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On January 28 2017 10:38 VvvV1251 wrote:
GH is still not there as a pro player, while his individual skills are top notch, going for "pub" play, (very high risk, low reward), and throwing away his life for basically nothing (even when he have a killing spree), will cost them some games in the future.
Overall, Liquid is looking really strong.
There were several times in the first 15 minutes where he baited 3-4 man rotations to chase him while matumba and miracle farmed. Once he had the start he had, it really doesn't matter if he dies or not anymore as long as he creates space for his team. Clearly with double sniper they have secured the late game against Secret in game 2. So the goal is to get there.So MC and the supports made that. And as you can see once our cores got a couple of items it was very easy... just click on an enemy and he dissapears.
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On January 28 2017 17:33 NInoff wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2017 10:38 VvvV1251 wrote:
GH is still not there as a pro player, while his individual skills are top notch, going for "pub" play, (very high risk, low reward), and throwing away his life for basically nothing (even when he have a killing spree), will cost them some games in the future.
Overall, Liquid is looking really strong.
There were several times in the first 15 minutes where he baited 3-4 man rotations to chase him while matumba and miracle farmed. Once he had the start he had, it really doesn't matter if he dies or not anymore as long as he creates space for his team. Clearly with double sniper they have secured the late game against Secret in game 2. So the goal is to get there.So MC and the supports made that. And as you can see once our cores got a couple of items it was very easy... just click on an enemy and he dissapears.
I agree on that statement too.
I dont see GH being the reason they drop games because he plays too risky. The starladder games showed a very strategical thinking GH who only went for risky plays when there was a high reward or he created space for miracle to catch up (example the alchi game)
Liquid at this stage looks strong individually but I am still not impressed by some of their draft ideas. The AF game is a good example of what their problem is. They are a lot more skilled, thats why they could turn fights were the whole team had 4-5% life and plays a good in and out fighting playstyle.. but in the end their draft was not able to win the game. I think they need to catch up in that point... the only reason they lost against vega was pure drafting.
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On January 28 2017 19:28 Anamorph wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2017 17:33 NInoff wrote:On January 28 2017 10:38 VvvV1251 wrote:
GH is still not there as a pro player, while his individual skills are top notch, going for "pub" play, (very high risk, low reward), and throwing away his life for basically nothing (even when he have a killing spree), will cost them some games in the future.
Overall, Liquid is looking really strong.
There were several times in the first 15 minutes where he baited 3-4 man rotations to chase him while matumba and miracle farmed. Once he had the start he had, it really doesn't matter if he dies or not anymore as long as he creates space for his team. Clearly with double sniper they have secured the late game against Secret in game 2. So the goal is to get there.So MC and the supports made that. And as you can see once our cores got a couple of items it was very easy... just click on an enemy and he dissapears. I agree on that statement too. I dont see GH being the reason they drop games because he plays too risky. The starladder games showed a very strategical thinking GH who only went for risky plays when there was a high reward or he created space for miracle to catch up (example the alchi game) Liquid at this stage looks strong individually but I am still not impressed by some of their draft ideas. The AF game is a good example of what their problem is. They are a lot more skilled, thats why they could turn fights were the whole team had 4-5% life and plays a good in and out fighting playstyle.. but in the end their draft was not able to win the game. I think they need to catch up in that point... the only reason they lost against vega was pure drafting.
I think Liquid was experimenting when they lost with their games so far. Sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't. Poor drafts don't seem be a consistent problem in all of their games.
Anyways, I already missed the first game today because I accidentally fell asleep. I was mislead on who won so that was a stressful couple of minutes.
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So with that 2-0 I think they are guaranteed top 2
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Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
One more for the GH fanclub.
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And here is the clowny game
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Yeah clowny it was. I hope they are qualified already, otherwise this draft makes no sense.
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They're qualified ... to meme.
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i just looked at the group stage. For liquid to not qualify secret, navi and alliance pretty much would need to win all their remaining matches 2-0. And with that i mean 2 of these teams. Which isnt really possible, because they still have to play each other. So its in the bag;)
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On January 29 2017 06:29 hunter_x wrote:
i just looked at the group stage. For liquid to not qualify secret, navi and alliance pretty much would need to win all their remaining matches 2-0. And with that i mean 2 of these teams. Which isnt really possible, because they still have to play each other. So its in the bag;)
I believe the only definite way would be Secret and Navi tying each other and winning all other series (which would leave them both with 16 points.), assuming wins are 3 points. I think Alliance winning all of their series and tying with one of those two could result in a two way tie for second, but I don't know the tiebreaker rules.
