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On September 29 2014 03:12 Plansix wrote:
Players need to adjust and feel the fear, rather than just yolo onto highground when a teir 2 is down. They also need to get used to playing and fearing these super late game heroes like spectre, antimage and naga. Its going to suck for pubs for sure, because people are stupid, but that was always the case.
But like all red blooded dota loves, I will fear the naga vs spectre games.
It doesn't suck for that reason, it sucks because a lot of heroes and strategies have been pushed to "ehhhh" tier by how the patch changed dota fundamentally. Heroes that thrive off early ganks and early pushes (My icon should display my bias here) have been pushed aside by making what they offer less valuable. Heroes that aimed to gank and snowball in the midgame (Tusk [goddamn that pun] and bounty) still offer what they used to, but again it isn't as valuable as it was previously, so picking them for those roles is questionable.
My struggle with the patch is that I liked to win lanes, turn that into pushed towers, and use that momentum to win the game. That's much harder to execute now than it was before, and it feels like you need to consider your hero picks based not on what they bring to the first 15 minutes, but what they offer afterwards.
That said, this patch did make Ogre Magi even more of a beast than he was before, so I'm happy about that.
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I can't believe you are comparing winrates from a long and stabilised patch with winrates from a patch younger than a week. Never mind the sample sizes, judging op-ness of heroes before a metagame begins to form just doesn't make any sense. You can judge that only after people learn how to make full use of their potential in the new environment.
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You can already see overarching trends in the pub winrates, though. It isn't the be-all-end-all discovery of the patch, but to discard it as useless information because "its too soon" is underestimating people's ability to factor in that it's still early in the patch's life.
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No one is arguing that you can't see a trend, they are saying that the trend might not continue in the way everyone is saying. And the patch was going to make games longer, that was clearly the intent. 20-30 minute games are are not great dota. Shit is weird right now and of course heroes will rise and fall. And as always, Icefrog will adjust if it turns out to be dota poop.
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So far I REALLY dislike this patch.
It makes every single early game hero meaningless. Might as well pick 5 ultra-late game carries, and if at least one of then can hold high ground for a little bit you will win.
We will probably see some change pretty soon, but for now this patch is terrible. You can build a 200k gold and Exp lead and if you fail a push it is even. EVEN AFTER the gold changes it is still very, very harsh to the leading team.
Might as well pick a Specter off-lane, Phantom Lancer mid, Anti-mage safe lane with Alchemist and any anti-pusher.
God, I really hope someone finds a way to change the meta from this first few days.
Might as well remove Enchantress, Crystal Maiden, Chen (the aghs upgrade is really underwhelming after testing) and any other early game hero.
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On September 29 2014 03:51 Fleetfeet wrote:
You can already see overarching trends in the pub winrates, though. It isn't the be-all-end-all discovery of the patch, but to discard it as useless information because "its too soon" is underestimating people's ability to factor in that it's still early in the patch's life.
Well, guilty as charged on the underestimating part as I have seen people misunderstand statistics way too many times. But I still think that this information is useless if you say that it's representative of what heroes are OP and UP. Current data is useful for determining what heroes work best in the transitional period (either are good even being played according to people's 6.81 mindset even in 6.82, are good at punishing 6.81 mindset in 6.82 or are just plain good in 6.82). It can translate to later metagame trends, but by no means does it HAVE to translate. And possibly incorrect or partially incorrect data can be worse than no data, as it creates wrong assumptions.
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On September 29 2014 02:40 FinestHour wrote:
iono how people are playing earth spirit rofl ive had 0 issues with the q kicking nothing animation people are complaining about
I haven't tried the new one but the previous patch one made it impossible to target under many circumstances, so you pretty much have to combo and not use kick when there are many targets around. It's even worse with quickcast, imo quickcast is too buggy with earth spirit to even play the hero with it on.
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On September 29 2014 03:59 Jotoco wrote:
So far I REALLY dislike this patch.
It makes every single early game hero meaningless. Might as well pick 5 ultra-late game carries, and if at least one of then can hold high ground for a little bit you will win.
We will probably see some change pretty soon, but for now this patch is terrible. You can build a 200k gold and Exp lead and if you fail a push it is even. EVEN AFTER the gold changes it is still very, very harsh to the leading team.
Might as well pick a Specter off-lane, Phantom Lancer mid, Anti-mage safe lane with Alchemist and any anti-pusher.
God, I really hope someone finds a way to change the meta from this first few days.
Might as well remove Enchantress, Crystal Maiden, Chen (the aghs upgrade is really underwhelming after testing) and any other early game hero.
