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On March 25 2013 06:16 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2013 06:06 SKC wrote:On March 25 2013 05:57 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 05:56 SKC wrote:On March 25 2013 05:52 wherebugsgo wrote:yeah, I didn't take into account the butterfly. However, cranium basher doesn't use PRD and neither does entangle, unless this page is wrong: (neither does butterfly) http://www.dota2wiki.com/wiki/Pseudo-random_distribution#List_of_items_that_use_PRDwhen you account evasion the chance is lower, so: It goes from 55% chance to bash/entangle on first hit to 35.75% chance. Thus over 3 hits it goes from 91% to: 1 - (1-0.3575)^3 = 73.4% chance. Not that significant of a change, when you think about it. 3 attacks from both heroes probably would occur in about 2 seconds or less, and then the target is either entangled for the next 3 seconds, or bashed for the next 1.4. On March 25 2013 05:47 SKC wrote:
I think Bash has PRNG but Entangle doesn't. There's also the cooldown to take into account for multiple bashes, so the second bash must not come from the same sourse. It may not be that bad, but it's definatelly not that simple. yes, the second bash must not come from the same source in the 0.6 second window where the bash is cooling down but the target has not been bashed. If there's another bash from the other source (or an entangle) then it doesn't matter. If AM gets entangled he's disabled for a full 3 seconds. It's not simple, but I'm using a simple calculation to show how likely it is that AM gets bashed at least once over 3 hits from each source. That would likely happen in less than a matter of a couple of seconds given the bear and lycan's attack speeds, thanks to assault aura, ult form, etc. etc. You should still remove one of them from the second hit, since it will be on cooldown. I'm counting for ONE bash. There is no "second hit" for one bash. e: unless you mean the chance that you get bashed twice or thrice by the same source within 2 seconds or whatever, in the calculation that there's at least one. That percentage will be almost nothing, given how rare it is anyway. This is an upper bound, if I had to guess, the final answer wouldn't be off by much more than 1 or 2%. Remember the chances multiply. I mean that your 35.75% chance to bash is only relevant to the first hit. To reach permastun status, you will need another bash coming from only 2 sources, which has a lower chance of happening. Where do your 3 hits come from? If that's for the first bash, it doesn't have to be 3 hits, if it is for a following bash, the chance your be lower than it was for the first hit. 3 hits with at least one bash in there. I'm not calculating the chance the target gets permabashed. I'm not understanding your question. I basically calculated the chance that the target never gets bashed over 3 hits, and subtracted that from 1. That's a very good approximation of the chance will get bashed once in 3 hits from either source. Note AM never actually got permabashed, he just got entangled in the first fight (and got bashed while under entangle) but I'm pretty sure he died before the entangle wore off. In the second fight he got bashed 3 times, but it was impossible for him to get permabashed since it was just lycan hitting him.
From what I remembered AM didn't die during the entangle, that's why I was talking about extending an entangle with a bash. Maybe I wasn't paying that much attention, but there wouldn't be any luck envolved with him dieing in a single entangle, it's quite common for it to proc at least once in a fight. I was thinking of a following bash mostly because of the outcry from the casters.
If that's the case, you also have to take into account he wouldn't have died in a single bash, because it last for less than half the amount of time, the math would be diferent anyway. It's basically the chance he got entangle after the point where he would die in it's duration, less than that he would get away, much more than that he would have blinked out of it.
For the second fight you really can't do any math without knowing how much time and hits passed between bashes, it's useless otherwise.
All I'm saying is that I don't feel those equations really represent what happened in the game, for better or for worse. I just feel "the chance of getting a bash/entangle in 3 hits is ~75%, therefore what happened in the game was expected" is a bad way to look at it.
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of course it's not representative. The game is one discrete state, the math I did is simply probability.
Nothing happened that would suggest at all that fnatic got lucky.
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On March 25 2013 06:17 bh. wrote:
can bashes miss? I thought it works on a different table from evasion, ie overrides evasion.
Ofc it can, effect applies after actual hit.
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On March 25 2013 06:53 renfree wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2013 06:17 bh. wrote:
can bashes miss? I thought it works on a different table from evasion, ie overrides evasion. Ofc it can, effect applies after actual hit.
lol someone else already answers in a less condescending way. "ofc it can." Many games calculate bashes/stuns first so if you bash, you would never miss, and you can only miss on regular hits.
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On March 25 2013 07:10 bh. wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2013 06:53 renfree wrote:On March 25 2013 06:17 bh. wrote:
can bashes miss? I thought it works on a different table from evasion, ie overrides evasion. Ofc it can, effect applies after actual hit. lol someone else already answers in a less condescending way. "ofc it can." Many games calculate bashes/stuns first so if you bash, you would never miss, and you can only miss on regular hits.
Many, but not Dota.
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On March 25 2013 07:37 renfree wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2013 07:10 bh. wrote:On March 25 2013 06:53 renfree wrote:On March 25 2013 06:17 bh. wrote:
can bashes miss? I thought it works on a different table from evasion, ie overrides evasion. Ofc it can, effect applies after actual hit. lol someone else already answers in a less condescending way. "ofc it can." Many games calculate bashes/stuns first so if you bash, you would never miss, and you can only miss on regular hits. Many, but not Dota.
