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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Wulfey_LA
Profile Joined April 2017
932 Posts
April 13 2017 17:59 GMT
#146701
On April 13 2017 02:11 Wulfey_LA wrote:
The problem will be that in 3 weeks more #TrumpRussia stories will come out, more campaign crones will testify, and more legislation will fail. What happens then and Trump feels bad again? You know he will go back for the high he got off those missiles. Trump's insecurity is boundless. This will put the USA into a positive feedback loop of escalation with Russia in Syria.


Time to update this. Trump will be running a week by week bombing campaign to get a nice bombing headline going before every weekend of golf.

GCHQ first became aware in late 2015 of suspicious “interactions” between figures connected to Trump and known or suspected Russian agents, a source close to UK intelligence said. This intelligence was passed to the US as part of a routine exchange of information, they added.

Over the next six months, until summer 2016, a number of western agencies shared further information on contacts between Trump’s inner circle and Russians, sources said.


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/13/british-spies-first-to-spot-trump-team-links-russia
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
April 13 2017 18:06 GMT
#146702
On April 14 2017 02:59 Wulfey_LA wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 13 2017 02:11 Wulfey_LA wrote:
The problem will be that in 3 weeks more #TrumpRussia stories will come out, more campaign crones will testify, and more legislation will fail. What happens then and Trump feels bad again? You know he will go back for the high he got off those missiles. Trump's insecurity is boundless. This will put the USA into a positive feedback loop of escalation with Russia in Syria.


Time to update this. Trump will be running a week by week bombing campaign to get a nice bombing headline going before every weekend of golf.

Maybe he can start bombing golf fields to put the two together?
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Krikkitone
Profile Joined April 2009
United States1451 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-13 18:11:57
April 13 2017 18:07 GMT
#146703
On April 14 2017 01:56 Plansix wrote:
It isn't even a bomb meant for hard targets like bunkers or mountains. But I'm sure they will be able to justify dropping it in that area and say it did "massive damage".


"Terrible, terrible damage"
On April 14 2017 03:06 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 14 2017 02:59 Wulfey_LA wrote:
On April 13 2017 02:11 Wulfey_LA wrote:
The problem will be that in 3 weeks more #TrumpRussia stories will come out, more campaign crones will testify, and more legislation will fail. What happens then and Trump feels bad again? You know he will go back for the high he got off those missiles. Trump's insecurity is boundless. This will put the USA into a positive feedback loop of escalation with Russia in Syria.


Time to update this. Trump will be running a week by week bombing campaign to get a nice bombing headline going before every weekend of golf.

Maybe he can start bombing golf fields to put the two together?


How else to help our UK allies fight off the Scottish separatists (the US Republican Party knows how to deal with Separatists... the British never quite figured it out)
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
April 13 2017 18:13 GMT
#146704
You know, I just realized something. This bombing has a pretty hilarious "if we have nuclear weapons, why can't we use them?" vibe to it. It's not a nuke but it's the closest the clown can get without triggering MAD.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Wulfey_LA
Profile Joined April 2017
932 Posts
April 13 2017 18:27 GMT
#146705
What bothers me is how hard it is to get an accurate assessment of the how effective these prestige strikes are against their targets. Was the Shayret airbase attack successful? Did this MOAB really destroy the tunnels? The opacity lends itself to suspicion. The Trump spin was 20% of the Assad airforce ... but then more neutral defense websites and Tillerson said 20% of the 7th airwing.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/assad-u-s-missile-strike-fuel-syria-civil-war-article-1.3029925
WolfintheSheep
Profile Joined June 2011
Canada14127 Posts
April 13 2017 19:02 GMT
#146706
On April 14 2017 03:27 Wulfey_LA wrote:
What bothers me is how hard it is to get an accurate assessment of the how effective these prestige strikes are against their targets. Was the Shayret airbase attack successful? Did this MOAB really destroy the tunnels? The opacity lends itself to suspicion. The Trump spin was 20% of the Assad airforce ... but then more neutral defense websites and Tillerson said 20% of the 7th airwing.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/assad-u-s-missile-strike-fuel-syria-civil-war-article-1.3029925

The safe assumption is that Trump has no idea what he's talking about.
Average means I'm better than half of you.
a_flayer
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Netherlands2826 Posts
April 13 2017 19:15 GMT
#146707
I read that this bomb has like a 1 mile radius. That's insane, how can they be sure that everyone in a 1 mile radius is ISIS? Sounds like someone is doing a lot of generalizing...
When you came along so righteous with a new national hate, so convincing is the ardor of war and of men, it's harder to breathe than to believe you're a friend. The wars at home, the wars abroad, all soaked in blood and lies and fraud.
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-13 19:24:57
April 13 2017 19:21 GMT
#146708
Yup, it's scary that the US seems to go back to indiscriminate weapons. I wonder if at some point we'll see napalm/clusterbombs again.

