenty of opportunities for accidental conflagrations. North Korea's actions are not insane. They follow a very simple oriental common sense, so simple that it's easy to miss. They will also take us further from a normalization of relations with the North Korean regime, which is the only policy likely to deflate military tensions in the long run, in my opinion. We must not pretend to be friends with the North Koreans, but we must stop giving North Korea the impression that we pose an existential threat to their country or regime. See there's one problem with the "North Korea will never be the party to start a war", because they already fired live artillery at a S Korean town. They already crossed the "willing to start a war" line, it could have easily escalated into a fullscale conflict and it's only by luck that it didn't. The North Korean shellings last month were in retaliation to a South Korean naval exercise which North Korea regarded as having trespassed its maritime borders. North Korea regards such exercises as provocative and violations of her sovereignty. That's to put the situation in simple terms. The reasonable thing to do would be clarify the situation as the North Koreans see it. Not call them crazy. Show nested quote +The mere existence of SK and USA is taken as an existential threat to NK regime.
NK is like a spoiled child that is getting crankier by the day.
Last edit: 2010-12-13 20:20:01
To a spoiled child, some butt kicking is the true medicine, not chocolate. The metaphor is less than apt; spoiled children want attention. The North Korean regime wants first and foremost to be left alone. Even if the metaphor were valid, it hardly seems sensible to treat a neurotic child who acts up because he fears abuse to the precise measures which were the causes of his neurosis.
The problem is the metaphor...
the "North Korean regime" doesn't want anything... it is a fiction like a corporation. corporations/governments don't want Anything.
Individuals within the corporation/government want things and they act to influence other members of the corporation/government as well as outsiders.
Individuals within the government could
want attention for purely personal reasons (Ego feeding)
want attention for political reasons (increasing their power over others in the government)
want attention for reasons of getting aid to North Korea...either for personal or political reasons
want to continue to maintain their power within North Korea
want not to die
etc.
And that's just some of what the individuals in the government want....
The second matter is of what those individuals believe.
There's the idea that Sadam Hussein may have believed he had a strong WMD program.. entirely possible because his people may not have been totally honest with him. Much easier in a society where information is tightly controlled.
So what all the various individuals in North Korean Government Think/Want, etc. then interacts to produce their actions.
The goal is to cause them to think/want things that will Not lead to attacks that lead people to die.
Apparently that failed... but the question of how to keep doing that is not answered with any type of metaphor.
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On December 14 2010 04:54 ZERG_RUSSIAN wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2010 03:03 bRuTaL!! wrote:
I suppose you left planet earth during the cold war as well... No. I actually wasn't alive then. I am leaving Korea for various reasons, but this definitely is not a reason to stay. Thanks for your snide comment. I will return you one, because I don't think I deserve it, and you seem like you are just the kind of person who needs one.
Certainly no reason to stay. Should have put my troll face on when I made that comment  . My point is, there ALWAYS something. Since dawn of media, theres always some kind of impending doom. In all likelihood, your more likely to die on your flight out of Korea than by a nuke...
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On December 14 2010 05:26 bRuTaL!! wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2010 04:54 ZERG_RUSSIAN wrote:On December 14 2010 03:03 bRuTaL!! wrote:
I suppose you left planet earth during the cold war as well... No. I actually wasn't alive then. I am leaving Korea for various reasons, but this definitely is not a reason to stay. Thanks for your snide comment. I will return you one, because I don't think I deserve it, and you seem like you are just the kind of person who needs one. Certainly no reason to stay. Should have put my troll face on when I made that comment . My point is, there ALWAYS something. Since dawn of media, theres always some kind of impending doom. In all likelihood, your more likely to die on your flight out of Korea than by a nuke...
Feeling safe is a pretty big part of living. Living in fear of something sucks a lot. I have an irrational fear of car accidents, but just cause it's irrational doesn't mean I can drive anywhere.
No reason to stay somewhere where you think a war is going to break out. Imagine someone tells you that they are going to blow up your town. If the odds are 10% do you stay since you have decent odds?