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On January 29 2017 06:42 Porcupinathy wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2017 06:29 hunter_x wrote:
i just looked at the group stage. For liquid to not qualify secret, navi and alliance pretty much would need to win all their remaining matches 2-0. And with that i mean 2 of these teams. Which isnt really possible, because they still have to play each other. So its in the bag;) I believe the only definite way would be Secret and Navi tying each other and winning all other series (which would leave them both with 16 points.), assuming wins are 3 points. I think Alliance winning all of their series and tying with one of those two could result in a two way tie for second, but I don't know the tiebreaker rules.
Hmm yeah you are right about secret and navi. Thats the only way liquid still could be out. Of course its very unlikely, after having seen these 2 teams play. We will see;)
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Only vega and horde are guaranteed out of top-2.
Secret, Navi, Ad finem and Alliance are the biggest threats. They all have to play each other still so cannot get full points across the board anymore.
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Hungary11291 Posts
Well, as I see it:
nvm, needs more games played
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Aseop, Alliance can get 17 points (5 wins, 2 ties).
It gets complicated  Been trying to make an easy permutation, there's still plenty of options.
But after a couple more games, most options will vanish!  <- but then in reverse.
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Hungary11291 Posts
On January 29 2017 06:53 Badjas wrote:Aseop, Alliance can get 17 points (5 wins, 2 ties). It gets complicated Been trying to make an easy permutation, there's still plenty of options. But after a couple more games, most options will vanish! <- but then in reverse.
A true Thought it wasn't updated.
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Na'vi, Alliance, Ad Finem, and Secret have the ability to take first place from Liquid if my shit math is right
Liquid is down 6 points from the maximum 21(?).
Ad Finem down 5 with 3 more series to go.
Alliance down 4 with four series left.
Na'vi and Secret are down 3 with 6 more series to go.
Tomorrow Alliance has three series where they face both Na'vi and Secret. Two ties and/or a loss will mean Alliance will have lost more points than Liquid and they cannot take first. A single lost series will bring Na'vi and Secret to 6 points lost and they will need perfect series wins in order to take tie first place.
The day after that, Secret has two series against Na'vi and Horde. Na'vi will also face Ad Finem that day so that's two for them too. That's likely the day Liquid we will know whether Liquid has qualified or not. There are two spots for EU teams so it would take a lot for Liquid to not qualify but it's still possible. Two teams will really need to step it up in order for them to not qualify and none of the other contending teams have faced each other yet.
I really just typed this up to help myself think things through so I'm not sure how good this post is but I tried.
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Hungary11291 Posts
So another attempt:
1) AF to pass Liquid: Win out. Everyone beat means Liquid qualifies.
2) Alliance to a) pass Liquid: Beat everyone. Then Liquid qualifies. b) Tie Liquid: 3 wins, 1 tie.
3) Alliance, Navi, Secret form a triangle. Two of them have to tie each other and then beat everyone else to pass/tie Liquid. So once that constellation becomes impossible (two of them losing more than one game), Liquid should be through too.
Better?
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On January 29 2017 06:59 juuto wrote:
Na'vi, Alliance, Ad Finem, and Secret have the ability to take first place from Liquid if my shit math is right
Liquid is down 6 points from the maximum 21(?).
Ad Finem down 5 with 3 more series to go.
Alliance down 4 with four series left.
Na'vi and Secret are down 3 with 6 more series to go.
Tomorrow Alliance has three series where they face both Na'vi and Secret. Two ties and/or a loss will mean Alliance will have lost more points than Liquid and they cannot take first. A single lost series will bring Na'vi and Secret to 6 points lost and they will need perfect series wins in order to take tie first place.
The day after that, Secret has two series against Na'vi and Horde. Na'vi will also face Ad Finem that day so that's two for them too. That's likely the day Liquid we will know whether Liquid has qualified or not. There are two spots for EU teams so it would take a lot for Liquid to not qualify but it's still possible. Two teams will really need to step it up in order for them to not qualify and none of the other contending teams have faced each other yet.
I really just typed this up to help myself think things through so I'm not sure how good this post is but I tried.
That sounds about right, good effort to write this;)
So we will just wait, and see what happens. If we somehow dont qualify, i will drive to berlin, and give kuro a slap in the face for that game 2 draft XD
All this theory crafting really shows how hungry we are for a lan tournament.
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On January 29 2017 07:07 Aesop wrote:
So another attempt:
1) AF to pass Liquid: Win out. Everyone beat means Liquid qualifies.
2) Alliance to a) pass Liquid: Beat everyone. Then Liquid qualifies. b) Tie Liquid: 3 wins, 1 tie.
