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moreno ran for 950 yds and 7 td's, and that was with the broncos being retarded and gutting their team for some stupid reason
JJ was blocked by edgerrin james, and it's not like he got any better later.
mendenhall broke his leg or something didn't he? you can't predict that
and if you expected big numbers from mccoy, you don't watch the eagles very often
to say that it's "amazingly rare" is really overstretching the truth
and considering he's going for a sleeper pick, there's no reason not to risk an 8th rounder on spiller if he thinks it could pay off
making sleeper picks on CJ 2 years ago brought me to the championship game
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Hrmz, in top 2 rounds, and bearing in mind that the only fantasy league I partake in is keeper (which affects my judgment of players)
2005:
Good: Ronnie Brown, Cadillac, special mention to Gore (Brown and Gore still chugging)
Bad: Benson, JJ Arrington, Eric Shelton (Benson with a late-career comeback)
2006:
Good: Maroney, Addai, MJD (Maroney and Addai died in terms of keeper)
Bad: Reggie Bush, Napoleon Williams, LenWhale (only Napoleon's still chugging)
2007:
Good: All Day, Marshawn (Marshawn is borderline atm)
Bad: Kenny Irons, Chris Henry, Brandon Jackson (...)
2008:
Good: Jon Stewart, CJ, Matt Forte (all studs, except for maybe Forte)
Bad: DMac, Felix Jones, Mendenhall, Ray Rice (Mendenhall and Rice rebounded)
2009:
Good: Knowshon (arguably)
Bad: DBrown, Beanie, McCoy, special mention to Greene
You have like a 50% chance of hitting on a rookie year RB's production, and when it comes to prolonged career success it gets even worse. So I guess my "amazingly rare" impression comes from all these RBs falling off the map, but eh.
From my perspective "sleeper RB picks" tend to be tail-end RBs like Knowshon (2nd round pick in 5-man keeper) and Ray Rice's second year (first-round pick) and Leron McClain (2nd round pick). But I guess because of Spiller's status as a 3rd RB he might fall more.
*shrugs*
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RBs getting decent play is a hell of a lot more likely than WR. Off of the top of my head, I really can't think of too many recently that were given a true chance to succeed (so let's say.... 175-200+ carries in a season) and didn't at least produce ok. I was gonna say Lawrence Maroney and Kevin Smith, but they both broke 8tds and 700yards on the year while hovering at 4ypc.
The value depends where you draft them. Knowshawn in the 7th or 8th or something is fine last year. If you plucked him early, well....  I agree with KOF, those sleeperpicks are what make or break teams.
Spiller may or may not be good, but that's not an ideal situation. Shit team, shit QB and three viable RBs on the team. Even if he emerges, it's a two back rotation at best. Maybe a very late sleeper at best.
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On August 17 2010 05:50 Southlight wrote:
Hrmz, in top 2 rounds, and bearing in mind that the only fantasy league I partake in is keeper (which affects my judgment of players)
2005:
Good: Ronnie Brown, Cadillac, special mention to Gore (Brown and Gore still chugging)
Bad: Benson, JJ Arrington, Eric Shelton (Benson with a late-career comeback)
2006:
Good: Maroney, Addai, MJD (Maroney and Addai died in terms of keeper)
Bad: Reggie Bush, Napoleon Williams, LenWhale (only Napoleon's still chugging)
2007:
Good: All Day, Marshawn (Marshawn is borderline atm)
Bad: Kenny Irons, Chris Henry, Brandon Jackson (...)
2008:
Good: Jon Stewart, CJ, Matt Forte (all studs, except for maybe Forte)
Bad: DMac, Felix Jones, Mendenhall, Ray Rice (Mendenhall and Rice rebounded)
2009:
Good: Knowshon (arguably)
Bad: DBrown, Beanie, McCoy, special mention to Greene
You have like a 50% chance of hitting on a rookie year RB's production, and when it comes to prolonged career success it gets even worse. So I guess my "amazingly rare" impression comes from all these RBs falling off the map, but eh.
From my perspective "sleeper RB picks" tend to be tail-end RBs like Knowshon (2nd round pick in 5-man keeper) and Ray Rice's second year (first-round pick) and Leron McClain (2nd round pick). But I guess because of Spiller's status as a 3rd RB he might fall more.