I dont get why you are posting again, when someone before you already answered the question without being a dick about it.
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On March 25 2013 06:26 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2013 06:17 bh. wrote:
can bashes miss? I thought it works on a different table from evasion, ie overrides evasion. if I'm not mistaken the bash can only proc if the attack actually hits. I can't find an official source but the forums on playdota have discussed this in several threads. Against WR for example, you can never bash her when she's under the effects of windrun. AFAIK the bash itself never procs, so it never goes on CD either.
ah Bugs, it makes me a happy DOTA newb to have you explain things. Math actually makes sense to me as opposed to all the words usually tossed back and forth between the people on the DOTA forums here.
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I love the GD production of the event, the panel, the stats, its awesome.
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On March 25 2013 10:12 Promethelax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2013 06:26 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 06:17 bh. wrote:
can bashes miss? I thought it works on a different table from evasion, ie overrides evasion. if I'm not mistaken the bash can only proc if the attack actually hits. I can't find an official source but the forums on playdota have discussed this in several threads. Against WR for example, you can never bash her when she's under the effects of windrun. AFAIK the bash itself never procs, so it never goes on CD either. ah Bugs, it makes me a happy DOTA newb to have you explain things. Math actually makes sense to me as opposed to all the words usually tossed back and forth between the people on the DOTA forums here.
haha I'm on break so if you wanna play some games PM me!
On March 25 2013 06:37 SKC wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2013 06:16 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 06:06 SKC wrote:On March 25 2013 05:57 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 05:56 SKC wrote:On March 25 2013 05:52 wherebugsgo wrote:yeah, I didn't take into account the butterfly. However, cranium basher doesn't use PRD and neither does entangle, unless this page is wrong: (neither does butterfly) http://www.dota2wiki.com/wiki/Pseudo-random_distribution#List_of_items_that_use_PRDwhen you account evasion the chance is lower, so: It goes from 55% chance to bash/entangle on first hit to 35.75% chance. Thus over 3 hits it goes from 91% to: 1 - (1-0.3575)^3 = 73.4% chance. Not that significant of a change, when you think about it. 3 attacks from both heroes probably would occur in about 2 seconds or less, and then the target is either entangled for the next 3 seconds, or bashed for the next 1.4. On March 25 2013 05:47 SKC wrote:
I think Bash has PRNG but Entangle doesn't. There's also the cooldown to take into account for multiple bashes, so the second bash must not come from the same sourse. It may not be that bad, but it's definatelly not that simple. yes, the second bash must not come from the same source in the 0.6 second window where the bash is cooling down but the target has not been bashed. If there's another bash from the other source (or an entangle) then it doesn't matter. If AM gets entangled he's disabled for a full 3 seconds. It's not simple, but I'm using a simple calculation to show how likely it is that AM gets bashed at least once over 3 hits from each source. That would likely happen in less than a matter of a couple of seconds given the bear and lycan's attack speeds, thanks to assault aura, ult form, etc. etc. You should still remove one of them from the second hit, since it will be on cooldown. I'm counting for ONE bash. There is no "second hit" for one bash. e: unless you mean the chance that you get bashed twice or thrice by the same source within 2 seconds or whatever, in the calculation that there's at least one. That percentage will be almost nothing, given how rare it is anyway. This is an upper bound, if I had to guess, the final answer wouldn't be off by much more than 1 or 2%. Remember the chances multiply. I mean that your 35.75% chance to bash is only relevant to the first hit. To reach permastun status, you will need another bash coming from only 2 sources, which has a lower chance of happening. Where do your 3 hits come from? If that's for the first bash, it doesn't have to be 3 hits, if it is for a following bash, the chance your be lower than it was for the first hit. 3 hits with at least one bash in there. I'm not calculating the chance the target gets permabashed. I'm not understanding your question. I basically calculated the chance that the target never gets bashed over 3 hits, and subtracted that from 1. That's a very good approximation of the chance will get bashed once in 3 hits from either source. Note AM never actually got permabashed, he just got entangled in the first fight (and got bashed while under entangle) but I'm pretty sure he died before the entangle wore off. In the second fight he got bashed 3 times, but it was impossible for him to get permabashed since it was just lycan hitting him. From what I remembered AM didn't die during the entangle, that's why I was talking about extending an entangle with a bash. Maybe I wasn't paying that much attention, but there wouldn't be any luck envolved with him dieing in a single entangle, it's quite common for it to proc at least once in a fight. I was thinking of a following bash mostly because of the outcry from the casters.
Watch the first fight again.
Basically AM gets entangled, then right after entangle ends, he attempts to blink. Right as he's about to finish blinking there's enough damage to kill him-there is no bash after the entangle.
I mean sure, he gets bashed during the entangle but those bashes don't do damage.
Essentially lycan and sylla together had enough DPS to kill AM in less than 3.4 seconds.
