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On July 31 2012 07:07 Gaga wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2012 07:00 WhiteDog wrote:On July 31 2012 06:56 Gaga wrote:On July 31 2012 06:55 WhiteDog wrote:
Germany doesn't benefit from the euro, but from the europe and the schengen treaty. The euro is only a currency. wtf dude, i speak about the currency. You don't even know what you are talking about really... You said that Germany suffering more than others from the euro collapse is a myth, which is wrong. Germany will suffer more, even if it doesn't mean that they are indeed gaining more than other from the euro zone. Thats a very hypothetical thing to say when one cannot really predict what would happen in/after a collapse. Ofc germany would loose all the money they lend to others ... but i would say it's lost anyway. The only thing that will have to happen is that we will export less and have to consume more ourselves. Why would that equate to more suffering, than others who right now live on external loans, will have to face huge troubles as well ? Care to explain ? p.s. and please shut the fuck up with that "You don't even know what you are talking about really... " thats what i have in my mind about you as well, but i don't write it in every fucking post.
You don't understand that Germany's well being is more dependant on the overall well being or demand of other country than says France because Germany gain a good part of his wealth from export, while a country such a France has a negative commercial balance ?
So, if there is a global crisis within the euro zone, Germany is most likely to suffer more because they are depandant from others, just like Netherlands is really dependant from Germany's well being.
If says France suffer from the crisis, it will also impact on Germany since the trade balance between Germany and France is in favor of Germany : if you gain money by selling shit, and if nobody can buy your shit anymore, then you don't make money. Which is basically why Germany suffered more than France after the subprime crisis, the overall stop on consumption and investment impact more on its economy. In France for exemple, our economy suffered less directly from the crisis because our economy is heavily set on rather unelastic sector such as the public sector.
You're speaking out of your ass. Should you even take a glimpse where Germany, Finland and the Netherlands export you will see that the majority of the exports go outside of Euro zone.
And you think that if the euro zone collapse the crisis will stay within the EU zone, you are dumb.
Also, while it's true that Germany's partner in trade are not entirely european, as china, the US and Japan are a rather big partner, the euro zone still represent more than half of its partner.
Top 15 Countries for German Exports in 2005
France ... US$99 billion (10.2% of total German exports)
U.S. ... $85.5 billion (8.8%)
U.K. ... $76.7 billion (7.9%)
Italy ... $67 billion (6.9%)
Netherlands ... $59.2 billion (6.1%)
Belgium ... $54.4 billion (5.6%)
Austria ... $52.4 billion (5.4%)
Spain ... $49.5 billion (5.1%)
Switzerland ... $36.9 billion (3.8%)
China ... $31.1 billion (3.2%)
Poland ... $25.3 billion (2.6%)
Czech Republic ... $23.3 billion (2.4%)
Sweden ... $21.4 billion (2.2%)
Russia ... $19.4 billion (2.0%)
Japan ... $16.5 billion (1.7%)
http://suite101.com/article/germany-s-trade-buddies-a10156
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There is a lot of tension within the European community at the moment. Personally I hope for the dissolution of the E.U. My hopes are to go in the other direction. Greece is just a scapegoat . The whole south plus smaller countries have serious problems, italy, spain, portugal, ireland and if england was in euro they should have big time problems as well.
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I think a nothern union with finland, denmark netherlands, austria, france, poland + misc eastern states would work pretty well. The young eastern democracies bring in the innovation and growth rate, france+germany bring in mass+stability. The political system and mentality is not that different in mid, north and east europe.
Regarding the "who will suffer more": all europe countries existed pre-EU, and germany did well with D-Mark. In fact wages in germany stalled since introduction of the euro while wages in spain and greece grew ~40%. So it is still a wonder, public opinion is not completely anti-euro .. (however it gets worse every day as we don't want to finance public debt with money printing: the favored "solution" of monti+hollande).
BTW sarkozy was a much more respectable president. Hollande seems to live in a parellel universe regarding economics .. i don't think the french would enjoy having a lira-like inflationary euro.
