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On March 03 2020 03:35 JimmiC wrote:
I think the Obama and the rest of the Dems thought they had the "next one" in Hilary and it was a slam dunk. I'm sure he thought when he put her in his administration and so on that was all that was needed.
Hillary Clinton is also very old. US politics could really use a lot less septuagenarians. The ancient will inhabit less of the future then the young, so they shouldn't be making all of the decisions that shape that future.
Actively building a political movement that fosters young talent is detrimental to the personal career of the older established people in that movement, but absolutely necessary to foster longevity for the movement itself. US politics seems to consist mostly of people who should be long-retired.
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Wow, Clinton is 7 years older than Merkel.
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Yeah, but even with that plan, Clinton very clearly was not "the future of the party" simply due to her age. She might have been the next president, but you still need to foster younger talent for the long run.
On March 03 2020 03:55 Sent. wrote:
Wow, Clinton is 7 years older than Merkel.
And Merkel will retire from politics as soon as her current term is up, while clinton probably still wants to be elected. The US elects people at the point where they retire in other systems.
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Wow, Klobuchar drops out with less than a day before the voting starts?
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On March 03 2020 04:27 Geo.Rion wrote:
Wow, Klobuchar drops out with less than a day before the voting starts?
Last ditch effort to destroy Bernie. If Warren doesn't drop today, it confirms they are all in cahoots to take down Bernie.
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Canada8989 Posts
538 now has "no one" winning a majority at 65% with Sanders at around 20%.
Obviously we'll know more tomorrow night but it's looking like chaos ahead. Especially with how the calendar is, there's a good chance Biden finishes his run very strong in the last few states before going to the convention...
Hopefully Sanders can create an insurmountable gap tomorow night.
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On March 03 2020 04:44 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2020 04:27 Geo.Rion wrote:
Wow, Klobuchar drops out with less than a day before the voting starts? Last ditch effort to destroy Bernie. If Warren doesn't drop today, it confirms they are all in cahoots to take down Bernie.
At least Bloomer will still remain as a spoiler to help Bernie out.
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Norway28707 Posts
Can't find data for Klobuchar, but I think they're pretty evenly spread out. Warren's second preference was a strong bernie with klobuchar making an appearance (prolly some 'we need a female president' in there), buttigieg was 21 bernie 19 biden and warren and 17 bloomberg. bloomberg only one who doesn't have bernie as most picked #2.
Taken from here
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Canada8989 Posts
On March 03 2020 05:01 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2020 04:44 Mohdoo wrote:On March 03 2020 04:27 Geo.Rion wrote:
Wow, Klobuchar drops out with less than a day before the voting starts? Last ditch effort to destroy Bernie. If Warren doesn't drop today, it confirms they are all in cahoots to take down Bernie. At least Bloomer will still remain as a spoiler to help Bernie out.
It is very funny that Bloomberg will have spend hundreds and hundreds of millions into a effort that will most likely help Sanders in the end.
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On March 03 2020 05:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:Can't find data for Klobuchar, but I think they're pretty evenly spread out. Warren's second preference was a strong bernie with klobuchar making an appearance (prolly some 'we need a female president' in there), buttigieg was 21 bernie 19 biden and warren and 17 bloomberg. bloomberg only one who doesn't have bernie as most picked #2. Taken from here
The amount of women I know who are deeply invested in having a female president is absolutely depressing.
On March 03 2020 04:58 Nakajin wrote:
538 now has "no one" winning a majority at 65% with Sanders at around 20%.
Obviously we'll know more tomorrow night but it's looking like chaos ahead. Especially with how the calendar is, there's a good chance Biden finishes his run very strong in the last few states before going to the convention...
Hopefully Sanders can create an insurmountable gap tomorow night.
So long as Bernie ends up with a single delegate more than Biden, I'm not worried. Find me a single person as enthusiastic about Biden as your average Bernie voter. So long as Bernie has a single delegate on Biden, Bernie's following will prevent DNC from making Biden king.
I really think people are wildly underestimating the amount of revolt that will take place if DNC actually went for it. No matter who drops, Bernie is winning California.
