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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 7975

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Buckyman
Profile Joined May 2014
1364 Posts
June 30 2017 20:39 GMT
#159481
Re: Seattle minimum wage
The study said fewer total hours, to the extent that it lowered the total income at the bottom despite the hourly wage hike. So if it's not a matter of unemployment, it's just an income cut for the entire unskilled labor crowd.

The zaid tweet is the expected split between aggregate and marginal outcomes. The average business pays its employees more, but maybe lays some off or reduces their hours. The marginal business leaves town.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15725 Posts
June 30 2017 20:41 GMT
#159482
On July 01 2017 04:28 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 01 2017 01:52 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:42 Nevuk wrote:
[image loading]

The enquirer story


Neither are married so how is it cheating. They are engaged to one another? I'm confused.


They were though haha.

I know Seattle's min wage came up, and the study sighted gave us no idea if businesses were making smart economic choices with their work scheduling or were throwing irrational and emotional fits. But I know it doesn't jive with the anecdotal experiences I've had and I saw this.



Seems like the wage isn't the problem, just that some people/businesses can't support a livable wage. And as was said when the minimum wage was originally created

Show nested quote +
It seems to me to be equally plain that no business which depends for existence on paying less than living wages to its workers has any right to continue in this country.

“By living wages, I mean more than a bare subsistence level — I mean the wages of a decent living.”



People commonly overlook the fact that modern day America is plagued with horrendously deficient small business owners who are only scraping by thanks to tax fraud. It's not like every one of these business owners are good at what they do. There are good and bad programmers, lawyers, technicians, plumbers, everything. But everyone just kind of assumes a small business owner is doing a decent job because boot straps. There is nothing remotely noble about trying to start your own business and I've never understood where this idea comes from.
semantics
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
10040 Posts
June 30 2017 20:49 GMT
#159483
More often than not legitimately small businesses that are run well are rare, it's hard for 1 person starting out to properly negotiate a commercial lease(yes you can negotiate terms not rent but a lot of other things), dealing with taxes, dealing with employee health insurance, let alone the basics of inventory and where you get your inventory, employing people and managing overhead; more often not they get tripped up by things they didn't expect. It's not required for you to actually be good at business to start a business.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23515 Posts
June 30 2017 20:55 GMT
#159484
On July 01 2017 05:49 semantics wrote:
More often than not legitimately small businesses that are run well are rare, it's hard for 1 person starting out to properly negotiate a commercial lease(yes you can negotiate terms not rent but a lot of other things), dealing with taxes, dealing with employee health insurance, let alone the basics of inventory and where you get your inventory, employing people and managing overhead; more often not they get tripped up by things they didn't expect. It's not required for you to actually be good at business to start a business.


I don't think Kwark's business is that "small" and iirc it was wasting money like a rapper at a strip club. I have the position that so much of our history is built on embracing white mediocrity and nepotism (Think George W. Bush or Trump) that a significant portion of all business is run by people who are mostly inadequate at dealing with the challenges and choices they face.

Besides that, there are as you mentioned, the very real challenges that stand in between someone who's got a really great idea, and turning it into a profitable business.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
chocorush
Profile Joined June 2009
694 Posts
June 30 2017 20:57 GMT
#159485
Small businesses are an important welfare source for people to inefficient to work in our economy that isn't quite as demonized as the other forms of welfare we have.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15725 Posts
June 30 2017 21:00 GMT
#159486
On July 01 2017 05:49 semantics wrote:
More often than not legitimately small businesses that are run well are rare, it's hard for 1 person starting out to properly negotiate a commercial lease(yes you can negotiate terms not rent but a lot of other things), dealing with taxes, dealing with employee health insurance, let alone the basics of inventory and where you get your inventory, employing people and managing overhead; more often not they get tripped up by things they didn't expect. It's not required for you to actually be good at business to start a business.


Sure, but how well someone is doing at something should certainly be considered when they say there is something they can't accommodate. When it comes to $15/hour, it is difficult to have sympathy for businesses that say they can't afford it, as if they can't for some divine reason. Just saying "I can't afford that" often makes people think the wage is the problem rather than the business. As a society, people often trust a small business owner when they say there's nothing they could do to accommodate a $15/hour wage. There is a society-wide, undue respect for small business owners as a whole.
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
June 30 2017 21:01 GMT
#159487
On July 01 2017 02:33 Simberto wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 01 2017 02:22 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:58 Mercy13 wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:26 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:13 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:10 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 00:53 farvacola wrote:
Yes, every plan proposed by Republicans is similarly terrible. "No matter what Republicans propose" is fatuous nonsense, to borrow a pedantic word.