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Reading the current news, Spain is not considering using the ESF. It's either print money or just leave the euro. Italy also would never do such a step, and this can be said for most states, especially after they've seen what cost Greece had to pay.
There is the possibility of the BCE taking decisions with maiority votes, with Germany, the Netherlands and a few others voting against.
Personally i can agree that ending the euro in its current form might be the solution, without a political union it makes no sense, as every member state has to account for his own electorate, so Germany for example cannot support stronger measures even if rationally they're necessary, because whoever does that, will lose alot of votes at home.
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On August 01 2012 09:19 Ganondorf wrote:
Reading the current news, Spain is not considering using the ESF. It's either print money or just leave the euro. Italy also would never do such a step, and this can be said for most states, especially after they've seen what cost Greece had to pay.
There is the possibility of the BCE taking decisions with maiority votes, with Germany, the Netherlands and a few others voting against.
Personally i can agree that ending the euro in its current form might be the solution, without a political union it makes no sense, as every member state has to account for his own electorate, so Germany for example cannot support stronger measures even if rationally they're necessary, because whoever does that, will lose alot of votes at home.
the problem with money printing is, that you start a race to 'who makes the most debt'. money printing will lead to inflation sooner or later, so the debt is socialized. So: who makes the most debt has the greatest advantage. Politicians in all countries will start reckless lending.
Greece has not paid anything, it just stopped receiving (partially). That's the hard truth. In fact they are not even close to finance their level of living without cash injections (by debt). The politicians (and their voters) in greece are to blame for their mess-up. Driving the the country into insolvency by ballooning burocracy, welfare while de-industrializing the whole country is just ridiculous. Anybody able to do basic math operations and using public avaiable numbers could calculate, that the country will crash sooner or later. Even if interest rates would have been stayed at 3% this would have happened.
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On August 01 2012 09:45 Schnullerbacke13 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2012 09:19 Ganondorf wrote:
Reading the current news, Spain is not considering using the ESF. It's either print money or just leave the euro. Italy also would never do such a step, and this can be said for most states, especially after they've seen what cost Greece had to pay.
There is the possibility of the BCE taking decisions with maiority votes, with Germany, the Netherlands and a few others voting against.
Personally i can agree that ending the euro in its current form might be the solution, without a political union it makes no sense, as every member state has to account for his own electorate, so Germany for example cannot support stronger measures even if rationally they're necessary, because whoever does that, will lose alot of votes at home. the problem with money printing is, that you start a race to 'who makes the most debt'. money printing will lead to inflation sooner or later, so the debt is socialized. So: who makes the most debt has the greatest advantage. Politicians in all countries will start reckless lending. Greece has not paid anything, it just stopped receiving (partially). That's the hard truth. In fact they are not even close to finance their level of living without cash injections (by debt). The politicians (and their voters) in greece are to blame for their mess-up. Driving the the country into insolvency by ballooning burocracy, welfare while de-industrializing the whole country is just ridiculous. Anybody able to do basic math operations and using public avaiable numbers could calculate, that the country will crash sooner or later. Even if interest rates would have been stayed at 3% this would have happened.
I suppose all your assumptions are based off something more rigorous than just your own point of view ?