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My god that fucking throw. Just finished watching and I'm not even phased by the bashes. Loda just made a fucking stupid call popping his (useless) BKB and jumping onto KotL in Fnatic's base.
nth deserve that loss. My god. Such stupid fucking play. How many years do you need to play Dota before you learn that you shouldn't jump into a full squad when you are your team's only threat, and slow/split pushing raxes is a guaranteed win?
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On March 25 2013 13:46 garlicface wrote:
My god that fucking throw. Just finished watching and I'm not even phased by the bashes. Loda just made a fucking stupid call popping his (useless) BKB and jumping onto KotL in Fnatic's base.
nth deserve that loss. My god. Such stupid fucking play. How many years do you need to play Dota before you learn that you shouldn't jump into a full squad when you are your team's only threat, and slow/split pushing raxes is a guaranteed win?
They had good farmed NP, and AM, they could have split-pushed their way to victory, but no, they decided to engage head-on few times, even though they were losing every fight when fighting head-on and lost, and they all had 4k+ gold each.
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On March 25 2013 06:39 wherebugsgo wrote:
of course it's not representative. The game is one discrete state, the math I did is simply probability.
Nothing happened that would suggest at all that fnatic got lucky.
You can still call an outcome lucky even if it isn't improbable, especially if the alternative is very unfavorable. Though, in this case it's hard to call it luck when nth we're the ones to put the opportunity in their hands.
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Sweden647 Posts
On March 25 2013 13:16 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2013 10:12 Promethelax wrote:On March 25 2013 06:26 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 06:17 bh. wrote:
can bashes miss? I thought it works on a different table from evasion, ie overrides evasion. if I'm not mistaken the bash can only proc if the attack actually hits. I can't find an official source but the forums on playdota have discussed this in several threads. Against WR for example, you can never bash her when she's under the effects of windrun. AFAIK the bash itself never procs, so it never goes on CD either. ah Bugs, it makes me a happy DOTA newb to have you explain things. Math actually makes sense to me as opposed to all the words usually tossed back and forth between the people on the DOTA forums here. haha I'm on break so if you wanna play some games PM me! Show nested quote +On March 25 2013 06:37 SKC wrote:On March 25 2013 06:16 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 06:06 SKC wrote:On March 25 2013 05:57 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 05:56 SKC wrote:On March 25 2013 05:52 wherebugsgo wrote:yeah, I didn't take into account the butterfly. However, cranium basher doesn't use PRD and neither does entangle, unless this page is wrong: (neither does butterfly) http://www.dota2wiki.com/wiki/Pseudo-random_distribution#List_of_items_that_use_PRDwhen you account evasion the chance is lower, so: It goes from 55% chance to bash/entangle on first hit to 35.75% chance. Thus over 3 hits it goes from 91% to: 1 - (1-0.3575)^3 = 73.4% chance. Not that significant of a change, when you think about it. 3 attacks from both heroes probably would occur in about 2 seconds or less, and then the target is either entangled for the next 3 seconds, or bashed for the next 1.4. On March 25 2013 05:47 SKC wrote:
I think Bash has PRNG but Entangle doesn't. There's also the cooldown to take into account for multiple bashes, so the second bash must not come from the same sourse. It may not be that bad, but it's definatelly not that simple. yes, the second bash must not come from the same source in the 0.6 second window where the bash is cooling down but the target has not been bashed. If there's another bash from the other source (or an entangle) then it doesn't matter. If AM gets entangled he's disabled for a full 3 seconds. It's not simple, but I'm using a simple calculation to show how likely it is that AM gets bashed at least once over 3 hits from each source. That would likely happen in less than a matter of a couple of seconds given the bear and lycan's attack speeds, thanks to assault aura, ult form, etc. etc. You should still remove one of them from the second hit, since it will be on cooldown. I'm counting for ONE bash. There is no "second hit" for one bash. e: unless you mean the chance that you get bashed twice or thrice by the same source within 2 seconds or whatever, in the calculation that there's at least one. That percentage will be almost nothing, given how rare it is anyway. This is an upper bound, if I had to guess, the final answer wouldn't be off by much more than 1 or 2%. Remember the chances multiply. I mean that your 35.75% chance to bash is only relevant to the first hit. To reach permastun status, you will need another bash coming from only 2 sources, which has a lower chance of happening. Where do your 3 hits come from? If that's for the first bash, it doesn't have to be 3 hits, if it is for a following bash, the chance your be lower than it was for the first hit. 3 hits with at least one bash in there. I'm not calculating the chance the target gets permabashed. I'm not understanding your question. I basically calculated the chance that the target never gets bashed over 3 hits, and subtracted that from 1. That's a very good approximation of the chance will get bashed once in 3 hits from either source. Note AM never actually got permabashed, he just got entangled in the first fight (and got bashed while under entangle) but I'm pretty sure he died before the entangle wore off. In the second fight he got bashed 3 times, but it was impossible for him to get permabashed since it was just lycan hitting him. From what I remembered AM didn't die during the entangle, that's why I was talking about extending an entangle with a bash. Maybe I wasn't paying that much attention, but there wouldn't be any luck envolved with him dieing in a single entangle, it's quite common for it to proc at least once in a fight. I was thinking of a following bash mostly because of the outcry from the casters. Watch the first fight again. Basically AM gets entangled, then right after entangle ends, he attempts to blink. Right as he's about to finish blinking there's enough damage to kill him-there is no bash after the entangle. I mean sure, he gets bashed during the entangle but those bashes don't do damage. Essentially lycan and sylla together had enough DPS to kill AM in less than 3.4 seconds.