*shrugs*
Keeper toooootally changes the game and you're definitely right in that regard.
Also, what statistical barometer are you using for good?? Beanie Wells: 793 49.6 4.5 7 is not too shabby if you're doing a late pick in a standard. I dunno about good, but certainly not bad. Same thing with Reggie Bush: That rookie year was amazing if you were in a PPR/Returns league. Though I guess the hype tempers that a bit. I distinctly remember seeing morons taking him in the top two rounds.
I guess expectations shape draft order, so that has to figure in.
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On August 17 2010 06:18 Hawk wrote:
I guess expectations shape draft order, so that has to figure in.
True.
The league I'm in runs a pretty standard setup, not PPR and whatnot (just adjusted points/yards) - I believe Bush didn't even start on the team that drafted him and neither did Knowshon. To that end both of them were clearly busts - Bush began starting the second year but that team started getting destroyed by injuries and such, so that's more a case of no-one-else-to-turn-to (pretty funny he got kept though).
I guess if you can grab Spiller late it's fine, but I have the impression of teams stockpiling RBs "to be safe" so it's rare to find any RB with potential slip into mid-late.
And yeah, not quite as bad as WRs, but... I dunno, I'm just weary of rookie players in general I guess.
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Yeah the only time I ever go after rookies is if vets at that spot are gone. Never understood the concept of taking a rookie anywhere in the top 5 rounds. Most leagues are 1QB, and I'm sure there's at least 15 better options than a rookie, even if said rookie is gauranteed to start. WR rookies should never go that early since there's just so many damn WRs.
RBs are the only thing that make any sense, just because so many teams run tandems. Like if you were faced with taking a 1B Rb averaging 10-12 carries a game vs a rookie like Kevin Smith, who was assured of being the starter in Detroit by sheer virtue of everyone else being terrible. That's the one area where I think it's worth pondering.
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I have high hopes for the Jets this year, although I am well aware that high expectations are Jets fans' nemesis. However, if we can settle with Revis and get him back on the field and keep the team healthy, I don't know who in their right mind would want to try and throw the ball into the green-and-white secondary. If Sanchez can just avoid making a gazillion mistakes, the Jets could impress.
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Ewwww Westbrook signed with the Whiners, though they needed help with a backup RB since Coffee retired.
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On August 16 2010 13:53 eshlow wrote:
Redskins baby. Maybe we'll finally get out of the NFC East cellar... actually hell yeah we will!
Though we'll see how good we are for a quarter or so against a good D and O this week in the Ravens...
LOL NO
Eagles got rid of him for a reason
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51509 Posts
anyone watching the mnf game? awesome catch from the random giants wr.
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On August 17 2010 05:50 Southlight wrote:
Hrmz, in top 2 rounds, and bearing in mind that the only fantasy league I partake in is keeper (which affects my judgment of players)
2005:
Good: Ronnie Brown, Cadillac, special mention to Gore (Brown and Gore still chugging)
Bad: Benson, JJ Arrington, Eric Shelton (Benson with a late-career comeback)
2006:
Good: Maroney, Addai, MJD (Maroney and Addai died in terms of keeper)
Bad: Reggie Bush, Napoleon Williams, LenWhale (only Napoleon's still chugging)
2007:
Good: All Day, Marshawn (Marshawn is borderline atm)
Bad: Kenny Irons, Chris Henry, Brandon Jackson (...)
2008:
Good: Jon Stewart, CJ, Matt Forte (all studs, except for maybe Forte)
Bad: DMac, Felix Jones, Mendenhall, Ray Rice (Mendenhall and Rice rebounded)
2009:
Good: Knowshon (arguably)
Bad: DBrown, Beanie, McCoy, special mention to Greene
You have like a 50% chance of hitting on a rookie year RB's production, and when it comes to prolonged career success it gets even worse. So I guess my "amazingly rare" impression comes from all these RBs falling off the map, but eh.
From my perspective "sleeper RB picks" tend to be tail-end RBs like Knowshon (2nd round pick in 5-man keeper) and Ray Rice's second year (first-round pick) and Leron McClain (2nd round pick). But I guess because of Spiller's status as a 3rd RB he might fall more.
*shrugs*
Beanie came on mid-season and fell off. He wasn't really "bad," but he wasn't really "good" either. If you had him in weeks like 4-9 he was a solid player for you. Mareno was a major disappointment all year long almost. Greene came on strong at the end of the year, I think he's in a similar spot to Beanie.