You don't find it even a little funny that a full repeal vs a very expensive Obamacare 2.0 gets the same coverage score? I don't even like the bill and was rolling my eyes. To play off your post, you don't have to act like a humorlous bore even if it's politics.


Full repeal vs. replacement doesn't matter when they all delete the Medicaid insurance expansion in one way or another. Everything else is a drop in the bucket compared to that.

If anything, this just shows that none of their "2.0s" are actually designed to increase coverage in a meaningful way. Which is almost certainly the case since the authors of these bills don't care about the coverage numbers at all.

When you consider that health outcomes for people on Medicaid are provably no better than the uninsured, the value of coverage numbers related to expanded Medicaid coverage decays massively. And making insurance shittier for all makes nothing matter on a wide variety of fronts. Congratulations, you're covered, you don't qualify for subsidies, you're paying almost full price for your medication, and your plans more than twice as expensive with more than double the deductible! Join our statistic of coverage successes!


If you're referring to the Oregon study, you have to wildly misinterpret it's results to reach that conclusion.

Is the expansion the crucial measure saving millions from death? I wouldn't need to cite the study if the rhetoric wasn't already at the level of Medicaid expansion acting like the divine intervention of God. Those despicable individuals whose tweets several cited a few pages back remind me how detached the debate has become from solid grounding in the federal programs, the ACA changes, and the bills under consideration in the House (formerly) and Senate.


Don't turn this around. You claimed that "health outcomes on Medicaid are provably no better than uninsured". People have asked you to back that claim up, which shouldn't be that hard if it is "provably" the case. So far, you have failed to show any proof of anything. And now you try to shift the discussion away from that subject.

I had an assertion to the contrary thus far. One person wanted to shift to access, when I said health outcomes. If you want to read the study and ground your own personal objection rather than assertion, be my guest.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22005 Posts
June 30 2017 21:03 GMT
#159488
On July 01 2017 05:38 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
So it was Kushner who tried to 'convince' the show hosts of apologizing to Trump by holding a tabloid story above their head. Such a nice family. *plays the godfather music*

Some gut feeling tells me Trump might actually not have known about the blackmailing.
If he wasn't then I doubt he will be happy to hear his son-in-law and senior adviser get into trouble for blackmail. Esp if there is hard proof (god I hope there is).

It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
June 30 2017 21:06 GMT
#159489
On July 01 2017 06:00 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 01 2017 05:49 semantics wrote:
More often than not legitimately small businesses that are run well are rare, it's hard for 1 person starting out to properly negotiate a commercial lease(yes you can negotiate terms not rent but a lot of other things), dealing with taxes, dealing with employee health insurance, let alone the basics of inventory and where you get your inventory, employing people and managing overhead; more often not they get tripped up by things they didn't expect. It's not required for you to actually be good at business to start a business.


Sure, but how well someone is doing at something should certainly be considered when they say there is something they can't accommodate. When it comes to $15/hour, it is difficult to have sympathy for businesses that say they can't afford it, as if they can't for some divine reason. Just saying "I can't afford that" often makes people think the wage is the problem rather than the business. As a society, people often trust a small business owner when they say there's nothing they could do to accommodate a $15/hour wage. There is a society-wide, undue respect for small business owners as a whole.

But what about the areas where it could end business built on a lower minimum wage? And there are no other jobs to replace those lost wages. In the abstract, it is easy to say “well that business wasn’t viable, so it shouldn’t exist”. But what about when there is nothing to takes its place? There are some businesses that can’t support those wages.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22005 Posts
June 30 2017 21:07 GMT
#159490
On July 01 2017 06:01 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 01 2017 02:33 Simberto wrote:
On July 01 2017 02:22 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:58 Mercy13 wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:26 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:13 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:10 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 00:53 farvacola wrote:
Yes, every plan proposed by Republicans is similarly terrible. "No matter what Republicans propose" is fatuous nonsense, to borrow a pedantic word.

You don't find it even a little funny that a full repeal vs a very expensive Obamacare 2.0 gets the same coverage score? I don't even like the bill and was rolling my eyes. To play off your post, you don't have to act like a humorlous bore even if it's politics.


Full repeal vs. replacement doesn't matter when they all delete the Medicaid insurance expansion in one way or another. Everything else is a drop in the bucket compared to that.

If anything, this just shows that none of their "2.0s" are actually designed to increase coverage in a meaningful way. Which is almost certainly the case since the authors of these bills don't care about the coverage numbers at all.