The first fight isn't really important since nth still had the game then, and after his buyback AM found his dd rune with which he would've killed the entire Dire team if he didn't get bashed.
Lycan and Sylla didn't attack AM together when he died, Lycan attacked him alone and got off 3 bashes in a row versus an Anti-Mage with Butterfly. AM with dd had over 600 damage (!), without the bashes Lycan was dead, without Lycan Fnatic doesn't win.
To say this game was not based on luck is just plain stupid. Yes it was an enormous throw by nth, and yes AM would've probably have lived with heart, but saying Loda should have expected to get fu**ing triple bashed by a single Lycan in that fight is really beyond me. Also, lets not forget that Prophet died without buyback, and Batrider got caught out before they could defend and the final defense itself was really weird with basically a bash/entangle to kill of every support. But yea, Loda totally threw that game by himself
It was exciting Dota, but Dota is a game of luck sometimes and Fnatic seemed to draw the longest straw this time.
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On March 25 2013 07:37 renfree wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2013 07:10 bh. wrote:On March 25 2013 06:53 renfree wrote:On March 25 2013 06:17 bh. wrote:
can bashes miss? I thought it works on a different table from evasion, ie overrides evasion. Ofc it can, effect applies after actual hit. lol someone else already answers in a less condescending way. "ofc it can." Many games calculate bashes/stuns first so if you bash, you would never miss, and you can only miss on regular hits. Many, but not Dota.
Dota calculates sniper's headshot first. If he rolls a headshot then the attack has truestrike.
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On March 25 2013 23:40 miwi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2013 13:16 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 10:12 Promethelax wrote:On March 25 2013 06:26 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 06:17 bh. wrote:
can bashes miss? I thought it works on a different table from evasion, ie overrides evasion. if I'm not mistaken the bash can only proc if the attack actually hits. I can't find an official source but the forums on playdota have discussed this in several threads. Against WR for example, you can never bash her when she's under the effects of windrun. AFAIK the bash itself never procs, so it never goes on CD either. ah Bugs, it makes me a happy DOTA newb to have you explain things. Math actually makes sense to me as opposed to all the words usually tossed back and forth between the people on the DOTA forums here. haha I'm on break so if you wanna play some games PM me! On March 25 2013 06:37 SKC wrote:On March 25 2013 06:16 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 06:06 SKC wrote:On March 25 2013 05:57 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 05:56 SKC wrote:On March 25 2013 05:52 wherebugsgo wrote:yeah, I didn't take into account the butterfly. However, cranium basher doesn't use PRD and neither does entangle, unless this page is wrong: (neither does butterfly) http://www.dota2wiki.com/wiki/Pseudo-random_distribution#List_of_items_that_use_PRDwhen you account evasion the chance is lower, so: It goes from 55% chance to bash/entangle on first hit to 35.75% chance. Thus over 3 hits it goes from 91% to: 1 - (1-0.3575)^3 = 73.4% chance. Not that significant of a change, when you think about it. 3 attacks from both heroes probably would occur in about 2 seconds or less, and then the target is either entangled for the next 3 seconds, or bashed for the next 1.4. On March 25 2013 05:47 SKC wrote:
I think Bash has PRNG but Entangle doesn't. There's also the cooldown to take into account for multiple bashes, so the second bash must not come from the same sourse. It may not be that bad, but it's definatelly not that simple. yes, the second bash must not come from the same source in the 0.6 second window where the bash is cooling down but the target has not been bashed. If there's another bash from the other source (or an entangle) then it doesn't matter. If AM gets entangled he's disabled for a full 3 seconds. It's not simple, but I'm using a simple calculation to show how likely it is that AM gets bashed at least once over 3 hits from each source. That would likely happen in less than a matter of a couple of seconds given the bear and lycan's attack speeds, thanks to assault aura, ult form, etc. etc. You should still remove one of them from the second hit, since it will be on cooldown. I'm counting for ONE bash. There is no "second hit" for one bash. e: unless you mean the chance that you get bashed twice or thrice by the same source within 2 seconds or whatever, in the calculation that there's at least one. That percentage will be almost nothing, given how rare it is anyway. This is an upper bound, if I had to guess, the final answer wouldn't be off by much more than 1 or 2%. Remember the chances multiply. I mean that your 35.75% chance to bash is only relevant to the first hit. To reach permastun status, you will need another bash coming from only 2 sources, which has a lower chance of happening. Where do your 3 hits come from? If that's for the first bash, it doesn't have to be 3 hits, if it is for a following bash, the chance your be lower than it was for the first hit. 3 hits with at least one bash in there. I'm not calculating the chance the target gets permabashed. I'm not understanding your question. I basically calculated the chance that the target never gets bashed over 3 hits, and subtracted that from 1. That's a very good approximation of the chance will get bashed once in 3 hits from either source. Note AM never actually got permabashed, he just got entangled in the first fight (and got bashed while under entangle) but