CM's not actually that bad, because she benefits a lot from gold (BKB + ult, blink, all very useful) and isn't restricted to just early game for being useful. She was previously because you wouldn't really get much for gold and exp, but now that that's less of a problem, she's in a decent position.
I've been playing around with picking semicore heroes as "supports" these days. It's actually do-able, and I'm okay with that. Windranger is too fun to play to be mad at the patch.
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On September 29 2014 04:56 Fleetfeet wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2014 03:59 Jotoco wrote:
So far I REALLY dislike this patch.
It makes every single early game hero meaningless. Might as well pick 5 ultra-late game carries, and if at least one of then can hold high ground for a little bit you will win.
We will probably see some change pretty soon, but for now this patch is terrible. You can build a 200k gold and Exp lead and if you fail a push it is even. EVEN AFTER the gold changes it is still very, very harsh to the leading team.
Might as well pick a Specter off-lane, Phantom Lancer mid, Anti-mage safe lane with Alchemist and any anti-pusher.
God, I really hope someone finds a way to change the meta from this first few days.
Might as well remove Enchantress, Crystal Maiden, Chen (the aghs upgrade is really underwhelming after testing) and any other early game hero. CM's not actually that bad, because she benefits a lot from gold (BKB + ult, blink, all very useful) and isn't restricted to just early game for being useful. She was previously because you wouldn't really get much for gold and exp, but now that that's less of a problem, she's in a decent position. I've been playing around with picking semicore heroes as "supports" these days. It's actually do-able, and I'm okay with that. Windranger is too fun to play to be mad at the patch.
Yeah, but come 40 min in she is just food. Her disable is too "soft" and unless you built a sheep she doesn't contribute, even with BKB she melts to right click.
And about semi-carries as support, that is true. I've been playing Alch support and Zeus support, previously wraith king support and every kind of greedy support that benefits from gold and XP.
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On September 29 2014 03:12 Plansix wrote:
Players need to adjust and feel the fear, rather than just yolo onto highground when a teir 2 is down. They also need to get used to playing and fearing these super late game heroes like spectre, antimage and naga. Its going to suck for pubs for sure, because people are stupid, but that was always the case.
But like all red blooded dota loves, I will fear the naga vs spectre games.
I don't think you understand. In competitive play, you will very likely see people dodging fights later in the game, and you will see more late game oriented line-ups where people just farm. This is due to the fact that it is too easy to throw away your advantage. This is exactly why League of Legends sucks so much competitively in my opinion, because no matter how far ahead you are, all it takes is one or two people to get picked off late game and you lose (or a really bad teamfight). In DotA, buybacks/fortifications/levels/gold/etc. all contributed to the winning team having an advantage and able to maintain that advantage despite losing a fight or two.
The current system favors late game carries and playing safe/defensive styles currently. The exp/gold you get from teamfights is just way too high, even after the changes.
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On September 29 2014 02:32 Buckyman wrote:
He's correct in saying that the 40-60% difference is too small to matter by itself.
There's also a more subtle argument he didn't explicitly make that I might have selected the 45-55 line specifically to make my conclusion look stronger. (I didn't, and you can that draw your own line and count yourself to confirm the result)
TRAP[yoo]'s implied "not enough data yet" criticism doesn't invalidate the results. The huge sample size means that small differences in win% are statistically significant.
All right I have to take some issue with this, please hear me out as I do have some formal training in statistics (as I'm sure many of you here do).
The sample sizes in pub Dota reach levels of certainty for the summary data you see extremely quickly due to the massive numbers of games played. But that is all you can conclude: with an extremely high level of certainty, these are the win rate distributions of these heroes at this point after the patch compared to the entire duration of the previous patch. You can state based off of this data that win rates are "slightly more imbalanced" currently. If you are talking about the meta as of this instant, and no further than that, you can say that about "the meta."
What you cannot say with a remotely equal level of certainty is that the patch itself is less balanced. Despite the ridiculous number of iterations that happens in the span of a week, this is not Kage Bunshin no Jutsu training: it will still take time for every player individually to adjust to the patch and some heroes will be better or worse off during this transition period. The numbers certainly reflect that last piece; they do not reflect how balanced the patch itself is, not until the players have time to really figure it out.
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i think it's fair to say early game is officially dead in competitive.
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On September 29 2014 03:12 Plansix wrote:
Players need to adjust and feel the fear, rather than just yolo onto highground when a teir 2 is down. They also need to get used to playing and fearing these super late game heroes like spectre, antimage and naga. Its going to suck for pubs for sure, because people are stupid, but that was always the case.
