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On February 06 2014 14:37 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Show nested quote +On February 06 2014 14:20 xDaunt wrote:On February 06 2014 13:59 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:This image comes to mind: ![[image loading]](http://www.mamieyoung.com/dailydawdle/Create%20a%20better%20world%20for%20nothing.jpg) A world run by Wind, Solar, Wave and even Geothermal... Rather than Coal, Oil etc. Is there a con here? Fucking over our economy and standard of living by eliminating cheap energy and easy transportation. No thanks. If you think an Oil based economy is a utopia then you'e in for a rude awakening.
Wake me up when scientists invent an energy source that effectively replaces fossil fuels. In case you haven't noticed, it doesn't exist yet.
On February 06 2014 14:51 zlefin wrote: Those aren't the numbers i'm seeing daunt, what i'm seeing is a consensus of well documented science; with the dissenting voices largely being people blatantly attempting to misrepresent the truth for money.
Actually, there's plenty of evidence to provide a sound basis for policy; and your assertion of the policies leading to utter doom and gloom is plain wrong, so please stop making it.
The only thing that's well-documented about the science is how much flux it has been in over the past fifty years. You're crazy if you think that it's all been figured out, or even sufficiently figured out to justify dramatic policy.
And please explain to me why it is wrong to say that the elimination of carbon emissions would lead to economic "doom and gloom?" Do you have any sense whatsoever of what that actually means?
On February 06 2014 15:11 Wegandi wrote:We're talking climate. It is not a philosophical exercise - it's an important distinction since you use it as a crux of your argument. Who cares if figuratively it is 'man made' or not. Does it matter if CO2 levels are as they are because of Volcanism, or because of Industrial Factories? After-all, we're talking conclusions based off variable data-points, no? In other words, what I am getting at is you can't claim a state of climate that is natural, and then call other states unnatural, because there is no such base line of 'natural'. The Earth has been all over the place in its climatological history. I'm pointing out your naturalistic fallacy. Anyways, I still find all this humorous. Let's also not forget to point out that underlying all of this is a presumption that mankind can actually control global climate change by adjusting its carbon emissions. Hilarious.
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On February 06 2014 14:37 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Show nested quote +On February 06 2014 14:20 xDaunt wrote:On February 06 2014 13:59 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:This image comes to mind: ![[image loading]](http://www.mamieyoung.com/dailydawdle/Create%20a%20better%20world%20for%20nothing.jpg) A world run by Wind, Solar, Wave and even Geothermal... Rather than Coal, Oil etc. Is there a con here? Fucking over our economy and standard of living by eliminating cheap energy and easy transportation. No thanks. If you think an Oil based economy is a utopia then you'e in for a rude awakening. xDaunt is late 20s, early 30s guy so by the time oil runs out he'll be long and safely dead.
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On February 06 2014 15:31 Sub40APM wrote:Show nested quote +On February 06 2014 14:37 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:On February 06 2014 14:20 xDaunt wrote:On February 06 2014 13:59 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:This image comes to mind: ![[image loading]](http://www.mamieyoung.com/dailydawdle/Create%20a%20better%20world%20for%20nothing.jpg) A world run by Wind, Solar, Wave and even Geothermal... Rather than Coal, Oil etc. Is there a con here? Fucking over our economy and standard of living by eliminating cheap energy and easy transportation. No thanks. If you think an Oil based economy is a utopia then you'e in for a rude awakening. xDaunt is late 20s, early 30s guy so by the time oil runs out he'll be long and safely dead. My grandkids (presuming I have them) will be dead, too.
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You're just not trying xdaunt. The elimination of carbon emissions is a long term goal, not short term. Noone competent advocates completely trashing the economy. If we had cheap fusion power, then the economy would barely even care about the elimination of carbon. Which is why the goal is to generate alternate power sources.
And you're just wrong. It's like people who complain that because of new diets/fads that nutrition isn't really well understood and it's all nonsense to disregard. You don't need to know all the details for broad strokes to be clear.
I think you're being combative and not interested in actual discourse, so I will decline to talk further on this topic, if you wanna go back to the other issues danglars mentioned a few pages ago that I could discuss more. That you think it hilarious and absurd that mankind can change the global climate or other global parameters is demonstrative to me.
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On February 06 2014 15:30 xDaunt wrote: Wake me up when scientists invent an energy source that effectively replaces fossil fuels. In case you haven't noticed, it doesn't exist yet.
