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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 3416

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9316 Posts
March 21 2016 20:06 GMT
#68301
I don't think Trump wanted Germany to put on their superpower pants and take care of the Ukrainian crisis. I can only guess but more reasonable interpretation would be that he used Germany as an example of a Western European country. His voters seem to like simplifications and scapegoating so it would make sense for Trump to just point his finger at Germany and say some angry words.
You're now breathing manually
Deleted User 137586
Profile Joined January 2011
7859 Posts
March 21 2016 20:12 GMT
#68302
On March 22 2016 05:06 Sent. wrote:
I don't think Trump wanted Germany to put on their superpower pants and take care of the Ukrainian crisis. I can only guess but more reasonable interpretation would be that he used Germany as an example of a Western European country. His voters seem to like simplifications and scapegoating so it would make sense for Trump to just point his finger at Germany and say some angry words.


I think that's likely. Especially as he also called out South Korea for not pulling its weight, while South Korea spends a lot of its GDP on defense; South Korea's military spending as percent of its GDP is roughly in the same ballpark as the US, but because it's poorer, this means South Korea spends roughly 10% of their annual budget on defense.
Cry 'havoc' and let slip the dogs of war
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States24059 Posts
March 21 2016 20:13 GMT
#68303
On March 22 2016 04:01 oneofthem wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 22 2016 00:20 Ghanburighan wrote:
On March 21 2016 23:54 Soularion wrote:
John Oliver's Border Wall video was pretty damn great and pointed out a lot of flaws in the idea- it's really neat to see his coverage around election year.

Do any of you guys think a path to the nomination remains for Sanders if he loses Arizona, or is this the final do-or-die moment of his campaign?


If you want a spectacular do-or-die moment, it will be April 19th, New York. He would need the greatest polling error in history and then some to stay viable. If he doesn't outperform 57.5 there, the margins become unreasonable as that's about a sixth of the delegates he needs to catch up on. Correct me if my math is wrong, but I think a tie there effectively sens his margins above 2/3.

he will get rekt so hard

morons would be trying to REGISTER VOTERS only to find out new york is closed already hahaha.


hillary should really try to make supporting cuny an issue in new york. the state is apparently trying to kill it



Yeah I'm guessing Hillary's camp isn't too current with registering since they are avoiding registering young (new) voters like the plague.

The deadline for switching affiliations has passed (before the race even really started) but new voters can register still, hence why thousands have been getting registered.

MAIL REGISTRATION (N.Y. Election Law Section 5-210(3))
Application must be postmarked no later than March 25th and received by a board of elections no later than March 30th to be eligible to vote in the Primary.


"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
frazzle
Profile Joined June 2012
United States468 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-21 20:37:55
March 21 2016 20:33 GMT
#68304
On March 22 2016 05:12 Ghanburighan wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 22 2016 05:06 Sent. wrote:
I don't think Trump wanted Germany to put on their superpower pants and take care of the Ukrainian crisis. I can only guess but more reasonable interpretation would be that he used Germany as an example of a Western European country. His voters seem to like simplifications and scapegoating so it would make sense for Trump to just point his finger at Germany and say some angry words.


I think that's likely. Especially as he also called out South Korea for not pulling its weight, while South Korea spends a lot of its GDP on defense; South Korea's military spending as percent of its GDP is roughly in the same ballpark as the US, but because it's poorer, this means South Korea spends roughly 10% of their annual budget on defense.

To clarify, the total Korean budget is around $340B US Dollars, defense spending is about $34-37B (10% of the budget). That is 2.4%-2.6% of GDP. The US is at $600B in defense spending out of a budget of 3.8 Trillion, so 16% of the budget. That's 3.3% of GDP.

I think they are ranked 9th or 10th in the world.

Edit: Interestingly, Germany is higher ranked than South Korea in total spending and at only 1.1% of GDP. If Germany went to 1.5% of GDP they would spend approximately as much as Russia (who is at 4.1% of GDP).
puerk
Profile Joined February 2015
Germany855 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-21 20:36:27
March 21 2016 20:35 GMT
#68305
On March 22 2016 05:01 oneofthem wrote:
don't think germans are predisposed to be militaristic and aggressive, but they are also a bit behind on modernization of teh military, particularly their airforce.

it would be nice if they could buy 300 f35s. but eads would not allow that.

for one of those symmetrical big air battles between comparable airforces that happen all the time?

it is weird how people think europe is still a place held together by military power, when trade and prosperity (which are currently suffering, and should be looked at from a redistributive policy perspective) proved to be a much stronger and lasting force.

nobody thinks about a reeruption of a french german war, that has gone on as a sincere rivalery for centuries, because we are closer and better off than at any time someone tried to war or build an empire.