But like all red blooded dota loves, I will fear the naga vs spectre games.
Couldn't agree more.
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Czech Republic18921 Posts
On September 29 2014 03:02 Buckyman wrote:
I found 4 sub-30 games in a sample of 99, after excluding 1v1 and no-stats-recorded games.
4 out of my last 15 games have been under 30 minutes, all 6.82 obviously. 923727299, 924423186, 926671457 and 928022564.
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Vatican City State2902 Posts
On September 29 2014 02:13 cecek wrote:
Pub winrates don't mean shit in terms of balance.
Midas is like the worst item in the game, imo. 2k worth of networth that doesn't help you fight is like exactly what you don't want to have.
you have to have a plan behind a midas. you can't just say "oh i'm behind better go dark shrine/divine/midas" because you're never gonna get picks with a midas. pickoff items are the new catchup items.
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On September 29 2014 07:00 Nymzee wrote:
i think it's fair to say early game is officially dead in competitive.
They will find new ways to get every inch of value out of the early game. The difference is that getting a couple of kills will not result in all three tier ones being killed and then snowballing to the entire map. Winning all three lanes isn't enough to have an overwhelming advantage any more.
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On September 29 2014 03:58 Plansix wrote:
No one is arguing that you can't see a trend, they are saying that the trend might not continue in the way everyone is saying. And the patch was going to make games longer, that was clearly the intent. 20-30 minute games are are not great dota. Shit is weird right now and of course heroes will rise and fall. And as always, Icefrog will adjust if it turns out to be dota poop.
Isn't this a familiar argument from SC2 Balance.
Know how that story ended.
To be fair, 6.81 meta changed pretty dramatically around TI. Doesn't think that discounts early hypotheses about the end state meta for this patch.
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On September 29 2014 08:10 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2014 07:00 Nymzee wrote:
i think it's fair to say early game is officially dead in competitive. They will find new ways to get every inch of value out of the early game. The difference is that getting a couple of kills will not result in all three tier ones being killed and then snowballing to the entire map. Winning all three lanes isn't enough to have an overwhelming advantage any more.
If u win all three lanes, u deserve an overwhelming advantage.
Usually I like Icefrog patch
But the one thing I don't is this EXP/Gold kill streak change.
Essentially this means IF THE opponent ever get a good teamfight one time something like trade 3 hero for the 5 enemy hero in a fight, the game literally goes even even if u r 15k exp/gold ahead.
The swing is too huge and drastic IMO.
This means players are going play a lot safer after securing a lead and keep waiting out the rosh while farming.
The new meta is gonna favor greedy lineup with multiple cores.
This means pubs will be even more tryhard than ever.
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The real problem with the comeback mechanic is that the exp and gold is so evenly spread across everyone in range.
It's almost always preferable to have 5 heroes with good levels and items, as opposed to 2 heroes with massive farm and 2 supports that are starved. And the team that's ahead from the start is probably going to have most of their gold and exp centered on a few heroes, while the team that's behind is getting gold and exp on everyone just from pickoffs and a couple kills during fights.
End result is that the team that's "ahead" by 15k gold and 15k exp may actually have a weaker 5-on-5 purely from level and item distribution.
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On September 29 2014 08:21 Sabu113 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2014 03:58 Plansix wrote:
No one is arguing that you can't see a trend, they are saying that the trend might not continue in the way everyone is saying. And the patch was going to make games longer, that was clearly the intent. 20-30 minute games are are not great dota. Shit is weird right now and of course heroes will rise and fall. And as always, Icefrog will adjust if it turns out to be dota poop. Isn't this a familiar argument from SC2 Balance.
There must be an equivalent to Godwin's Law here.
It's also a remarkably silly argument since, as much as SC2 is a complex game with a far higher mechanical skill cap, the human dynamics of 1v1 Starcraft compared to 5v5 Dota2 are overwhelmingly more complex, and these are a major factor in the evolution of a new meta.
No one is saying "ignore the data." But statistics lie if you don't contextualize them, and arguments like this will inevitably be full of confirmation bias. The particular context of evaluating these changes is that this is a massive patch that a lot of individual humans are in the middle of adjusting to, in the middle of a complex human-driven environment.
If you want to see hand-waving, see hand-waving. If you don't want to contextualize data, then don't. But let me ask you this:
Do you believe Bloodseeker has gotten stronger or weaker in this patch? Most of the board believes he has gotten far stronger, perhaps to the point of being broken-strong. And yet his win rate has plummeted six five full percentage points. So what do you believe? That Bloodseeker was actually nerfed, or that Bloodseeker pickers have not adjusted to the patch?
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EPT