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On August 01 2012 01:02 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2012 07:07 Gaga wrote:On July 31 2012 07:00 WhiteDog wrote:On July 31 2012 06:56 Gaga wrote:On July 31 2012 06:55 WhiteDog wrote:
Germany doesn't benefit from the euro, but from the europe and the schengen treaty. The euro is only a currency. wtf dude, i speak about the currency. You don't even know what you are talking about really... You said that Germany suffering more than others from the euro collapse is a myth, which is wrong. Germany will suffer more, even if it doesn't mean that they are indeed gaining more than other from the euro zone. Thats a very hypothetical thing to say when one cannot really predict what would happen in/after a collapse. Ofc germany would loose all the money they lend to others ... but i would say it's lost anyway. The only thing that will have to happen is that we will export less and have to consume more ourselves. Why would that equate to more suffering, than others who right now live on external loans, will have to face huge troubles as well ? Care to explain ? p.s. and please shut the fuck up with that "You don't even know what you are talking about really... " thats what i have in my mind about you as well, but i don't write it in every fucking post. You don't understand that Germany's well being is more dependant on the overall well being or demand of other country than says France because Germany gain a good part of his wealth from export, while a country such a France has a negative commercial balance ? So, if there is a global crisis within the euro zone, Germany is most likely to suffer more because they are depandant from others, just like Netherlands is really dependant from Germany's well being. If says France suffer from the crisis, it will also impact on Germany since the trade balance between Germany and France is in favor of Germany : if you gain money by selling shit, and if nobody can buy your shit anymore, then you don't make money. Which is basically why Germany suffered more than France after the subprime crisis, the overall stop on consumption and investment impact more on its economy. In France for exemple, our economy suffered less directly from the crisis because our economy is heavily set on rather unelastic sector such as the public sector. Show nested quote +You're speaking out of your ass. Should you even take a glimpse where Germany, Finland and the Netherlands export you will see that the majority of the exports go outside of Euro zone. And you think that if the euro zone collapse the crisis will stay within the EU zone, you are dumb. Also, while it's true that Germany's partner in trade are not entirely european, as china, the US and Japan are a rather big partner, the euro zone still represent more than half of its partner. Top 15 Countries for German Exports in 2005 France ... US$99 billion (10.2% of total German exports) U.S. ... $85.5 billion (8.8%) U.K. ... $76.7 billion (7.9%) Italy ... $67 billion (6.9%) Netherlands ... $59.2 billion (6.1%) Belgium ... $54.4 billion (5.6%) Austria ... $52.4 billion (5.4%) Spain ... $49.5 billion (5.1%) Switzerland ... $36.9 billion (3.8%) China ... $31.1 billion (3.2%) Poland ... $25.3 billion (2.6%) Czech Republic ... $23.3 billion (2.4%) Sweden ... $21.4 billion (2.2%) Russia ... $19.4 billion (2.0%) Japan ... $16.5 billion (1.7%) http://suite101.com/article/germany-s-trade-buddies-a10156
I aggree with most of what you said, but don't back it up with data from 2005... This has changed quite a bit.
2011 data released on 12.07.2012. It's in German, but should be understandable (just country names and numbers...).
Didn't expect the Netherlands to be that high in this chart, but i'm really glad about it. Also about France being the most important partner.
Still this doesn't express a lot. It gets a lot more complicated when a real crisis occurs, just think about the goods behind the numbers... When i think about that, a heavy crisis will hit Germany very hard!
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Germany stands to loose the most (off course) from the end of the euro.
Where its exports go does not realy matter, once germany has the dmark back every country is forgein to them..
Germany stands to loose the most because it will get back a stronger dmark wich will hurt its exports.
The netherlands (and finland and austria) will also get a strong currency themselves.
That germany stands to loose the most you can also see in the behaviour of the greek and the germans.
The greek dont reach the targets they agreed on time and again, and germany gives in time and again.
There is more at stake though then who stands to loose the most, there is also an ideological agenda behind all this.
The ideological agenda to to slowly unite the world (wich is a good thing!)
Annyway:today is monney printing day.
The markets in reaction on draghis comments a few days ago are clearly anticipating a magical solution (printing monney) and the question is now if the ecb will deliver.
Personally i dont expect a solution to be announced already though i do think that it will follow soon.
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On August 01 2012 11:44 Rassy wrote:
Germany stands to loose the most (off course) from the end of the euro.
Where its exports go does not realy matter, once germany has the dmark back every country is forgein to them..
Germany stands to loose the most because it will get back a stronger dmark wich will hurt its exports.
The netherlands (and finland and austria) will also get a strong currency themselves.
That germany stands to loose the most you can also see in the behaviour of the greek and the germans.
The greek dont reach the targets they agreed on time and again, and germany gives in time and again.
