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On September 29 2017 06:25 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2017 06:24 Artisreal wrote: Scruples against hurting people? Whereas an autonomous truck is just property. That's what Wegandi's mercenaries privatized police are for. I would actually laugh at a private security company accompanying autonomous vehicles. Maybe it even makes sense of you drive in a convoy. 20+ trucks guarded by one patrol car.
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Humans are not that smart, they shouldn't be harder to trick than an efficient system.
If your deterrent is having to be careful about the driver then it shouldn't be difficult to offer a deterrent of similar value
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On September 29 2017 06:30 Artisreal wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2017 06:25 GreenHorizons wrote:On September 29 2017 06:24 Artisreal wrote: Scruples against hurting people? Whereas an autonomous truck is just property. That's what Wegandi's mercenaries privatized police are for. I would actually laugh at a private security company accompanying autonomous vehicles. Maybe it even makes sense of you drive in a convoy. 20+ trucks guarded by one patrol car.
It's called platooning. You could run a dozen or four trucks with a security vehicle on both ends and probably drone air support.
We can't have more leisure time, either you find new ways to work or you die.
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Humans are pretty easy to trick compared to something that's connected 24/7 to a GPS and central control and that's constantly streaming surveillance, beams its location to the cops immediately on being stopped, etc etc. A drone and a massive truck are totally different things in terms of ease of attack.
Plus, obstacles on the road work fine on both humans and robots and would be the easiest way to do it anyway.
On September 29 2017 06:24 Artisreal wrote: Scruples against hurting people? Whereas an autonomous truck is just property. This is valid, but at the same time, no longer having to pay 1/3 of gross income on salaries frees up a lot of capital to beef up locks, insure stock etc etc. You'd be talking literal mad-max levels of societal breakdown and theft for them to end up behind on stock losses.
The real obstacles to automated trucks are the same as any automation: Is the technology safe? Will people accept that the technology is safe? Will the lobbyists and politicians accept the attendant loss of jobs?
To which the answers are: almost, not for a while, over their dead bodies.
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On September 29 2017 06:32 Nebuchad wrote: Humans are not that smart, they shouldn't be harder to trick than an efficient system.
If your deterrent is having to be careful about the driver then it shouldn't be difficult to offer a deterrent of similar value I completely disagree. First of all, criminals avoid human interaction because it that is what will get them caught. It is why your credit card might get frozen if you buy gas followed by a refundable planet ticket. Same with breaking into houses. Home invasion is uncommon. Because that is a quick way to confirm a card works and then get a lot of money with a single point of interaction. Break ins happen when people are away from extended periods of time, because criminals don't want to deal with humans, they just want stuff to sell. Systems are only as good as the people over seeing them. People are creative thinkers. Create a system with limited human oversight, people will find a way to rip it off. From 1-800 numbers to bulk shippers.
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Well, since you bring up bank cards, they're a pretty good parallel. Compared to cash, they're less secure in some ways, more secure in others, and much cheaper and more convenient to administer.
People made the arguments you're making now about bank cards 50 years ago, and internet banking 10 years ago. Nonetheless, they are everywhere and cash is vastly diminished in use.
Automated vehicles are very likely to do the same thing within... idk... 20 years.
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On September 29 2017 06:40 Belisarius wrote: This is valid, but at the same time, no longer having to pay 1/3 of gross income on salaries frees up a lot of capital to beef up locks, insure stock etc etc. You'd be talking literal mad-max levels of societal breakdown and theft for them to end up behind on stock losses.
This is probably the most important point, I was going to come to it but I probably should have lead with it.
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Bank card also created a whole new industry of fraud that we still are struggling with. The same with checks. And the way that is combated with human oversight. They took over, but created new industries around them. There is an entire industry that supports bank card infrastructure.
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I still don't know what you're arguing.
Will there be problems? Yes. Will those problems prevent automated goods transport from becoming standard? Almost certainly not.
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i think as mohdoo puts it automation is a "net good". but as a society we have a duty to mitigate the losses, so the net good can be net gooder.
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Shipping companies honestly won't care about a truck or two being highjacked a month. That's just shrinkage for them, and without the human element being threatened with the vehicle, it's actually a feasible corporate write-off.
"Drivers" that can go 24/7 from start to finish is a massive business advantage that a human element just can't really compete with.
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On September 29 2017 06:55 Belisarius wrote: I still don't know what you're arguing.
Will there be problems? Yes. Will those problems prevent automated goods transport from becoming standard? Almost certainly not.
That automation is a fatalistic bogyman that people use when discussion low income jobs being destroyed and never returning. New jobs will be created or in the case of the trucking industry, the job may change. The cashierless store will need a bunch of employees to prevent people from stealing stuff. There is no robot that can deal with the nightmare that is a public restroom. That when you bore down on the subject of automation elimination many jobs, it is tough to see all humans being removed from the equation.
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I'm not personally convinced it's a net good for society. I think we'll have to be very careful with it and I really don't have a lot of faith in our ability to navigate it given the current state of politics.
It is, however, an enormous net good for the bottom line of most companies, so arguing that it won't happen is silly.
It will happen. We need to work out how to deal with it.
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On September 29 2017 07:05 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2017 06:55 Belisarius wrote: I still don't know what you're arguing.
Will there be problems? Yes. Will those problems prevent automated goods transport from becoming standard? Almost certainly not.