I'm pretty sure he died before the entangle wore off. In the second fight he got bashed 3 times, but it was impossible for him to get permabashed since it was just lycan hitting him. From what I remembered AM didn't die during the entangle, that's why I was talking about extending an entangle with a bash. Maybe I wasn't paying that much attention, but there wouldn't be any luck envolved with him dieing in a single entangle, it's quite common for it to proc at least once in a fight. I was thinking of a following bash mostly because of the outcry from the casters. Watch the first fight again. Basically AM gets entangled, then right after entangle ends, he attempts to blink. Right as he's about to finish blinking there's enough damage to kill him-there is no bash after the entangle. I mean sure, he gets bashed during the entangle but those bashes don't do damage. Essentially lycan and sylla together had enough DPS to kill AM in less than 3.4 seconds. The first fight isn't really important since nth still had the game then, and after his buyback AM found his dd rune with which he would've killed the entire Dire team if he didn't get bashed. Lycan and Sylla didn't attack AM together when he died, Lycan attacked him alone and got off 3 bashes in a row versus an Anti-Mage with Butterfly. AM with dd had over 600 damage (!), without the bashes Lycan was dead, without Lycan Fnatic doesn't win. To say this game was not based on luck is just plain stupid. Yes it was an enormous throw by nth, and yes AM would've probably have lived with heart, but saying Loda should have expected to get fu**ing triple bashed by a single Lycan in that fight is really beyond me. Also, lets not forget that Prophet died without buyback, and Batrider got caught out before they could defend and the final defense itself was really weird with basically a bash/entangle to kill of every support. But yea, Loda totally threw that game by himself It was exciting Dota, but Dota is a game of luck sometimes and Fnatic seemed to draw the longest straw this time.
Well seeing as to how you're Swedish I detect some bias ;p However, luck is always present in every phase of the game. There were multiple situations in both g1 and 3 that could have gone fnatic's way but didn't due to 'luck'. One thing you can't deny though is that nth' and particularly loda's late game decisions in those team fights were inferior to fnatics'.
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This discussion about "luck" feels stupid to me.
There are Items and entire Heroes in this game which basically "rely" on being lucky to be really worth the purchase or pick, sometimes this feels awkward... I mean PA or CK... If your underfarmed but have luck with crits (and stuns) your still pretty decent/awesome (compared to other "underfarmed" carries), if your farmed like hell but don't crit you wonder why they are called carries ^^.
The thing is.
AM went into a fight he should never have gone in (no luck involved) and he paid horrendously for it (he took a risk, he got fucked due to randomization/luck/karma), they even "forgot" their whole gameplan of splitpushing... Game over. Must feel horrible but still, it is kinda deserved  .
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Sweden647 Posts
On March 26 2013 00:34 deroth wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2013 23:40 miwi wrote:On March 25 2013 13:16 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 10:12 Promethelax wrote:On March 25 2013 06:26 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 06:17 bh. wrote:
can bashes miss? I thought it works on a different table from evasion, ie overrides evasion. if I'm not mistaken the bash can only proc if the attack actually hits. I can't find an official source but the forums on playdota have discussed this in several threads. Against WR for example, you can never bash her when she's under the effects of windrun. AFAIK the bash itself never procs, so it never goes on CD either. ah Bugs, it makes me a happy DOTA newb to have you explain things. Math actually makes sense to me as opposed to all the words usually tossed back and forth between the people on the DOTA forums here. haha I'm on break so if you wanna play some games PM me! On March 25 2013 06:37 SKC wrote:On March 25 2013 06:16 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 06:06 SKC wrote:On March 25 2013 05:57 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 05:56 SKC wrote:On March 25 2013 05:52 wherebugsgo wrote:yeah, I didn't take into account the butterfly. However, cranium basher doesn't use PRD and neither does entangle, unless this page is wrong: (neither does butterfly) http://www.dota2wiki.com/wiki/Pseudo-random_distribution#List_of_items_that_use_PRDwhen you account evasion the chance is lower, so: It goes from 55% chance to bash/entangle on first hit to 35.75% chance. Thus over 3 hits it goes from 91% to: 1 - (1-0.3575)^3 = 73.4% chance. Not that significant of a change, when you think about it. 3 attacks from both heroes probably would occur in about 2 seconds or less, and then the target is either entangled for the next 3 seconds, or bashed for the next 1.4. On March 25 2013 05:47 SKC wrote:
I think Bash has PRNG but Entangle doesn't. There's also the cooldown to take into account for multiple bashes, so the second bash must not come from the same sourse. It may not be that bad, but it's definatelly not that simple. yes, the second bash must not come from the same source in the 0.6 second window where the bash is cooling down but the target has not been bashed. If there's another bash from the other source (or an entangle) then it doesn't matter. If AM gets entangled he's disabled for a full 3 seconds. It's not simple, but I'm using a simple calculation to show how likely it is that AM gets bashed at least once over 3 hits from each source. That would likely happen in less than a matter of a couple of seconds given the bear and lycan's attack speeds, thanks to assault aura, ult form, etc. etc. You should still remove one of them from the second hit, since it will be on cooldown. I'm counting for ONE bash. There is no "second hit" for one bash. e: unless you mean the chance that you get bashed twice or thrice by the same source within 2 seconds or whatever, in the calculation that there's at least one. That percentage will be almost nothing, given how rare it is anyway. This is an upper bound, if I had to guess, the final answer wouldn't be off by much more than 1 or 2%. Remember the chances multiply. I mean that your 35.75% chance to bash is only relevant to the first hit. To reach permastun status, you will need another bash coming from only 2 sources, which has a lower chance of happening. Where do your 3 hits come from? If that's for the first bash, it doesn't have to be 3 hits, if it is for a following bash, the chance your be lower than it was for the first hit. 3 hits with at least one bash in there. I'm not calculating the chance the target gets permabashed. I'm not understanding your question. I basically calculated the chance that the target never gets bashed over 3 hits, and subtracted that from 1. That's a very good approximation of the chance will get bashed once in 3 hits from either source. Note AM never actually got permabashed, he just got entangled in the first fight (and got bashed while under entangle) but I'm pretty sure he died before the entangle wore off. In the second fight he got bashed 3 times, but it was impossible for him to get permabashed since it was just lycan hitting him. From what I remembered AM didn't die during the entangle, that's why I was talking about extending an entangle with a bash. Maybe I wasn't paying that much attention, but there wouldn't be any luck envolved with him dieing in a single entangle, it's quite common for it to proc at least once in a fight. I was thinking of a following bash mostly because of the outcry from the casters. Watch the first fight again. Basically AM gets entangled, then right after entangle ends, he attempts to blink. Right as he's about to finish blinking there's enough damage to kill him-there is no bash after the entangle. I mean sure, he gets bashed during the entangle but those bashes don't do damage. Essentially lycan and sylla together had enough DPS to kill AM in less than 3.4 seconds. The first fight isn't really important since nth still had the game then, and after his buyback AM found his dd rune with which he would've killed the entire Dire team if he didn't get bashed. Lycan and Sylla didn't attack AM together when he died, Lycan attacked him alone and got off 3 bashes in a row versus an Anti-Mage with Butterfly. AM with dd had over 600 damage (!), without the bashes Lycan was dead, without Lycan Fnatic doesn't win. To say this game was not based on luck is just plain stupid. Yes it was an enormous throw by nth, and yes AM would've probably have lived with heart, but saying Loda should have expected to get fu**ing triple bashed by a single Lycan in that fight is really beyond me. Also, lets not forget that Prophet died without buyback, and Batrider got caught out before they could defend and the final defense itself was really weird with basically a bash/entangle to kill of every support. But yea, Loda totally threw that game by himself It was exciting Dota, but Dota is a game of luck sometimes and Fnatic seemed to draw the longest straw this time. Well seeing as to how you're Swedish I detect some bias ;p However, luck is always present in every phase of the game. There were multiple situations in both g1 and 3 that could have gone fnatic's way but didn't due to 'luck'. One thing you can't deny though is that nth' and particularly loda's late game decisions in those team fights were inferior to fnatics'.
Come with an argument instead of calling me bias, Era is Swedish too if you didn't know. So what was Fnatics team fight decisions? "Lets bash and entangle them!" yeah, that's clearly the better "decision" to make.
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Czech Republic18921 Posts
On March 26 2013 00:40 miwi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2013 00:34 deroth wrote:On March 25 2013 23:40 miwi wrote:On March 25 2013 13:16 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 10:12 Promethelax wrote:On March 25 2013 06:26 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 06:17 bh. wrote:
can bashes miss? I thought it works on a different table from evasion, ie overrides evasion. if I'm not mistaken the bash can only proc if the attack actually hits. I can't find an official source but the forums on playdota have discussed this in several threads. Against WR for example, you can never bash her when she's under the effects of windrun. AFAIK the bash itself never procs, so it never goes on CD either. ah Bugs, it makes me a happy DOTA newb to have you explain things. Math actually makes sense to me as opposed to all the words usually tossed back and forth between the people on the DOTA forums here. haha I'm on break so if you wanna play some games PM me! On March 25 2013 06:37 SKC wrote:On March 25 2013 06:16 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 06:06 SKC wrote:On March 25 2013 05:57 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 05:56 SKC wrote:On March 25 2013 05:52 wherebugsgo wrote:yeah, I didn't take into account the butterfly. However, cranium basher doesn't use PRD and neither does entangle, unless this page is wrong: (neither does butterfly) http://www.dota2wiki.com/wiki/Pseudo-random_distribution#List_of_items_that_use_PRDwhen you account evasion the chance is lower, so: It goes from 55% chance to bash/entangle on first hit to 35.75% chance. Thus over 3 hits it goes from 