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Tomorrow is the day,its exciting. Bloomberg,Biden,Sanders,Warren are the only 4 left now?
The moderates are trying to consolidate behind biden but then why is bloomberg still there. Maybe there is a plan which we will see play out in coming week or he could stay in till the end and then either consolidate behind biden or bloomberg depending on who is deemed to have the best chance.
Chances of sanders to become the candidate i estimate at below 50%. I just read the rules for the primarys again and there are so many ways in which things can go wrong.
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Canada8989 Posts
On March 03 2020 05:07 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2020 05:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:Can't find data for Klobuchar, but I think they're pretty evenly spread out. Warren's second preference was a strong bernie with klobuchar making an appearance (prolly some 'we need a female president' in there), buttigieg was 21 bernie 19 biden and warren and 17 bloomberg. bloomberg only one who doesn't have bernie as most picked #2. Taken from here The amount of women I know who are deeply invested in having a female president is absolutely depressing. Show nested quote +On March 03 2020 04:58 Nakajin wrote:
538 now has "no one" winning a majority at 65% with Sanders at around 20%.
Obviously we'll know more tomorrow night but it's looking like chaos ahead. Especially with how the calendar is, there's a good chance Biden finishes his run very strong in the last few states before going to the convention...
Hopefully Sanders can create an insurmountable gap tomorow night. So long as Bernie ends up with a single delegate more than Biden, I'm not worried. Find me a single person as enthusiastic about Biden as your average Bernie voter. So long as Bernie has a single delegate on Biden, Bernie's following will prevent DNC from making Biden king. I really think people are wildly underestimating the amount of revolt that will take place if DNC actually went for it. No matter who drops, Bernie is winning California.
I think Bloomberg 100% set fire to the convention hall before casting his delegate on Sanders. If Biden + him get over the line or extremely close to it IDK what happen. Warren goes for Sanders for sure, Klob just endorsed Biden so she could stand behind him at the convention, it's only a handful of delegate but who knows.
Although I don't really know how it work once we get there, are the delegate tied to what their candidate choose or is it free for all?
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Canada8989 Posts
So basically the rule is "there are no rules", great...
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On March 03 2020 05:16 Nakajin wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2020 05:07 Mohdoo wrote:On March 03 2020 05:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:Can't find data for Klobuchar, but I think they're pretty evenly spread out. Warren's second preference was a strong bernie with klobuchar making an appearance (prolly some 'we need a female president' in there), buttigieg was 21 bernie 19 biden and warren and 17 bloomberg. bloomberg only one who doesn't have bernie as most picked #2. Taken from here The amount of women I know who are deeply invested in having a female president is absolutely depressing. On March 03 2020 04:58 Nakajin wrote:
538 now has "no one" winning a majority at 65% with Sanders at around 20%.
Obviously we'll know more tomorrow night but it's looking like chaos ahead. Especially with how the calendar is, there's a good chance Biden finishes his run very strong in the last few states before going to the convention...
Hopefully Sanders can create an insurmountable gap tomorow night. So long as Bernie ends up with a single delegate more than Biden, I'm not worried. Find me a single person as enthusiastic about Biden as your average Bernie voter. So long as Bernie has a single delegate on Biden, Bernie's following will prevent DNC from making Biden king. I really think people are wildly underestimating the amount of revolt that will take place if DNC actually went for it. No matter who drops, Bernie is winning California. I think Bloomberg 100% set fire to the convention hall before casting his delegate on Sanders. If Biden + him get over the line or extremely close to it IDK what happen. Warren goes for Sanders for sure, Klob just endorsed Biden so she could stand behind him at the convention, who knows. Although I don't really know how it work once we get there, are the delegate tied to what their candidate choose or is it free for all?
What I'm saying is that by the time of the convention, the DNC will have enough data showing "whoa, seems a lot of people don't actually care what our rules say. If we nominate anyone but the plurality winner, we will likely lose 2020 in a landslide, perhaps even leading to the formation of a new progressive party. That can't happen, so I guess we get Bernie"
Currently, the powers that be would have a very good reason to think I, a former Clinton voter, would respect the DNC's rules. But that's super inaccurate. I am 100% sure I will leave the party if anyone other than plurality gets the nom. It's not even slightly in question to me. No vote, party changed the day after the convention if the plurality is not the winner.