When you consider that health outcomes for people on Medicaid are provably no better than the uninsured, the value of coverage numbers related to expanded Medicaid coverage decays massively. And making insurance shittier for all makes nothing matter on a wide variety of fronts. Congratulations, you're covered, you don't qualify for subsidies, you're paying almost full price for your medication, and your plans more than twice as expensive with more than double the deductible! Join our statistic of coverage successes!


If you're referring to the Oregon study, you have to wildly misinterpret it's results to reach that conclusion.

Is the expansion the crucial measure saving millions from death? I wouldn't need to cite the study if the rhetoric wasn't already at the level of Medicaid expansion acting like the divine intervention of God. Those despicable individuals whose tweets several cited a few pages back remind me how detached the debate has become from solid grounding in the federal programs, the ACA changes, and the bills under consideration in the House (formerly) and Senate.


Don't turn this around. You claimed that "health outcomes on Medicaid are provably no better than uninsured". People have asked you to back that claim up, which shouldn't be that hard if it is "provably" the case. So far, you have failed to show any proof of anything. And now you try to shift the discussion away from that subject.

I had an assertion to the contrary thus far. One person wanted to shift to access, when I said health outcomes. If you want to read the study and ground your own personal objection rather than assertion, be my guest.

I assumed you meant access because I didn't believe you stupid enough to go with the "we all die in the end, how can cutting healthcare kill people" bullshit Fox line.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
June 30 2017 21:15 GMT
#159491
On July 01 2017 03:34 Mercy13 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 01 2017 02:22 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:58 Mercy13 wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:26 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:13 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:10 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 00:53 farvacola wrote:
Yes, every plan proposed by Republicans is similarly terrible. "No matter what Republicans propose" is fatuous nonsense, to borrow a pedantic word.

You don't find it even a little funny that a full repeal vs a very expensive Obamacare 2.0 gets the same coverage score? I don't even like the bill and was rolling my eyes. To play off your post, you don't have to act like a humorlous bore even if it's politics.


Full repeal vs. replacement doesn't matter when they all delete the Medicaid insurance expansion in one way or another. Everything else is a drop in the bucket compared to that.

If anything, this just shows that none of their "2.0s" are actually designed to increase coverage in a meaningful way. Which is almost certainly the case since the authors of these bills don't care about the coverage numbers at all.

When you consider that health outcomes for people on Medicaid are provably no better than the uninsured, the value of coverage numbers related to expanded Medicaid coverage decays massively. And making insurance shittier for all makes nothing matter on a wide variety of fronts. Congratulations, you're covered, you don't qualify for subsidies, you're paying almost full price for your medication, and your plans more than twice as expensive with more than double the deductible! Join our statistic of coverage successes!


If you're referring to the Oregon study, you have to wildly misinterpret it's results to reach that conclusion.

Is the expansion the crucial measure saving millions from death? I wouldn't need to cite the study if the rhetoric wasn't already at the level of Medicaid expansion acting like the divine intervention of God. Those despicable individuals whose tweets several cited a few pages back remind me how detached the debate has become from solid grounding in the federal programs, the ACA changes, and the bills under consideration in the House (formerly) and Senate.


Are you referring to the Oregon study? If so I'm happy to cite it. It had it's limitations, but still reached some interesting conclusions:

The Oregon Experiment — Effects of Medicaid on Clinical Outcomes

Show nested quote +
Medicaid coverage did not have a significant effect on measures of blood pressure, cholesterol, or glycated hemoglobin.


I assume this is what you're referring to when you say that access to Medicaid has been proven to not improve health outcomes. As you are probably well-aware, these three measures are not the only way to measure health outcomes. It should be noted that the sample size of the study was too small to look at morbidity or cancer treatment, among other things.

The study did find that access to Medicaid increased the percentage of people who reported that their health had improved over the previous year, and reduced financial hardship from catastrophic medical expenses.

Keeping in mind that this study had a small sample size and was limited to one state, it is totally reasonable to have a discussion around it about whether the amount we spend on Medicaid is worth the identified benefits. It would also be great to discuss improvements which can be made to Medicaid so that the treatments provided do a better job of treating blood pressure, cholesterol, etc.

However the current debate isn't about the best way to provide healthcare to poor people. The current debate is over whether a tax cut for rich people should be paid for by taking health coverage away from millions of poor people. Conservatives supporting the healthcare bill (I know you're not in this group) don't give a shit about health outcomes.

Oh, is that the status of the current debate? Tax cuts for rich people should be paid by taking away health coverage from millions of poor people? I almost took you seriously. But if that's your game, the current debate is on making healthy people the slaves of the poor and infirm, and crashing the insurance markets while trying to dodge the blame. If you want to up it to Warren/Clinton/Sanders heights, you can add on making forcing free citizens to pay for the massacre of innocent women and children. I'm a little tired of the policy as atrocity game, but if you want everyone to emerge callous and flip it around every time, you're doing an excellent job.

