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On September 29 2017 04:05 Gahlo wrote:
I think the reality of the fact that the near term goal of automation is to replace a good chunk of the fast food industry while we haven't even been able to reintegrate the coal industry is the stark issue here.
Very few have been willing to have the difficult conversation that some jobs just ain't coming back and that figuring out a roadmap for communities dependent on disappearing jobs is going to be a long and complicated process. So much easier to just blame new regulations and globalization.
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On September 29 2017 04:10 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2017 04:05 Gahlo wrote:
I think the reality of the fact that the near term goal of automation is to replace a good chunk of the fast food industry while we haven't even been able to reintegrate the coal industry is the stark issue here. Because the US started horribly late on the coal industry, and from the looks of it still hasn't started in many places.
Yep and the coal industry is relatively small. Coal is smaller than just Arby's. Yet, it's an industry that politicians are willing to at least give lip service too. The effect of doing something similar to fast food will just get "commie/socialist/delusional"-d down by establishment politics.
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The fatalist view of automation destroy jobs feels a simplistic and over optimistic. But I’m not sure it is going to eliminate at many jobs as people think. I still don’t have a robot mowing my lawn and that isn’t happening in the near future. No robot is going to clean my house, so I don’t know how they are going to make one that can clean an entire mall. Or pick up the garbage and repair sewer lines. It could be decades upon decades until we get mass produced robot cleaning assistants and cars. And then someone has to fix those.
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On September 29 2017 04:41 Plansix wrote:
The fatalist view of automation destroy jobs feels a simplistic and over optimistic. But I’m not sure it is going to eliminate at many jobs as people think. I still don’t have a robot mowing my lawn and that isn’t happening in the near future. No robot is going to clean my house, so I don’t know how they are going to make one that can clean an entire mall. Or pick up the garbage and repair sewer lines. It could be decades upon decades until we get mass produced robot cleaning assistants and cars. And then someone has to fix those.
Sounds like you are almost a decade behind technological development.
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United States43610 Posts
Robots definitely repair sewer lines
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On September 29 2017 04:44 mahrgell wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2017 04:41 Plansix wrote:
The fatalist view of automation destroy jobs feels a simplistic and over optimistic. But I’m not sure it is going to eliminate at many jobs as people think. I still don’t have a robot mowing my lawn and that isn’t happening in the near future. No robot is going to clean my house, so I don’t know how they are going to make one that can clean an entire mall. Or pick up the garbage and repair sewer lines. It could be decades upon decades until we get mass produced robot cleaning assistants and cars. And then someone has to fix those. Sounds like you are almost a decade behind technological development.
Are they $300 at Lowes and can be used by everyone across the US? Because I have been unable to buy a dope robot lawn mower and robot landscaper. I also need one to trim all the trees and not drop the branches on my power lines. The rumba is a pretty shitty vacuum cleaner.
I am not saying automation won’t change things. But like the Facebooks software solutions to moderation, I think it might run into the hard limits of reality pretty quickly.
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i mean roomba is a thing
i'd be a little more concerned about robot lawnmowers because they have blades, but i'm pretty sure they exist.
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On September 29 2017 04:48 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2017 04:44 mahrgell wrote:On September 29 2017 04:41 Plansix wrote:
The fatalist view of automation destroy jobs feels a simplistic and over optimistic. But I’m not sure it is going to eliminate at many jobs as people think. I still don’t have a robot mowing my lawn and that isn’t happening in the near future. No robot is going to clean my house, so I don’t know how they are going to make one that can clean an entire mall. Or pick up the garbage and repair sewer lines. It could be decades upon decades until we get mass produced robot cleaning assistants and cars. And then someone has to fix those. Sounds like you are almost a decade behind technological development. Are they $300 at Lowes and can be used by everyone across the US? Because I have been unable to buy a dope robot lawn mower and robot landscaper. I also need one to trim all the trees and not drop the branches on my power lines. The rumba is a pretty shitty vacuum cleaner. I am not saying automation won’t change things. But like the Facebooks software solutions to moderation, I think it might run into the hard limits of reality pretty quickly.