Of course the odds of me dying to a heart attack are extremely high, and Im not very afraid of that, even though that is the most rational fear I can have, strange the way the mind works
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Weird. I thought only just few days ago, North Korea promised to the top China officials that visited Pyongyang, that North Korea won't try to raise any tension further. I bet China won't be very happy now.
Just to clarify, they are responded to the US, Japan joint exercise, the biggest yet. Not the US, South Korea joint exercise that ended last week.
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On December 14 2010 02:21 Duban wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2010 19:51 MoltkeWarding wrote:North Korea will never be the party to start a war. What these totally unnecessary and frivolous naval exercises accomplish is the creation of a scenario which North Korea will misinterpret and misconstrue, permitting plenty of opportunities for accidental conflagrations. North Korea's actions are not insane. They follow a very simple oriental common sense, so simple that it's easy to miss. They will also take us further from a normalization of relations with the North Korean regime, which is the only policy likely to deflate military tensions in the long run, in my opinion. We must not pretend to be friends with the North Koreans, but we must stop giving North Korea the impression that we pose an existential threat to their country or regime. See there's one problem with the "North Korea will never be the party to start a war", because they already fired live artillery at a S Korean town. They already crossed the "willing to start a war" line, it could have easily escalated into a fullscale conflict and it's only by luck that it didn't.
Luck has absolutely nothing to do with it. Did you even read this thread? That was covered repeatedly.
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On December 14 2010 05:02 Krikkitone wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2010 03:51 MoltkeWarding wrote:On December 14 2010 02:21 Duban wrote:On December 13 2010 19:51 MoltkeWarding wrote:North Korea will never be the party to start a war. What these totally unnecessary and frivolous naval exercises accomplish is the creation of a scenario which North Korea will misinterpret and misconstrue, permitting plenty of opportunities for accidental conflagrations. North Korea's actions are not insane. They follow a very simple oriental common sense, so simple that it's easy to miss. They will also take us further from a normalization of relations with the North Korean regime, which is the only policy likely to deflate military tensions in the long run, in my opinion. We must not pretend to be friends with the North Koreans, but we must stop giving North Korea the impression that we pose an existential threat to their country or regime. See there's one problem with the "North Korea will never be the party to start a war", because they already fired live artillery at a S Korean town. They already crossed the "willing to start a war" line, it could have easily escalated into a fullscale conflict and it's only by luck that it didn't. The North Korean shellings last month were in retaliation to a South Korean naval exercise which North Korea regarded as having trespassed its maritime borders. North Korea regards such exercises as provocative and violations of her sovereignty. That's to put the situation in simple terms. The reasonable thing to do would be clarify the situation as the North Koreans see it. Not call them crazy. The mere existence of SK and USA is taken as an existential threat to NK regime.
NK is like a spoiled child that is getting crankier by the day.
Last edit: 2010-12-13 20:20:01
To a spoiled child, some butt kicking is the true medicine, not chocolate. The metaphor is less than apt; spoiled children want attention. The North Korean regime wants first and foremost to be left alone. Even if the metaphor were valid, it hardly seems sensible to treat a neurotic child who acts up because he fears abuse to the precise measures which were the causes of his neurosis. The problem is the metaphor... the "North Korean regime" doesn't want anything... it is a fiction like a corporation. corporations/governments don't want Anything. Individuals within the corporation/government want things and they act to influence other members of the corporation/government as well as outsiders. Individuals within the government could want attention for purely personal reasons (Ego feeding) want attention for political reasons (increasing their power over others in the government) want attention for reasons of getting aid to North Korea...either for personal or political reasons want to continue to maintain their power within North Korea want not to die etc. And that's just some of what the individuals in the government want.... The second matter is of what those individuals believe. There's the idea that Sadam Hussein may have believed he had a strong WMD program.. entirely possible because his people may not have been totally honest with him. Much easier in a society where information is tightly controlled. So what all the various individuals in North Korean Government Think/Want, etc. then interacts to produce their actions. The goal is to cause them to think/want things that will Not lead to attacks that lead people to die. Apparently that failed... but the question of how to keep doing that is not answered with any type of metaphor.
