EPTNFL Season 2010 - Page 13
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tonight
United States11130 Posts
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DannyJ
United States5110 Posts
Yeah Charles did drop alot in leagues. I think people are scared of Thomas Jones stealing lots of goalline looks. He's still definitely a good pickup though... | ||
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maggieq
1 Post
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zer0das
United States8519 Posts
1. Chris Johnson 20. Jamaal Charles 21. Shonn Greene 40. Larry Fitzgerald 41. Greg Jennings Fitz and Jennings were still around in the deep 4th round? That's pretty nuts, even in a ten team league. Considering Jennings is generally the 9th WR off the board... | ||
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SweeTLemonS[TPR]
11739 Posts
On September 08 2010 21:58 zer0das wrote: Even so, in my league Fitz, Charles, and Greene were all second round picks (not that I would draft Fitz there). So we're looking at something like: 1. Chris Johnson 20. Jamaal Charles 21. Shonn Greene 40. Larry Fitzgerald 41. Greg Jennings Fitz and Jennings were still around in the deep 4rd round? That's pretty nuts, even in a ten team league. Considering Jennings is generally the 9th WR off the board... I'm amazed you guys had enough rounds to get to the 4rd! On September 08 2010 11:47 DannyJ wrote: Lots of QBs taken in first round!? This is lunacy!!! Although i guess getting rodgers or Brees if you are a late pick isn't that nuts at all. Yeah Charles did drop alot in leagues. I think people are scared of Thomas Jones stealing lots of goalline looks. He's still definitely a good pickup though... I love how many people are stuck in 2002 when picking a HB first was the right idea, because teams actually had dedicated backs, and the NFL hadn't quite become a pass-first game. Depending on your scoring system (and who's available), picking a QB is the absolute best option. For the past four years, at least, QB's pretty much fill out the top 10 scorers in my league. There's a bit more depth at QB throughout the league than there is HB, so if you have a shot at the top 4 HB's you have to take them. So, if you have a shot at Rodgers, Peyton, Brady, in the first round (and you're not one of the first 4 picks, because there are only four backs worth taking before them), then one of those guys is the right option (Schaub, Eli, Rivers, Favre, and a couple others can put up massive amounts of points, but shouldn't be taken in the first). If you can get CJ, AP, MJD, or Rice then take them over a QB, because your backfield needs it, and no one in the league puts up numbers week after week like those guys did last year, but after that, I think QB's have to go, then it's back to the tier 2 HB's, then tier 1 WR's, then tier 2 QB's. That is especially true, imo, picking from the #1 position. The best idea I've seen picking from there (unless you're in zer0das's league, apparently), is grabbing #1 HB, #1 WR (assuming he falls to you), top end QB, BPA. | ||
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QuanticHawk
United States32105 Posts
The first four picks are always RBs, no questions asked. If anyone says otherwise, they are an idiot. This stands true even in PPRs, unless you have some really, really crazy stats. You can even go beyond that really (there's maybe 6 backs that fall in the elite territory, as in they will see the most carries on the squad and actually do shit with those carries) but after 4, you often start getting value from QB more... After that, it depends on a number of things, more or less in this order: Scoring system and positions used (If it's 2qb league, QB-QB is best), who is left on the board, who you view as the positional elites and what # pick you are.... For my RBs, I prioritize based on touches, individual skill, team line/rushing skill, overall team skill. (I'd go AP over CJ in most drafts). AP, CJ, MJD, Rice, Gore, Turner is a solid elite top 6. Each will easily break 275 touches, each is the focus of the offense and all except maybe CJ have teams quality enough teams to not invite 8 in the box all day. Fringe guys who can land in top dog status include Benson, Grant, Mendenhall and Steven Jackson. I can understand Jackson being on a terrible team losing ground, but I cannot understand how guys like Benson and Grant have slipped so far. I don't think RBs going from 1-6 is that crazy. Look at how many touches your QB will get during the season. The top 15 in the league will also get between 550-500 or so. The bottom 15 are anywhere from low 500s to high 400s. Much less drastic drop than RB. How's the #15 best RB in the league look as a starter on your team?? Go RB early and get someone like TBen, Mcnabb, Ryan, Palmer and Flacco as your starter. Or, snag a good QB early and worry about Compared with Ronnie Brown, Hightower, Maroney, Wells and M. Barber. (Guys near #15 ranked RB.) IMO, there's maybe 3 QBS worth considering that early, but I'd generally prefer a good QB and two backs that I know will bust 300 touches vs a stud QB and the dreaded Beanie Wells-Marion Barber tandem. What I really don't get is all the morons who take a WR super early. Those are only worth it if you're 10 or later. There's about 6-7 feature backs per year and maybe 3-5 stud QBs. I don't see how you can pick a guy who is elite but gets at max... 100 touches and 10 td or so over a RB with 300+ touches or a QB who approaches 400. | ||
