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On November 17 2016 06:29 xDaunt wrote: You guys are missing the larger genius of Trump's Twitter usage. Twitter lets Trump speak directly to the American people without being filtered by a biased press.
We're in an age where the president is directly quoted and basically everything he says is video recorded and can be found on YouTube.
But go ahead, keep blaming "media bias" for how stupid he sounds.
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On November 17 2016 06:53 Stratos_speAr wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2016 06:29 xDaunt wrote: You guys are missing the larger genius of Trump's Twitter usage. Twitter lets Trump speak directly to the American people without being filtered by a biased press. We're in an age where the president is directly quoted and basically everything he says is video recorded and can be found on YouTube. But go ahead, keep blaming "media bias" for how stupid he sounds. You need look no further than the current reporting on the transition to see the bias. It's not even debatable that the media has been rabidly anti-Trump.
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I'm afraid Trump will win 2020 even with disastrous presidency that he will have. Just remember Bush on second term and you can see a case.
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On November 17 2016 06:56 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2016 06:53 Stratos_speAr wrote:On November 17 2016 06:29 xDaunt wrote: You guys are missing the larger genius of Trump's Twitter usage. Twitter lets Trump speak directly to the American people without being filtered by a biased press. We're in an age where the president is directly quoted and basically everything he says is video recorded and can be found on YouTube. But go ahead, keep blaming "media bias" for how stupid he sounds. You need look no further than the current reporting on the transition to see the bias. It's not even debatable that the media has been rabidly anti-Trump.
by literally talking more about Hillary's emails than any policy issue combined? The media made Trump president, that's not even debatable
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On November 17 2016 05:52 kwizach wrote:Show nested quote +On November 16 2016 23:47 zlefin wrote: I just dislike when people try to say it all comes down to X, or all the blame needs to go on Y. rather than accepting a more nuanced answer, wherein blame and causation are attributed to many different factors. In particular a lot of people who are predisposed to being anti-clinton tend to try to put everything on her, rather than letting blame&causation be spread around some. Your call for nuanced analysis is appreciated. I don't think anyone here is denying that Clinton and her campaign made important strategic mistakes, yet various other factors which definitely played a role in her defeat are waved away by some people with clear anti-Clinton bias as mere excuses, when any impartial observer would recognize their significance. The role played by various media outlets in how they covered both the campaign as a whole (see for example my previous posts on the false equivalences which characterized a substantial part of the coverage, on the focus on the state of the race itself rather than on policy issues, on the focus sometimes on perception rather than on facts (the WaPo's Chris Cillizza being the poster boy for this), etc.) and HRC's e-mail "scandal" in particular, by Sanders' constant attacks for months on HRC's personal integrity and on the DNC, by the long history of GOP false smears against HRC, by the sexist lenses many still have on, by Wikileaks' releasing documents impacting only HRC and the Democrats, by echo chambers on social media, by James Comey' two breaches of protocol, by how many in the conservative media have so vilified the so-called "mainstream media" over the last couple of decades that reporting is much more rapidly dismissed as soon as it contradicts pre-existing views (about Trump's honesty, for example), etc. -- the list goes on. The argument that those only played a tangential role because the main issue was how deeply flawed HRC is personally completely misses the point: many people's views of HRC as deeply and fundamentally flawed is precisely shaped by several of the factors mentioned above, and this is particularly true of the fact that many see her as dishonest. Both the quantitative and qualitative data that we have show us that she isn't more or less dishonest than any regular Democratic politician (the witch hunts of the early 1990s did lead her to become more secretive and distrustful of the media, though) -- which is not to say that she never lies, but that's not the same thing as being uniquely and profoundly more dishonest than everyone else --, and her record clearly shows her drive in fighting for a variety of issues that directly resonate with a large part of the electorate. Yet over the last two years, several of the factors I mentioned above contributed to the nose-dive of her honest/dishonest ratings. Obviously, this is not to say either that she did not have weaknesses or that no criticism of her is legitimate. Nevertheless, an honest assessment of her defeat should unquestionably leave a huge space to many of the factors I highlighted.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I think most people admit that those things played a role (though I think many would describe them differently), but the point is that all of that crap wouldn't have overpowered her actually campaigning well.
One big one you left out would be Hillary's team intentionally elevating Trump thinking he would be an easy win in the general.
It's not that none of the stuff you listed played a role (it did), just wouldn't have mattered if she campaigned like Obama, or someone who thought they had to earn it, not that they deserved it. The post-election fits from those like Finney, show that, both then and now, they still think they deserved the win, they didn't earn.
What I find fascinating is how different people think America thinks based on 1-2 million votes. Had Hillary won (even if she lost the popular vote) Democrats would be talking about how the American people rejected Trump, blah, blah, blah.