There is more at stake though then who stands to loose the most, there is also an ideological agenda behind all this.
The ideological agenda to to slowly unite the world (wich is a good thing!)
Annyway:today is monney printing day.
The markets in reaction on draghis comments a few days ago are clearly anticipating a magical solution (printing monney) and the question is now if the ecb will deliver.
Personally i dont expect a solution to be announced already though i do think that it will follow soon.
Germany has the option to devalue the dmark though. Look at Switzerland - one of the strongest economies in the World, but they opted for QE to make their exports more competitive and prevent capital inflow. Germany could realistically do the same thing.
But I agree with what you said about Draghi. He is a very dangerous man indeed!
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I hate knowing what's going to happen but being too picky. Was totally expecting NO QE3 today. That, and we added like... 40k non-farm jobs? Or 40k more than expected? Yeah, less month-to-month, but 40k more than expected.
Eur/Usd went down 75 pips in 45 minutes.
Remember, an economy that is > 0% growth is still growing.
Also, the smart money is short on gold.
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On August 02 2012 04:24 DigiGnar wrote:
I hate knowing what's going to happen but being too picky. Was totally expecting NO QE3 today. That, and we added like... 40k non-farm jobs? Or 40k more than expected? Yeah, less month-to-month, but 40k more than expected.
Eur/Usd went down 75 pips in 45 minutes.
Remember, an economy that is > 0% growth is still growing.
Also, the smart money is short on gold.
Could you explain the gold short logic to me? I think I just might have a different mid term outlook..
Btw I agree it could be quite overvalued at present, but how long can the fed hold on more QE?
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On August 02 2012 04:24 DigiGnar wrote:
I hate knowing what's going to happen but being too picky. Was totally expecting NO QE3 today. That, and we added like... 40k non-farm jobs? Or 40k more than expected? Yeah, less month-to-month, but 40k more than expected.
Eur/Usd went down 75 pips in 45 minutes.
Remember, an economy that is > 0% growth is still growing.
Also, the smart money is short on gold.
if you have soo low growth with such extrem cheap money .... thats bad... stagflation and Japan comes to mind.
You should know that or just want to sound smart.
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On August 02 2012 06:59 Gaga wrote:Show nested quote +On August 02 2012 04:24 DigiGnar wrote:
I hate knowing what's going to happen but being too picky. Was totally expecting NO QE3 today. That, and we added like... 40k non-farm jobs? Or 40k more than expected? Yeah, less month-to-month, but 40k more than expected.
Eur/Usd went down 75 pips in 45 minutes.
Remember, an economy that is > 0% growth is still growing.
Also, the smart money is short on gold. if you have soo low growth with such extrem cheap money .... thats bad... stagflation and Japan comes to mind. You should know that or just want to sound smart.
Yeah and how much of that GDP is government spending or printing...
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On August 02 2012 06:07 Trowa127 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 02 2012 04:24 DigiGnar wrote:
I hate knowing what's going to happen but being too picky. Was totally expecting NO QE3 today. That, and we added like... 40k non-farm jobs? Or 40k more than expected? Yeah, less month-to-month, but 40k more than expected.
Eur/Usd went down 75 pips in 45 minutes.
Remember, an economy that is > 0% growth is still growing.
Also, the smart money is short on gold. Could you explain the gold short logic to me? I think I just might have a different mid term outlook.. Btw I agree it could be quite overvalued at present, but how long can the fed hold on more QE?
The smart money is short on gold far more than they are long. Futures contracts and the commitments of traders. Valuable stuff. The commecial section is what you want to look at. These numbers are a bit different since these numbers were published last weeks Tuesday. They have new numbers from yesterday, but they won't be posted until Friday. Even in the total, Gold is short more than long. But the smart money has 150k more contracts short on gold than long.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/iITzf.png)
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
If you look at the year-long chart, you will notice that price is forming a descending traingle. This is bearish. Also, price came from a channel up, which will usually break out downards, though there's a chance it will just go sideways. If gold does manage to go up, however, it could very well go back to 1900 and form a double top, which is bearish itself. The drop from here would be spectacular.
