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On July 23 2016 02:24 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2016 02:17 zlefin wrote:
or at least the blame people place on NAFTA, regardless of the accuracy thereof.
Though there's gonna be a lot of factors in play; hard to say which ones were the most relevant. When it comes to the issues, I think that it is pretty clear at this point that trade policy/blue collar economic interests will be the dominant issue, along with immigration and terrorism. As things are going, Hillary is decidedly disadvantaged in these areas. Hillary is arguably stronger on the lesser issues, but I don't think that they are going to drive people like the big ones previously listed. Hillary's saving grace is that Trump is an asshole, but this advantage is offset to at least some degree by her own personal baggage. The democrats really have disadvantaged themselves by coronating Hillary instead of running a truly open and competitive primary.
Those are the dominant issues for Trump's primary supporters, that's for sure. I'm not sure about others.
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On July 23 2016 02:34 Doodsmack wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2016 02:24 xDaunt wrote:On July 23 2016 02:17 zlefin wrote:
or at least the blame people place on NAFTA, regardless of the accuracy thereof.
Though there's gonna be a lot of factors in play; hard to say which ones were the most relevant. When it comes to the issues, I think that it is pretty clear at this point that trade policy/blue collar economic interests will be the dominant issue, along with immigration and terrorism. As things are going, Hillary is decidedly disadvantaged in these areas. Hillary is arguably stronger on the lesser issues, but I don't think that they are going to drive people like the big ones previously listed. Hillary's saving grace is that Trump is an asshole, but this advantage is offset to at least some degree by her own personal baggage. The democrats really have disadvantaged themselves by coronating Hillary instead of running a truly open and competitive primary. Those are the dominant issues for Trump's primary supporters, that's for sure. I'm not sure about others.
More specifically, those are the issues where Trump can steal Democrat votes, which is why they're his strength.
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I wouldn't be so sure about those issues with any group other than blue collar white men, and the rest of Trump's primary supporters. Democrats and independents may see Trump's position on them as extreme; I see no reason to assume those issues are major threats for Hillary.
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On July 23 2016 02:41 Doodsmack wrote:
I wouldn't be so sure about those issues with any group other than blue collar white men, and the rest of Trump's primary supporters. Democrats and independents may see Trump's position on them as extreme; I see no reason to assume those issues are major threats for Hillary.
Well, the trade policy/blue collar interest issues are precisely the ones on which Hillary had trouble with Bernie on. It's not going to be any easier when she's facing Trump. There's a reason why Trump declared that Bernie supporters were going to vote for him due to these issues last night.
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On July 23 2016 02:43 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2016 02:41 Doodsmack wrote:
I wouldn't be so sure about those issues with any group other than blue collar white men, and the rest of Trump's primary supporters. Democrats and independents may see Trump's position on them as extreme; I see no reason to assume those issues are major threats for Hillary. There's a reason why Trump declared that Bernie supporters were going to vote for him due to these issues last night.
There's also a reason why Bernie denounced Trump's shout out and denounces Trump in strong terms.
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Furthermore, blue collar Democrats that vote in people like Marcy Kaptur are not going to switch to Trump lol
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On July 23 2016 02:47 farvacola wrote:
Furthermore, blue collar Democrats that vote in people like Marcy Kaptur are not going to switch to Trump lol
Agreed. And Clinton could also simply say Trump is wrong and it’s cooperate tax dodging, stagnated minimum wage, rising housing costs, crippling student debt and like the 2000 other real reasons the middle class feels fucked. I am not really convinced blue collar, pro-union democrats are going to jump on the Trump/GOP train.
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I expect some will, but most won't; not sure what %. somehwere in the 5-20% range to make a wild guess.
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Canada11587 Posts
On July 23 2016 00:12 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2016 00:01 KwarK wrote:Fun update on that story where there was a black social worker and his autistic patient and the police decided to corner them with guns. For those who didn't know, the black guy lay on the ground, arms up in the air shouting to the police that he was unarmed, that he was a social worker, that the patient sitting next to him was also unarmed and was his autistic patient, that what he was holding was a toy truck and that he didn't understand to lie down. He also did all he could to encourage the patient to lie down without lowering his own arms because he didn't want to get shot. The police then shot him (black social worker lying on the ground with arms in the air) and handcuffed him while he asked them why they shot him and the shooter replied "I don't know". The police have now explained that they actually meant to shoot the autistic guy sitting on the ground playing with his toy truck and that they just missed and hit the social worker, lying on the ground with his arms in the air while trying to explain that neither of them were remotely armed and dangerous and that his patient didn't understand them. I'm not sure how they missed and accidentally handcuffed the social worker instead of the autistic guy but I guess it just shows more training is needed. + Show Spoiler [old video] + I wonder if their current training includes being told that everyone is out to get them. I'm not convinced more training is as needed as different training.