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SweeTLemonS[TPR]
11739 Posts
It's funny to me that so many people are stuck in that draft system like DannyJ apparently is. Then their team ends up sucking nuts, and they can't figure out why. They're so stuck in draft approaches that they can't look at the bigger picture. The only time I can see picking a WR earlier than 10 is if you're in a PPR league and you want AJ, or something, maybe you reach at 9. Even so, I have to imagine there are better options out there for you. That said, WR is a position much like HB where there is a massive drop off in terms of quality. I think it's a bigger drop off than HB, really. So, some people think a tier 2 HB is worth more than a tier 1 WR, and I do not agree with that thought process at all. But, a tier 1 HB is undoubtedly worth more than a tier 1 WR, even in PPR, and so on. | ||
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zer0das
United States8519 Posts
Also, Jamaal Charles had Chris Johnson like numbers last year (in fact, his yard per carry was higher) when they actually gave him the ball. Why would Thomas Jones stop him from doing that? He had the best line in the league and still did terrible against good opponents, and now he's going to be fine with a terrible line? I'm not buying it- Charles has the talent to overcome his team, Jones doesn't. It's really that simple. Even if all Charles does is match his numbers last year (which was done on 190 carries), he's still be worth it- and he didn't get the ball consistently until week 9 last year. Sure, Jones will vulture some touchdowns and take some carries, but the Chiefs would be nuts to not give Charles 250+ carries. 2nd round might be too early- anything beyond the 3rd is nuts. Thomas Jones will have more value than people will think, but he's not going to be that big of a factor. | ||
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SweeTLemonS[TPR]
11739 Posts
Also, could you explain what you mean by "value over replacement?" Or just tell me if I'm right. I'm thinking that you mean basically what I say when I say BPA (best player available, if someone is having a hard time figuring that out... I always have to google acronyms), but I'm not sure if you're trying to quantify that in some way. EDIT: I finally realized what you meant, so never mind. If you're meaning basically that, I think that the general trend has changed over the past four years or so (pretty much since I started playing FF), making it less likely that HB is the BPA after the top four. The more pass oriented offenses become, the more value QB's are gaining. I'm sticking to what Hawk and I were saying about 5-7 elite HB's, and 3-5 elite QB's (I think there are only really three QB's that are worth being called elite, and the third is falling in my eyes, but maybe he'll bounce back this season). | ||
BroOd
Austin10833 Posts
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QuanticHawk
United States32105 Posts
On September 09 2010 02:45 BroOd wrote: I actually opened the TL draft with WR-QB-WR from the 9 spot, with Moss/Brees/Jennings. Probably the first time ever that I haven't gotten a RB before RD4. That might be the only spot I'd toy with it, but I'd imagine your rbs are pretty meh  And Jones definitely didn't just beat up shit opponents. Hung 100 on NE and Indy. Several other games where he certainly did good but not great against playoff opponents. He's not great or anything, but the Chiefs are paying him something like $5m and he's obviously got skill, he will get at least 100+ carries to Charles' 200 or so. I'd imagine the Jets do the same with LT and Green actually (I've actually been high on LT as a later pick now, good line and he looks sharp with less work) | ||
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SweeTLemonS[TPR]
11739 Posts
