US Politics Mega-thread - Page 5946

Last time, Silver drew fire for predicting an Obama electoral blowout. This time, he draws fire for not predicting a Hillary blowout. Funny how that works, isn't it?

On November 07 2016 03:32 LegalLord wrote:

Nate Silver wins if Clinton barely edges out Trump since that's basically what he predicts. PEC and HuffPo and others predict a blowout.

Last time, Silver drew fire for predicting an Obama electoral blowout. This time, he draws fire for not predicting a Hillary blowout. Funny how that works, isn't it?

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said Friday that she plans to vote in favor of legalizing recreational marijuana in California.

"I will vote for it, but I have not made a public statement about it until right this very second," Pelosi, who represents the district that serves San Francisco, told the editorial board and reporters at the Los Angeles Times.

Pelosi's stance on the issue makes her one of the highest ranking politicians in a relatively small group openly supporting legalization of the drug for recreational use. It's more common for lawmakers to support its medical use.

The state ballot measure in question is California's Proposition 64, which if passed would treat marijuana much like alcohol. Recreational marijuana would be legal for those over the age of 21, and the state would tax its growth and sales in addition to regulating its distribution. Medical marijuana is already legal in California.

The question of whether pot should be legal is a big theme on state ballots this year. Arizona, Maine, Massachusetts, and Nevada are also voting on measures that would make the drug legal to possess and use in small amounts for people over 21. Four other states are voting to legalize medical marijuana: Arkansas, Florida, Montana, and North Dakota.

According to the Atlantic, recent polls show that voters in the five states deciding on recreational marijuana are leaning toward legalization. If all the measures passed, marijuana would be legal for 25 percent of the country's population, up from where it is currently, at 5 percent.

That echoes a national trend. According to a recent Gallup poll, public support for legal pot has climbed to 60 percent — the highest level recorded by the polling group in nearly 50 years. The move toward acceptance might mean more politicians will soon join Pelosi in openly supporting similar measures across the country.

Recreational marijuana is already legal in Colorado, Alaska, Washington, Oregon and the District of Columbia (though in D.C. it's still illegal to buy or sell it).

Looking at the two states with the longest track records with legal pot — Colorado and Washington, which both legalized it in 2012 — there's evidence that the drug's status has been good to the states' economies. In 2015, Colorado saw a $2.39 billion boost in its economy and the pot industry is credited with creating over 18,000 jobs, according to the Denver Post. A majority of Coloradans also say legalization has been good for Colorado and its economy, according to a recent poll. Washington has collected nearly $70 million in taxes related to marijuana and expects to see more than $1 billion in the next four years, according to Bloomberg.

On November 07 2016 01:06 xDaunt wrote:

Are you actually arguing that the Clintons are clean and that they don't run their foundation with any appearance of impropriety? And if not, then what's your point?

On November 07 2016 04:04 Luolis wrote:

Finland 67% Trump? AHAHAHAQHAHHAHAHAHAHA

On November 07 2016 03:05 Biff The Understudy wrote:

Well, I suspect you would have listened to what I have been saying the last three pages if there weren't something personal, so, yes you didn't bring it up your feelings but they sweat in your attitude.

To answer your question, it changes all the time, because 538 in particular has a lot of states around the 50% mark.

About the two models disagreeing right now, on top of Florida (538 gives a 52% chances to Trump while HP think Clinton has 91,6% chances to win it), we have:

Ohio: 538 sees a 67% chance of Trump win. HP sees 57% of a Clinton win.
Nevada: 539 51,5% Trump, HP 78,5% Clinton
North Carolina: 538 52% Trump, HP 90% Clinton

There might be others I am missing, and it might change in the next hours. You can check:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/forecast/president#likely-votes-clinton
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

So now, for example, if 538 is right and Trump wins the four of them, we know for sure that their model is most certainly better than the Huff Post, because losing states in which you have 90%, 78,5%, 57% and 91,6 (Florida) chances to win is statistically extremely, extremely unlikely. That's why the Huff Post puts Clinton chances at 98,4%.

What is interesting is that Silver problem with the HP forecast is that from what I understood they don't consider that polling errors in one state mean anything in another, which is a bit ludicrous. If polls underestimated Trump chances by 3 point in Colorado, for example (and that's very possible, it's a high but nonetheless normal margin of error), it is more than likely they also underestimated them in New Mexico and Arizona.

That's why Trump chances are 35% according to 538, and 1,6% in the HP model.

And again, I have nothing against you and never had and I am discussing in good faith.

On November 07 2016 04:13 plasmidghost wrote:
Hmm, Trump's having rallies in Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia today, he's a pretty big underdog in each state but it might be enough of an enthusiasm burst to get people to vote for him, maybe he'll win one of them

On November 07 2016 04:04 Luolis wrote:

Finland 67% Trump? AHAHAHAQHAHHAHAHAHAHA

On November 07 2016 04:13 plasmidghost wrote:
Hmm, Trump's having rallies in Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia today, he's a pretty big underdog in each state but it might be enough of an enthusiasm burst to get people to vote for him, maybe he'll win one of them

Hispanic voters could be poised to deliver a historic rebuke to Donald Trump and the Republican Party.

Early-vote statistics from battleground states with large Hispanic populations show record turnout among a bloc that has voted at a lower rate than whites or blacks in past elections. If, as some polls suggest, Hispanic voters are supporting Hillary Clinton by blowout margins, these numbers could sink Trump in a handful of states that are essential to his path to 270 electoral votes.

In Nevada, Latino turnout propelled Democrats in Clark County — the population center that's home to Las Vegas — to a record-breaking close on Friday, driving up the Democratic lead in early ballots cast to 72,000. That's enough, according to veteran Nevada political analyst Jon Ralston, to essentially tie a bow on the state for Clinton.

Four years earlier, when President Barack Obama won the state by 7 points, Democrats led Clark County in ballots cast by 71,000 at the end of early voting in 2012.

State GOP Chairman Michael McDonald responded to the sudden electoral tremors Saturday by suggesting there were shady dealings behind the surge, referring to “a certain group.”

“Last night, in Clark County, they kept a poll open till 10 o’clock at night so a certain group could vote,” said McDonald at a Trump rally in Reno. “It wasn’t in an area that normally has high transition. The polls are supposed to close at 7. This was kept open till 10. Yeah, you feel free right now? Think this is a free or easy election?”

In his speech following those remarks, Trump suggested there might be wrongdoing at "certain key Democratic polling locations in Clark County."

"Folks, it's a rigged system. It's a rigged system. And we're going to beat it," he said.

In Florida, which tracks turnout by race and ethnicity, Hispanics have so far cast about 14 percent of the 5.7 million early and absentee ballots cast. That puts Hispanics far ahead of where they were in casting early ballots relative to 2012.

That follows Florida Democratic strategist Steve Schale's analysis, which notes that, through Wednesday alone, Hispanic turnout in 2016 had already exceeded — by 170,000 ballots — Hispanic early voting in the entire 2012 cycle. And Schale noted that many of them are first-time voters, who Democrats see as crucial targets in the early-voting period.

Similar signs suggest Democrats are seeing robust Hispanic turnout in Arizona as well. And even Texas, considered out of reach for Democrats, is seeing a surge across the state's most populous counties.

Latino turnout has historically lagged that of most other races and ethnicities — even among those eligible to cast ballots. In 2012, 62 percent of all U.S. citizens voted in the presidential election — but only 48 percent of Hispanic citizens did. Meanwhile, higher percentages of white citizens (62 percent) and black citizens (66 percent) participated.