|
Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
On July 27 2016 05:58 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2016 05:52 Mohdoo wrote:On July 27 2016 05:48 xDaunt wrote:On July 27 2016 05:47 Doodsmack wrote:On July 27 2016 05:45 xDaunt wrote:
The underlying problem with Democrat/Progressive unity is Hillary herself. Looking at the situation in the light most favorable to her, she lacks the charisma to unify the party like Obama did after that nasty primary. Looking at the situation a little more realistically, she clearly is unlikable to a large chunk of the Democrat base, which makes it very difficult to rally behind her. Donald Trump makes it very easy to rally. That theory hasn't worked out so well thus far. People can be livid about Sanders and still vote for Clinton. As an Oregonian, this is basically the case everywhere, especially in Portland. I don't know how to fully convey just how bad people think trump is. People see him as Hitler. People are mad, pissed even that they have to vote Clinton. They are quick to point out Clinton is awful and the worst but that electing trump is just beyond reasonable. Impossible even for them. I have no doubt that there is a large segment of Bernie voters and other progressives/hyper-liberals that is going to vote for Hillary. They don't all have to stay home for Trump to win. My point is that Hillary's own personal negative qualities are a significant drag on her candidacy, which mutual dislike for Trump may not be able to overcome. This problem for Hillary is thoroughly reflected in the current state of the polls -- both in the current standings and in the polls' internals concerning Hillary.
Yeah that is certainly the case.
|
Hate to break it to you but this has nothing to do with free speech...
|
This is terrible scheduling. Have sanders one night bill clinton the next obama The third and then hillary to close out the convention boom everything else is gravy.
|
On July 27 2016 06:01 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2016 05:58 xDaunt wrote:On July 27 2016 05:52 Mohdoo wrote:On July 27 2016 05:48 xDaunt wrote:On July 27 2016 05:47 Doodsmack wrote:On July 27 2016 05:45 xDaunt wrote:
The underlying problem with Democrat/Progressive unity is Hillary herself. Looking at the situation in the light most favorable to her, she lacks the charisma to unify the party like Obama did after that nasty primary. Looking at the situation a little more realistically, she clearly is unlikable to a large chunk of the Democrat base, which makes it very difficult to rally behind her. Donald Trump makes it very easy to rally. That theory hasn't worked out so well thus far. People can be livid about Sanders and still vote for Clinton. As an Oregonian, this is basically the case everywhere, especially in Portland. I don't know how to fully convey just how bad people think trump is. People see him as Hitler. People are mad, pissed even that they have to vote Clinton. They are quick to point out Clinton is awful and the worst but that electing trump is just beyond reasonable. Impossible even for them. I have no doubt that there is a large segment of Bernie voters and other progressives/hyper-liberals that is going to vote for Hillary. They don't all have to stay home for Trump to win. My point is that Hillary's own personal negative qualities are a significant drag on her candidacy, which mutual dislike for Trump may not be able to overcome. This problem for Hillary is thoroughly reflected in the current state of the polls -- both in the current standings and in the polls' internals concerning Hillary. Yeah that is certainly the case.
And just to illustrate my point further, for most of the past year, the accepted narrative has been that Hillary was going to curb stomp Trump in a landslide if he became the republican nominee (and I bet that I would have no problem finding many of posters around here reiterating this point). That may still happen, but the current polling does not reflect such an outcome. Very far from it, actually.