It's actually bizarre, and I'm so glad it's not a situation I have to deal with.
I had forgotten, but I have actually had cops called on my friend and I because there were 'people running around with machine guns. It sounds like a warzone.' Because I guess people are dumb and don't know what paint ball guns look and sound like. Now the police asked the lady reporting whether it sounded like 'pop, pop, pop' and when she replied in the affirmative, they knew what they were getting into, sent two RCMP and brought our group together and talked with us. Turned out we were still in city limits and needed to play elsewhere despite having permission from the owner of the forest. Fair play. But none of this guns drawn, lay down, and get your hands in the air etc.
I feel like were I black and in the US, I'd find myself dead in police shooting. Yes, the context is different because more people are packing in the US, but there still needs to be allowance for dumb people making bad reports to the police rather turning it into another target practice session for police.
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On July 23 2016 00:41 zeo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2016 00:36 xDaunt wrote:On July 23 2016 00:33 KwarK wrote:On July 23 2016 00:29 biology]major wrote:
When asked in a town hall a while back what his weakness was, trump said: "I never let things go". Saying he never forgives people who cross him. Pretty sure Cruz is going to be reminded ad nauseum by trump anytime he does anything political in the future Unless Trump loses the election. Then Cruz will be the guy standing there saying "I tried to stop you guys collectively following an idiot into a Hillary Presidency". Trump is only a good idea if he wins. Even if Trump loses, I don't see Cruz being well-positioned to be the nominee in 2020. First, Cruz is bereft of allies in the party. Second, the republican party was redefined last night. Cruz isn't going to fit the mold that Trump has created. Yeah, Cruz committed political suicide.
No he didn't, lol. His base supporters aren't going to abandon him over something most of them wanted anyway.
He's positioning himself well to be an "anti-Trump" Republican through 2024.
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this makes it sounder than it really is, but all the democrats have to do is show that there's another way to make lives better and trump's entire argument crumbles. his argument is very much "i am your only hope". all the democrats have to do is show he's not.
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On July 23 2016 03:01 ticklishmusic wrote:
this makes it sounder than it really is, but all the democrats have to do is show that there's another way to make lives better and trump's entire argument crumbles. his argument is very much "i am your only hope". all the democrats have to do is show he's not.
They have had 8 years to do so. Trump can just hammer that.
Show how much worse several statistics have become over the past 8 years.
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On July 23 2016 01:48 GGTeMpLaR wrote:Don't forget it was the Cruz campaign that 'accidentally' posted a nude photo of Trump's wife that started the entire slugfest.People just want to forget it was an escalation of conflict and just assume this is another example of 'Trump playing dirty' by attacking Cruz's wife without motivation because they plays into their confirmation bias of him being the worst thing ever.
That is untrue, and something the Trump camp burped up as an excuse.
Meanwhile I love that Cruz (and Kasich) are living in his head. When Trump loses, who are his scape goats? Cruz, Kasich, Pence, or "the party" fot not helping enough?
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ticklish -> There's already more than enough proof that trump doesn't actually have a real plan to make people's lives better; and that there are alternatives. some people just ignored it or refused to see it.
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On July 23 2016 03:03 pmh wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2016 03:01 ticklishmusic wrote:
this makes it sounder than it really is, but all the democrats have to do is show that there's another way to make lives better and trump's entire argument crumbles. his argument is very much "i am your only hope". all the democrats have to do is show he's not. They have had 8 years to do so. Trump can just hammer that. Show how much worse several statistics have become over the past 8 years.
Bingo.
Of course, the Limbaugh Theorem is still in play. To remind everyone:
+ Show Spoiler +Rush Limbaugh said:
Basically I evolved the Limbaugh Theorem to explain something that didn't make any sense to me. I saw polls which showed the American people by vast majorities supported Obama's agenda, and yet every aspect of it they opposed. They didn't associate him with it. It was a New York Times story. I'll never forget it. The American people opposed the direction the country's going, and issue by issue by issue they opposed everything Obama was doing. Every element of the Obama agenda, a majority of the people oppose it, and yet they support him by 50, 55%. I said, "How can this be?"
There's only one answer. People do not associate Obama with his agenda, and that's because he's permanently campaigning. He's running against his own agenda, by design, on purpose. He's running against what's happening. He makes people think that he doesn't like what's happening and he's trying to fix it when in fact everything that's happening is precisely because he wants it to and has made it happen.
