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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 6900

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18876 Posts
February 16 2017 22:05 GMT
#137981
the special schools for nice kids make up far too small a portion of the for-profit education market to render that a justifiable fear; education and coastal properties are the next big bubbles, and suburbia will not be immune to the effects of either.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
February 16 2017 22:07 GMT
#137982
On February 17 2017 07:05 farvacola wrote:
the special schools for nice kids make up far too small a portion of the for-profit education market to render that a justifiable fear; education and coastal properties are the next big bubbles, and suburbia will not be immune to the effects of either.

it's the perceptions. already charter parents rate their schools higher despite having same or worse results.

maybe you are too optimistic about human nature. you should try being gloomy all the time
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
Gahlo
Profile Joined February 2010
United States35174 Posts
February 16 2017 22:08 GMT
#137983
An interesting article from mid-last year on whistle blowing, why going through the proper channels is a bad idea, etc.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/22/how-pentagon-punished-nsa-whistleblowers
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18876 Posts
February 16 2017 22:10 GMT
#137984
I prefer existential optimism, and I find it works nicely with the depersonalization of becoming a lawyer. Besides, it's not like predicting bubbles isn't already gloomy enough
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
February 16 2017 22:12 GMT
#137985
Then it takes longer. Trying to talk people out of terrible ideas has not worked. If they want to turn their state into trash, let them. They want to repress voters ID law and closing polling stations, let them try and enjoy the civil unrest. Enjoy the economic failure when all major businesses pull out of the state. Pence drove his state into the ground and did so much damage they are basically undoing everything he did.

And at some point the democrats or whatever emerges from the wreckage will find a way to win elections. But until then, the red states can touch the stove and all end up like West Virginia.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
biology]major
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States2253 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-16 22:16:35
February 16 2017 22:15 GMT
#137986
Catastrophe aside, 4 years goes by quick, are the democrats going to open up the playing field this time and let more people battle for the nomination?
Question.?
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States44439 Posts
February 16 2017 22:19 GMT
#137987
On February 17 2017 06:24 biology]major wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2017 06:16 Plansix wrote:
On February 17 2017 06:07 biology]major wrote:
On February 17 2017 06:00 farvacola wrote:
Tsk tsk, per xDaunt's words, Fox News is your enemy Plansix, you're supposed to vehemently oppose literally everything associated with them or else...well it's not entirely clear why you have to treat everything as black and white under xDaunt's handy rule of contemporary US political cooperation, only that you give no quarter. How this relates with to conservatives turning into snowflakes when called racists is beyond me, but consistency is clearly not important anymore


your passive aggressive and indirect comments usually just undermine whatever point it is you are trying to make.

Xdaunt claims to be well informed, but openly admits to not reading or caring about news he declared as from the left/biased. They are the enemy, so they can be disregarded. But then reads the rag that used to be run by Bannon and trusts them.


There is a fixation on the negative stories regardless of what outlet you follow. An outlet that does positive and negative coverage of Trump, I'll call that balanced and worth consuming. There is some good in there, but the hysteria is caused by an unending fixation on the negative. Never read a breitbart article in my life so I'm not sure what that's about. Honestly, the only inquisitive TV journalist I've seen who isn't terribly biased is Cooper on Fake News Network TM.

Regarding the Russia thing, it's stupid because we are put in a position where we have leaks that have damning implications, but then have no access to any other follow up information. What are we supposed to do with this information lol? I'm just going to listen to what mattis says, he seems like a independent agent in Trump's admin and so far he has been calling out Russia.

Mainstream media reported when the stock market broke 2300 etc or when companies opened new factories in the US. I don't think it's fair to say "the news is almost all bad about Trump, therefore they must not be reporting the good". That only makes sense if you start with the assumption that news, both good and bad, exists in roughly equal quantities and any deviation from that is the result of biased filtering.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Nevuk
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United States16280 Posts
February 16 2017 22:20 GMT
#137988
Negative reporting in general sells more, so the news is far more likely to take negative angles on stories if they exist. That's always been true
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
February 16 2017 22:21 GMT
#137989
On February 17 2017 07:15 biology]major wrote:
Catastrophe aside, 4 years goes by quick, are the democrats going to open up the playing field this time and let more people battle for the nomination?

the dems per se didn't prevent the field from being open. it's just that most people didn't want to go up against hillary because they felt they were gonna lose. when you have a system wherein the question is who chooses to run, rather than who should run, that happens.
though it'd kinda happen anyways, as there's usually not that many people before some are clearly better choices than others.
losing and getting a pitiful showing (like 1-2%) can be bad for the career, which is why not everyone just dives for it, it can also make enemies.
that said, it's common to only have 5-6 people showing interest, which is what the dems had at the start. the really large republican field was an abnormality historically.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12619 Posts
February 16 2017 22:21 GMT
#137990
On February 17 2017 07:15 biology]major wrote:
Catastrophe aside, 4 years goes by quick, are the democrats going to open up the playing field this time and let more people battle for the nomination?


Depends if we get Ellison or Perez I think.
No will to live, no wish to die
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
February 16 2017 22:25 GMT
#137991
On February 17 2017 07:21 Nebuchad wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2017 07:15 biology]major wrote:
Catastrophe aside, 4 years goes by quick, are the democrats going to open up the playing field this time and let more people battle for the nomination?


Depends if we get Ellison or Perez I think.

