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On August 24 2017 05:43 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2017 05:36 mozoku wrote:On August 24 2017 05:30 Plansix wrote:On August 24 2017 05:28 mozoku wrote:On August 24 2017 05:26 Plansix wrote:On August 24 2017 05:24 mozoku wrote:
I was using "journalism" rather loosely to mean the news media organizations in general. I was under the impression oBlade was doing something similar.
Though I'm not quite as quick to absolve journalists of blame as Plansix, I think. It was a little striking to see how confident journalists' were of HRC's impending victory when her national polling advantage was within a fairly standard presidential election polling error, and I find it hard to believe it has nothing to do with the fact that 90% of journalists at such organizations are liberals/leftists.
Not sure how to fix that issue though, and I think it's far less of a problem than the misaligned incentives of news media organizations combined with modern day internet technology. Are you talking about the hosts of cable news networks, like CNN and MSNBC? I'm talking about the entire mainstream industry--TV and print/internet--(ignoring HuffPo, Breitbart, Infowars, etc.). I'm pretty sure even the WSJ was declaring an inevitable HRC victory. Yes, that is because the polling data said it was likely. There were 90000000 stories about how the data changed in the week leading up to the election. They literally wrote stories about what they and the polling missed. They wrote stories about their own mistake. I don't recall any election day stories writing about the changing poll numbers giving Trump a realistic shot though (besides 538). Shouldn't that have been newsworthy? Things with a 5% chance happen every day. If a model indicates a 1% chance of something happening, and it happens, the model was not wrong or even flawed.
Sure, but it's also not useful in the slightest (unless you are using it to cover hundreds of similar events).
And as kwark pointed out, media will use this model to "predict" the most likely outcome, which is just plain bad. There was very little honest reporting on what the models were actually predicting, the underlying assumptions, and how much power they had. 538 was basically the only one who did anything in that area, and even they had suggestive snake-shaped infographics that made it seem impossible for Clinton to lose, even if they came with lots of text pointing out the huge unknowns in their model.
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Yeah who would have noticed that the Debt Ceiling legislation would be buried in the V.A. Bill?
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Bet funding for the wall be in there too.
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If it wasn't for those meddling Democrats!
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United States44401 Posts
Wasn't Trump threatening to shut down the government? How is it now the fault of the Democrats if he does it?
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Trump has clearly gone from "it's the fault of the Democrats" to "it's McConnell and Ryan's fault" at this point, folks, try to keep up.
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This is the equivalent of putting a turd on a filet mignon and telling people to eat it because filet mignon is tasty.
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On August 24 2017 22:37 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Trump has clearly gone from "it's the fault of the Democrats" to "it's McConnell and Ryan's fault" at this point, folks, try to keep up.
It's also the media's fault.
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It's funny how you can tell he recently learned about this whole "add what you want to a bill everyone needs to pass" trick and now thinks he's some political maestro for recommending it for his wall.
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silly Trump hasn't yet learned that, no matter the circumstances, shutdowns and crises are always the Republicans fault!
Also that the voters don't care. that lesson doesn't stick eithrr.
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On August 24 2017 22:41 Doodsmack wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2017 22:37 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Trump has clearly gone from "it's the fault of the Democrats" to "it's McConnell and Ryan's fault" at this point, folks, try to keep up. It's also the media's fault.
Don't forget china, i bet they have something to do with that too.
And obviously transgenders in the military.
edit: bets on trump understanding what rating agencies will do to the US ratings if he goes through?
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United States44401 Posts
On August 24 2017 23:47 Introvert wrote:
silly Trump hasn't yet learned that, no matter the circumstances, shutdowns and crises are always the Republicans fault!
Also that the voters don't care. that lesson doesn't stick eithrr.
I mean they control Congress and the Presidency. At what point to they take responsibility?
What you have done here is ignored the facts that lead people to blame the Republicans and insist the Republicans are being blamed because the people blaming believe "crises are always the Republican's fault!" This is called a strawman argument. You have set up the premise that it is always the fault of the Republicans, regardless of the facts, and by disputing that premise you hope to prove that it is not the fault of the Republicans, regardless of the facts.