It's not important to me what rules the DNC cites. I am still a thinking, independent creature with my own set of ethics. If the DNC crosses that line, the DNC is no longer valuable or helpful to me.
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On March 03 2020 05:22 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2020 05:16 Nakajin wrote:On March 03 2020 05:07 Mohdoo wrote:On March 03 2020 05:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:Can't find data for Klobuchar, but I think they're pretty evenly spread out. Warren's second preference was a strong bernie with klobuchar making an appearance (prolly some 'we need a female president' in there), buttigieg was 21 bernie 19 biden and warren and 17 bloomberg. bloomberg only one who doesn't have bernie as most picked #2. Taken from here The amount of women I know who are deeply invested in having a female president is absolutely depressing. On March 03 2020 04:58 Nakajin wrote:
538 now has "no one" winning a majority at 65% with Sanders at around 20%.
Obviously we'll know more tomorrow night but it's looking like chaos ahead. Especially with how the calendar is, there's a good chance Biden finishes his run very strong in the last few states before going to the convention...
Hopefully Sanders can create an insurmountable gap tomorow night. So long as Bernie ends up with a single delegate more than Biden, I'm not worried. Find me a single person as enthusiastic about Biden as your average Bernie voter. So long as Bernie has a single delegate on Biden, Bernie's following will prevent DNC from making Biden king. I really think people are wildly underestimating the amount of revolt that will take place if DNC actually went for it. No matter who drops, Bernie is winning California. I think Bloomberg 100% set fire to the convention hall before casting his delegate on Sanders. If Biden + him get over the line or extremely close to it IDK what happen. Warren goes for Sanders for sure, Klob just endorsed Biden so she could stand behind him at the convention, who knows. Although I don't really know how it work once we get there, are the delegate tied to what their candidate choose or is it free for all? What I'm saying is that by the time of the convention, the DNC will have enough data showing "whoa, seems a lot of people don't actually care what our rules say. If we nominate anyone but the plurality winner, we will likely lose 2020 in a landslide, perhaps even leading to the formation of a new progressive party. That can't happen, so I guess we get Bernie" Currently, the powers that be would have a very good reason to think I, a former Clinton voter, would respect the DNC's rules. But that's super inaccurate. I am 100% sure I will leave the party if anyone other than plurality gets the nom. It's not even slightly in question to me. No vote, party changed the day after the convention if the plurality is not the winner. It's not important to me what rules the DNC cites. I am still a thinking, independent creature with my own set of ethics. If the DNC crosses that line, the DNC is no longer valuable or helpful to me.
Would this sentiment hold if Bernie wasn't on track to win the majority?
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Canada8989 Posts
On March 03 2020 05:34 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2020 05:01 Liquid`Drone wrote:Can't find data for Klobuchar, but I think they're pretty evenly spread out. Warren's second preference was a strong bernie with klobuchar making an appearance (prolly some 'we need a female president' in there), buttigieg was 21 bernie 19 biden and warren and 17 bloomberg. bloomberg only one who doesn't have bernie as most picked #2. Taken from here This is what I've read as well, I don't think these drop outs hurt Bernie, at worst it is a even mix for Bernie and Biden. If Bloomberg was to go out that might hurt Bernie and if Warren was to drop that would hurt Biden. But other drop outs don't move the needle. I also tend to trust Vegas especially this close and they still have Bernie as the favorite. I really think Pete and Klobuchar's drop outs were about saving face and protecting the notoriety they got. Pete gets to say he was third, which would be unlikely after super Tuesday and the numbers had Bernie being Klob in Minnesota which would be an awful look for her moving forward.
It does make it easier for Biden to get over the 15% line in Cali that's a big deal, it could also making it easier for Sanders in in Minnesota but it's less of a impact on the delegate count. Getting 35% instead of 30% is not that impactful but getting 15% instead of 10% is huge.
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EPT