The field in 2020 will be wide open no matter what. They have no bench, so it is going to be anyone’s game.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Gahlo
Profile Joined February 2010
United States35174 Posts
February 16 2017 22:28 GMT
#137992
On February 17 2017 07:21 zlefin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2017 07:15 biology]major wrote:
Catastrophe aside, 4 years goes by quick, are the democrats going to open up the playing field this time and let more people battle for the nomination?

the dems per se didn't prevent the field from being open. it's just that most people didn't want to go up against hillary because they felt they were gonna lose. when you have a system wherein the question is who chooses to run, rather than who should run, that happens.
though it'd kinda happen anyways, as there's usually not that many people before some are clearly better choices than others.
losing and getting a pitiful showing (like 1-2%) can be bad for the career, which is why not everyone just dives for it, it can also make enemies.
that said, it's common to only have 5-6 people showing interest, which is what the dems had at the start. the really large republican field was an abnormality historically.

Then it comes down to why they thought they were going to lose. If they were afraid the primary would be rigged against them, well, the proof is in the pudding on that.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
February 16 2017 22:32 GMT
#137993
btw that study about the survivability of rus/china leadership vs nuclear threats is mighty dandy right now. these people are fine with nuking the world if they and their mistresses live on. kleptocracies are really an existential threat to the world.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
zlefin
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
United States7689 Posts
February 16 2017 22:38 GMT
#137994
On February 17 2017 07:28 Gahlo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2017 07:21 zlefin wrote:
On February 17 2017 07:15 biology]major wrote:
Catastrophe aside, 4 years goes by quick, are the democrats going to open up the playing field this time and let more people battle for the nomination?

the dems per se didn't prevent the field from being open. it's just that most people didn't want to go up against hillary because they felt they were gonna lose. when you have a system wherein the question is who chooses to run, rather than who should run, that happens.
though it'd kinda happen anyways, as there's usually not that many people before some are clearly better choices than others.
losing and getting a pitiful showing (like 1-2%) can be bad for the career, which is why not everyone just dives for it, it can also make enemies.
that said, it's common to only have 5-6 people showing interest, which is what the dems had at the start. the really large republican field was an abnormality historically.

Then it comes down to why they thought they were going to lose. If they were afraid the primary would be rigged against them, well, the proof is in the pudding on that.

they thought they were gonna lose because hillary had a LOT of establishment support, was a long-time party stalwart, had high name recognition, and had a strong mastery of policy, and had already done one good try for the presidency.
nothing ot do with riggedness per se, just they knew they'd be going up against a powerful machine.
they'd just rather wait for a more open field to make their try. and they don't want to get on hillary's bad side.

while some may dislike hillary alot, most of those people aren't in democratic primaries so won't matter much there.

they thought they'd lose because they were of a lesser caliber? that'd be my assumption at least. also i'm not sure there's a good monetization model for also-rans (i.e. some republicans, especially less political ones lately go presidential run -> lucrative deal as a talking head on Fox news or somesuch). I haven't seen so many dem-side people trying that.

there's no need to bring riggedness suspicions into it.
Great read: http://shorensteincenter.org/news-coverage-2016-general-election/ great book on democracy: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10671.html zlefin is grumpier due to long term illness. Ignoring some users.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-16 22:40:16
February 16 2017 22:39 GMT
#137995
read this
http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo5921600.html

chapter 7
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
February 16 2017 22:56 GMT
#137996
Note that the one of the reasons we didn't have a three-way heavyweight race for the Dems with Biden/Clinton/Sanders was Biden's son's illness. Though with Biden in the fray I'm not sure Sanders would have kept chugging as long as he did.

Most of the races narrow to 2-3 choices after the first chunk of primaries anyway. The Republican primary this time was way outside the norm.
a_flayer
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Netherlands2826 Posts
February 16 2017 23:06 GMT
#137997
On February 17 2017 07:39 oneofthem wrote:
read this
http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo5921600.html

chapter 7


The way you are presenting that, I am going to assume it says what I want it to say.
When you came along so righteous with a new national hate, so convincing is the ardor of war and of men, it's harder to breathe than to believe you're a friend. The wars at home, the wars abroad, all soaked in blood and lies and fraud.
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
February 16 2017 23:08 GMT
#137998
lol and what is that?
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
February 16 2017 23:11 GMT
#137999
The 538 summary is alright here.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Doodsmack
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States7224 Posts
February 16 2017 23:14 GMT
#138000
To be clear, Trump wanted Flynn to express to the Russian ambassador that they could expect a reprieve from sanctions. I'm pretty sure we're past the point of there being an innocent explanation for all of this.

Former national security adviser Michael Flynn denied to FBI agents in an interview last month that he had discussed U.S. sanctions against Russia with that country’s ambassador to the United States before President Trump took office, contradicting the contents of intercepted communications collected by intelligence agencies, current and former U.S. officials said.

The Jan. 24 interview potentially puts Flynn in legal jeopardy, as lying to the FBI is a felony, but any decision to prosecute would ultimately lie with the Justice Department. Some officials said bringing a case could prove difficult in part because Flynn may attempt to parse the definition of sanctions.

...

Senior Justice and intelligence officials who have reviewed the phone call thought Flynn’s statements to Kislyak were inappropriate, if not illegal, because he suggested that the Kremlin could expect a reprieve from the sanctions.


WSJ
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