EPTDreamHack Dota 2 Invitational - Page 54
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Derity
Germany2952 Posts
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Earll
Norway847 Posts
On March 25 2013 05:16 Derity wrote: not really much luck needed to chain entangle bash needed if it comes from 3 sources. People whining\saying Fnatic got "lucky" because they got bashes\roots when they have 2(3?)bashers and 1 source of root, all with reasonably high attackspeed. | ||
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GraFx
United States429 Posts
On March 25 2013 05:18 Earll wrote: Holy shit I put all my items on Fnatic on dota2lounge, and was sure they were all gone.. Nope! You and me buddy, rolling in the items. 16 rares bet over 4 accounts. $$$ | ||
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duoform
Spain5180 Posts
On March 25 2013 05:18 Earll wrote: Holy shit I put all my items on Fnatic on dota2lounge, and was sure they were all gone.. Nope! Also this : People whining\saying Fnatic got "lucky" because they got bashes\roots when they have 2(3?)bashers and 1 source of root, all with reasonably high attackspeed. 3 bashes? Are you sure you watched the right game? | ||
Kipsate
Netherlands45349 Posts
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cecek
Czech Republic18921 Posts
On March 25 2013 05:22 duoform wrote: 3 bashes? Are you sure you watched the right game? 2 bashes + 1 roots? 3 sources? I dunno. | ||
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iMonAhorsE
Germany275 Posts
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maru~
2345 Posts
On March 25 2013 05:28 iMonAhorsE wrote: next defwin? No, postponed (27th). | ||
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Talron
Germany7651 Posts
On March 25 2013 05:22 duoform wrote: 3 bashes? Are you sure you watched the right game? He said basheRS, not bashes. As in the item. | ||
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PerryHooter
Sweden268 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On March 25 2013 05:16 Derity wrote: not really much luck needed to chain entangle bash needed if it comes from 3 sources. yep, I don't think people who are watching understand probability. From my count AM got bashed 5 times and rooted once, over his two lives. Given the bear's attack speed and lycan's attack speed, it's not all that surprising how many times he got bashed. The bear: 20% chance to entangle, 25% chance to bash => bash or entangle chance = 40% chance you get an entangle or a bash on a hit (assuming they don't proc at the same time) lycan 25% chance to bash. If both lycan and the bear are attacking a target, the chance it gets bashed or entangled on first hit is: 0.4 + 0.25 * 0.6, or 55%. Basically more than 50% of the time, if the bear and lycan are attacking a target, it'll get bashed or entangled on the first hit. The chance that the target will get bashed or entangled at least once in 3 hits when being hit by both sources is: 1 - (0.45^3) = 91%. Thus, even at 3 hits, with just a cranium basher on both heroes, it's almost guaranteed that the target will be bashed at least once. Both heroes had such high attack speed that it's no shocker that AM got bashed around 3 times in each fight-he was hit at least 10 or 12 times, probably more. | ||
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rapture
Germany645 Posts
also pretty sure that am had a butterfly (+35% evasion) edit: nevermind skull basher and entangling claws don't use PRD | ||
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SKC
Brazil18828 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
http://www.dota2wiki.com/wiki/Pseudo-random_distribution#List_of_items_that_use_PRD when you account evasion the chance is lower, so: It goes from 55% chance to bash/entangle on first hit to 35.75% chance. Thus over 3 hits it goes from 91% to: 1 - (1-0.3575)^3 = 73.4% chance. Not that significant of a change, when you think about it. 3 attacks from both heroes probably would occur in about 2 seconds or less, and then the target is either entangled for the next 3 seconds, or bashed for the next 1.4. On March 25 2013 05:47 SKC wrote: I think Bash has PRNG but Entangle doesn't. There's also the cooldown to take into account for multiple bashes, so the second bash must not come from the same sourse. It may not be that bad, but it's definatelly not that simple. yes, the second bash must not come from the same source in the 0.6 second window where the bash is cooling down but the target has not been bashed. If there's another bash from the other source (or an entangle) then it doesn't matter. If AM gets entangled he's disabled for a full 3 seconds. It's not simple, but I'm using a simple calculation to show how likely it is that AM gets bashed at least once over 3 hits from each source. That would likely happen in less than a matter of a couple of seconds given the bear and lycan's attack speeds, thanks to assault aura, ult form, etc. etc. Also, keep in mind that AM's blink has a 0.4 second delay. Thus, he needs a 0.4 second window between bashes to be able to blink out safely. In the first fight, AM blinked in, so he was fucked anyway. Given that the CD period for basher is 0.6 seconds, and there's still a second source that can bash you, it's probably pretty likely that you won't often have that small window of opportunity to get away. And ofc, even if you do, both the bear and lycan are pretty fucking fast. | ||
