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On May 28 2015 03:48 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2015 03:47 IntoTheheart wrote:
I'm a bit skeptical that we'll hit over $10m. ? 10m is essentially already achieved 15 is the questionable total, we wont reach it unless the immortals cause a substantial uptick comparable to last year
There are two more sets of immortals, right?
I wouldn't find 15m too hard to hit if thats the case and they are quality and cost a lot of money to purchase in compendiums
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Aren't we at roughly 9.2? That's not "essentially 10m."
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On May 28 2015 03:47 IntoTheheart wrote:
I'm a bit skeptical that we'll hit over $10m.
Why would you be skeptical of something that's basically 100% sure to happen? It's like being skeptical that the sun will rise tomorrow.
Also dota back ontop of steam concurrent, are we alive now or is CG:GO just dedder game?
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On May 28 2015 03:49 IntoTheheart wrote:
Aren't we at roughly 9.2? That's not "essentially 10m."
The chances of us not reaching 10m are exactly identical to the chances of any of the following added up:
1) The world ends apocalyptically
2) The internet loses all viable monetary exchange methods for at least 2 months
3) Steam ends as a service
4) Seattle suffers a tsunami/earthquake sufficient to destroy key arena
thats about it.
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On May 28 2015 03:50 Unleashing wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2015 03:47 IntoTheheart wrote:
I'm a bit skeptical that we'll hit over $10m. Why would you be skeptical of something that's basically 100% sure to happen? It's like being skeptical that the sun will rise tomorrow. Also dota back ontop of steam concurrent, are we alive now or is CG:GO just dedder game?
The main reason is due to the fact that the ticket purchases can be modeled using a logarithmic curve. But I guess you and Sn0 are right, it's probably a lock with how much time we have. After all, log(x) -> large number as x -> large number.
On May 28 2015 03:52 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2015 03:49 IntoTheheart wrote:
Aren't we at roughly 9.2? That's not "essentially 10m." The chances of us not reaching 10m are exactly identical to the chances of any of the following added up: 1) The world ends apocalyptically 2) The internet loses all viable monetary exchange methods for at least 2 months 3) Steam ends as a service 4) Seattle suffers a tsunami/earthquake sufficient to destroy key arena thats about it.
I completely overlooked how much time we had until TI5. Oops.
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what about a chinese invasion
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I mean even the more conservative estimates of where we'll end up ignoring any potential spikes from immortals easily go above 11 million.
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Are qualifiers usually this far away from the event in DotA?
Or did Valve just open ticket/Compendium Sales far ahead in advance?
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28102 Posts
qualifiers were basically the same time last year. same with the compendium release.
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Northern Ireland22213 Posts
On May 28 2015 03:53 IntoTheheart wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2015 03:50 Unleashing wrote:On May 28 2015 03:47 IntoTheheart wrote:
I'm a bit skeptical that we'll hit over $10m. Why would you be skeptical of something that's basically 100% sure to happen? It's like being skeptical that the sun will rise tomorrow. Also dota back ontop of steam concurrent, are we alive now or is CG:GO just dedder game? The main reason is due to the fact that the ticket purchases can be modeled using a logarithmic curve. But I guess you and Sn0 are right, it's probably a lock with how much time we have. After all, log(x) -> large number as x -> large number. Show nested quote +On May 28 2015 03:52 Sn0_Man wrote:On May 28 2015 03:49 IntoTheheart wrote:
Aren't we at roughly 9.2? That's not "essentially 10m." The chances of us not reaching 10m are exactly identical to the chances of any of the following added up: 1) The world ends apocalyptically 2) The internet loses all viable monetary exchange methods for at least 2 months 3) Steam ends as a service 4) Seattle suffers a tsunami/earthquake sufficient to destroy key arena thats about it. I completely overlooked how much time we had until TI5. Oops.
yeah and how there are two more sets of immortals to go
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It's slightly earlier this year but not that much. A week long dota tournament needs to be announced a lot ahead of time for attendee's to clear schedules etc.
That said, few other tournaments have quite this much separation between the end of league/qualification play and LAN finals play. Partially because they make money primarily from game broadcasts so they emphasize league/qualification play and string it out a bit etc, plus any gap is just a delay before they can announce their NEXT season (which again they need to make money).
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im pretty sure our immortals are late compared to last year according to that prize pool growth graph
although tbh i liked the first batch of immortals a lot better
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Well last year there was only 1 set of immortals so you could argue that our immortals were early this year as they balled into the first-day spike
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Have they released any information on the prize pool distribution?
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Assume same as last year or minimal changes.
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On May 28 2015 04:09 Sn0_Man wrote:
Well last year there was only 1 set of immortals so you could argue that our immortals were early this year as they balled into the first-day spike
oh really
what's the second spike on day 22 for then
unless that first day spike for last year is just for compendium purchases, and day 22 is immortal release?
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i think u need to read again babe
ur edit is right
THIS YEAR immortals (set 1) were part of the inevitable day 1 spike that occurs even without immortals
LAST YEAR immortals were the day 22 spike
Meanwhile arteezy has discovered that techies is slightly stream-snipeable and has lowered himself to the point of minimap covering w0w
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On May 28 2015 04:15 Sn0_Man wrote:
i think u need to read again babe
ur edit is right
THIS YEAR immortals (set 1) were part of the inevitable day 1 spike that occurs even without immortals
LAST YEAR immortals were the day 22 spike
Meanwhile arteezy has discovered that techies is slightly stream-snipeable and has lowered himself to the point of minimap covering w0w
Is being stream-sniped a common problem in high-level DotA? I wonder if there's a good way of hiding yourself, like how StarCraft players have barcodes.
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EPT