On an unrelated note, not sure if it was brought up..

The United Airlines guy lost two front teeth, broke his nose and has a heavy concussion, and has a surgery coming up. Sounds reasonable, considering that United really needed that seat though.

sidenote, that "mile radius" seems bullshit though.

MOAB has the equivalent of 11 tons TNT, the actually biggest conventional bomb ever built (the russian FOAB) has the equivalent of 44 tons of TNT, but a radius of 300m. Have to hand it to the russians, chosing that name is kind of a dickslap on the forehead.
On track to MA1950A.
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
April 13 2017 19:27 GMT
#146709
On April 14 2017 04:15 a_flayer wrote:
I read that this bomb has like a 1 mile radius. That's insane, how can they be sure that everyone in a 1 mile radius is ISIS? Sounds like someone is doing a lot of generalizing...


It's doubly insane because the non-ISIS individuals in the area are far, far more likely to be hit by the bomb because it's mostly designed for flat open areas, not tunnel fortresses.

A satellite look at the province made it look too mountainy for the bomb too, but that's just armchair and I have no idea where exactly they dropped it.
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
April 13 2017 19:29 GMT
#146710
On April 14 2017 04:27 TheTenthDoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 14 2017 04:15 a_flayer wrote:
I read that this bomb has like a 1 mile radius. That's insane, how can they be sure that everyone in a 1 mile radius is ISIS? Sounds like someone is doing a lot of generalizing...


It's doubly insane because the non-ISIS individuals in the area are far, far more likely to be hit by the bomb because it's mostly designed for flat open areas, not tunnel fortresses.

A satellite look at the province made it look too mountainy for the bomb too, but that's just armchair and I have no idea where exactly they dropped it.


Which is triply insane because the US actually has bunker busters designed to blow up bunkers and other stuff below the earth.

Again, the mile radius seems very overestimated though.
On track to MA1950A.
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
April 13 2017 19:30 GMT
#146711
On April 14 2017 04:15 a_flayer wrote:
I read that this bomb has like a 1 mile radius. That's insane, how can they be sure that everyone in a 1 mile radius is ISIS? Sounds like someone is doing a lot of generalizing...

"The main attribute of the MOAB is that it causes overpressure," Dr. Adam Lowther, the director of the US Air Force's school of deterrence, told Business Insider on Thursday in a phone interview.

That overpressure, caused when the bomb detonates at a low altitude over its target, is designed to crush underground tunnels and bunkers like the ones often used by ISIS.

"The MOAB has a very narrow target set," a US Air Force official told Business Insider. "Basically," the official said, "targets in an environment like caves or canyons or clearing minefields" are ideal for the MOAB.

Business insider

It doesn't sound too mismatched for target. I mean this is Trump so of course all dials set up to 11.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-13 19:34:07
April 13 2017 19:33 GMT
#146712
News from the Russialands suggests that the Syria Tomahawk issue is deescalating. Which sort of confirms the fact that all the scary rhetoric we saw in the past few days is going to blow over and we're back to trying to decide whether our president is incompetent or just working for the Russians.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21700 Posts
April 13 2017 19:39 GMT
#146713
On April 14 2017 04:33 LegalLord wrote:
News from the Russialands suggests that the Syria Tomahawk issue is deescalating. Which sort of confirms the fact that all the scary rhetoric we saw in the past few days is going to blow over and we're back to trying to decide whether our president is incompetent or just working for the Russians.

People doubted that?
The US had to make a statement to not appear weak
Russia had to be mad they got bombed

Just 2 super powers keeping up appearances.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
April 13 2017 19:42 GMT
#146714
Democrats are beginning to craft an economic message for 2018 that goes beyond the tempting, single-minded strategy of demonizing Donald Trump.