3) Alliance, Navi, Secret form a triangle. Two of them have to tie each other and then beat everyone else to pass/tie Liquid. So once that constellation becomes impossible (two of them losing more than one game), Liquid should be through too.
Better?
I think you've got it.
The Alliance, Na'vi, and Secret triangle is the biggest threat to Liquid's qualification but it seem very unlikely, maybe even impossible. I forgot to mention that Ad Finem cannot afford a tie or loss but you noticed.
There are two scenarios in which Alliance survives as a threat tomorrow.
Next Matchups:
Alliance vs Secret
Alliance vs Vega
Alliance vs Na'vi
The Following Matchup:
Secret vs Horde
Ad Finem vs Na'vi
Secret vs Na'vi
Two Wins & A Tie for Alliance
If the tie is with Vega, Both Secret and Na'vi cannot afford to lose anymore points. Alliance, Secret, and Na'vi will both be -6 points (Liquid's score.)
If the the tie is with either Secret and Na'vi, the results are basically the same except Secret or Na'vi will be -5 instead of -6.
Either way, they cannot afford to lose points because it's either -2 or -3 in order to threaten Liquid.
One or both of Na'vi and Secret will eliminated in the following matchups. Alliance will need to 2-0 AF to qualify which means Liquid qualifies.
Three Wins for Alliance
Alliance wins every series in the next day's matchups.
Alliance remains at -4 while Secret and Na'vi are -6. Alliance can survive a tie but Secret and Na'vi cannot afford any loss of points.
Ad Finem vs Na'vi will be an elimination match where both teams can lose their ability to threaten Liquid's spot.
Ad Finem's survival through a win in the following matchups means Ad Finem is at -5 and Alliance at -4 (both above Liquid.) However, both teams face each other in the very last series. Alliance can survive a tie but not a loss. One team will be eliminated as a threat. Liquid qualifies.
Na'vi's survival will mean that they are tied with Liquid at -6. Alliance will be at -4 while Liquid, Na'vi, and Secret are at -6. If there is a tie in the Na'vi vs Secret matchup, Liquid qualifies.
If either Na'vi or Secret survives their matchup, I will refer to them as The Challenger.
If there is a 2-0, Alliance will be -4 and The Challenger (Na'vi or Secret) will have tied Liquid at -6 still. A tie between Ad Finem and Alliance will mean there will be a threeway tiebreaker between Alliance, The Challenger, and Liquid. Liquid must compete to qualify. A win for Alliance means two way tiebreaker between The Challenger, and Liquid. Liquid must compete to qualify. A loss for Alliance will means Liquid qualifies.
Alliance Doesn't Threaten
If they lose more than 2 points in the next matches, Alliance will no longer be a threat. Ad Finem, Na'vi, and Secret threaten Liquid.
If Secret lost points to Alliance, Secret vs Horde being anything other than a win will mean they're eliminated as a threat. If Na'vi lost points to Alliance, Ad Finem vs Na'vi will be an elimination match for both teams.If Secret was previously eliminated, Liquid qualifies. If both Ad Finem or Na'vi no longer threaten, Liquid qualifies. If Secret and Na'vi both survive to the Secret vs Na'vi series, only one of them can threaten. Liquid qualifies.
If Secret didn't lose points to Alliance, a tie or win for Secret against Horde will still put them above Liquid. A loss will make even. If Na'vi didn't lose points to Alliance, Ad Finem vs Na'vi outcome can lead to many things. Na'vi will tie Liquid if they lose. Na'vi will be above Liquid if there is a tie or win and Ad Finem eliminated. Secret vs Na'vi might or might not lead into an elimination. Worst case scenario? They didn't lose any points up until their matchup, Secret and Na'vi tie putting both of them at -5, they win every series afterwards, and Liquid does not qualify.
At this point, things get a little too complicated but it seems like there aren't that many ways for Liquid to not qualify, it's the above worst case scenario or them losing tie breakers. I think it'll require a hell of a lot for Liquid to be forced into tiebreakers or be eliminated. They probably were guaranteed safety if they didn't put Matu on mid Omniknight but they decided to clown around. I left many variables out, probably made mistakes that I now refuse to go back and correct, but I guess the point is for me to have some fun with this shit and giving myself and hopefully others some piece of mind. We deserve it.
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On January 27 2017 07:25 juuto wrote:
They went 1-1 against another European team that got 2nd place at the last major. They obviously could've done better but it's a bit ridiculous to be this negative about an even result against another strong team.
you and hunter can rate AF as good/strong but I don't have to do the same, they rode their luck and this season will show that (hopefully), I have my opinion you can have yours is no problem for me
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EPT