On August 02 2012 06:59 Gaga wrote:Show nested quote +On August 02 2012 04:24 DigiGnar wrote:
I hate knowing what's going to happen but being too picky. Was totally expecting NO QE3 today. That, and we added like... 40k non-farm jobs? Or 40k more than expected? Yeah, less month-to-month, but 40k more than expected.
Eur/Usd went down 75 pips in 45 minutes.
Remember, an economy that is > 0% growth is still growing.
Also, the smart money is short on gold. if you have soo low growth with such extrem cheap money .... thats bad... stagflation and Japan comes to mind. You should know that or just want to sound smart.
If the US dollar is so cheap, why is the smart money selling it instead of buying it? They are buying up the euro, or may be doing so now after it's fall today. I do expect a correction in the US dollar. Maybe back to $79 for $DXY. That's if it breaks $81.5
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:IND/chart
http://cotbase.com/ (look at the USD index and you can see the commercial (red) line is in the oversold area)
Btw, Japan has a different economy than ours. They need a competitive Yen, so there's a lot of government intervention with the Yen.
Unless, of course, you have some sources you would like to show me.
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On August 02 2012 08:38 DigiGnar wrote:Show nested quote +On August 02 2012 06:07 Trowa127 wrote:On August 02 2012 04:24 DigiGnar wrote:
I hate knowing what's going to happen but being too picky. Was totally expecting NO QE3 today. That, and we added like... 40k non-farm jobs? Or 40k more than expected? Yeah, less month-to-month, but 40k more than expected.
Eur/Usd went down 75 pips in 45 minutes.
Remember, an economy that is > 0% growth is still growing.
Also, the smart money is short on gold. Could you explain the gold short logic to me? I think I just might have a different mid term outlook.. Btw I agree it could be quite overvalued at present, but how long can the fed hold on more QE? The smart money is short on gold far more than they are long. Futures contracts and the commitments of traders. Valuable stuff. The commecial section is what you want to look at. These numbers are a bit different since these numbers were published last weeks Tuesday. They have new numbers from yesterday, but they won't be posted until Friday. Even in the total, Gold is short more than long. But the smart money has 150k more contracts short on gold than long. http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlIf you look at the year-long chart, you will notice that price is forming a descending traingle. This is bearish. Also, price came from a channel up, which will usually break out downards, though there's a chance it will just go sideways. If gold does manage to go up, however, it could very well go back to 1900 and form a double top, which is bearish itself. The drop from here would be spectacular. Show nested quote +On August 02 2012 06:59 Gaga wrote:On August 02 2012 04:24 DigiGnar wrote:
I hate knowing what's going to happen but being too picky. Was totally expecting NO QE3 today. That, and we added like... 40k non-farm jobs? Or 40k more than expected? Yeah, less month-to-month, but 40k more than expected.
Eur/Usd went down 75 pips in 45 minutes.
Remember, an economy that is > 0% growth is still growing.
Also, the smart money is short on gold. if you have soo low growth with such extrem cheap money .... thats bad... stagflation and Japan comes to mind. You should know that or just want to sound smart. If the US dollar is so cheap, why is the smart money selling it instead of buying it? They are buying up the euro, or may be doing so now after it's fall today. I do expect a correction in the US dollar. Maybe back to $79 for $DXY. That's if it breaks $81.5 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:IND/charthttp://cotbase.com/ (look at the USD index and you can see the commercial (red) line is in the oversold area) Btw, Japan has a different economy than ours. They need a competitive Yen, so there's a lot of government intervention with the Yen. Unless, of course, you have some sources you would like to show me.
google it "Japan stagflation" first article : http://harvardmagazine.com/2010/07/an-aftermath-to-avoid
"Ever since the American housing bubble burst in 2008, economists have drawn comparisons between Japan and the United States: in both cases, an easy monetary policy helped feed asset bubbles in stocks and real estate while the absence of inflation hid the danger."
and not the dollar is cheap, but the interest by central banks is cheap. Thats what i mean with cheap money. btw comparing Dollar with Euro is in my book comparing 2 guys jumping out of a plane ... but i dont wanna discuss that.