europes economy is not based on resources, it is mostly about services and advanced know how, you do not get that by invading, there is literally zero reason to expect any kind of symmetric conflict (regarding actors) to happen on european soil. an other way to put it: the land is useless, the humans are everything. (and u usually don't get the humans by genociding and carpetbombing)
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
March 21 2016 20:36 GMT
#68306
South Korea also has mandatory military service and is more focused on guarding a single border while the US has voluntary service and plays world police (for better or for worse). IDK about what sort of post-service benefits SK provides either (I'm guessing less), but we spend a lot on veteran's benefits, even if those benefits kind of suck sometimes.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
CannonsNCarriers
Profile Joined April 2010
United States638 Posts
March 21 2016 20:38 GMT
#68307
Trump is coming out as Pro-Putin. His previous Putin praising remarks were not quite enough, but calling for a NATO pull out is definitive. If you want the USA to be able to pressure Russia into NOT invading its neighbors, then you need the USA in NATO. If the USA pulls out of NATO, we can expect its strength to collapse and conventional deterrent forces in the East to be dilapidated shells.

For reference, contrast Trump's concrete call for a NATO pull out and all the poo flung at Obama over Putin over the years. Trump is legitimately calling for capitulation against Russian expansion here. Obama has maintained our commitments and moved a few brigades east.
Dun tuch my cheezbrgr
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18865 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-21 20:41:50
March 21 2016 20:41 GMT
#68308
"Trump is afraid/in cahoots with Russia" seems like a nice line of attack
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
FuzzyJAM
Profile Joined July 2010
Scotland9300 Posts
March 21 2016 20:44 GMT
#68309
On March 22 2016 05:38 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
Trump is coming out as Pro-Putin. His previous Putin praising remarks were not quite enough, but calling for a NATO pull out is definitive. If you want the USA to be able to pressure Russia into NOT invading its neighbors, then you need the USA in NATO. If the USA pulls out of NATO, we can expect its strength to collapse and conventional deterrent forces in the East to be dilapidated shells.

For reference, contrast Trump's concrete call for a NATO pull out and all the poo flung at Obama over Putin over the years. Trump is legitimately calling for capitulation against Russian expansion here. Obama has maintained our commitments and moved a few brigades east.

Who's Russia going to invade?
Did you ever say Yes to a single joy?
CannonsNCarriers
Profile Joined April 2010
United States638 Posts
March 21 2016 20:50 GMT
#68310
On March 22 2016 05:44 FuzzyJAM wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 22 2016 05:38 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
Trump is coming out as Pro-Putin. His previous Putin praising remarks were not quite enough, but calling for a NATO pull out is definitive. If you want the USA to be able to pressure Russia into NOT invading its neighbors, then you need the USA in NATO. If the USA pulls out of NATO, we can expect its strength to collapse and conventional deterrent forces in the East to be dilapidated shells.

For reference, contrast Trump's concrete call for a NATO pull out and all the poo flung at Obama over Putin over the years. Trump is legitimately calling for capitulation against Russian expansion here. Obama has maintained our commitments and moved a few brigades east.

Who's Russia going to invade?


Belarus, Latvia, Estonia, and Moldova are under threat.

Check out the troop movements:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/12149403/Nato-may-deploy-thousands-of-troops-in-Europe-to-ward-off-Russia.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/02/world/europe/us-fortifying-europes-east-to-deter-putin.html

Dun tuch my cheezbrgr
CannonsNCarriers
Profile Joined April 2010
United States638 Posts
March 21 2016 20:52 GMT
#68311
On March 22 2016 05:41 farvacola wrote:
"Trump is afraid/in cahoots with Russia" seems like a nice line of attack


For sure cahoots. Trump envies Putin's tough guy image and wants to be a popular strong man just like him.

Fear of Russian hybrid wars is entirely justified in light of the Ukraine/Crimea debacle. Obama/Clinton/Every last senior USAMIL Officer is rightly concerned about the possibility of another Russian hybrid war in Russia's near abroad. These things start as pseudo revolutions with partisans, and rapidly move into flagless special forces moving in to work with the partisans. Russian media then pollutes the airwaves with nonsense about CIA forces and denials of Russian movement.
Dun tuch my cheezbrgr
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
March 21 2016 20:53 GMT
#68312
More than 40 millionaires on Monday asked New York state to raise taxes on the wealthy, under what they called a “1% plan for tax fairness”.

“As New Yorkers who have contributed to and benefited from the economic vibrancy of our state, we have both the ability and the responsibility to pay our fair share,” the millionaires said in an open letter to Governor Andrew Cuomo and state lawmakers.

Saying they were “deeply concerned that too many New Yorkers are struggling economically, and the state’s ailing infrastructure is in desperate need of attention”, the millionaires urged “the governor and the legislature” to pass “the 1% Plan for New York Tax Fairness”.

The letter was put together with the Fiscal Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank, and the Responsible Wealth project, a network of hundreds of the wealthiest Americans who support “fair taxes and corporate accountability”.

Among the backers of the plan are Steven Rockefeller, a fourth-generation member of the Rockefeller family; Elspeth Gilmore, who works to get wealthy people under 35 to donate to philanthropic efforts; and Joshua Mailman, son of the inventor and philanthropist Joseph Mailman.