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SKC
Brazil18828 Posts
On March 25 2013 05:52 wherebugsgo wrote: yeah, I didn't take into account the butterfly. However, cranium basher doesn't use PRD and neither does entangle, unless this page is wrong: (neither does butterfly) http://www.dota2wiki.com/wiki/Pseudo-random_distribution#List_of_items_that_use_PRD when you account evasion the chance is lower, so: It goes from 55% chance to bash/entangle on first hit to 35.75% chance. Thus over 3 hits it goes from 91% to: 1 - (1-0.3575)^3 = 73.4% chance. Not that significant of a change, when you think about it. 3 attacks from both heroes probably would occur in about 2 seconds or less, and then the target is either entangled for the next 3 seconds, or bashed for the next 1.4. yes, the second bash must not come from the same source in the 0.6 second window where the bash is cooling down but the target has not been bashed. If there's another bash from the other source (or an entangle) then it doesn't matter. If AM gets entangled he's disabled for a full 3 seconds. It's not simple, but I'm using a simple calculation to show how likely it is that AM gets bashed at least once over 3 hits from each source. That would likely happen in less than a matter of a couple of seconds given the bear and lycan's attack speeds, thanks to assault aura, ult form, etc. etc. You should still remove one of them from the second hit, since it will be on cooldown. Entangle has a 5s CD, so it will probally only happen once in the fight. If that was the first hit, it would need a bash after more than ~2s for it to last a reasonable amount of time, and for the 3rd hit only 1 ability would not be on CD. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On March 25 2013 05:56 SKC wrote: You should still remove one of them from the second hit, since it will be on cooldown. I'm counting for ONE bash. There is no "second hit" for one bash. e: unless you mean the chance that you get bashed twice or thrice by the same source within 2 seconds or whatever, in the calculation that there's at least one. That percentage will be almost nothing, given how rare it is anyway. This is an upper bound, if I had to guess, the final answer wouldn't be off by much more than 1 or 2%. Remember the chances multiply. | ||
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SKC
Brazil18828 Posts
On March 25 2013 05:57 wherebugsgo wrote: I'm counting for ONE bash. There is no "second hit" for one bash. e: unless you mean the chance that you get bashed twice or thrice by the same source within 2 seconds or whatever, in the calculation that there's at least one. That percentage will be almost nothing, given how rare it is anyway. This is an upper bound, if I had to guess, the final answer wouldn't be off by much more than 1 or 2%. Remember the chances multiply. I mean that your 35.75% chance to bash is only relevant to the first hit. To reach permastun status, you will need another bash coming from only 2 sources, which has a lower chance of happening. Where do your 3 hits come from? If that's for the first bash, it doesn't have to be 3 hits, if it is for a following bash, the chance your be lower than it was for the first hit. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On March 25 2013 06:06 SKC wrote: I mean that your 35.75% chance to bash is only relevant to the first hit. To reach permastun status, you will need another bash coming from only 2 sources, which has a lower chance of happening. Where do your 3 hits come from? If that's for the first bash, it doesn't have to be 3 hits, if it is for a following bash, the chance your be lower than it was for the first hit. 3 hits with at least one bash in there. I'm not calculating the chance the target gets permabashed. I'm not understanding your question. I basically calculated the chance that the target never gets bashed over 3 hits, and subtracted that from 1. That's a very good approximation of the chance will get bashed once in 3 hits from either source. Note AM never actually got permabashed, he just got entangled in the first fight (and got bashed while under entangle) but I'm pretty sure he died before the entangle wore off. In the second fight he got bashed 3 times, but it was impossible for him to get permabashed since it was just lycan hitting him. | ||
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bh.
United States342 Posts
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On March 25 2013 06:17 bh. wrote: can bashes miss? I thought it works on a different table from evasion, ie overrides evasion. if I'm not mistaken the bash can only proc if the attack actually hits. I can't find an official source but the forums on playdota have discussed this in several threads. Against WR for example, you can never bash her when she's under the effects of windrun. AFAIK the bash itself never procs, so it never goes on CD either. | ||
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