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draghi was a huge let down. hes committed to keeping the euro intact yet isnt pursuing an sggressive strtegy of any sorts
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On August 02 2012 08:38 DigiGnar wrote:Show nested quote +On August 02 2012 06:07 Trowa127 wrote:On August 02 2012 04:24 DigiGnar wrote:
I hate knowing what's going to happen but being too picky. Was totally expecting NO QE3 today. That, and we added like... 40k non-farm jobs? Or 40k more than expected? Yeah, less month-to-month, but 40k more than expected.
Eur/Usd went down 75 pips in 45 minutes.
Remember, an economy that is > 0% growth is still growing.
Also, the smart money is short on gold. Could you explain the gold short logic to me? I think I just might have a different mid term outlook.. Btw I agree it could be quite overvalued at present, but how long can the fed hold on more QE? The smart money is short on gold far more than they are long. Futures contracts and the commitments of traders. Valuable stuff. The commecial section is what you want to look at. These numbers are a bit different since these numbers were published last weeks Tuesday. They have new numbers from yesterday, but they won't be posted until Friday. Even in the total, Gold is short more than long. But the smart money has 150k more contracts short on gold than long. http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.htmlIf you look at the year-long chart, you will notice that price is forming a descending traingle. This is bearish. Also, price came from a channel up, which will usually break out downards, though there's a chance it will just go sideways. If gold does manage to go up, however, it could very well go back to 1900 and form a double top, which is bearish itself. The drop from here would be spectacular. Show nested quote +On August 02 2012 06:59 Gaga wrote:On August 02 2012 04:24 DigiGnar wrote:
I hate knowing what's going to happen but being too picky. Was totally expecting NO QE3 today. That, and we added like... 40k non-farm jobs? Or 40k more than expected? Yeah, less month-to-month, but 40k more than expected.
Eur/Usd went down 75 pips in 45 minutes.
Remember, an economy that is > 0% growth is still growing.
Also, the smart money is short on gold. if you have soo low growth with such extrem cheap money .... thats bad... stagflation and Japan comes to mind. You should know that or just want to sound smart. If the US dollar is so cheap, why is the smart money selling it instead of buying it? They are buying up the euro, or may be doing so now after it's fall today. I do expect a correction in the US dollar. Maybe back to $79 for $DXY. That's if it breaks $81.5 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:IND/charthttp://cotbase.com/ (look at the USD index and you can see the commercial (red) line is in the oversold area) Btw, Japan has a different economy than ours. They need a competitive Yen, so there's a lot of government intervention with the Yen. Unless, of course, you have some sources you would like to show me.
I apologise. I didn't realise you were talking Forex and making money - I was talking about a more general long term outlook. I understand that currency traders deal in the short term, seconds, minutes, days - sorry I didn't clarify I meant long term effects here.
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On August 01 2012 01:06 Le French wrote:
There is a lot of tension within the European community at the moment. Personally I hope for the dissolution of the E.U. My hopes are to go in the other direction. Greece is just a scapegoat . The whole south plus smaller countries have serious problems, italy, spain, portugal, ireland and if england was in euro they should have big time problems as well.
Isn't England signed under the Lisbon Treaty?
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On August 08 2012 03:18 RageBot wrote:Show nested quote +On August 01 2012 01:06 Le French wrote:
There is a lot of tension within the European community at the moment. Personally I hope for the dissolution of the E.U. My hopes are to go in the other direction. Greece is just a scapegoat . The whole south plus smaller countries have serious problems, italy, spain, portugal, ireland and if england was in euro they should have big time problems as well. Isn't England signed under the Lisbon Treaty?
Guess hes talking about the Euro-Zone, means using Euro currency. thats seperate from the EU with lisbon treaty.
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EPT