I agree with everyone else saying people would have to be really dumb to think McCoy was going to be a stud. Assume D Brown is Donald Brown... I don't even know what team he plays for, but I remember thinking that he wasn't going to do shit.
'08 you forgot Slaton, who was a STUD. He and Forte carried my team in '08. And I think Forte will rebound this year. It's hard to be good when you have three defenders hitting you four yards behind the line on almost every snap.
On August 17 2010 08:42 Illusion. wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2010 13:53 eshlow wrote:
Redskins baby. Maybe we'll finally get out of the NFC East cellar... actually hell yeah we will!
Though we'll see how good we are for a quarter or so against a good D and O this week in the Ravens... LOL NO Eagles got rid of him for a reason
Yeah, they're fucking dumb. That's like saying "The Broncos got rid of Cutler, and Marshall for a reason." Just because a team lets a player go doesn't make it a good decision.
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Watch out for the falcons this year man. And we should definitely have a TL fantasy league
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On August 17 2010 11:17 GTR wrote:
anyone watching the mnf game? awesome catch from the random giants wr.
Yeah that was a great catch, and he had two more after that "Giants Cruz to victory" tomorrows headline calling it now. either way GO Giants lets hope for a better season and fewer injuries.
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On August 17 2010 11:40 SweeTLemonS[TPR] wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2010 05:50 Southlight wrote:
Hrmz, in top 2 rounds, and bearing in mind that the only fantasy league I partake in is keeper (which affects my judgment of players)
2005:
Good: Ronnie Brown, Cadillac, special mention to Gore (Brown and Gore still chugging)
Bad: Benson, JJ Arrington, Eric Shelton (Benson with a late-career comeback)
2006:
Good: Maroney, Addai, MJD (Maroney and Addai died in terms of keeper)
Bad: Reggie Bush, Napoleon Williams, LenWhale (only Napoleon's still chugging)
2007:
Good: All Day, Marshawn (Marshawn is borderline atm)
Bad: Kenny Irons, Chris Henry, Brandon Jackson (...)
2008:
Good: Jon Stewart, CJ, Matt Forte (all studs, except for maybe Forte)
Bad: DMac, Felix Jones, Mendenhall, Ray Rice (Mendenhall and Rice rebounded)
2009:
Good: Knowshon (arguably)
Bad: DBrown, Beanie, McCoy, special mention to Greene
You have like a 50% chance of hitting on a rookie year RB's production, and when it comes to prolonged career success it gets even worse. So I guess my "amazingly rare" impression comes from all these RBs falling off the map, but eh.
From my perspective "sleeper RB picks" tend to be tail-end RBs like Knowshon (2nd round pick in 5-man keeper) and Ray Rice's second year (first-round pick) and Leron McClain (2nd round pick). But I guess because of Spiller's status as a 3rd RB he might fall more.
*shrugs* Beanie came on mid-season and fell off. He wasn't really "bad," but he wasn't really "good" either. If you had him in weeks like 4-9 he was a solid player for you. Mareno was a major disappointment all year long almost. Greene came on strong at the end of the year, I think he's in a similar spot to Beanie. I agree with everyone else saying people would have to be really dumb to think McCoy was going to be a stud. Assume D Brown is Donald Brown... I don't even know what team he plays for, but I remember thinking that he wasn't going to do shit. '08 you forgot Slaton, who was a STUD. He and Forte carried my team in '08. And I think Forte will rebound this year. It's hard to be good when you have three defenders hitting you four yards behind the line on almost every snap. Show nested quote +On August 17 2010 08:42 Illusion. wrote:On August 16 2010 13:53 eshlow wrote:
Redskins baby. Maybe we'll finally get out of the NFC East cellar... actually hell yeah we will!
Though we'll see how good we are for a quarter or so against a good D and O this week in the Ravens... LOL NO Eagles got rid of him for a reason Yeah, they're fucking dumb. That's like saying "The Broncos got rid of Cutler, and Marshall for a reason." Just because a team lets a player go doesn't make it a good decision.
between concussions, wear and tear, and just being a small back, westbrook is a shell of the player he once was
why do you think it took until august for someone to sign him? He's never played 16 games in a season, plus he's 31, so few running backs last until they're 30, he's not going to do much this season. we'll see how much they expect from him...