Quick google search gave me this: https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/best-robot-lawnmowers/2/
Cheapest listed is $600. Give it a few years.
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On September 29 2017 04:48 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2017 04:44 mahrgell wrote:On September 29 2017 04:41 Plansix wrote:
The fatalist view of automation destroy jobs feels a simplistic and over optimistic. But I’m not sure it is going to eliminate at many jobs as people think. I still don’t have a robot mowing my lawn and that isn’t happening in the near future. No robot is going to clean my house, so I don’t know how they are going to make one that can clean an entire mall. Or pick up the garbage and repair sewer lines. It could be decades upon decades until we get mass produced robot cleaning assistants and cars. And then someone has to fix those. Sounds like you are almost a decade behind technological development. Are they $300 at Lowes and can be used by everyone across the US? Because I have been unable to buy a dope robot lawn mower and robot landscaper. I also need one to trim all the trees and not drop the branches on my power lines. The rumba is an pretty shitty vacuum cleaner.
There is vested interest in making shitty, unreliable household robots though.. You have to get a new one when the technology improves.
Commercial use automation systems, however, are very different. They are extremely expensive and tend to need to last a long time. This means they have to be as reliable as possible, more reliable than a human operator, to make it worth the investment.
We aren't quite there yet in alot of ways, but when this happens it will be fairly rapid. I would say within 30 years it will be taking a sizeable chunk out of the labour market, both skilled and unskilled.
You really have to hope that the people deciding on school curricula can successfully work with influential people within the tech world to make sure education can stay ahead of the curve on this and come somewhere close to predicting and adapting to it.
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And just 2 years ago we didn't believe it was possible for a computer to beat the best humans at go.
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On September 29 2017 04:53 Gahlo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2017 04:48 Plansix wrote:On September 29 2017 04:44 mahrgell wrote:On September 29 2017 04:41 Plansix wrote:
The fatalist view of automation destroy jobs feels a simplistic and over optimistic. But I’m not sure it is going to eliminate at many jobs as people think. I still don’t have a robot mowing my lawn and that isn’t happening in the near future. No robot is going to clean my house, so I don’t know how they are going to make one that can clean an entire mall. Or pick up the garbage and repair sewer lines. It could be decades upon decades until we get mass produced robot cleaning assistants and cars. And then someone has to fix those. Sounds like you are almost a decade behind technological development. Are they $300 at Lowes and can be used by everyone across the US? Because I have been unable to buy a dope robot lawn mower and robot landscaper. I also need one to trim all the trees and not drop the branches on my power lines. The rumba is a pretty shitty vacuum cleaner. I am not saying automation won’t change things. But like the Facebooks software solutions to moderation, I think it might run into the hard limits of reality pretty quickly. Quick google search gave me this: https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/best-robot-lawnmowers/2/Cheapest listed is $600. Give it a few years.
Ok, that thing will likely look very cute rolling across the 5 square feet of flat lawn on my property it can handle.
And again, I don’t want to claim that automation won’t cause us to leap forward. But we still don’t have a commercially viable robot vacuum, which seems like the greatest invention in modern history. I can see it happening. But I also wonder if robotics is just going to remain in this middling, experimental stage. Or remain toys for the wealthy, but have no place in most people’s lives.
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The benefit that a robot can have for a corporation is not really comparable to the benefit it can have for you. If the robot that mows your lawn isn't ready yet, you're going to be mildly annoyed and mow your lawn. If the robot that can replace a job isn't ready yet, a corporation has to pay the salaries of all the people who do the job for a while longer.
We're going to get about as many robots as we can produce, and we're going to get them as fast as they can be produced.
