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[TI4] Phase 1 - Wild Card - Page 150

Forum Index > Dota 2 Tournaments
Post a Reply
Prev 1 148 149 150 151 152 210 Next
KOFgokuon
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
United States14899 Posts
July 08 2014 20:12 GMT
#2981
whatiship and ryuu
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54784 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-07-08 20:12:55
July 08 2014 20:12 GMT
#2982
On July 09 2014 05:10 opterown wrote:
Poll: Recommend CIS vs. Liquid Game 2?

Yes (10)
 
45%

If you have time (2)
 
9%

No (10)
 
45%

22 total votes

Your vote: Recommend CIS vs. Liquid Game 2?

(Vote): Yes
(Vote): If you have time
(Vote): No


Poll: Recommend CIS vs. Liquid Game 3?

Yes (16)
 
67%

If you have time (5)
 
21%

No (3)
 
13%

24 total votes

Your vote: Recommend CIS vs. Liquid Game 3?

(Vote): Yes
(Vote): If you have time
(Vote): No




On July 09 2014 05:12 opterown wrote:
Poll: Head?

Team Liquid (11)
 
73%

MVP Phoenix (4)
 
27%

15 total votes

Your vote: Head?

(Vote): MVP Phoenix
(Vote): Team Liquid


Poll: Heart?

Team Liquid (9)
 
56%

MVP Phoenix (7)
 
44%

16 total votes

Your vote: Heart?

(Vote): MVP Phoenix
(Vote): Team Liquid


ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
lprk
Profile Joined September 2013
Poland2249 Posts
July 08 2014 20:12 GMT
#2983
On July 09 2014 05:10 jntkflow wrote:
CIS played that slow-shit trash 4p1 style that clueless nerds were praising as "perfect, disciplined play".

In reality, they were just another tier2 team that could not find themselves a real style. Well played by Liquid in taking out the representatives of an vastly overrated region.

The representatives of "vastly overrated" region that was in final of every global tournament since TI3? And thos representatives haven't trained for over 40 days.
zzdd
Profile Joined December 2010
United States484 Posts
July 08 2014 20:13 GMT
#2984
On July 09 2014 05:05 BurningSera wrote:
why is demon name changed to pegasus anyway??? and seriously this is so disheartening to see cis go out like that, this is not the same cis back in qual. what a huge disappointment (rather than an upset, they played like shit).

He changed because he didn't want to get confused with demons
crunchbite
Profile Joined March 2011
Australia70 Posts
July 08 2014 20:13 GMT
#2985
On July 09 2014 05:10 trifecta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2014 05:09 Vallelol wrote:
SO disappointed with the production quality so far


TI4 still in beta. never forget


The big production stuff will appear during the main event event, it's usually really fucking boss then.
Provilicious
Profile Joined October 2013
Germany232 Posts
July 08 2014 20:13 GMT
#2986
go liquid! beat the korean overlords! :D
Don´t lose your Way!
Valhalla44
Profile Joined May 2010
Bosnia-Herzegovina983 Posts
July 08 2014 20:13 GMT
#2987
On July 09 2014 05:12 lprk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2014 05:10 jntkflow wrote:
CIS played that slow-shit trash 4p1 style that clueless nerds were praising as "perfect, disciplined play".

In reality, they were just another tier2 team that could not find themselves a real style. Well played by Liquid in taking out the representatives of an vastly overrated region.

The representatives of "vastly overrated" region that was in final of every global tournament since TI3? And thos representatives haven't trained for over 40 days.


Its probally azarkon, he's known on gosugamers like a big "china fanboy".
Kashll
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States1117 Posts
July 08 2014 20:13 GMT
#2988
Wow that was one-sided. Go Liquid I guess. Kinda wish CIS would've put up more of a fight though.

So excited for MVP vs Liquid finals.
"After silence, that which comes nearest to expressing the inexpressible is music." - Aldous Huxley
tree.hugger
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
July 08 2014 20:13 GMT
#2989
Now THAT's what I wanted to see!
ModeratorEffOrt, Snow, GuMiho, and Team Liquid
stuchiu
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Fiddler's Green42661 Posts
July 08 2014 20:14 GMT
#2990
On July 09 2014 05:13 Valhalla44 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2014 05:12 lprk wrote:
On July 09 2014 05:10 jntkflow wrote:
CIS played that slow-shit trash 4p1 style that clueless nerds were praising as "perfect, disciplined play".

In reality, they were just another tier2 team that could not find themselves a real style. Well played by Liquid in taking out the representatives of an vastly overrated region.

The representatives of "vastly overrated" region that was in final of every global tournament since TI3? And thos representatives haven't trained for over 40 days.


Its probally azarkon, he's known on gosugamers like a big "china fanboy".


I thought azarkon did after the last TI?
Moderator
CosmicSpiral
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States15275 Posts
July 08 2014 20:14 GMT
#2991
Who is Azarkon and why should we care?
WriterWovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muß man schweigen.
icystorage
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
Jollibee19350 Posts
July 08 2014 20:14 GMT
#2992
On July 09 2014 05:13 tree.hugger wrote:
Now THAT's what I wanted to see!

hiiiiiiiii. i miss your posts about TL in TLPro
LiquidDota StaffAre you ready for a Miracle-? We are! The International 2017 Champions!
Drazerk
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom31255 Posts
July 08 2014 20:14 GMT
#2993
On July 09 2014 05:12 stuchiu wrote:
[image loading]

Time to bring in a ringer.