I'd be happy to revisit and invest the time necessary into these long back and forths when Congress comes back from recess and the discourse is less reminiscent of Calling your political opponents kulaks. I'm already mad enough that I'll probably be forced to vote Trump again if this is the opposition's stance.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
June 30 2017 21:18 GMT
#159492
On July 01 2017 06:07 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 01 2017 06:01 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 02:33 Simberto wrote:
On July 01 2017 02:22 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:58 Mercy13 wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:26 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:13 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:10 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 00:53 farvacola wrote:
Yes, every plan proposed by Republicans is similarly terrible. "No matter what Republicans propose" is fatuous nonsense, to borrow a pedantic word.

You don't find it even a little funny that a full repeal vs a very expensive Obamacare 2.0 gets the same coverage score? I don't even like the bill and was rolling my eyes. To play off your post, you don't have to act like a humorlous bore even if it's politics.


Full repeal vs. replacement doesn't matter when they all delete the Medicaid insurance expansion in one way or another. Everything else is a drop in the bucket compared to that.

If anything, this just shows that none of their "2.0s" are actually designed to increase coverage in a meaningful way. Which is almost certainly the case since the authors of these bills don't care about the coverage numbers at all.

When you consider that health outcomes for people on Medicaid are provably no better than the uninsured, the value of coverage numbers related to expanded Medicaid coverage decays massively. And making insurance shittier for all makes nothing matter on a wide variety of fronts. Congratulations, you're covered, you don't qualify for subsidies, you're paying almost full price for your medication, and your plans more than twice as expensive with more than double the deductible! Join our statistic of coverage successes!


If you're referring to the Oregon study, you have to wildly misinterpret it's results to reach that conclusion.

Is the expansion the crucial measure saving millions from death? I wouldn't need to cite the study if the rhetoric wasn't already at the level of Medicaid expansion acting like the divine intervention of God. Those despicable individuals whose tweets several cited a few pages back remind me how detached the debate has become from solid grounding in the federal programs, the ACA changes, and the bills under consideration in the House (formerly) and Senate.


Don't turn this around. You claimed that "health outcomes on Medicaid are provably no better than uninsured". People have asked you to back that claim up, which shouldn't be that hard if it is "provably" the case. So far, you have failed to show any proof of anything. And now you try to shift the discussion away from that subject.

I had an assertion to the contrary thus far. One person wanted to shift to access, when I said health outcomes. If you want to read the study and ground your own personal objection rather than assertion, be my guest.

I assumed you meant access because I didn't believe you stupid enough to go with the "we all die in the end, how can cutting healthcare kill people" bullshit Fox line.

If access is the only term that matters, our education system is the world's envy. I might give hardcore Fox bullshitters a higher ranking if statistics for you reduces to the only stats you want to pretend matter. But I have a very low opinion of Fox so I don't think I'm quite there yet.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
June 30 2017 21:19 GMT
#159493
On July 01 2017 06:15 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 01 2017 03:34 Mercy13 wrote:
On July 01 2017 02:22 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:58 Mercy13 wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:26 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:13 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:10 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 00:53 farvacola wrote:
Yes, every plan proposed by Republicans is similarly terrible. "No matter what Republicans propose" is fatuous nonsense, to borrow a pedantic word.

You don't find it even a little funny that a full repeal vs a very expensive Obamacare 2.0 gets the same coverage score? I don't even like the bill and was rolling my eyes. To play off your post, you don't have to act like a humorlous bore even if it's politics.


Full repeal vs. replacement doesn't matter when they all delete the Medicaid insurance expansion in one way or another. Everything else is a drop in the bucket compared to that.

If anything, this just shows that none of their "2.0s" are actually designed to increase coverage in a meaningful way. Which is almost certainly the case since the authors of these bills don't care about the coverage numbers at all.

When you consider that health outcomes for people on Medicaid are provably no better than the uninsured, the value of coverage numbers related to expanded Medicaid coverage decays massively. And making insurance shittier for all makes nothing matter on a wide variety of fronts. Congratulations, you're covered, you don't qualify for subsidies, you're paying almost full price for your medication, and your plans more than twice as expensive with more than double the deductible! Join our statistic of coverage successes!


If you're referring to the Oregon study, you have to wildly misinterpret it's results to reach that conclusion.

Is the expansion the crucial measure saving millions from death? I wouldn't need to cite the study if the rhetoric wasn't already at the level of Medicaid expansion acting like the divine intervention of God. Those despicable individuals whose tweets several cited a few pages back remind me how detached the debate has become from solid grounding in the federal programs, the ACA changes, and the bills under consideration in the House (formerly) and Senate.