Saddam Hussein was intentionally ambiguous about his country's nuclear weapons programme to hedge against Iranian aggression. That has been public knowledge for a while now.
I'm satisfied with the verb "want" as the action behind North Korean policy. Indeed, in this case that is the only thing which is relevant, since not even the best experts know for certain what originated with whom in North Korea. What matters is we hear what their plenipotentiaries say the North Korean state wants, and take them at their word.
How do you propose to cause "them" to think/want things that will nor lead to attacks, when "them" is a fiction, by your definition, and there are no identifiable individuals to set in "their" place?
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An update for anyone wondering:
South Korea is planning more live fire exercises sometime from Saturday-Tuesday (18th-21st) on the very same Yeonpyeong Island. They plan to shoot off artillery just the same as before but with US & UN officials there to monitor the drills and confirm it's not violating the DRPK's territory. They've publicly announced to North Korea where they will be firing and notified everyone ahead of time.
North Korea, unsurprisingly, has issued a warning that if South Korea does this drill they will retaliate with " self-defensive strikes" that would be "deadlier" than last time. Earlier today, the North Korean website again warned "If war breaks out, it will lead to nuclear warfare and will not be limited to the Korean Peninsula."
Despite this, the South Korean Defense Ministry so far says the drills will continue as planned. The statement released said "Our military decided not to reply after concluding that we do not need to respond to every threat and unreasonable argument by the North."
Keep in mind that if another attack is made on South Korea, they vowed to respond with military force and call air strikes on all of North Korean artillery. Hopefully this doesn't escalate into another conflict.
Sources are Yohap & VOA news reporter in SK.
Yohap Article
http://twitter.com/YonhapNews
http://twitter.com/W7VOA
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Yea I read that on yahoo, it's such a shame that North Korea is run by a bunch of crazy assholes. Still, it just seems as though SK is trying to instigate something. I guess a larger scale conflict was inevitable at this point.
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do you think NK will actually follow through with their threat this time since SK is openly ignoring the threats? 0.o and NUCLEAR strikes? wth..
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On December 18 2010 01:17 QuoC wrote:
do you think NK will actually follow through with their threat this time since SK is openly ignoring the threats? 0.o and NUCLEAR strikes? wth..
For the time being while N Korea has nukes in the technical sense they don't have any way to deploy them against a hostile country. In order to move them around they would need to put them on a truck and then somehow get them through to somewhere while avoiding boarder security. They might be able to hide a few nukes around N Korea like mines but the likelihood of any of them escaping N Korea is very small.
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If nukes are launched, I'm sure south korea / US have plenty of SAM ready to shoot them down ... I don't think NK has the nuclear arsenal to launch a sufficient number of missiles to evade the SAM?
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The nukes, while worrisome, are not the main worry... they have enough artillery pointed at Seoul that it would be just a bad as a nuke.
The nuke would mostly be in terms of "not limited to the Korean peninsula"... probably Japan or they might have some to reach the US (at least Alaska)
SAMs also would not be good at shooting down a nuke (unless it is to be delivered by a bomber)
Hopefully they don't
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On December 18 2010 01:25 shublar wrote:
If nukes are launched, I'm sure south korea / US have plenty of SAM ready to shoot them down ... I don't think NK has the nuclear arsenal to launch a sufficient number of missiles to evade the SAM?
Well, if it escalates into full blown conflict, nothing stopping them from using air planes to drop those bombs. We also don't know the locations of those nukes so they can be anywhere, even on the border and we would not know. Not to mention that the relative distance between NK and SK's populated areas is not very far.
If NK does carry out the threat of an "even deadlier strike" it can very well escalate into another war. What is kind of "o_O" moment is when they said "nuclear war/strikes would not just be in the korean peninsula"
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I am pretty sure SAMS do not shoot down missles(only can shoot down planes), and especially nuclear misslies. Even if they shoot it down in the air, it will still cause major damage.
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EPT