91% to: 1 - (1-0.3575)^3 = 73.4% chance. Not that significant of a change, when you think about it. 3 attacks from both heroes probably would occur in about 2 seconds or less, and then the target is either entangled for the next 3 seconds, or bashed for the next 1.4. [quote] yes, the second bash must not come from the same source in the 0.6 second window where the bash is cooling down but the target has not been bashed. If there's another bash from the other source (or an entangle) then it doesn't matter. If AM gets entangled he's disabled for a full 3 seconds. It's not simple, but I'm using a simple calculation to show how likely it is that AM gets bashed at least once over 3 hits from each source. That would likely happen in less than a matter of a couple of seconds given the bear and lycan's attack speeds, thanks to assault aura, ult form, etc. etc. You should still remove one of them from the second hit, since it will be on cooldown. I'm counting for ONE bash. There is no "second hit" for one bash. e: unless you mean the chance that you get bashed twice or thrice by the same source within 2 seconds or whatever, in the calculation that there's at least one. That percentage will be almost nothing, given how rare it is anyway. This is an upper bound, if I had to guess, the final answer wouldn't be off by much more than 1 or 2%. Remember the chances multiply. I mean that your 35.75% chance to bash is only relevant to the first hit. To reach permastun status, you will need another bash coming from only 2 sources, which has a lower chance of happening. Where do your 3 hits come from? If that's for the first bash, it doesn't have to be 3 hits, if it is for a following bash, the chance your be lower than it was for the first hit. 3 hits with at least one bash in there. I'm not calculating the chance the target gets permabashed. I'm not understanding your question. I basically calculated the chance that the target never gets bashed over 3 hits, and subtracted that from 1. That's a very good approximation of the chance will get bashed once in 3 hits from either source. Note AM never actually got permabashed, he just got entangled in the first fight (and got bashed while under entangle) but I'm pretty sure he died before the entangle wore off. In the second fight he got bashed 3 times, but it was impossible for him to get permabashed since it was just lycan hitting him. From what I remembered AM didn't die during the entangle, that's why I was talking about extending an entangle with a bash. Maybe I wasn't paying that much attention, but there wouldn't be any luck envolved with him dieing in a single entangle, it's quite common for it to proc at least once in a fight. I was thinking of a following bash mostly because of the outcry from the casters. Watch the first fight again. Basically AM gets entangled, then right after entangle ends, he attempts to blink. Right as he's about to finish blinking there's enough damage to kill him-there is no bash after the entangle. I mean sure, he gets bashed during the entangle but those bashes don't do damage. Essentially lycan and sylla together had enough DPS to kill AM in less than 3.4 seconds. The first fight isn't really important since nth still had the game then, and after his buyback AM found his dd rune with which he would've killed the entire Dire team if he didn't get bashed. Lycan and Sylla didn't attack AM together when he died, Lycan attacked him alone and got off 3 bashes in a row versus an Anti-Mage with Butterfly. AM with dd had over 600 damage (!), without the bashes Lycan was dead, without Lycan Fnatic doesn't win. To say this game was not based on luck is just plain stupid. Yes it was an enormous throw by nth, and yes AM would've probably have lived with heart, but saying Loda should have expected to get fu**ing triple bashed by a single Lycan in that fight is really beyond me. Also, lets not forget that Prophet died without buyback, and Batrider got caught out before they could defend and the final defense itself was really weird with basically a bash/entangle to kill of every support. But yea, Loda totally threw that game by himself It was exciting Dota, but Dota is a game of luck sometimes and Fnatic seemed to draw the longest straw this time. Well seeing as to how you're Swedish I detect some bias ;p However, luck is always present in every phase of the game. There were multiple situations in both g1 and 3 that could have gone fnatic's way but didn't due to 'luck'. One thing you can't deny though is that nth' and particularly loda's late game decisions in those team fights were inferior to fnatics'. Come with an argument instead of calling me bias, Era is Swedish too if you didn't know. So what was Fnatics team fight decisions? "Lets bash and entangle them!" yeah, that's clearly the better "decision" to make.
nth were so far ahead, that they didn't even need to get in melee range of the basher to win the game. If Loda bought back, tp'd to Fnatic's base and threaten to throne them, or take mega creeps, they would have to go back. Instead he blinks right into them and dies. The game was lost by bad decisions from nth, denying it makes you look silly.
edit: The last Loda suicide is just the last of many bad decisions by notide near the end of the game. I'm not saying Loda threw the game with that one blink, there were many similar moves from more of their players leading up to that.
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Base race vs Syllabear/Lycan is traditionally suicide, but I didn't get to watch the whole game so I won't comment too much (although I did see some of the bashes at the end... it was lulz).
I will say that I've won/lost quite a few games recently where the entire game devolved into "Who bashes through the other guy's BKB first". Those games are really really dumb, especially due to abyssal being an item.