Are you referring to the Oregon study? If so I'm happy to cite it. It had it's limitations, but still reached some interesting conclusions:

The Oregon Experiment — Effects of Medicaid on Clinical Outcomes

Medicaid coverage did not have a significant effect on measures of blood pressure, cholesterol, or glycated hemoglobin.


I assume this is what you're referring to when you say that access to Medicaid has been proven to not improve health outcomes. As you are probably well-aware, these three measures are not the only way to measure health outcomes. It should be noted that the sample size of the study was too small to look at morbidity or cancer treatment, among other things.

The study did find that access to Medicaid increased the percentage of people who reported that their health had improved over the previous year, and reduced financial hardship from catastrophic medical expenses.

Keeping in mind that this study had a small sample size and was limited to one state, it is totally reasonable to have a discussion around it about whether the amount we spend on Medicaid is worth the identified benefits. It would also be great to discuss improvements which can be made to Medicaid so that the treatments provided do a better job of treating blood pressure, cholesterol, etc.

However the current debate isn't about the best way to provide healthcare to poor people. The current debate is over whether a tax cut for rich people should be paid for by taking health coverage away from millions of poor people. Conservatives supporting the healthcare bill (I know you're not in this group) don't give a shit about health outcomes.

Oh, is that the status of the current debate? Tax cuts for rich people should be paid by taking away health coverage from millions of poor people? I almost took you seriously. But if that's your game, the current debate is on making healthy people the slaves of the poor and infirm, and crashing the insurance markets while trying to dodge the blame. If you want to up it to Warren/Clinton/Sanders heights, you can add on making forcing free citizens to pay for the massacre of innocent women and children. I'm a little tired of the policy as atrocity game, but if you want everyone to emerge callous and flip it around every time, you're doing an excellent job.

I'd be happy to revisit and invest the time necessary into these long back and forths when Congress comes back from recess and the discourse is less reminiscent of Calling your political opponents kulaks. I'm already mad enough that I'll probably be forced to vote Trump again if this is the opposition's stance.

That is what the bill does. It cuts taxes for the rich and cuts Medicaid. It is a Medicaid cut because Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski say it is a Medicaid cut. And their opinion on if it is or isn’t a cut are the only opinions that matter.

If you don’t want to discuss the bill the way that congress is framing it, then you should likely bow out. If you want to vote for Trump again in a huff, you can do that too I guess.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
WolfintheSheep
Profile Joined June 2011
Canada14127 Posts
June 30 2017 21:20 GMT
#159494
On July 01 2017 06:00 Mohdoo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 01 2017 05:49 semantics wrote:
More often than not legitimately small businesses that are run well are rare, it's hard for 1 person starting out to properly negotiate a commercial lease(yes you can negotiate terms not rent but a lot of other things), dealing with taxes, dealing with employee health insurance, let alone the basics of inventory and where you get your inventory, employing people and managing overhead; more often not they get tripped up by things they didn't expect. It's not required for you to actually be good at business to start a business.


Sure, but how well someone is doing at something should certainly be considered when they say there is something they can't accommodate. When it comes to $15/hour, it is difficult to have sympathy for businesses that say they can't afford it, as if they can't for some divine reason. Just saying "I can't afford that" often makes people think the wage is the problem rather than the business. As a society, people often trust a small business owner when they say there's nothing they could do to accommodate a $15/hour wage. There is a society-wide, undue respect for small business owners as a whole.

Small businesses shutting down was the explanation for the newly unemployed workers in Seattle (or the lost income overall for the lower class). No one was saying "feel bad for the poor business owners". So, strawman and all that.
Average means I'm better than half of you.
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
June 30 2017 21:25 GMT
#159495
On July 01 2017 05:39 Buckyman wrote:
Re: Seattle minimum wage
The study said fewer total hours, to the extent that it lowered the total income at the bottom despite the hourly wage hike. So if it's not a matter of unemployment, it's just an income cut for the entire unskilled labor crowd.

The zaid tweet is the expected split between aggregate and marginal outcomes. The average business pays its employees more, but maybe lays some off or reduces their hours. The marginal business leaves town.

Politically, are we to the point of backlash against this style of policies?
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
June 30 2017 21:29 GMT
#159496
On July 01 2017 06:19 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 01 2017 06:15 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 03:34 Mercy13 wrote:
On July 01 2017 02:22 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:58 Mercy13 wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:26 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:13 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:10 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 00:53 farvacola wrote:
Yes, every plan proposed by Republicans is similarly terrible. "No matter what Republicans propose" is fatuous nonsense, to borrow a pedantic word.