It's like we're ignoring that ~75% of the population didn't vote for Hillary, or in the case of the winner Trump, still about 75% of Americans didn't vote for him.
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On November 17 2016 06:59 arbiter_md wrote: I'm afraid Trump will win 2020 even with disastrous presidency that he will have. Just remember Bush on second term and you can see a case.
Bush would have lost second term without 9/11 and the war.
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On November 17 2016 06:56 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2016 06:53 Stratos_speAr wrote:On November 17 2016 06:29 xDaunt wrote: You guys are missing the larger genius of Trump's Twitter usage. Twitter lets Trump speak directly to the American people without being filtered by a biased press. We're in an age where the president is directly quoted and basically everything he says is video recorded and can be found on YouTube. But go ahead, keep blaming "media bias" for how stupid he sounds. You need look no further than the current reporting on the transition to see the bias. It's not even debatable that the media has been rabidly anti-Trump.
Of course the media is anti-Trump. This rose-tinted delusion that the media used to be less biased in the past is ridiculous. The media always has a bias.
That said, their bias is completely irrelevant to Trump having a Twitter account. Using his Twitter account doesn't allow him to address the public in an "unfiltered manner" by circumventing the press because everything he says and does is readily available by video.
And it's also funny for you to try to insinuate that the press was helping Clinton when all of her scandals got much, much, much, much, much more media attention than any of his.
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On November 17 2016 07:02 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2016 06:59 arbiter_md wrote: I'm afraid Trump will win 2020 even with disastrous presidency that he will have. Just remember Bush on second term and you can see a case. Bush would have lost second term without 9/11 and the war.
Don't give Trump ideas.
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On November 17 2016 07:05 Stratos_speAr wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2016 06:56 xDaunt wrote:On November 17 2016 06:53 Stratos_speAr wrote:On November 17 2016 06:29 xDaunt wrote: You guys are missing the larger genius of Trump's Twitter usage. Twitter lets Trump speak directly to the American people without being filtered by a biased press. We're in an age where the president is directly quoted and basically everything he says is video recorded and can be found on YouTube. But go ahead, keep blaming "media bias" for how stupid he sounds. You need look no further than the current reporting on the transition to see the bias. It's not even debatable that the media has been rabidly anti-Trump. Of course the media is anti-Trump. This rose-tinted delusion that the media used to be less biased in the past is ridiculous. The media always has a bias. That said, their bias is completely irrelevant to Trump having a Twitter account. Using his Twitter account doesn't allow him to address the public in an "unfiltered manner" by circumventing the press because everything he says and does is readily available by video. And it's also funny for you to try to insinuate that the press was helping Clinton when all of her scandals got much, much, much, much, much more media attention than any of his.
Hillary's scandals got so much more (a premise I actually question) attention because she spaced them out more, and would basically disappear (from public questioning) for weeks or months at a time. So there was basically nothing new to report about Clinton other than polls and the status of the federal investigation into her. Yeah, lets not forget she's the first candidate actively under federal investigation (that she lied repeatedly about). Of course that's going to get a lot of attention.
I'm curious from those who say "there wasn't enough policy discussion" when was the last election that was argued/decided on policy and not personality in your opinion?
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On November 17 2016 06:40 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2016 06:24 Yurie wrote: Would not the democrats recover with 0 policy changes if they managed to push through a law changing vote day to a weekend or requiring voting with a fine at taxes for not voting (or similar)? Basically, if turnout went up 10-20%. That should probably be what they are targetting more than anything else. Mandatory voting get more people to vote who do not care about the process, the candidates or the outcome.It's how you get more Trump, not less. You want to make it easier for those who actually want to vote to be able to do so. Also HAHA at the idea that the Democrats, while not in control of any arm of government could force through a change that would make it more likely for them to win elections. Do you think the Republicans, who have been vindicated of 6 years of pure obstructionism, will work with anyone else, right now? citation needed. while it's certainly possible, it's not necessarily true.
if I added the bold correctly, consider the bolded part; when selecting a jury of citizens to hear a case (not sure if you use those where you are), you select people who don't care about the parties or the outcome so they can make an impartial decision. It's possible that if you forced people who don't care much about voting to vote, they'd actually do a better job because they have less bias.
gh -> the reason the current inthread debate here over blame came up was because some people were using wording which tended to disregard the other reasons or consider them to in some sense "not count." most people indeed will, if pressed, properly acknowledge them; but sometimes the more partisan people won't, or they'll talk inaccurately, and only be accurate when pressed. which can lead to spreading false narratives; but this is getting too meta I think. basically, it came up cuz it kinda was an issue.
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On November 17 2016 07:02 Nebuchad wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2016 06:59 arbiter_md wrote: I'm afraid Trump will win 2020 even with disastrous presidency that he will have. Just remember Bush on second term and you can see a case. Bush would have lost second term without 9/11 and the war. Karl Rove also helped a great deal.