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Eli Manning's forehead exploded tonight lol
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On August 17 2010 11:40 SweeTLemonS[TPR] wrote:
'08 you forgot Slaton, who was a STUD.
I took only the top two rounds, because I felt that was the most reliable barometer of RB success and the most telling for how people a rookie RB will perform (because let's be honest, most people don't expect anything out of a 3rd+ round player).
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On August 17 2010 08:42 Illusion. wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2010 13:53 eshlow wrote:
Redskins baby. Maybe we'll finally get out of the NFC East cellar... actually hell yeah we will!
Though we'll see how good we are for a quarter or so against a good D and O this week in the Ravens... LOL NO Eagles got rid of him for a reason
Because the Eagles have one of the most inept front offices in the league??
They had a guy who was a top10 quarterback or better every year in the league and they supplied him with passing weapons exactly twice in his career. The dude even gets blamed for the fucking defense shitting the bed in the SB because he couldnt dig them out of a hole for the umpteenth guy.
Philly totally deserves the incoming 6-10 season. For the first time ever, I'm actively going to be rooting for McNabb to curbstomp the shit out of the redskins.
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On August 17 2010 13:07 KOFgokuon wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2010 11:40 SweeTLemonS[TPR] wrote:On August 17 2010 05:50 Southlight wrote:
Hrmz, in top 2 rounds, and bearing in mind that the only fantasy league I partake in is keeper (which affects my judgment of players)
2005:
Good: Ronnie Brown, Cadillac, special mention to Gore (Brown and Gore still chugging)
Bad: Benson, JJ Arrington, Eric Shelton (Benson with a late-career comeback)
2006:
Good: Maroney, Addai, MJD (Maroney and Addai died in terms of keeper)
Bad: Reggie Bush, Napoleon Williams, LenWhale (only Napoleon's still chugging)
2007:
Good: All Day, Marshawn (Marshawn is borderline atm)
Bad: Kenny Irons, Chris Henry, Brandon Jackson (...)
2008:
Good: Jon Stewart, CJ, Matt Forte (all studs, except for maybe Forte)
Bad: DMac, Felix Jones, Mendenhall, Ray Rice (Mendenhall and Rice rebounded)
2009:
Good: Knowshon (arguably)
Bad: DBrown, Beanie, McCoy, special mention to Greene
You have like a 50% chance of hitting on a rookie year RB's production, and when it comes to prolonged career success it gets even worse. So I guess my "amazingly rare" impression comes from all these RBs falling off the map, but eh.
From my perspective "sleeper RB picks" tend to be tail-end RBs like Knowshon (2nd round pick in 5-man keeper) and Ray Rice's second year (first-round pick) and Leron McClain (2nd round pick). But I guess because of Spiller's status as a 3rd RB he might fall more.
*shrugs* Beanie came on mid-season and fell off. He wasn't really "bad," but he wasn't really "good" either. If you had him in weeks like 4-9 he was a solid player for you. Mareno was a major disappointment all year long almost. Greene came on strong at the end of the year, I think he's in a similar spot to Beanie. I agree with everyone else saying people would have to be really dumb to think McCoy was going to be a stud. Assume D Brown is Donald Brown... I don't even know what team he plays for, but I remember thinking that he wasn't going to do shit. '08 you forgot Slaton, who was a STUD. He and Forte carried my team in '08. And I think Forte will rebound this year. It's hard to be good when you have three defenders hitting you four yards behind the line on almost every snap. On August 17 2010 08:42 Illusion. wrote:On August 16 2010 13:53 eshlow wrote:
Redskins baby. Maybe we'll finally get out of the NFC East cellar... actually hell yeah we will!
Though we'll see how good we are for a quarter or so against a good D and O this week in the Ravens... LOL NO Eagles got rid of him for a reason Yeah, they're fucking dumb. That's like saying "The Broncos got rid of Cutler, and Marshall for a reason." Just because a team lets a player go doesn't make it a good decision. between concussions, wear and tear, and just being a small back, westbrook is a shell of the player he once was why do you think it took until august for someone to sign him? He's never played 16 games in a season, plus he's 31, so few running backs last until they're 30, he's not going to do much this season. we'll see how much they expect from him...
We were talking about McNabb...... not Westbrook
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EPT