|
On July 27 2016 06:05 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2016 06:01 Gorsameth wrote:On July 27 2016 05:58 xDaunt wrote:On July 27 2016 05:52 Mohdoo wrote:On July 27 2016 05:48 xDaunt wrote:On July 27 2016 05:47 Doodsmack wrote:On July 27 2016 05:45 xDaunt wrote:
The underlying problem with Democrat/Progressive unity is Hillary herself. Looking at the situation in the light most favorable to her, she lacks the charisma to unify the party like Obama did after that nasty primary. Looking at the situation a little more realistically, she clearly is unlikable to a large chunk of the Democrat base, which makes it very difficult to rally behind her. Donald Trump makes it very easy to rally. That theory hasn't worked out so well thus far. People can be livid about Sanders and still vote for Clinton. As an Oregonian, this is basically the case everywhere, especially in Portland. I don't know how to fully convey just how bad people think trump is. People see him as Hitler. People are mad, pissed even that they have to vote Clinton. They are quick to point out Clinton is awful and the worst but that electing trump is just beyond reasonable. Impossible even for them. I have no doubt that there is a large segment of Bernie voters and other progressives/hyper-liberals that is going to vote for Hillary. They don't all have to stay home for Trump to win. My point is that Hillary's own personal negative qualities are a significant drag on her candidacy, which mutual dislike for Trump may not be able to overcome. This problem for Hillary is thoroughly reflected in the current state of the polls -- both in the current standings and in the polls' internals concerning Hillary. Yeah that is certainly the case. And just to illustrate my point further, for most of the past year, the accepted narrative has been that Hillary was going to curb stomp Trump in a landslide if he became the republican nominee (and I bet that I would have no problem finding many of posters around here reiterating this point). That may still happen, but the current polling does not reflect such an outcome. Very far from it, actually.
As one of the people who expected Trump to get curb stomped (he still may!) I will say I did not expect America to be so... I don't know the word. Dumb? Disillusioned? Brainwashed? I don't know.
I just know its incredibly sad to see looking in from the outside.
|
It's very disingenuous to look purely at current polling. The only way it's remotely reasonable is if we're willing to assume there will be no bounce whatsoever coming out of the Democratic convention OR the Kaine pick-and neither of those having an effect seems pretty implausible.
If the polls are like this in a week or she only gets a 1 or 2-point bump it's pretty unlikely to become a curbstomp though.
|
On July 27 2016 06:03 Gorsameth wrote:Hate to break it to you but this has nothing to do with free speech...
Yeah, recording people has little to do with free speech.
|
On July 27 2016 06:07 TheTenthDoc wrote:
It's very disingenuous to look purely at current polling. The only way it's remotely reasonable is if we're willing to assume there will be no bounce whatsoever coming out of the Democratic convention OR the Kaine pick-and neither of those having an effect seems pretty implausible.
If the polls are like this in a week or she only gets a 1 or 2-point bump it's pretty unlikely to get a curbstomp though.
I believe Nate Silver referred to convention polling as "inaccurate due to inflated response rates" or something along those lines.
|
United Kingdom13775 Posts
Hillary went from being the massive favorite to being the slight favorite. Trump was solid enough to reach at least parity at the convention after Hillary had a large lead. The race is far from won and Hillary would do well to realize that.
|
On July 27 2016 06:07 TheTenthDoc wrote:
It's very disingenuous to look purely at current polling. The only way it's remotely reasonable is if we're willing to assume there will be no bounce whatsoever coming out of the Democratic convention OR the Kaine pick-and neither of those having an effect seems pretty implausible.
If the polls are like this in a week or she only gets a 1 or 2-point bump it's pretty unlikely to become a curbstomp though.
Even assuming that current polling reflects an artificial and temporary bump for Trump, do you not agree that Trump is greatly outerperforming (and Hillary is greatly underperforming) everyone's expectations?
|
On July 27 2016 06:08 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2016 06:03 Gorsameth wrote:Hate to break it to you but this has nothing to do with free speech... Yeah, recording people has little to do with free speech.
There is a separate civil suit running for recording without consent ect
This dismissal is about using fake ID's and it only got dismissed over a technicality (with them being indited by the jury in a trial against PP)
|
I think everyone is surprised at how well Trump has done in the polls at this point and I hope that the Dems take him deadly serious. I don’t know if he can sustain it, but I have no doubt in the democrats ability to totally fuck this up. These people lost to George Bush twice.
|
On July 27 2016 06:03 Gorsameth wrote:Hate to break it to you but this has nothing to do with free speech...
Muckraking certainly does though.