I heard Pirateterran had injuries though
FiWiFaKi
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Canada9859 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-07-08 20:14:35
July 08 2014 20:14 GMT
#2994
On July 09 2014 05:11 Count9 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2014 05:05 FiWiFaKi wrote:
On July 09 2014 05:03 Count9 wrote:
On July 09 2014 04:57 FiWiFaKi wrote:
On July 09 2014 04:56 Count9 wrote:
On July 09 2014 04:54 FiWiFaKi wrote:
Simulation for odds from: http://2p.com/7512627_1/The-International-4-Predictions-by-noxville.htm


Chance of each team being one of the “Top 10”:

DK 99.98%
iG 99.96%
Newbee 99.94%
EG 98.46%
Empire 91.67%
VG 83.99%
Alliance 79.87%
mousesports 77.62%
Arrow 57.34%
LGD 47.70%
Titan 42.75%
Fnatic 42.21%
C9 41.52%
Na'Vi 31.10%
Wildcard* 5.32%
Na'Vi.US 0.57%

That looks like a really really really awful monte carlo simulation. Weird since datdota does good work.


Honestly it looks quite good to me based on what we've seen. LGD is pretty low since they haven't been good for very long, Navi has been bad... What do you disagree with?

Only 1 mil iterations. Half of the teams have a 0.00% chance of winning in a monte carlo. 16 min runtime that was I/O bound. All of those are sketchy as hell. With monte carlo you want to run as long as you can that's reasonable. If it was a 16 min runtime I have no idea why they didn't run it way longer. Similarly, Empire > Alliance feels like their decay factor on ELO is either non-existant or really low. W/e, just stats, but I think they should've chosen a different simulation or run this one with different parameters/longer (see: the guy who ran he WCS simulation a season ago. Almost every one had a chance, no matter how small it was. That's more expected from a good simulation)


1 million iterations for a 16 man round robin is A LOT. You need more iterations when you have 10 tournaments to worry about.

And 0.00% seems reasonable for a team like Navi.US. I'd give 200/1 odds if someone wanted to be bet that Navi.US will win TI4.

It's not one team has a 0% win chance, half of the teams have a 0.00% chance. If that doesn't set off red flags for a monte carlo I don't know what will. Even with the unique bracket/pool system, that's absurd. Look at the world cup simulations, even the worse teams sometimes get 1/100 of a %, half would be simply a bad simulation. 1 mil is not a lot, it's ok. But when you have parameters that can change placings dramatically like ELO time window, ELO decay factor, and probably an arbitrary weight for all those things + head to head % you really need as many runs as you can get or just 1 mil runs with differing parameters to see which parameter favors which team. This feels like a lazy "we coded a simulation, here you go."


The fact that there are 8 teams with a 0% does seem weird, and I agree with that. I think that running more simulations wouldn't change the percentages, but I agree there might be some systematic errors, as the percentages do seem extremely low.
In life, the journey is more satisfying than the destination. || .::Entrepreneurship::. Living a few years of your life like most people won't, so that you can spend the rest of your life like most people can't || Mechanical Engineering & Economics Major
Vallelol
Profile Joined March 2011
Germany1046 Posts
July 08 2014 20:14 GMT
#2995
On July 09 2014 05:13 crunchbite wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2014 05:10 trifecta wrote:
On July 09 2014 05:09 Vallelol wrote:
SO disappointed with the production quality so far


TI4 still in beta. never forget


The big production stuff will appear during the main event event, it's usually really fucking boss then.


When you make the groupstage matter that much, you should step up the production quality for it as well
lolnoty
Profile Joined December 2005
United States7166 Posts
July 08 2014 20:14 GMT
#2996
i like liquid and all but idk how people can draw conclusions from liquid vs zero training
"PPD is a very angry guy. He controls us." - Arteezy
ahswtini
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Northern Ireland22208 Posts
July 08 2014 20:14 GMT
#2997
On July 09 2014 05:14 stuchiu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2014 05:13 Valhalla44 wrote:
On July 09 2014 05:12 lprk wrote:
On July 09 2014 05:10 jntkflow wrote:
CIS played that slow-shit trash 4p1 style that clueless nerds were praising as "perfect, disciplined play".

In reality, they were just another tier2 team that could not find themselves a real style. Well played by Liquid in taking out the representatives of an vastly overrated region.

The representatives of "vastly overrated" region that was in final of every global tournament since TI3? And thos representatives haven't trained for over 40 days.


Its probally azarkon, he's known on gosugamers like a big "china fanboy".


I thought azarkon did after the last TI?

Yes I think he got a new lease of life
"As I've said, balance isn't about strategies or counters, it's about probability and statistics." - paralleluniverse
stuchiu
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Fiddler's Green42661 Posts
July 08 2014 20:15 GMT
#2998
On July 09 2014 05:14 Drazerk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 09 2014 05:12 stuchiu wrote:
[image loading]

Time to bring in a ringer.


I heard Pirateterran had injuries though


He gave his left eye to gain all the wisdom in the world.
Moderator
Manit0u
Profile Blog Joined August 2004
Poland17378 Posts
July 08 2014 20:15 GMT
#2999
Time for Germany vs Brazil.
Time is precious. Waste it wisely.
Sn0_Man
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
Tebellong44238 Posts
July 08 2014 20:15 GMT
#3000
On July 09 2014 05:13 tree.hugger wrote:
Now THAT's what I wanted to see!

Ur a fucking treant. So fitting yet disgusting XD
LiquidDota StaffSCIENTISTS BAFFLED | 3275929302
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