The signees emphasized that funds are needed to address issues such as child poverty, homelessness and crumbling infrastructure.

“It is a shameful fact that child poverty in New York state is at a record level,” they wrote, “exceeding 50% in some of our urban centers. New York State has a record number of homeless families – more than 80,000 people – struggling to survive across the state. And far too many adults in our state do not have the work skills needed for the 21st-century economy.”

The millionaires added: “These human and physical infrastructure investments will pay off in the creation of new jobs, a workforce prepared to fill them and a reduction in the extreme income inequality that currently exists in our state.”

Lewis Cullman, retired chief executive of the At-A-Glance appointment book company, said he supported the plan because philanthropy does not pay for things such as street maintenance, food inspections or public schools.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
FuzzyJAM
Profile Joined July 2010
Scotland9300 Posts
March 21 2016 20:55 GMT
#68313
On March 22 2016 05:50 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 22 2016 05:44 FuzzyJAM wrote:
On March 22 2016 05:38 CannonsNCarriers wrote:
Trump is coming out as Pro-Putin. His previous Putin praising remarks were not quite enough, but calling for a NATO pull out is definitive. If you want the USA to be able to pressure Russia into NOT invading its neighbors, then you need the USA in NATO. If the USA pulls out of NATO, we can expect its strength to collapse and conventional deterrent forces in the East to be dilapidated shells.

For reference, contrast Trump's concrete call for a NATO pull out and all the poo flung at Obama over Putin over the years. Trump is legitimately calling for capitulation against Russian expansion here. Obama has maintained our commitments and moved a few brigades east.

Who's Russia going to invade?


Belarus, Latvia, Estonia, and Moldova are under threat.

Check out the troop movements:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/12149403/Nato-may-deploy-thousands-of-troops-in-Europe-to-ward-off-Russia.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/02/world/europe/us-fortifying-europes-east-to-deter-putin.html


Pretty sure those links conclusively prove that Russia is about to be invaded by NATO.
Did you ever say Yes to a single joy?
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-21 21:00:32
March 21 2016 20:58 GMT
#68314
On March 22 2016 05:35 puerk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 22 2016 05:01 oneofthem wrote:
don't think germans are predisposed to be militaristic and aggressive, but they are also a bit behind on modernization of teh military, particularly their airforce.

it would be nice if they could buy 300 f35s. but eads would not allow that.

for one of those symmetrical big air battles between comparable airforces that happen all the time?

it is weird how people think europe is still a place held together by military power, when trade and prosperity (which are currently suffering, and should be looked at from a redistributive policy perspective) proved to be a much stronger and lasting force.

nobody thinks about a reeruption of a french german war, that has gone on as a sincere rivalery for centuries, because we are closer and better off than at any time someone tried to war or build an empire.

europes economy is not based on resources, it is mostly about services and advanced know how, you do not get that by invading, there is literally zero reason to expect any kind of symmetric conflict (regarding actors) to happen on european soil. an other way to put it: the land is useless, the humans are everything. (and u usually don't get the humans by genociding and carpetbombing)

point of defense technology is not to use them but to deter wars between big powers.

germany currently has like no airforce. if they get some air power projection that would really bolster the eastern europe deterrence force. this is really beyond arguable.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
March 21 2016 21:00 GMT
#68315
Be nice if Germany bought a few tens of billions of materiel from the US, would also reduce our cost per plane a lot by letting us amortize that research budget...
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Velr
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Switzerland10910 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-21 21:03:27
March 21 2016 21:03 GMT
#68316
Thing about europe is, as weak as it looks soetimes, if it really wants to, it still could outspend basically any other power in the world. There is enough money, there is enough tech, there is enough of everything...

But let's hope it will never come to that...
oneofthem
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
March 21 2016 21:05 GMT
#68317
On March 22 2016 06:03 Velr wrote:
Thing about europe is, as weak as it looks soetimes, if it really wants to, it still could outspend basically any other power in the world. There is enough money, there is enough tech, there is enough of everything...

But let's hope it will never come to that...

modern high tech equipment isn't very fast to build even with the money. you need some planning. just thinking of pumping up production when the threat is imminent is just not going to happen without the production lines already in place.
We have fed the heart on fantasies, the heart's grown brutal from the fare, more substance in our enmities than in our love
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States44142 Posts
March 21 2016 21:06 GMT
#68318
A few tens of billions? So like one F-35?
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
March 21 2016 21:11 GMT
#68319
On March 22 2016 06:06 KwarK wrote:
A few tens of billions? So like one F-35?

Full scale war of any kind would quickly force those inefficient monsters out of the production. That would be on the only boon, the removal of the F-35 from existence.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-21 21:12:23
March 21 2016 21:11 GMT
#68320
On March 22 2016 06:06 KwarK wrote:
A few tens of billions? So like one F-35?


Maybe two, we'd give them a discount or something. Heck, it might even be worth to give them away for free since theoretically since we'd be saving a ton of money by letting Germany take on a bigger part of Eastern European defense.

And then we can gouge them for spare parts and maintenance huehuehue
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
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