On July 27 2016 06:14 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2016 06:08 Plansix wrote:On July 27 2016 06:03 Gorsameth wrote:Hate to break it to you but this has nothing to do with free speech... Yeah, recording people has little to do with free speech. There is a separate civil suit running for recording without consent ect This dismissal is about using fake ID's and it only got dismissed over a technicality (with them being indited by the jury in a trial against PP)
There never should have been a presentation to a grand jury, the district attorney is a big Planned Parenthood supporter who shared confidential information with PP and basically got an indictment from a grand jury to help PP. There is very little that is easier to do than getting a grand jury to hand down an indictment, the rules are completely stacked in favor of the prosecution there.
|
On July 27 2016 06:08 Plansix wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2016 06:03 Gorsameth wrote:Hate to break it to you but this has nothing to do with free speech... Yeah, recording people has little to do with free speech.
I was being sarcastic. Thats literally what people think this ruling was about.
Im disappointed that the caps didnt give it away..
|
What the hell is up with this guy endorsing Hillary now?
|
? The first amendment doesn't permit you to use fake IDs lol
Edit: I didn't realize the sarcasm, my bad 
|
On July 27 2016 06:16 DeepElemBlues wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2016 06:03 Gorsameth wrote:Hate to break it to you but this has nothing to do with free speech... Muckraking certainly does though.
See the reply I just did to Plansix.
On July 27 2016 06:14 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2016 06:08 Plansix wrote:On July 27 2016 06:03 Gorsameth wrote:Hate to break it to you but this has nothing to do with free speech... Yeah, recording people has little to do with free speech. There is a separate civil suit running for recording without consent ect This dismissal is about using fake ID's and it only got dismissed over a technicality (with them being indited by the jury in a trial against PP)
|
On July 27 2016 05:52 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2016 05:48 xDaunt wrote:On July 27 2016 05:47 Doodsmack wrote:On July 27 2016 05:45 xDaunt wrote:
The underlying problem with Democrat/Progressive unity is Hillary herself. Looking at the situation in the light most favorable to her, she lacks the charisma to unify the party like Obama did after that nasty primary. Looking at the situation a little more realistically, she clearly is unlikable to a large chunk of the Democrat base, which makes it very difficult to rally behind her. Donald Trump makes it very easy to rally. That theory hasn't worked out so well thus far. People can be livid about Sanders and still vote for Clinton. As an Oregonian, this is basically the case everywhere, especially in Portland. I don't know how to fully convey just how bad people think trump is. People see him as Hitler. People are mad, pissed even that they have to vote Clinton. They are quick to point out Clinton is awful and the worst but that electing trump is just beyond reasonable. Impossible even for them.
Portland is not very representative of the country. Place is weird as hell and is one of the most liberal places in the country.
|
On July 27 2016 06:17 Rebs wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2016 06:08 Plansix wrote:On July 27 2016 06:03 Gorsameth wrote:Hate to break it to you but this has nothing to do with free speech... Yeah, recording people has little to do with free speech. I was being sarcastic. Thats literally what people think this ruling was about. Im disappointed that the caps didnt give it away..
The lack of context and really shitty posting for the last 5 pages confused us all.
|
On July 27 2016 06:12 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On July 27 2016 06:07 TheTenthDoc wrote:
It's very disingenuous to look purely at current polling. The only way it's remotely reasonable is if we're willing to assume there will be no bounce whatsoever coming out of the Democratic convention OR the Kaine pick-and neither of those having an effect seems pretty implausible.
If the polls are like this in a week or she only gets a 1 or 2-point bump it's pretty unlikely to become a curbstomp though. Even assuming that current polling reflects an artificial and temporary bump for Trump, do you not agree that Trump is greatly outerperforming (and Hillary is greatly underperforming) everyone's expectations?
I think an Obama-over-Romney margin was about what I'd expect, and that was 3.9%. I would call it a curbstomp too (even if the campaign was convinced otherwise). If she gets an analogous poll bounce to Trump she might get to 3% after the convention, and Obama might help that further. So it's somewhat underperforming but greatly seems too much.
I think what I'm mostly surprised at is the third party popularity, which makes maintaining a flat percentage lead a good bit more difficult.
I will say Trump is...kind of...overperforming expectations greatly, but I think dedicated analysts didn't think this was going to be a truly ridiculous 10 point edge or something bar in hyperbole (unless they were thinking with their hearts).
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