On September 09 2010 02:51 Hawk wrote: That might be the only spot I'd toy with it, but I'd imagine your rbs are pretty meh And Jones definitely didn't just beat up shit opponents. Hung 100 on NE and Indy. Several other games where he certainly did good but not great against playoff opponents. He's not great or anything, but the Chiefs are paying him something like $5m and he's obviously got skill, he will get at least 100+ carries to Charles' 200 or so. I'd imagine the Jets do the same with LT and Green actually (I've actually been high on LT as a later pick now, good line and he looks sharp with less work) Actually... if you look back at his game logs, zer0das is pretty much right on. http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/gamelog?playerId=2138&sYear=2009 2 NE W 16-9 14 54 3.9 10 0 1 -1 -1.0 -1 0 0 0 3 TEN W 24-17 14 20 1.4 5 0 1 2 2.0 2 0 0 0 4 @NO L 24-10 13 48 3.7 15 1 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 5 @MIA L 31-27 13 42 3.2 8 2 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 And I realize that's a bit difficult to read, but he DID score 2 TD's vs Miami, but 2 RZ TD's are a good fantasy game, but not really a good game IRL. In other words, it's great for the stat line, but it wasn't a great performance. He did come back against Miami in Week 8 though, and you already cited the NE game. 8 MIA L 30-25 27 102 3.8 11 0 1 28 28.0 28 0 0 0 | ||
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Pobearo
United States351 Posts
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SweeTLemonS[TPR]
11739 Posts
With the moves that have been made on that team since Millen left, I don't think it's a stretch to say they might be a playoff contender within the next three years. I really doubt it this year, but if they add a few pieces next year they could battle for a WC, a couple more pieces two years from now, and they're in the playoffs. I'm really impressed with the way this turnaround is being handled. Almost as much as I was impressed when Parcells took over for the Phins. Though I think that Detroit's turnaround will be more sustainable when it happens. (It makes me sad when I refresh the Sports & Games page and I was the last one to reply here after a couple of hours) | ||
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DannyJ
United States5110 Posts
I love how many people are stuck in 2002 when picking a HB first was the right idea, because teams actually had dedicated backs, and the NFL hadn't quite become a pass-first game. Depending on your scoring system (and who's available), picking a QB is the absolute best option. For the past four years, at least, QB's pretty much fill out the top 10 scorers in my league. There's a bit more depth at QB throughout the league than there is HB, so if you have a shot at the top 4 HB's you have to take them. So, if you have a shot at Rodgers, Peyton, Brady, in the first round (and you're not one of the first 4 picks, because there are only four backs worth taking before them), then one of those guys is the right option (Schaub, Eli, Rivers, Favre, and a couple others can put up massive amounts of points, but shouldn't be taken in the first). If you can get CJ, AP, MJD, or Rice then take them over a QB, because your backfield needs it, and no one in the league puts up numbers week after week like those guys did last year, but after that, I think QB's have to go, then it's back to the tier 2 HB's, then tier 1 WR's, then tier 2 QB's. That is especially true, imo, picking from the #1 position. The best idea I've seen picking from there (unless you're in zer0das's league, apparently), is grabbing #1 HB, #1 WR (assuming he falls to you), top end QB, BPA. Saying "lots" of QBs went in a first round means the people in the league were dumb, you can't argue that. Getting brady or manning first round is nothing but stupid. MAYBE Rodgers, I'd take since he rushes so much, or Brees perha[s but there is no way I'd skip a good RB or a tier 1 WR for any other QB first round. If you take out rodgers freakish year last yera, the difference between like the top 7 or 8 QBs points wise was less than the difference between the other positions. You can get a good QB later at much better value who will still do well for you. | ||
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tonight
United States11130 Posts
First(me): Chris Johnson Second: Aaron Rogers Third: Maurice Jones-Drew Fourth: AP Fifth: Ray Rice Sixth: Drew Brees Seventh: Peyton Eighth: Frank Gore Ninth: Stephen Jackson Tenth: Tom Brady I guess it was less QBs than I actually though, but still a lot for round one. I got Jamal Charles in the 7th round. my 3rd and 4th rounds went Fitz then Jennings at WR. I gave the dude that took Rogers over AP a really hard time. | ||
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SweeTLemonS[TPR]
11739 Posts