Well we (Germany) aim to hit 80% renewal energy by 2050, and at the moment we're actually faster than planned. Sure Germany is not the US, but we're not exactly a small country either.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fullneed.jpg
"The red squares represent the area that would be enough for solar power plants to produce a quantity of electricity consumed by the world today, in Europe (EU-25) and Germany (De). (Data provided by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), 2005)"
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
renewables that are not always online has a lot of problem becoming the sole provider though, since they are not always online and can't reliably deliver peak power. need more nuclear
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On February 06 2014 16:18 oneofthem wrote: renewables that are not always online has a lot of problem becoming the sole provider though, since they are not always online and can't reliably deliver peak power. need more nuclear
Except that this is factually untrue. Your reasoning works like this "Uhh windmills, that sounds so unstable and hippie like, that can't be good, but nuclear energy , well that sounds so advanced, that has to be good!"
Some facts about nuclear energy: Fuel will only be price stable for a few more decades as demand will outgrow the production rate. The governments in most countries heavily subsidize nuclear energy. Nuclear energy can be pretty dangerous and the public has to pay for the dispose of nuclear waste. Nuclear energy is actually crazy expensive.
And as long as renewable energies are diversified enough there isn't anything unstable about it. The suns not always shining, but you also have on- and offshore wind power, geothermal energy and tidal power plants. With some conventional backup and sufficient storage capability it's perfectly fine.
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On February 06 2014 16:34 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On February 06 2014 16:18 oneofthem wrote: renewables that are not always online has a lot of problem becoming the sole provider though, since they are not always online and can't reliably deliver peak power. need more nuclear Except that this is factually untrue. Your reasoning works like this "Uhh windmills, that sounds so unstable and hippie like, that can't be good, but nuclear energy , well that sounds so advanced, that has to be good!" Some facts about nuclear energy: Fuel will only be price stable for a few more decades as demand will outgrow the production rate. The governments in most countries heavily subsidize nuclear energy. Nuclear energy can be pretty dangerous and the public has to pay for the dispose of nuclear waste. Nuclear energy is actually crazy expensive. And as long as renewable energies are diversified enough there isn't anything unstable about it. The suns not always shining, but you also have on- and offshore wind power, geothermal energy and tidal power plants. With some conventional backup and sufficient storage capability it's perfectly fine. I think he's referring to (futuristic) fusion? Fission is of course essentially on a par with oil in that it has a limited supply of fuel and creates environmentally harmful byproducts.
Also, the main issue with renewable sources is the storage medium . Sure wind is great, but in order to power a city grid (A city here is mostly wind powered) it needs to be continuous, so the wind turbines use fossil fuels to keep them going when the wind dies down. Solar has the same issue: it's only existant for less than half the day usually (we have a solar grid on our roof, it needs full sunlight to work, which is usually only 8-10 hours a day. In terms of energy storage, there's nothing practical available at the moment, even for small scale. Deep cycle batteries for a solar grid cost like 10k+ iirc for some people we know that aren't connected to the power grid, and they need to be replaced ever couple of years, and we know how lovely batteries are for the environment. That's just for a small energy conservative household.
Basically I'm addressing the fact that there is no practical form of "storage" at all for city power distribution.
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On February 06 2014 14:35 Wegandi wrote:Show nested quote +On February 06 2014 13:49 FallDownMarigold wrote: i'm going way out on an extremely long limb here, but perhaps it's possible that you/xDaunt/Wegandi don't really have a strong handle on the process of scientific research, which leads y'all to believe that climate science is likely some sort of profiteering sham, or something in which corruption is widespread, and something that is a liberal concoction aimed at whatever the hell it is the fear-mongering train is cruising toward this week
Or perhaps you're selectively biased based on the conclusions of said 'XYZ' science/scientist. How you can claim me calling weather more factual to be modeled via Chaos Theory (e.g. unpredictable) unscientific or ignorant in science, is ballsy, considering Chaos Theory is nothing, but science, and is a much better indicator of Weather than the non-sense hubris of wrong model after wrong model. There are too many variables, too many causal relationships, too many unknowns to ever come to a decisive conclusion of AGW let alone weather patterns five minutes from now. There's a reason meteorologists don't stake their lives on their claims - they know they're estimates, probabilities at best. They can't say for sure, if it's going to rain tomorrow...so they'll give you a 30% chance. Now, we expect 'climatologists' to tell you with certainty what the weather patterns and outcomes will be in XYZ years with XYZ variables? Don't make me laugh. It's hubris and arrogance to think otherwise. It's ok to say, we can't know, or I don't know, or it's unknowable. I bet you're going to tell me Chaos Theory is all BS and anti-scientific now....