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Sweden647 Posts
On March 26 2013 00:44 cecek wrote:Show nested quote +On March 26 2013 00:40 miwi wrote:On March 26 2013 00:34 deroth wrote:On March 25 2013 23:40 miwi wrote:On March 25 2013 13:16 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 10:12 Promethelax wrote:On March 25 2013 06:26 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 06:17 bh. wrote:
can bashes miss? I thought it works on a different table from evasion, ie overrides evasion. if I'm not mistaken the bash can only proc if the attack actually hits. I can't find an official source but the forums on playdota have discussed this in several threads. Against WR for example, you can never bash her when she's under the effects of windrun. AFAIK the bash itself never procs, so it never goes on CD either. ah Bugs, it makes me a happy DOTA newb to have you explain things. Math actually makes sense to me as opposed to all the words usually tossed back and forth between the people on the DOTA forums here. haha I'm on break so if you wanna play some games PM me! On March 25 2013 06:37 SKC wrote:On March 25 2013 06:16 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 06:06 SKC wrote:On March 25 2013 05:57 wherebugsgo wrote:On March 25 2013 05:56 SKC wrote:
[quote]
You should still remove one of them from the second hit, since it will be on cooldown. I'm counting for ONE bash. There is no "second hit" for one bash. e: unless you mean the chance that you get bashed twice or thrice by the same source within 2 seconds or whatever, in the calculation that there's at least one. That percentage will be almost nothing, given how rare it is anyway. This is an upper bound, if I had to guess, the final answer wouldn't be off by much more than 1 or 2%. Remember the chances multiply. I mean that your 35.75% chance to bash is only relevant to the first hit. To reach permastun status, you will need another bash coming from only 2 sources, which has a lower chance of happening. Where do your 3 hits come from? If that's for the first bash, it doesn't have to be 3 hits, if it is for a following bash, the chance your be lower than it was for the first hit. 3 hits with at least one bash in there. I'm not calculating the chance the target gets permabashed. I'm not understanding your question. I basically calculated the chance that the target never gets bashed over 3 hits, and subtracted that from 1. That's a very good approximation of the chance will get bashed once in 3 hits from either source. Note AM never actually got permabashed, he just got entangled in the first fight (and got bashed while under entangle) but I'm pretty sure he died before the entangle wore off. In the second fight he got bashed 3 times, but it was impossible for him to get permabashed since it was just lycan hitting him. From what I remembered AM didn't die during the entangle, that's why I was talking about extending an entangle with a bash. Maybe I wasn't paying that much attention, but there wouldn't be any luck envolved with him dieing in a single entangle, it's quite common for it to proc at least once in a fight. I was thinking of a following bash mostly because of the outcry from the casters. Watch the first fight again. Basically AM gets entangled, then right after entangle ends, he attempts to blink. Right as he's about to finish blinking there's enough damage to kill him-there is no bash after the entangle. I mean sure, he gets bashed during the entangle but those bashes don't do damage. Essentially lycan and sylla together had enough DPS to kill AM in less than 3.4 seconds. The first fight isn't really important since nth still had the game then, and after his buyback AM found his dd rune with which he would've killed the entire Dire team if he didn't get bashed. Lycan and Sylla didn't attack AM together when he died, Lycan attacked him alone and got off 3 bashes in a row versus an Anti-Mage with Butterfly. AM with dd had over 600 damage (!), without the bashes Lycan was dead, without Lycan Fnatic doesn't win. To say this game was not based on luck is just plain stupid. Yes it was an enormous throw by nth, and yes AM would've probably have lived with heart, but saying Loda should have expected to get fu**ing triple bashed by a single Lycan in that fight is really beyond me. Also, lets not forget that Prophet died without buyback, and Batrider got caught out before they could defend and the final defense itself was really weird with basically a bash/entangle to kill of every support. But yea, Loda totally threw that game by himself It was exciting Dota, but Dota is a game of luck sometimes and Fnatic seemed to draw the longest straw this time. Well seeing as to how you're Swedish I detect some bias ;p However, luck is always present in every phase of the game. There were multiple situations in both g1 and 3 that could have gone fnatic's way but didn't due to 'luck'. One thing you can't deny though is that nth' and particularly loda's late game decisions in those team fights were inferior to fnatics'. Come with an argument instead of calling me bias, Era is Swedish too if you didn't know. So what was Fnatics team fight decisions? "Lets bash and entangle them!" yeah, that's clearly the better "decision" to make. nth were so far ahead, that they didn't even need to get in melee range of the basher to win the game. If Loda bought back, tp'd to Fnatic's base and threaten to throne them, or take mega creeps, they would have to go back. Instead he blinks right into them and dies. The game was lost by bad decisions from nth, denying it makes you look silly. edit: The last Loda suicide is just the last of many bad decisions by notide near the end of the game. I'm not saying Loda threw the game with that one blink, there were many similar moves from more of their players leading up to that.
Yes nth threw the game I am not saying anything else, but calling it a "suicide" is just a bit harsh imo. My point is that if Lycan doesn't get those 3 bashes in a row AM doesn't die. You can't "suicide" into something where the odds are actually in your favor. (LD entangling Lina so she can't stun anyone was pretty key in that fight too).
It may just be my personal mentality in these matters where I usually go with the "team a got a lot of lucky bashes/entangles/RPs/whatever and won" instead of "OMG BIG THROWS BY TEAM B LOL SO BAD" which in my opinion is one of the worst things in this community. 
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