But the facts in this case are that the Republicans have both the power and the obligation to fix this. If it doesn't get fixed, it's on them. Not because they're Republicans, because they were elected to fix it.
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On August 24 2017 23:47 Introvert wrote:
silly Trump hasn't yet learned that, no matter the circumstances, shutdowns and crises are always the Republicans fault!
Also that the voters don't care. that lesson doesn't stick eithrr.
Things that happen while the Republicans control Congress and the White House are the Republicans' fault.
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Not that Trump will shut anything down - he's just setting himself up to look weak again.
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On August 24 2017 23:40 Mohdoo wrote:
It's funny how you can tell he recently learned about this whole "add what you want to a bill everyone needs to pass" trick and now thinks he's some political maestro for recommending it for his wall.
He clearly hasn't learned about poison pilling a bill, since that is what the wall funding will do.
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On August 24 2017 23:56 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2017 23:40 Mohdoo wrote:
It's funny how you can tell he recently learned about this whole "add what you want to a bill everyone needs to pass" trick and now thinks he's some political maestro for recommending it for his wall. He clearly hasn't learned about poison pilling a bill, since that is what the wall funding will do.
It really, really isn't rocket science though.
The turd/filet mignon analogy was quite fitting, it's pretty obvious (edit: for anyone who isn't an idiot, lets put it that way).
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On August 24 2017 23:52 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2017 23:47 Introvert wrote:
silly Trump hasn't yet learned that, no matter the circumstances, shutdowns and crises are always the Republicans fault!
Also that the voters don't care. that lesson doesn't stick eithrr. I mean they control Congress and the Presidency. At what point to they take responsibility? What you have done here is ignored the facts that lead people to blame the Republicans and insist the Republicans are being blamed because the people blaming believe "crises are always the Republican's fault!" This is called a strawman argument. You have set up the premise that it is always the fault of the Republicans, regardless of the facts, and by disputing that premise you hope to prove that it is not the fault of the Republicans, regardless of the facts. But the facts in this case are that the Republicans have both the power and the obligation to fix this. If it doesn't get fixed, it's on them. Not because they're Republicans, because they were elected to fix it.
nah when the gop is the minority they are expected to compromise (i.e. give up completely) and when they are in the majority they are also expected to compromise on almost everything. that's how it works. Democrats control nothing but I don't hear anyone asking that pressure be put on them.
A clean increase will go through, so it doesn't matter. not sure where this fake concern comes from, the gop have a fear of fighting over any of this.
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On August 24 2017 23:47 Introvert wrote:
silly Trump hasn't yet learned that, no matter the circumstances, shutdowns and crises are always the Republicans fault!
Also that the voters don't care. that lesson doesn't stick eithrr.
The conservatives in the house were the ones that started using the debt ceiling bargaining chip, rather than just authorizing it and paying the bills previously agreed upon. It isn't the democrats fault compromising is defeat for them.
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On August 24 2017 23:58 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2017 23:52 KwarK wrote:On August 24 2017 23:47 Introvert wrote:
silly Trump hasn't yet learned that, no matter the circumstances, shutdowns and crises are always the Republicans fault!
Also that the voters don't care. that lesson doesn't stick eithrr. I mean they control Congress and the Presidency. At what point to they take responsibility? What you have done here is ignored the facts that lead people to blame the Republicans and insist the Republicans are being blamed because the people blaming believe "crises are always the Republican's fault!" This is called a strawman argument. You have set up the premise that it is always the fault of the Republicans, regardless of the facts, and by disputing that premise you hope to prove that it is not the fault of the Republicans, regardless of the facts. But the facts in this case are that the Republicans have both the power and the obligation to fix this. If it doesn't get fixed, it's on them. Not because they're Republicans, because they were elected to fix it. nah when the gop is the minority they are expected to compromise (i.e. give up completely) and when they are in the majority they are also expected to compromise on almost everything. that's how it works. Democrats control nothing but I don't hear anyone asking that pressure be put on them.
That's a red herring if i've ever seen one, jeez.
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EPT