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gh -> the reason the current inthread debate here over blame came up was because some people were using wording which tended to disregard the other reasons or consider them to in some sense "not count." most people indeed will, if pressed, properly acknowledge them; but sometimes the more partisan people won't, or they'll talk inaccurately, and only be accurate when pressed. which can lead to spreading false narratives; but this is getting too meta I think. basically, it came up cuz it kinda was an issue.
It reminds me of someone blaming their passenger for ordering a coffee that took too long to make after they hit a car because they ran a red light. We could do the forensics and find out that had she ordered a plain coffee that they would have made it to the light before it turned red and not crashed, but you know, the passenger isn't the one who ran the red light.
So if someone says: "The passenger had nothing to do with the wreck", technically they may be wrong, but most reasonable people can see that had the driver just not ran the red light, the passenger doesn't matter.
Hillary supporters (who's livelihood is still connected to them) are basically at the point of calculating the weight of the passenger and it's impact on acceleration, saying "we can't ignore these other factors!". Sure, from a technical perspective they did, but that's missing the forest for the sake of seeing the tree.
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On November 17 2016 04:45 oBlade wrote: Among Corker, Cruz, and Sessions, it can't a good idea to take but so many people out of the senate. Are there special elections for those seats? Or what happens?
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On November 17 2016 07:49 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2016 04:45 oBlade wrote: Among Corker, Cruz, and Sessions, it can't a good idea to take but so many people out of the senate. Are there special elections for those seats? Or what happens? The governor of the state that senator is from picks a replacement senator to serve out the term.
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On November 17 2016 07:42 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +gh -> the reason the current inthread debate here over blame came up was because some people were using wording which tended to disregard the other reasons or consider them to in some sense "not count." most people indeed will, if pressed, properly acknowledge them; but sometimes the more partisan people won't, or they'll talk inaccurately, and only be accurate when pressed. which can lead to spreading false narratives; but this is getting too meta I think. basically, it came up cuz it kinda was an issue. It reminds me of someone blaming their passenger for ordering a coffee that took too long to make after they hit a car because they ran a red light. We could do the forensics and find out that had she ordered a plain coffee that they would have made it to the light before it turned red and not crashed, but you know, the passenger isn't the one who ran the red light. So if someone says: "The passenger had nothing to do with the wreck", technically they may be wrong, but most reasonable people can see that had the driver just not ran the red light, the passenger doesn't matter. Hillary supporters (who's livelihood is still connected to them) are basically at the point of calculating the weight of the passenger and it's impact on acceleration, saying "we can't ignore these other factors!". Sure, from a technical perspective they did, but that's missing the forest for the sake of seeing the tree.
the thing is, your analogy isn't entirely apt; and there are some entirely and some partially legitimate complaints against others. Which is why there's things like contributory negligence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contributory_negligence some of the other people in this case aren't like that passenger, they contributed far more directly to the issue. and people who treat the actual case as if it was like that analogy, and asserting that the others did nothing relevant or worthy of consideration in assessing the incident are also missing a vital part of the overall matter.
and again there's the key difference between blameworthy causation and non-blameworthy causation.
we all know that some of her supporters aren't doing enough focusing on the issues with hillary, but likewise some of her opponents are doing too much focusing on that, without giving enough credence to other factors. I'm against all the inaccuracies, and in the cases here, was focused on the latter.
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What bullshit argument can you possibly make how bush would have lost in 2004 if it wasn't for 9/11 and the war. It literally defined his presidency. Thats like saying Obama would have lost if it wasn't for Obamacare or the father bush would have won his second term if he had gone into bagdad and toppled the iraqi regime.
Just beacuse the last 3 presidents had double terms doesn't mean that it'll happen again.
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On November 17 2016 08:09 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2016 07:42 GreenHorizons wrote:gh -> the reason the current inthread debate here over blame came up was because some people were using wording which tended to disregard the other reasons or consider them to in some sense "not count." most people indeed will, if pressed, properly acknowledge them; but sometimes the more partisan people won't, or they'll talk inaccurately, and only be accurate when pressed. which can lead to spreading false narratives; but this is getting too meta I think. basically, it came up cuz it kinda was an issue. It reminds me of someone blaming their passenger for ordering a coffee that took too long to make after they hit a car because they ran a red light. We could do the forensics and find out that had she ordered a plain coffee that they would have made it to the light before it turned red and not crashed, but you know, the passenger isn't the one who ran the red light. So if someone says: "The passenger had nothing to do with the wreck", technically they may be wrong, but most reasonable people can see that had the driver just not ran the red light, the passenger doesn't matter. Hillary supporters (who's livelihood is still connected to them) are basically at the point of calculating the weight of the passenger and it's impact on acceleration, saying "we can't ignore these other factors!". Sure, from a technical perspective they did, but that's missing the forest for the sake of seeing the tree. the thing is, your analogy isn't entirely apt; and there are some entirely and some partially legitimate complaints against others. Which is why there's things like contributory negligence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contributory_negligencesome of the other people in this case aren't like that passenger, they contributed far more directly to the issue. and people who treat the actual case as if it was like that analogy, and asserting that the others did nothing relevant or worthy of consideration in assessing the incident are also missing a vital part of the overall matter. and again there's the key difference between blameworthy causation and non-blameworthy causation. we all know that some of her supporters aren't doing enough focusing on the issues with hillary, but likewise some of her opponents are doing too much focusing on that, without giving enough credence to other factors. I'm against all the inaccuracies, and in the cases here, was focused on the latter.