Licking their wounds after an embarrassing showing in November, Democrats vowed to charge into next year’s midterms with a proactive sales pitch to voters. While many, including party leaders, have fallen right back into the same anti-Trump pattern they say cost them 2016 in the first place, top Democrats now say they’re working on “a strong, sharp-edged, bold economic message,” as Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer put it Tuesday.

Politico

And out with the old, from the new release "Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton's Doomed Campaign"
Hillary was so mad she couldn't think straight. She was supposed to be focused on the prep session for that night's Univision debate in Miami, but a potent mix of exhaustion and exasperation bubbled up inside.

She'd been humiliated in the Michigan primary the night before, a loss that not only robbed her of a prime opportunity to put Bernie Sanders down for good but also exposed several of her weaknesses. How could she have been left so vulnerable? She knew - or at least she thought she did. The blame belonged to her campaign team, she believed, for failing to hone her message, energize important constituencies and take care of business in getting voters to the polls. And now, Jake Sullivan, her de facto chief strategist, was giving her lip about the last answer she'd delivered in the prep session.

"That's not very good," Sullivan corrected.

"Really?" Hillary snapped back.

The room fell silent.

"Why don't you do it?"

The comment was pointed and sarcastic, but she meant it. So for the next 30 minutes, there he was, pretending to be Hillary while she critiqued his performance.

The Hill
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
April 13 2017 19:44 GMT
#146715
On April 14 2017 04:39 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 14 2017 04:33 LegalLord wrote:
News from the Russialands suggests that the Syria Tomahawk issue is deescalating. Which sort of confirms the fact that all the scary rhetoric we saw in the past few days is going to blow over and we're back to trying to decide whether our president is incompetent or just working for the Russians.

People doubted that?
The US had to make a statement to not appear weak
Russia had to be mad they got bombed

Just 2 super powers keeping up appearances.

Yes - but also remember how the warhawk bloc of the US sprang to life and wanted infinity billion wars as soon as Trump did something. Many of those warhawks were people who are considered to be those who direct our FP. It rather sounds like they didn't really think to coordinate their thoughts here.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-04-13 19:54:31
April 13 2017 19:48 GMT
#146716
On April 14 2017 04:30 Danglars wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 14 2017 04:15 a_flayer wrote:
I read that this bomb has like a 1 mile radius. That's insane, how can they be sure that everyone in a 1 mile radius is ISIS? Sounds like someone is doing a lot of generalizing...

Show nested quote +
"The main attribute of the MOAB is that it causes overpressure," Dr. Adam Lowther, the director of the US Air Force's school of deterrence, told Business Insider on Thursday in a phone interview.

That overpressure, caused when the bomb detonates at a low altitude over its target, is designed to crush underground tunnels and bunkers like the ones often used by ISIS.

"The MOAB has a very narrow target set," a US Air Force official told Business Insider. "Basically," the official said, "targets in an environment like caves or canyons or clearing minefields" are ideal for the MOAB.

Business insider

It doesn't sound too mismatched for target. I mean this is Trump so of course all dials set up to 11.


It is if they intended to destroy the tunnes/caves.

What you quoted is marketing talk. The bomb is effective against caves/tunnels due to pressure, yes - but not against the tunnels, but against what's in it. The primarily role is as "shock and awe" weapon, psychological warfare. Other than that, it's just a huge bomb - that's it. There's no clever "cave crushing pressure" mechanism to it, it's as dumb a bomb as they come.

The tunnels will actually be most likely unscathed for the most part. Not the people in them, again, due to the pressure, but the tunnels.

Here's some "none marketing talk".

The MOAB weapon is based upon the same principle as the BLU-82 "Daisy Cutter", except that it is larger and has a guidance system. The weapon is expected to produce a tremendous explosion that would be effective against hard-target entrances, soft-to-medium surface targets, and for anti-personnel purposes. Because of the size of the explosion, it is also effective at LZ clearance and mine and beach obstacle clearance. Injury or death to persons will be primarily caused by blast or fragmentation. It is expected that the weapon will have a substantial psychological effect on those who witness its use. The massive weapon provides a capability to perform psychological operations, attack large area targets, or hold at-risk threats hidden within tunnels or caves.


http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/moab.htm

Don't get me wrong. I wouldn't mind at all if they throw it in a remote location if there's only taliban/isis around. I just would've liked them to own it - they dropped that bomb right there because that's where the green beret died. Which is fine, and also a powerful message, if they'd own it.