You don't find it even a little funny that a full repeal vs a very expensive Obamacare 2.0 gets the same coverage score? I don't even like the bill and was rolling my eyes. To play off your post, you don't have to act like a humorlous bore even if it's politics.


Full repeal vs. replacement doesn't matter when they all delete the Medicaid insurance expansion in one way or another. Everything else is a drop in the bucket compared to that.

If anything, this just shows that none of their "2.0s" are actually designed to increase coverage in a meaningful way. Which is almost certainly the case since the authors of these bills don't care about the coverage numbers at all.

When you consider that health outcomes for people on Medicaid are provably no better than the uninsured, the value of coverage numbers related to expanded Medicaid coverage decays massively. And making insurance shittier for all makes nothing matter on a wide variety of fronts. Congratulations, you're covered, you don't qualify for subsidies, you're paying almost full price for your medication, and your plans more than twice as expensive with more than double the deductible! Join our statistic of coverage successes!


If you're referring to the Oregon study, you have to wildly misinterpret it's results to reach that conclusion.

Is the expansion the crucial measure saving millions from death? I wouldn't need to cite the study if the rhetoric wasn't already at the level of Medicaid expansion acting like the divine intervention of God. Those despicable individuals whose tweets several cited a few pages back remind me how detached the debate has become from solid grounding in the federal programs, the ACA changes, and the bills under consideration in the House (formerly) and Senate.


Are you referring to the Oregon study? If so I'm happy to cite it. It had it's limitations, but still reached some interesting conclusions:

The Oregon Experiment — Effects of Medicaid on Clinical Outcomes

Medicaid coverage did not have a significant effect on measures of blood pressure, cholesterol, or glycated hemoglobin.


I assume this is what you're referring to when you say that access to Medicaid has been proven to not improve health outcomes. As you are probably well-aware, these three measures are not the only way to measure health outcomes. It should be noted that the sample size of the study was too small to look at morbidity or cancer treatment, among other things.

The study did find that access to Medicaid increased the percentage of people who reported that their health had improved over the previous year, and reduced financial hardship from catastrophic medical expenses.

Keeping in mind that this study had a small sample size and was limited to one state, it is totally reasonable to have a discussion around it about whether the amount we spend on Medicaid is worth the identified benefits. It would also be great to discuss improvements which can be made to Medicaid so that the treatments provided do a better job of treating blood pressure, cholesterol, etc.

However the current debate isn't about the best way to provide healthcare to poor people. The current debate is over whether a tax cut for rich people should be paid for by taking health coverage away from millions of poor people. Conservatives supporting the healthcare bill (I know you're not in this group) don't give a shit about health outcomes.

Oh, is that the status of the current debate? Tax cuts for rich people should be paid by taking away health coverage from millions of poor people? I almost took you seriously. But if that's your game, the current debate is on making healthy people the slaves of the poor and infirm, and crashing the insurance markets while trying to dodge the blame. If you want to up it to Warren/Clinton/Sanders heights, you can add on making forcing free citizens to pay for the massacre of innocent women and children. I'm a little tired of the policy as atrocity game, but if you want everyone to emerge callous and flip it around every time, you're doing an excellent job.

I'd be happy to revisit and invest the time necessary into these long back and forths when Congress comes back from recess and the discourse is less reminiscent of Calling your political opponents kulaks. I'm already mad enough that I'll probably be forced to vote Trump again if this is the opposition's stance.

That is what the bill does. It cuts taxes for the rich and cuts Medicaid. It is a Medicaid cut because Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski say it is a Medicaid cut. And their opinion on if it is or isn’t a cut are the only opinions that matter.

If you don’t want to discuss the bill the way that congress is framing it, then you should likely bow out. If you want to vote for Trump again in a huff, you can do that too I guess.

That's not what the bill does, not even close, but at this point it's all rhetoric and no fact so you can pick and choose what hackneyed takeaway you want to make a fair characterization. I offered turning the healthy into slaves, which is about as equally fair of a classification of the ACA as Mercy's of the Senate bill. If you're in favor of slavery, you should likely bow out.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
June 30 2017 21:32 GMT
#159497
On July 01 2017 06:29 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 01 2017 06:19 Plansix wrote:
On July 01 2017 06:15 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 03:34 Mercy13 wrote:
On July 01 2017 02:22 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:58 Mercy13 wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:26 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:13 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:10 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 00:53 farvacola wrote:
Yes, every plan proposed by Republicans is similarly terrible. "No matter what Republicans propose" is fatuous nonsense, to borrow a pedantic word.