That automation is a fatalistic bogyman that people use when discussion low income jobs being destroyed and never returning. New jobs will be created or in the case of the trucking industry, the job may change. The cashierless store will need a bunch of employees to prevent people from stealing stuff. There is no robot that can deal with the nightmare that is a public restroom. That when you bore down on the subject of automation elimination many jobs, it is tough to see all humans being removed from the equation. It's funny you should mention public restrooms. We have some of those already over here. You build the whole thing out of metal and you spray it down like a carwash after each use. You have one dude somewhere in the area on call for maintenance and troubleshooting, instead of 10 dudes constantly rotating through different blocks.
That's what automation looks like. Of course there will still be humans needed, but on average there will be less of them and they will be differently (and probably more highly-) skilled. If there weren't less of them, it wouldn't happen, because then there wouldn't be any financial incentive to automate in the first place.
Of course new jobs will emerge around automated transport. We will need stacks and stacks of engineers, programmers and logisticians, we will need repair crews, we will need guys to man charging stations and run interference.
Nobody is saying all humans will be removed from the equation. But almost none of the truckies themselves will become engineers, and only a fraction will be needed on crews. There will be a large population of people put out of work, many of whom will be unable to sufficiently reskill. We need to deal with that.
Calling it a bogeyman to belittle people worried about it is naive, just as acting like it wouldn't happen was also naive.
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https://www.samharris.org/podcast/item/the-fate-of-liberalism
Interesting podcast about how liberal has become a dirty word. Its a bit bashing of those on the left and Sam is especially dismissive of identity politics. Mark Lilla seems smart and raises some interesting points though, especially about how class based politics has disappeared and been replaced by an infinitely fragmented identity battle.
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So it clearly cost the tax payers more than a dime.
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On September 29 2017 07:08 Belisarius wrote: I'm not personally convinced it's a net good for society. I think we'll have to be very careful with it and I really don't have a lot of faith in our ability to navigate it given the current state of politics.
It is, however, an enormous net good for the bottom line of most companies, so arguing that it won't happen is silly.
It will happen. We need to work out how to deal with it.
It is definitively a net positive for society. With automation, the productivity per person increases. That means that there is more stuff being produced per person, and thus the average person has more stuff and a higher quality of life from a purely materialist viewpoint. Another positive is that automation tends to take over the shittiest and most boring jobs first. The easier it is to automate something, the more boring it is for a person to do that thing.
The problems, as always, lies in the distribution of that advantage. It is a hard problem, too. You need to find a way to distribute the profits from automation to the general population, as opposed to a small aristocrat class of robot owners. However, the people mostly pushing for automation are those robot owners, and they show no intention of sharing the proceeds with the people they are now enabled to fire. They also have a lot of money to influence politics with.
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I have a theory that Facebook, and Twitter don't really want to ban all bots and troll accounts as it helps inflate their user numbers.
Twitter is taking a hint from Facebook and handing over information to Congress about accounts that may have been used for malicious purposes or for misinformation around the 2016 Presidential elections. The company’s Vice President for Public Policy, Colin Crowell, met with staff from the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence about the issues the social media platform faced, according to a blog post from Twitter.
Last week Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced that his social media company would also be handing over in information to Congress about accounts that were found on the site and believed to be used for advertising during the election. Both companies have found accounts they believe were used for propaganda-like advertising.
Twitter’s blog post said that while the company won’t be able to divulge every detail of information it gives to the United States government it will try to be as transparent through the process as possible. Starting with the release of information Thursday.
Twitter said that of the more than 400 accounts found through Facebook’s review, Twitter found 22 corresponding accounts on its own site. The company said all of those accounts had either previously been suspended or were immediately after they were found.
Those 22 accounts led the company to another 179 related or linked accounts and the company also took action on those accounts which were found to be in violation of the social media platform’s rules. The company also pointed out that none of these accounts were registered advertisers on the site.
Twitter also handed over information about three Russia Today accounts that the US intelligence committee had previously identified as accounts that had allegedly sought to interfere with the election. These accounts were identified as having close ties to the Russian government. Early findings from Twitter show that the Russia Today accounts spent $274,100 in U.S. advertising during the 2016 election year and the accounts promoted more than 1,500 tweets that definitely or possibly targeted the U.S. news market.
These findings among others were handed over to the U.S. government and Twitter said, “This is an ongoing process and we will continue to collaborate with investigators.”
Since the election Twitter says it has made several changes to make the platform a safer place for users and is looking to continue making it a better place for users who would like more transparency. “ As patterns of malicious activity evolve, we’re adapting to meet them head-on,” said the blog post from Twitter. Already the company said it catches more than 3 million suspicious accounts every week, which is more than double what they were finding with their automated systems a year ago.
In addition to catching these accounts the company is working on automated means to find non-human activity patterns, cluster accounts, false positives and more. These attempts go hand in hand with efforts to detect human-directed accounts and content on the platform as well.
Some new features will be coming out over the next few weeks or months that will help increase the detection of “spammy and suspicious activity.”
Source
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On September 29 2017 07:47 Jockmcplop wrote:https://www.samharris.org/podcast/item/the-fate-of-liberalismInteresting podcast about how liberal has become a dirty word. Its a bit bashing of those on the left and Sam is especially dismissive of identity politics. Mark Lilla seems smart and raises some interesting points though, especially about how class based politics has disappeared and been replaced by an infinitely fragmented identity battle. Mark Lilla's been very good lately. So has Alan Dershowitz on the same topic. I'll be finishing this podcast tonight. It's pretty long.
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