speaking of hubris, isn't it sort of odd to preach against such a thing while in the same breath confidently refuting a field of science from some sort of imagined perspective of authority..? odd language and such aside, i'd suggest learning a bit more about climate science and the science process in general before discounting it as local weatherman-level shenniganry
i mean.. heh
in any case, i don't want to derail the political babble too much with this science stuff, so feel free to shoot me a rant about science/climate change/whatever if you'd like that
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
nucular fuel availability depends on the power cycle and i think with enough breeder reactors you can get them fairly unlimitedly. can harvest fuel from ocean too.
safety and cost issues are dependent on the defining of a safe radiation level threshold which is an issue of contention. but it is most probably defined too strictly and thus impose way higher cost than similar level of contamination/risk offered by a coal plant
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Afaik the main problem at the moments is no longer "creating/harvesting“ enough renewable energy, that would be pretty easy, if we are willing to pay the upfront costs. The actual Problem is just storing and transporting it (whiteout giant losses). There are various ideas to fight these problems. We got dams that use their unneeded energy output to refill themselves or a wather reservoires with "used" wather, iirc some solar farms heat up wather tanks (or some other material that holds energy well) during low consumption times…
These are actually exactly the same problem as we have with Oil and Gas… Only that Oil is rather easy and cheap to transport and store compared to „electricity“, „heat“ or whatever you want to harvest.
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On February 06 2014 12:03 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On February 06 2014 11:41 oneofthem wrote:On February 06 2014 10:35 Introvert wrote:On February 06 2014 10:21 Roe wrote:On February 06 2014 09:38 Introvert wrote:I was talking about hard statistics on increasingly frequent "extreme" whether, not a bunch of predictions. The whole point of statistics in science is to make predictions... there are a bunch of studies with figures between 20-40% increased effect of extreme weather effects from a range of past time periods. all you have is 'i am aware' or 'i think' which is not very persuasive But that's not what I was asking for. Someone made the statement along the lines of "climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme weather events." I want the hard data, not future predictions. Are extreme weather events actually happening more often? How reliably do we know this? So far as I'm aware, that claim is false. And increased effects, compared to past times? You mean they are comparing bad weather now to some event they know about from the past? That seems guesswork at best. Still doesn't contain the answer to the question I'm asking. if you actually read the abstract for the studies linked you'll see that they are indeed actually happened trends. and you've basically gone full young earth with the "seems guesswork at best." pls Don't make an absurd comparison. I'm allowed to to doubt people, especially with so much $$$ on the line. You think oil would lie to you, but the Greenies would not? pls. Besides, I think I've been rather fair. I've asked for a simple set of numbers, and no one can provide them because apparently they are unable to see the distinction I am making. I read them, and some of them said that temperatures were reaching new extremes, and some made a future prediction. They then tired to tie it in with weather. Still others tried to link particular events to Climate Change, by running more of their oh so reliable models. Point is, we've had fewer actual events (so far as we can tell due to the inability to gather sufficient data) of extreme weather, At most, you can argue it makes what events do occur worse. But that's still hard to maintain due to the lack of extreme weather, at least here in the US. I just hit something in Google and follwed a few links for this: http://www.gm.univ-montp2.fr/spip/IMG/pdf/Sabatier_QSRv2-3-1.pdfI can find a study for anything. But cold hard data says these events are NOT increasing in frequency.
I don't recall anybody saying that there is currently an increase in extreme weather events, and if there is that that can be contributed to man-made global warming. However, the studies talk about probabilities, as any good study should, and the odds are against us.
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes
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If the bloviators, I mean environmentalists, would invest in some of the next generation nuclear power options, they'd have much more of a leg to stand on. Enough thorium fuel for hundreds of years, nuclear waste at 1/100 of the mass previously expended. Dams, solar, geothermal, wind suffer from many problems, and one is definitely storing it for future use. The others include max power (energy delivered per unit time) application, diffuse energy can't be delivered in mass in the time-frame it's needed.