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You're thinking kind of small scale here, it's not just robots that do manual labor that we consider automation. Almost anything that requires some sort of informational processing is going to be automated by programs that don't make human mistakes. We already see computers starting to replace relatively high paying jobs like lawyers and insurance agents. Low to mid level IT jobs and data entry are also low hanging fruit. Most low to mid tier programmers are kind of bad at their job, they will almost definitely be displaced by AI. These are a lot of the good jobs that we try to tell our kids to pursue that don't necessarily need exceptional talent.
And of course the big elephant in the room is our massive trucking industry, that employs millions of people whose only skill is being able to drive a truck.
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On September 28 2017 23:29 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On September 28 2017 15:21 Aquanim wrote:On September 28 2017 15:02 Danglars wrote:...
The conclusion also doesn't follow because you claim a false contrast between previous methods and blunt methods. You must go further and say that everything short of forcing people going about their daily lives to be deluged in identity politics and racial protest from sunup to sundown has been tried. Literally everything. You're taking this super broad so I have to dabble in larger themes too here. My argument was indeed very broad, I was attempting to establish a general framework for discussion. In particular I was not intending to ask in that post whether you believe that this anthem thing is the next reasonable escalation from what has come before, I was merely establishing that escalation in general in such a situation is justified. The next question is intended to tie that framework to reality more closely. Do you have any concrete examples of actions intended to combat the same kinds of societal problems that are being targeted by this anthem protest that have not been attempted and should have been before the anthem protest? I am aware that the answer to this question may be that it is unanswerable, in which case perhaps another angle of discussion can be explored. Trying to find common cause with other races to enact police reform and criminal justice reform is the big one. Wegandi did several mega posts detailing just that. There are far greater numbers of victims of police brutality in non-black demographics that are marginalized because this issue has been racialized. That ship is getting ready to sail with partisan infighting. If you dictate that you’re not looking for allies in this fight with wide opinions on solutions, you’re cutting off potential bases of support. And nothings being targeted by anthem protests. Targeting implies a focus, and Kaep’s quotes are decidedly unfocused. Now it’s just as much wanting Trump to butt out of the protest with his wildly unhelpful remarks as anything else.
The funny thing is I actually believe that you genuinely think this. You think "Trying to find common cause with other races to enact police reform and criminal justice reform" hasn't been tried.
And the last person taking you seriously doesn't know enough about the subject to know why that's ridiculously wrong.
I'm just impressed that you can say something so ridiculously foolish and think it's not plainly wrong.
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I mean the people who can't afford a robot to mow their lawn probably aren't paying landscapers either.
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Those damn Millennials robbing future kids of the opportunity of their first hard earned money by buying automated lawnmowers.
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haha, i've read the article before. otoh, you're not supposed to have dog poop in your house... i can see cat litter being possibly an issue, though maybe just set the roomba not to visit the litter box.
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Automation isn't the boggyman that people make it out to be. Its only going to stress the education and reintegration of different economies. The issue is people being shitty and not wanting to adjust to the new normal because change inherently causes fear and panic. Half the issues argued in this thread are probably caused by the fear and panic brought by change and the inability for people to sympathize with this.
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On September 29 2017 05:10 chocorush wrote:
You're thinking kind of small scale here, it's not just robots that do manual labor that we consider automation. Almost anything that requires some sort of informational processing is going to be automated by programs that don't make human mistakes. We already see computers starting to replace relatively high paying jobs like lawyers and insurance agents. Low to mid level IT jobs and data entry are also low hanging fruit. Most low to mid tier programmers are kind of bad at their job, they will almost definitely be displaced by AI. These are a lot of the good jobs that we try to tell our kids to pursue that don't necessarily need exceptional talent.
And of course the big elephant in the room is our massive trucking industry, that employs millions of people whose only skill is being able to drive a truck.
Sad that while capitalism helped usher in this potential for dramatic reductions in man-hours needed for tasks, it literally has no solution for what to do with the people when the work is done (besides letting them die).
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EPT