On September 09 2010 05:25 DannyJ wrote: Saying "lots" of QBs went in a first round means the people in the league were dumb, you can't argue that. Getting brady or manning first round is nothing but stupid. MAYBE Rodgers, I'd take since he rushes so much, or Brees perha[s but there is no way I'd skip a good RB or a tier 1 WR for any other QB first round. If you take out rodgers freakish year last yera, the difference between like the top 7 or 8 QBs points wise was less than the difference between the other positions. You can get a good QB later at much better value who will still do well for you. I can argue that, actually (depending on how you define lots). There were three QB's chosen in the first round in my league last year. Rodgers (at #4, which was too high), Peyton, Brees (at #3! Third highest scoring team in the league though, can't argue with those results). Top scorers in that league went as follows: Rodgers 425 Brees 386 P Manning 375 Favre 370 Schaub 364 Brady 356 Romo 354 Rivers 348 CJ 346 Ben 341 Eli 303 McNabb 295 Cutler293 Warner 284 Orton 277 Campbell 269 AP 269 Flacco 264 Palmer 262 MJD 260 Garrard 258 Matt Ryan 238 Ray Rice 237 Thomas Jones 229 AJ 224 Gore 222 Ricky Williams was the 30th Player SJax (the only other first rd HB) was #43 with 188 JStew (a mid round pick last season) was 48 with 184 points Firstly, AP's numbers are more realistic for a HB yearly. CJ's were inflated because of a stellar year, one that will not be matched for a very long time (most likely). Secondly, I'll concede this league is heavy toward QB, but if you don't have a shot at one of the top three backs in that league, you're crazy to take one when you have the top three QB's available to you still. After the top three QB's it becomes more inconsistent (and I don't believe Rodgers actually belongs in this conversation until he has sustained success). But you KNOW that Peyton, Brees, and Brady will produce, barring injury. After SJax is where more HB's start appearing. Charles is next, followed by Addai, and so on. Granted, I think our league rules are awful, and I've already decided that I'm not rejoining next year... the argument can CLEARLY be made in favor of QB first drafting in this case (assuming you don't get a top tier HB). The opposite argument can be made that you can wait on your QB because of this, and I never said you can't... my argument is, and always will be, that drafting an elite QB at the middle of the first round is not necessarily a bad idea. So if my options are draft AP now or draft SJax later, I take AP, the same goes for MJD and CJ, and maybe one or two others. then I take a HB, because the point drop off is so great. But if my options are "the top tier HB's are gone, and top tier QB's are left... Take a top tier QB (likely the top scorer in the league this year, or two or three" or take SJax, I take the QB. That's around pick six, and the argument can be made for the next three picks, at least. (Like zer0das said, value over replacement). To further back this up, most of my games were lost by the inconsistent play of my QB's (Favre and Warner) last year. The final numbers aren't exactly the best to judge by since single weeks can make a poor season look mediocre, etc. Scoring only 17-22 ppg with my QB's when the teams I played were regularly getting 30+ out of their QB's ruined my season... and I had AP, AJ, and Dallas Clark last year (starting at week 7 Roddy White with Shiancoe and Winslow rotating at TE). I rotated Beanie, PTBruiser, Barber, and Knowshon at second HB (pretty successful with that). My team was completely fucking stacked and I was one and done in the playoffs. I finished the season 9-5 as the second highest scoring team in the league (1621 points including playoffs). I finished with an identical record (and second highest scoring team) the previous year picking Peyton Manning at #5. Then you're looking at maybe taking a WR, because that's a really volatile position, save for maybe five guys. Granted, there will always be someone that blows up that no one ever saw coming (DeSean Jackson and Miles Austin... no one saw that kind of year coming for either player). It's a tough call to make, but I strongly disagree with the wording you chose. I'll also concede that, save for a couple, the people in this league are not good players. And maybe in a better league your sleeper picks are more well known, but there is usually some hidden talent at HB left in the 5-6th round. | ||
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tonight
United States11130 Posts
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Ferrose
United States11378 Posts
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GTR
51514 Posts
On September 09 2010 05:46 tonight wrote: I'll just tell you how the first round went First(me): Chris Johnson Second: Aaron Rogers Third: Maurice Jones-Drew Fourth: AP Fifth: Ray Rice Sixth: Drew Brees Seventh: Peyton Eighth: Frank Gore Ninth: Stephen Jackson Tenth: Tom Brady I guess it was less QBs than I actually though, but still a lot for round one. I got Jamal Charles in the 7th round. my 3rd and 4th rounds went Fitz then Jennings at WR. I gave the dude that took Rogers over AP a really hard time. MJD over AP too? ;d | ||
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