You don't find it even a little funny that a full repeal vs a very expensive Obamacare 2.0 gets the same coverage score? I don't even like the bill and was rolling my eyes. To play off your post, you don't have to act like a humorlous bore even if it's politics.


Full repeal vs. replacement doesn't matter when they all delete the Medicaid insurance expansion in one way or another. Everything else is a drop in the bucket compared to that.

If anything, this just shows that none of their "2.0s" are actually designed to increase coverage in a meaningful way. Which is almost certainly the case since the authors of these bills don't care about the coverage numbers at all.

When you consider that health outcomes for people on Medicaid are provably no better than the uninsured, the value of coverage numbers related to expanded Medicaid coverage decays massively. And making insurance shittier for all makes nothing matter on a wide variety of fronts. Congratulations, you're covered, you don't qualify for subsidies, you're paying almost full price for your medication, and your plans more than twice as expensive with more than double the deductible! Join our statistic of coverage successes!


If you're referring to the Oregon study, you have to wildly misinterpret it's results to reach that conclusion.

Is the expansion the crucial measure saving millions from death? I wouldn't need to cite the study if the rhetoric wasn't already at the level of Medicaid expansion acting like the divine intervention of God. Those despicable individuals whose tweets several cited a few pages back remind me how detached the debate has become from solid grounding in the federal programs, the ACA changes, and the bills under consideration in the House (formerly) and Senate.


Are you referring to the Oregon study? If so I'm happy to cite it. It had it's limitations, but still reached some interesting conclusions:

The Oregon Experiment — Effects of Medicaid on Clinical Outcomes

Medicaid coverage did not have a significant effect on measures of blood pressure, cholesterol, or glycated hemoglobin.


I assume this is what you're referring to when you say that access to Medicaid has been proven to not improve health outcomes. As you are probably well-aware, these three measures are not the only way to measure health outcomes. It should be noted that the sample size of the study was too small to look at morbidity or cancer treatment, among other things.

The study did find that access to Medicaid increased the percentage of people who reported that their health had improved over the previous year, and reduced financial hardship from catastrophic medical expenses.

Keeping in mind that this study had a small sample size and was limited to one state, it is totally reasonable to have a discussion around it about whether the amount we spend on Medicaid is worth the identified benefits. It would also be great to discuss improvements which can be made to Medicaid so that the treatments provided do a better job of treating blood pressure, cholesterol, etc.

However the current debate isn't about the best way to provide healthcare to poor people. The current debate is over whether a tax cut for rich people should be paid for by taking health coverage away from millions of poor people. Conservatives supporting the healthcare bill (I know you're not in this group) don't give a shit about health outcomes.

Oh, is that the status of the current debate? Tax cuts for rich people should be paid by taking away health coverage from millions of poor people? I almost took you seriously. But if that's your game, the current debate is on making healthy people the slaves of the poor and infirm, and crashing the insurance markets while trying to dodge the blame. If you want to up it to Warren/Clinton/Sanders heights, you can add on making forcing free citizens to pay for the massacre of innocent women and children. I'm a little tired of the policy as atrocity game, but if you want everyone to emerge callous and flip it around every time, you're doing an excellent job.

I'd be happy to revisit and invest the time necessary into these long back and forths when Congress comes back from recess and the discourse is less reminiscent of Calling your political opponents kulaks. I'm already mad enough that I'll probably be forced to vote Trump again if this is the opposition's stance.

That is what the bill does. It cuts taxes for the rich and cuts Medicaid. It is a Medicaid cut because Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski say it is a Medicaid cut. And their opinion on if it is or isn’t a cut are the only opinions that matter.

If you don’t want to discuss the bill the way that congress is framing it, then you should likely bow out. If you want to vote for Trump again in a huff, you can do that too I guess.

That's not what the bill does, not even close, but at this point it's all rhetoric and no fact so you can pick and choose what hackneyed takeaway you want to make a fair characterization. I offered turning the healthy into slaves, which is about as equally fair of a classification of the ACA as Mercy's of the Senate bill. If you're in favor of slavery, you should likely bow out.

It is clear that your interpretation of the bill does not line up with how the swing vote members of the senate are talking about it. I agree with your assessment that further discussion of the bill is useless due to that fact.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15725 Posts
June 30 2017 21:39 GMT
#159498
On July 01 2017 06:01 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 01 2017 02:33 Simberto wrote:
On July 01 2017 02:22 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:58 Mercy13 wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:26 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:13 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On July 01 2017 01:10 Danglars wrote:
On July 01 2017 00:53 farvacola wrote:
Yes, every plan proposed by Republicans is similarly terrible. "No matter what Republicans propose" is fatuous nonsense, to borrow a pedantic word.