The fact that emphasis is given to wind and solar really hurts their cause. It's a ton of fluff. Learning stopped once they discovered fossil fuels are burnt then gone. I've talked to them (well, the ones not already embracing the MSRs LFTRs) and it's the same old--Will take a decade to implement, global warming is occurring all this time, lingering safety willies. If we'd started waking up ten years ago, we'd already have dozens of coal power plants replaced and offline. Fear is a powerful motivator and it persists; scientific advancement hasn't conquered as we rely on ancient designs.
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On February 06 2014 15:30 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On February 06 2014 14:37 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:On February 06 2014 14:20 xDaunt wrote:On February 06 2014 13:59 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:This image comes to mind: ![[image loading]](http://www.mamieyoung.com/dailydawdle/Create%20a%20better%20world%20for%20nothing.jpg) A world run by Wind, Solar, Wave and even Geothermal... Rather than Coal, Oil etc. Is there a con here? Fucking over our economy and standard of living by eliminating cheap energy and easy transportation. No thanks. If you think an Oil based economy is a utopia then you'e in for a rude awakening. Wake me up when scientists invent an energy source that effectively replaces fossil fuels. In case you haven't noticed, it doesn't exist yet. Show nested quote +On February 06 2014 14:51 zlefin wrote: Those aren't the numbers i'm seeing daunt, what i'm seeing is a consensus of well documented science; with the dissenting voices largely being people blatantly attempting to misrepresent the truth for money.
Actually, there's plenty of evidence to provide a sound basis for policy; and your assertion of the policies leading to utter doom and gloom is plain wrong, so please stop making it.
The only thing that's well-documented about the science is how much flux it has been in over the past fifty years. You're crazy if you think that it's all been figured out, or even sufficiently figured out to justify dramatic policy. And please explain to me why it is wrong to say that the elimination of carbon emissions would lead to economic "doom and gloom?" Do you have any sense whatsoever of what that actually means? Show nested quote +On February 06 2014 15:11 Wegandi wrote:We're talking climate. It is not a philosophical exercise - it's an important distinction since you use it as a crux of your argument. Who cares if figuratively it is 'man made' or not. Does it matter if CO2 levels are as they are because of Volcanism, or because of Industrial Factories? After-all, we're talking conclusions based off variable data-points, no? In other words, what I am getting at is you can't claim a state of climate that is natural, and then call other states unnatural, because there is no such base line of 'natural'. The Earth has been all over the place in its climatological history. I'm pointing out your naturalistic fallacy. Anyways, I still find all this humorous. Let's also not forget to point out that underlying all of this is a presumption that mankind can actually control global climate change by adjusting its carbon emissions. Hilarious.
It's not hilarious. In fact, it is the most likely explanation for the global warming. It is fine if you say it is political and economical suicide to try to stop global warming, that is POLICY, which we can agree or disagree about. However, global warming is as close to a scientific fact as you're likely to get, and the anthropogenic theory is the only one which sufficiently explains all of it.
So we HAVE changed global climate by adjusting our carbon emissions (upwards). Computer models indicate that by reducing emissions we can slow, or stop the warming. Of course, the models are not complete and there's plenty we don't know, but that's part of science.
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On February 06 2014 20:15 Danglars wrote: If the bloviators, I mean environmentalists, would invest in some of the next generation nuclear power options, they'd have much more of a leg to stand on. Enough thorium fuel for hundreds of years, nuclear waste at 1/100 of the mass previously expended. Dams, solar, geothermal, wind suffer from many problems, and one is definitely storing it for future use. The others include max power (energy delivered per unit time) application, diffuse energy can't be delivered in mass in the time-frame it's needed.
The fact that emphasis is given to wind and solar really hurts their cause. It's a ton of fluff. Learning stopped once they discovered fossil fuels are burnt then gone. I've talked to them (well, the ones not already embracing the MSRs LFTRs) and it's the same old--Will take a decade to implement, global warming is occurring all this time, lingering safety willies. If we'd started waking up ten years ago, we'd already have dozens of coal power plants replaced and offline. Fear is a powerful motivator and it persists; scientific advancement hasn't conquered as we rely on ancient designs. I don't oppose nuclear, and the large-scale deployment of nuclear reactors is actually happening as we speak. It just takes a long time to build.
Oh, it is also being spearheaded by the Russians, who aren't as paranoid about selling nuclear technology all over the world.
