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On May 04 2010 09:45 MoltkeWarding wrote:
The consensus on this forum is merely aping the Gibbonesque faith in perpetual modernity, two hundred years later, with inferior eloquence, inferior learning, and shallower perspective.
Proof that even the most brilliant men become the fools of time.
lol, good argument
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I'm not pessimistic or optimistic, I'm making use of realism and all I see is that the path we are headed is not a pretty one. We've been living in an unsustainable way for much too long already. I don't believe scientific progress will help our cause at all, how could it. Natural resources cannot be replicated. Livestock farming and industrial agriculture has done an enormous amount of damage on our ecosystem...
If we don't drastically modify our food production and distribution systems globally, we're going to run out of fossil fuel, topsoil, and fresh water a few decades down the road. Just like any other animal species that's overshot its carrying capacity, the excess population is going to succumb to starvation and disease, there's going to be some serious environmental degradation, further lowering carrying capacity, and the population and carrying capacity at the end of the crash is going to be considerably lower. I'm betting we're going to see gigadeaths by the end of this century. Happily I'm not going to be around to collect.
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On May 04 2010 10:44 Hollow wrote:
I'm not pessimistic or optimistic, I'm making use of realism and all I see is that the path we are headed is not a pretty one. We've been living in an unsustainable way for much too long already. I don't believe scientific progress will help our cause at all, how could it. Natural resources cannot be replicated. Livestock farming and industrial agriculture has done an enormous amount of damage on our ecosystem...
If we don't drastically modify our food production and distribution systems globally, we're going to run out of fossil fuel, topsoil, and fresh water a few decades down the road. Just like any other animal species that's overshot its carrying capacity, the excess population is going to succumb to starvation and disease, there's going to be some serious environmental degradation, further lowering carrying capacity, and the population and carrying capacity at the end of the crash is going to be considerably lower. I'm betting we're going to see gigadeaths by the end of this century. Happily I'm not going to be around to collect.
Woorrd, people who look solely on increases in standards of living and technology are shortsighted. There are more to a bright future for humanity than flashy trinkets and more fast food to eat.
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I'm thinking the conflicts will arise... but in the end we will have peace.
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im pessimistic about this, only cause i see people the way Calvin or Hobbes (the thinkers, not the cartoon charters =P) would see them. =\
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On May 04 2010 11:15 sLiniss wrote:
I'm thinking the conflicts will arise... but in the end we will have peace.
Without external conflicts, humanity will stagnate, people will grow complacent and internal issues will arise. There can be no absolute world peace.
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On May 04 2010 10:22 Faronel wrote:Show nested quote +On May 03 2010 20:53 Reason wrote:On May 03 2010 20:09 Warrior Madness wrote:It's gonna be awesome bro. MY LIFE FOR AIURRTHHH. But in all seriousness it's going to be unfathomable for us to imagine how people will think, act, live and even look like in the future. Can you picture taking someone from the 16th century and showing them all the marvels of an iPhone? It'd be beyond their comprehension. It'll be the same with us and whatever happens in the future. Also, what's even more fascinating is I was reading physicstoday and based on computer simulations and certain scientific trials they made the best possible prediction science can give us today on how humans will presumably evolve in the next few millennium. Your average male today: + Show Spoiler +phase 1: + Show Spoiler +Phase 2: + Show Spoiler +Phase 3: + Show Spoiler +Phase 4: + Show Spoiler + Some funny pictures man, but you are totally wrong. Nothing is beyond our comprehension. We have already imagined way beyond what we will ever achieve. Maybe millions of years in the future if we are still going we might somehow advance past the most absurd science fiction but even then it's still conceivable, I bet sci-fi gonna be pretty fucked up in 50 years lol. Never ever say never. Remember that quote from the head of the British patent office back in the late 1800's "Everything that can be invented has been invented"? You're falling into that trap of limiting your mind.
I'm limiting my mind with the statement "nothing is beyond our comprehension"?
LOL
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I'm rather optimistic. I feel that even with the wars, famines, and terrorism the world is still better than it use to be. I think that we will continue to have wars and many other kinds of human suffering forever, but the average quality of life will continue to improve.
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This is quite funny, everyone bashes China for it's 1 child per person policy and then admits being scared of overpopulation. 
I'd say I'm optimistic. Or at least I don't fancy imaginating crazy-over-the-top end of the world theories like some people here do.
Humanity needs to stop hating itself. It's getting old fast.