Trump has his work cut out for him. I feel like Democrats will be blaming Bush well into the next century.... lol
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On July 23 2016 02:43 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2016 02:41 Doodsmack wrote:
I wouldn't be so sure about those issues with any group other than blue collar white men, and the rest of Trump's primary supporters. Democrats and independents may see Trump's position on them as extreme; I see no reason to assume those issues are major threats for Hillary. Well, the trade policy/blue collar interest issues are precisely the ones on which Hillary had trouble with Bernie on. It's not going to be any easier when she's facing Trump. There's a reason why Trump declared that Bernie supporters were going to vote for him due to these issues last night.
Your right but just because someone prefers Bernie over Clinton on trade policy/blue collar interest does not mean they are willing to accept all the other baggage that comes with Trump.
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On July 23 2016 03:09 Cowboy24 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2016 03:03 pmh wrote:On July 23 2016 03:01 ticklishmusic wrote:
this makes it sounder than it really is, but all the democrats have to do is show that there's another way to make lives better and trump's entire argument crumbles. his argument is very much "i am your only hope". all the democrats have to do is show he's not. They have had 8 years to do so. Trump can just hammer that. Show how much worse several statistics have become over the past 8 years. Bingo. Of course, the Limbaugh Theorem is still in play. To remind everyone: + Show Spoiler +Rush Limbaugh said:
Basically I evolved the Limbaugh Theorem to explain something that didn't make any sense to me. I saw polls which showed the American people by vast majorities supported Obama's agenda, and yet every aspect of it they opposed. They didn't associate him with it. It was a New York Times story. I'll never forget it. The American people opposed the direction the country's going, and issue by issue by issue they opposed everything Obama was doing. Every element of the Obama agenda, a majority of the people oppose it, and yet they support him by 50, 55%. I said, "How can this be?"
There's only one answer. People do not associate Obama with his agenda, and that's because he's permanently campaigning. He's running against his own agenda, by design, on purpose. He's running against what's happening. He makes people think that he doesn't like what's happening and he's trying to fix it when in fact everything that's happening is precisely because he wants it to and has made it happen. Trump has his work cut out for him. I feel like Democrats will be blaming Bush well into the next century.... lol
I wonder if that is because it Congress who has the ability to fix those things and Obama cant do anything with the current Congress....
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On July 23 2016 03:17 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2016 03:09 Cowboy24 wrote:On July 23 2016 03:03 pmh wrote:On July 23 2016 03:01 ticklishmusic wrote:
this makes it sounder than it really is, but all the democrats have to do is show that there's another way to make lives better and trump's entire argument crumbles. his argument is very much "i am your only hope". all the democrats have to do is show he's not. They have had 8 years to do so. Trump can just hammer that. Show how much worse several statistics have become over the past 8 years. Bingo. Of course, the Limbaugh Theorem is still in play. To remind everyone: + Show Spoiler +Rush Limbaugh said:
Basically I evolved the Limbaugh Theorem to explain something that didn't make any sense to me. I saw polls which showed the American people by vast majorities supported Obama's agenda, and yet every aspect of it they opposed. They didn't associate him with it. It was a New York Times story. I'll never forget it. The American people opposed the direction the country's going, and issue by issue by issue they opposed everything Obama was doing. Every element of the Obama agenda, a majority of the people oppose it, and yet they support him by 50, 55%. I said, "How can this be?"
There's only one answer. People do not associate Obama with his agenda, and that's because he's permanently campaigning. He's running against his own agenda, by design, on purpose. He's running against what's happening. He makes people think that he doesn't like what's happening and he's trying to fix it when in fact everything that's happening is precisely because he wants it to and has made it happen. Trump has his work cut out for him. I feel like Democrats will be blaming Bush well into the next century.... lol I wonder if that is because it Congress who has the ability to fix those things and Obama cant do anything with the current Congress....
There is no possible way that Clinton will be able to make the argument that congress, with the lowest approval ratings in like forever, is mostly responsible for these problems. People would never buy that.
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On July 23 2016 03:13 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2016 02:43 xDaunt wrote:On July 23 2016 02:41 Doodsmack wrote:
I wouldn't be so sure about those issues with any group other than blue collar white men, and the rest of Trump's primary supporters. Democrats and independents may see Trump's position on them as extreme; I see no reason to assume those issues are major threats for Hillary. Well, the trade policy/blue collar interest issues are precisely the ones on which Hillary had trouble with Bernie on. It's not going to be any easier when she's facing Trump. There's a reason why Trump declared that Bernie supporters were going to vote for him due to these issues last night. Your right but just because someone prefers Bernie over Clinton on trade policy/blue collar interest does not mean they are willing to accept all the other baggage that comes with Trump.
Yes, this is the big gamble.
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