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On February 06 2014 20:19 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On February 06 2014 20:15 Danglars wrote: If the bloviators, I mean environmentalists, would invest in some of the next generation nuclear power options, they'd have much more of a leg to stand on. Enough thorium fuel for hundreds of years, nuclear waste at 1/100 of the mass previously expended. Dams, solar, geothermal, wind suffer from many problems, and one is definitely storing it for future use. The others include max power (energy delivered per unit time) application, diffuse energy can't be delivered in mass in the time-frame it's needed.
The fact that emphasis is given to wind and solar really hurts their cause. It's a ton of fluff. Learning stopped once they discovered fossil fuels are burnt then gone. I've talked to them (well, the ones not already embracing the MSRs LFTRs) and it's the same old--Will take a decade to implement, global warming is occurring all this time, lingering safety willies. If we'd started waking up ten years ago, we'd already have dozens of coal power plants replaced and offline. Fear is a powerful motivator and it persists; scientific advancement hasn't conquered as we rely on ancient designs. I don't oppose nuclear, and the large-scale deployment of nuclear reactors is actually happening as we speak. It just takes a long time to build. Oh, it is also being spearheaded by the Russians, who aren't as paranoid about selling nuclear technology all over the world. On a global scale, perhaps yes. In the US scene, woefully inadequate deployment and research.
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On February 06 2014 21:07 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On February 06 2014 20:19 Acrofales wrote:On February 06 2014 20:15 Danglars wrote: If the bloviators, I mean environmentalists, would invest in some of the next generation nuclear power options, they'd have much more of a leg to stand on. Enough thorium fuel for hundreds of years, nuclear waste at 1/100 of the mass previously expended. Dams, solar, geothermal, wind suffer from many problems, and one is definitely storing it for future use. The others include max power (energy delivered per unit time) application, diffuse energy can't be delivered in mass in the time-frame it's needed.
The fact that emphasis is given to wind and solar really hurts their cause. It's a ton of fluff. Learning stopped once they discovered fossil fuels are burnt then gone. I've talked to them (well, the ones not already embracing the MSRs LFTRs) and it's the same old--Will take a decade to implement, global warming is occurring all this time, lingering safety willies. If we'd started waking up ten years ago, we'd already have dozens of coal power plants replaced and offline. Fear is a powerful motivator and it persists; scientific advancement hasn't conquered as we rely on ancient designs. I don't oppose nuclear, and the large-scale deployment of nuclear reactors is actually happening as we speak. It just takes a long time to build. Oh, it is also being spearheaded by the Russians, who aren't as paranoid about selling nuclear technology all over the world. On a global scale, perhaps yes. In the US scene, woefully inadequate deployment and research. I think this is one of the only things I can really agree with you on. I think it probably has to do with dwindling funds for research from the govt. mixed with heavy-handed regulations in the EPA and the NRC.
I really wish Republicans would have picked up this issue as a way to promote nuclear instead of just denying the causes and effects. :/
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I agree, the point is exactly one of my problems with the GOP, constant criticism of Dem initiatives while offering no policy compromise of their own. Completely devoid of ideas.
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On February 07 2014 02:04 Wolfstan wrote: I agree, the point is exactly one of my problems with the GOP, constant criticism of Dem initiatives while offering no policy compromise of their own. Completely devoid of ideas. The GOP offers plenty of ideas on energy policy. The problem is that the Democrats won't consider anything that isn't solar or wind.
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On February 07 2014 02:15 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On February 07 2014 02:04 Wolfstan wrote: I agree, the point is exactly one of my problems with the GOP, constant criticism of Dem initiatives while offering no policy compromise of their own. Completely devoid of ideas. The GOP offers plenty of ideas on energy policy. The problem is that the Democrats won't consider anything that isn't solar or wind. Besides the fact that you're blatantly ignoring my response to your "wake me up when scientists blablabla.. post" , let me explain it to you like this: Nuclear power, coal and gas are finite, they're going to be gone at some point over the next few hundred years. Solar, thermal, wind and tide energy won't. So even if you think climate change isn't happening, which is stupid, at least every sane person should understand that at some point every country needs to switch from energy sources that are dependent on fossil fuels to energy sources that are not.
And the sooner we'll switch the better it will be for coming generations. Of course that would require long term decision making which US conservatives seem to be incapable off.
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