You don't find it even a little funny that a full repeal vs a very expensive Obamacare 2.0 gets the same coverage score? I don't even like the bill and was rolling my eyes. To play off your post, you don't have to act like a humorlous bore even if it's politics.


Full repeal vs. replacement doesn't matter when they all delete the Medicaid insurance expansion in one way or another. Everything else is a drop in the bucket compared to that.

If anything, this just shows that none of their "2.0s" are actually designed to increase coverage in a meaningful way. Which is almost certainly the case since the authors of these bills don't care about the coverage numbers at all.

When you consider that health outcomes for people on Medicaid are provably no better than the uninsured, the value of coverage numbers related to expanded Medicaid coverage decays massively. And making insurance shittier for all makes nothing matter on a wide variety of fronts. Congratulations, you're covered, you don't qualify for subsidies, you're paying almost full price for your medication, and your plans more than twice as expensive with more than double the deductible! Join our statistic of coverage successes!


If you're referring to the Oregon study, you have to wildly misinterpret it's results to reach that conclusion.

Is the expansion the crucial measure saving millions from death? I wouldn't need to cite the study if the rhetoric wasn't already at the level of Medicaid expansion acting like the divine intervention of God. Those despicable individuals whose tweets several cited a few pages back remind me how detached the debate has become from solid grounding in the federal programs, the ACA changes, and the bills under consideration in the House (formerly) and Senate.


Don't turn this around. You claimed that "health outcomes on Medicaid are provably no better than uninsured". People have asked you to back that claim up, which shouldn't be that hard if it is "provably" the case. So far, you have failed to show any proof of anything. And now you try to shift the discussion away from that subject.

I had an assertion to the contrary thus far. One person wanted to shift to access, when I said health outcomes. If you want to read the study and ground your own personal objection rather than assertion, be my guest.


There's also the fact that the study in question does not exactly account for everything. The big, big, big issue is the fact that people without insurance are hesitant to get care. I feel cheesy "playing this card", but my father in law ended up passing away from a treatable form of cancer because he didn't want to incur the huge cost of going to the doctor. Did he have every opportunity to get care? Absolutely. But this is sadly very common.

People being afraid of the cost of care, then dying because of it, when the whole thing could have been prevented, is an enormous cost to not just a family but society as a whole. Healthcare costs as a whole are larger when someone dies of cancer rather than being treated for cancer.

Do you not see this dynamic as an issue? I am certain I am not the only one who knows someone who didn't want to incur medical costs and got severely burned for it.
On_Slaught
Profile Joined August 2008
United States12190 Posts
June 30 2017 21:39 GMT
#159499
On July 01 2017 06:03 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 01 2017 05:38 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
So it was Kushner who tried to 'convince' the show hosts of apologizing to Trump by holding a tabloid story above their head. Such a nice family. *plays the godfather music*

Some gut feeling tells me Trump might actually not have known about the blackmailing.
If he wasn't then I doubt he will be happy to hear his son-in-law and senior adviser get into trouble for blackmail. Esp if there is hard proof (god I hope there is).



Might have thought this until he tweeted about them calling asking him to kill the story. Makes no sense for him to say that if he knew nothing.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23515 Posts
June 30 2017 21:41 GMT
#159500
On July 01 2017 06:06 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 01 2017 06:00 Mohdoo wrote:
On July 01 2017 05:49 semantics wrote:
More often than not legitimately small businesses that are run well are rare, it's hard for 1 person starting out to properly negotiate a commercial lease(yes you can negotiate terms not rent but a lot of other things), dealing with taxes, dealing with employee health insurance, let alone the basics of inventory and where you get your inventory, employing people and managing overhead; more often not they get tripped up by things they didn't expect. It's not required for you to actually be good at business to start a business.


Sure, but how well someone is doing at something should certainly be considered when they say there is something they can't accommodate. When it comes to $15/hour, it is difficult to have sympathy for businesses that say they can't afford it, as if they can't for some divine reason. Just saying "I can't afford that" often makes people think the wage is the problem rather than the business. As a society, people often trust a small business owner when they say there's nothing they could do to accommodate a $15/hour wage. There is a society-wide, undue respect for small business owners as a whole.

But what about the areas where it could end business built on a lower minimum wage? And there are no other jobs to replace those lost wages. In the abstract, it is easy to say “well that business wasn’t viable, so it shouldn’t exist”. But what about when there is nothing to takes its place? There are some businesses that can’t support those wages.


If we insist that because a place was somewhere to live before, that it should be in perpetuity, economics be damned, then there are more effective welfare programs than ones that blindly subsidize businesses that can't support themselves and their employees.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
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