What influence are you suggesting couldn't have been overcome by her just being a better candidate? I'm not talking ridiculous standards, I'm talking about things like actually going to states she wrongly assumed were sure things (Wisconsin) or not wasting time and money on states she had no chance at, or here's one, not set up a private server in some random place.
You fix those three mistakes, and Hillary wins, all the other stuff counts, but doesn't change the outcome. All three of those were totally under her control. She is the reason she lost, sure others helped, but she is the reason she lost.
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On November 17 2016 08:21 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2016 08:09 zlefin wrote:On November 17 2016 07:42 GreenHorizons wrote:gh -> the reason the current inthread debate here over blame came up was because some people were using wording which tended to disregard the other reasons or consider them to in some sense "not count." most people indeed will, if pressed, properly acknowledge them; but sometimes the more partisan people won't, or they'll talk inaccurately, and only be accurate when pressed. which can lead to spreading false narratives; but this is getting too meta I think. basically, it came up cuz it kinda was an issue. It reminds me of someone blaming their passenger for ordering a coffee that took too long to make after they hit a car because they ran a red light. We could do the forensics and find out that had she ordered a plain coffee that they would have made it to the light before it turned red and not crashed, but you know, the passenger isn't the one who ran the red light. So if someone says: "The passenger had nothing to do with the wreck", technically they may be wrong, but most reasonable people can see that had the driver just not ran the red light, the passenger doesn't matter. Hillary supporters (who's livelihood is still connected to them) are basically at the point of calculating the weight of the passenger and it's impact on acceleration, saying "we can't ignore these other factors!". Sure, from a technical perspective they did, but that's missing the forest for the sake of seeing the tree. the thing is, your analogy isn't entirely apt; and there are some entirely and some partially legitimate complaints against others. Which is why there's things like contributory negligence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contributory_negligencesome of the other people in this case aren't like that passenger, they contributed far more directly to the issue. and people who treat the actual case as if it was like that analogy, and asserting that the others did nothing relevant or worthy of consideration in assessing the incident are also missing a vital part of the overall matter. and again there's the key difference between blameworthy causation and non-blameworthy causation. we all know that some of her supporters aren't doing enough focusing on the issues with hillary, but likewise some of her opponents are doing too much focusing on that, without giving enough credence to other factors. I'm against all the inaccuracies, and in the cases here, was focused on the latter. What influence are you suggesting couldn't have been overcome by her just being a better candidate? I'm not talking ridiculous standards, I'm talking about things like actually going to states she wrongly assumed were sure things (Wisconsin) or not wasting time and money on states she had no chance at, or here's one, not set up a private server in some random place. You fix those three mistakes, and Hillary wins, all the other stuff counts, but doesn't change the outcome. All three of those were totally under her control. She is the reason she lost, sure others helped, but she is the reason she lost. This is the correct analysis. Hillary's own misconduct, errors, and poor planning probably created at least a 5 point headwind for her. Eliminate those, and she wins comfortably. That's why all of this deflecting of blame away from her is so silly. Her own fuckups indisputably put her election at risk, and she paid for it.
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you seem to be missing the point GH; it's been explained as well and as thoroughly as I can do so, and you don't seem to be getting it properly, or not wanting to accept the issues about phrasing mattering or something.
I'll give one last try, but if this doesn't make it there's nothing more I can do. consider your statement "She is the reason she lost, sure others helped, but she is the reason she lost." the first and last part kind of imply a 100% sourcing for the reasons, rather than a more accurate and reasonable number. sometimes people omit the "sure others helped part", which leaves us with an attribution of 100% of the problem on one source. also, just because someone could've won by doing several things better doesn't mean we should put the fault entirely on them. The issue is one of phrasing and clarity.
saying someone could've done better by just being better isn't very reasonable; trump could've won all 50 states by just being a better candidate. I also never said the negatives were so bad they couldn't have been overcome by her being a better candidate, so I don't know where you're getting that, it sounds again like an improper understanding of what's actually at issue here.
xdaunt -> not responding to you on this issue as you are not being reasonable; and have a long and proven history of doing so and hatin'
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