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On May 04 2010 10:41 sob3k wrote:Show nested quote +On May 04 2010 09:45 MoltkeWarding wrote:
The consensus on this forum is merely aping the Gibbonesque faith in perpetual modernity, two hundred years later, with inferior eloquence, inferior learning, and shallower perspective.
Proof that even the most brilliant men become the fools of time. lol, good argument
what i want to know is how you got the impression that he was actually attempting an argument. have you seen Moltke argue before? the chances of it being shorter than a good-sized novel are slim.
and by the way Moltke's right. he's got a longstanding habit of being crucially, painfully right. i love that dude.
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Rome < Germanic Tribes
^ ^
^ ^
^ ^
^ ^
USA < Everyone else
=[
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I thought about the future sometimes, and having some great ideas from science-fiction books and films together with analyzing our present to find the hidden seeds of the future (if you look at history every period prepared the next), i found 3(+1) possible futures :
1 - I call this the post-industrial era. Techonological progress will allow for a decentralization of all production processes, ending the industrial era and doing alot do lessen pollution. This is the future with robots and clean renewable energy sources. Money-less star trek like economy will replace the market economy. This option will happen if we develop robotic or otherwise automatic processes to create all the items we need locally (with the first applications of nanotechnology) and if we move to clean and renwable energy. It will end with the full development of nanotechnology i guess, no idea where it goes from there. This is the future of space sci-fi films, at least most of them. War is no longer the driving force of history.
2 - This is the corporations at war scenario. Progress is partially halted by corporate interests. National states will disappear and be replaced completely by corporations, who will fight for the remaining resources on the planet. Might end with final self-destruction and extinction or with one corporation winning. In this scenario progress and history are still driven by war. Progress won't go towards nanotech and clean energy but more directly towards space colonization and weapon development, without the proper means to do it (option 1 has alot more chances to colonize the whole solar system than this). But in case humanity won't just self-destruct, once there's only one corporation ruling the whole planet, progress might resume properly.
3- Worst scenario, (the apolalypse)basically we consume all resources, don't try to find replacements but instead fight over what's left and self-destruct our civilization. Humanity might survive with little to no technology left and might go exctinct later due to climate change. Nuclear winter followed by a nuclear summer and maybe a glaciation. Hard for our species to survive all that. Or start over in a few thousand years and try again.
4 - New middle age scenario. Neutral scenario, will evolve in one of the aforementioned 3. Progress is stagnated by new oscurantism, no new science allowed and a new feudal system arises, with the masses not having access to all those goods anymore, the planet will be able to sustain the population, which will also drop. A really boring scenario. Like planet of the apes without apes.
I voted optimistic because even with all the problems i can see the seeds of the post-industrial era being the strongest, followed by the seeds of a corporation war scenario. While the second isn't the best possible it's still not too bad. I don't see the worst scenario or the boring neutral one currently being prepared, this might change in the future.
So we have to hope that robotics, nanotech and clean energy will be developed in time.
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i don't see how any1 can be optimistic about the future based on whats happening around the world today...
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With improvements in technology come improvements in quality of life. Technology improves exponentially.
With increase in population comes an increase in scarcity of resources. Population increase exponentially.
I think for the middle class and up life will only be better in the future, for those below middle class it could get increasingly bad... but the poor have been dying for millenia, what's new. At least they're not slave labor (mostly, not counting certain parts of Africa, middle-eastern women, and Dubai laborers among others) any more?
I am mostly optimistic because of things like this: http://www.ted.com/talks/craig_venter_is_on_the_verge_of_creating_synthetic_life.html and other technological advances. However, we need to find new ways to feed our people and sustain our transportation of people and goods with less environmental impact. Will that happen in time? I hope so, but the clock is ticking.
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On May 03 2010 21:05 sc4k wrote:
About 70% optimistic. With science evolving, farming will get better and better. Food production will become more and more efficient. Water will be better recycled. When less developed countries catch up in development, their populations will stabilise.
Plus if you want to look at history you should look at the Cold War and how not one nuclear missile was released.
The problem is that people assume these are all good things.
'Mo' money, Mo' problems' type of thing.
If people live longer and there is more food etc. Then we have a whole new set of problems. More pollution, more corruption, overpopulation, etc. etc.
Human beings are a disease to earth.
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The future ain't what it used to be.
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my giant dong makes me pessimistic about the future. Were all going to die.
Because of my giant dong.
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There haven't exactly been that many big strides in science.
Even scientists know that the money's in retail science.
And P to the S - I think, we've survived this long. We'll make it even longer.
We're not going to change our human nature though. That requires a biological change too.
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