edit: explosion radius btw is 150m, not a mile - so it's not as bad is it sounds.

edit2: man, american articles on this bomb are ridiculous, quoting similarities to little boy because it had 15ktons. Either it's ridiculous sensationalism or people actually don't understand the difference between "tons" and "kilotons". That's where the mile radius comes from. They're literally quoting the bomb that hit Hiroshima as equivalent, which had that mile radius.
On track to MA1950A.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
April 13 2017 19:59 GMT
#146717
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
April 13 2017 20:02 GMT
#146718
yawn, bombs dropped in war zones; feels like it could easily be regarded as a total non-issue and ignored. But I guess it's soemthing to talk about, and explosions are cool.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
m4ini
Profile Joined February 2014
4215 Posts
April 13 2017 20:04 GMT
#146719
On April 14 2017 05:02 zlefin wrote:
yawn, bombs dropped in war zones; feels like it could easily be regarded as a total non-issue and ignored. But I guess it's soemthing to talk about, and explosions are cool.


To be fair, it does get more interesting with the reveal that the US paid for it though. If true.
On track to MA1950A.
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
April 13 2017 20:05 GMT
#146720
On April 14 2017 04:48 m4ini wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 14 2017 04:30 Danglars wrote:
On April 14 2017 04:15 a_flayer wrote:
I read that this bomb has like a 1 mile radius. That's insane, how can they be sure that everyone in a 1 mile radius is ISIS? Sounds like someone is doing a lot of generalizing...

"The main attribute of the MOAB is that it causes overpressure," Dr. Adam Lowther, the director of the US Air Force's school of deterrence, told Business Insider on Thursday in a phone interview.

That overpressure, caused when the bomb detonates at a low altitude over its target, is designed to crush underground tunnels and bunkers like the ones often used by ISIS.

"The MOAB has a very narrow target set," a US Air Force official told Business Insider. "Basically," the official said, "targets in an environment like caves or canyons or clearing minefields" are ideal for the MOAB.

Business insider

It doesn't sound too mismatched for target. I mean this is Trump so of course all dials set up to 11.


It is if they intended to destroy the tunnes/caves.

What you quoted is marketing talk. The bomb is effective against caves/tunnels due to pressure, yes - but not against the tunnels, but against what's in it. The primarily role is as "shock and awe" weapon, psychological warfare. Other than that, it's just a huge bomb - that's it. There's no clever "cave crushing pressure" mechanism to it, it's as dumb a bomb as they come.

The tunnels will actually be most likely unscathed for the most part. Not the people in them, again, due to the pressure, but the tunnels.

Here's some "none marketing talk".

Show nested quote +
The MOAB weapon is based upon the same principle as the BLU-82 "Daisy Cutter", except that it is larger and has a guidance system. The weapon is expected to produce a tremendous explosion that would be effective against hard-target entrances, soft-to-medium surface targets, and for anti-personnel purposes. Because of the size of the explosion, it is also effective at LZ clearance and mine and beach obstacle clearance. Injury or death to persons will be primarily caused by blast or fragmentation. It is expected that the weapon will have a substantial psychological effect on those who witness its use. The massive weapon provides a capability to perform psychological operations, attack large area targets, or hold at-risk threats hidden within tunnels or caves.


http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/moab.htm

Don't get me wrong. I wouldn't mind at all if they throw it in a remote location if there's only taliban/isis around. I just would've liked them to own it - they dropped that bomb right there because that's where the green beret died. Which is fine, and also a powerful message, if they'd own it.

edit: explosion radius btw is 150m, not a mile - so it's not as bad is it sounds.

edit2: man, american articles on this bomb are ridiculous, quoting similarities to little boy because it had 15ktons. Either it's ridiculous sensationalism or people actually don't understand the difference between "tons" and "kilotons". That's where the mile radius comes from. They're literally quoting the bomb that hit Hiroshima as equivalent, which had that mile radius.

To be perfectly honest, I only see personal choice in whose account you trash or trust. I'd have to see much more to show "not against the tunnels but against what's in it" to an Occam's razor "yes, dropping a big bomb over a tunnel system is first designed to collapse and kill, secondly psychological shock and awe, and the PhD is not a marketing shill."
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
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