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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
On March 21 2016 23:54 Soularion wrote:
John Oliver's Border Wall video was pretty damn great and pointed out a lot of flaws in the idea- it's really neat to see his coverage around election year.
Do any of you guys think a path to the nomination remains for Sanders if he loses Arizona, or is this the final do-or-die moment of his campaign?
he is already dead. needing to win every single state with 58-42 is not going to happen.
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I learned how to say "steaming pile of shit with an orange wig on" in Japanese: ドナルド・トランプ
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On March 21 2016 23:54 Soularion wrote:
John Oliver's Border Wall video was pretty damn great and pointed out a lot of flaws in the idea- it's really neat to see his coverage around election year.
Do any of you guys think a path to the nomination remains for Sanders if he loses Arizona, or is this the final do-or-die moment of his campaign?
If you want a spectacular do-or-die moment, it will be April 19th, New York. He would need the greatest polling error in history and then some to stay viable. If he doesn't outperform 57.5 there, the margins become unreasonable as that's about a sixth of the delegates he needs to catch up on. Correct me if my math is wrong, but I think a tie there effectively sens his margins above 2/3.
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President Obama kicked off his official visit to Cuba on Monday by laying a wreath at the foot of a memorial to Cuba's independence hero and poet José Martí.
It's worth pausing on that for a minute. The statue of Martí is also at the center of La Plaza de la Revolucíon, a square as important and revered in Cuba as Moscow's Red Square or Beijing's Tiananmen Square. On the other side, in the distance the buildings for the ministries of defense and interior are framed with outline portraits of Ernesto "Che" Guevara and Camilo Cienfuegos, two of the country's bearded revolutionary heroes.
Fidel Castro used to give lengthy speeches at the square to huge crowds and often denounced American imperialism.
Today, President Obama stood before the statue of Martí solemnly as a Cuban military band played The Star Spangled Banner.
A few minutes later, and the first time in almost 90 years, a Cuban president welcomed an American president.
Raúl Castro shook Obama's hand at the at the Palace of the Revolution in Havana making history and bringing a symbolic end to one of the last detente's of the Cold War.
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On March 22 2016 00:20 Ghanburighan wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2016 23:54 Soularion wrote:
John Oliver's Border Wall video was pretty damn great and pointed out a lot of flaws in the idea- it's really neat to see his coverage around election year.
Do any of you guys think a path to the nomination remains for Sanders if he loses Arizona, or is this the final do-or-die moment of his campaign? If you want a spectacular do-or-die moment, it will be April 19th, New York. He would need the greatest polling error in history and then some to stay viable. If he doesn't outperform 57.5 there, the margins become unreasonable as that's about a sixth of the delegates he needs to catch up on. Correct me if my math is wrong, but I think a tie there effectively sens his margins above 2/3.
For context: he's polling 50 points behind in NY. I think the actual margin will be somewhat closer, but if the best he can do is another version of "80 years ago I wasn't even born yet so this is a real victory for the revolution" then he should get out there.
The inconvenient truth is that Clinton was a pretty popular 2-term Senator... who left there on her own terms to become Secretary of State. Oh, and Wall Street is kind of located there. I'm curious how he's going to make a play for NYC given his Wall Street shtick. I doubt the "I was born there" bit is going to help at all, it didn't seem to help Clinton much in Illinois, and it's of less value that the I-marched-with-MLK thing for civil rights. Basically, you can't try and use credit from 50, 60 years ago. There's kind of a half-life or expiration date to these things.
Big organizations typically take time to die. From a operational perspective, as long as you can keep shuffling cash around you can keep going. For strategic purposes, the Sanders campaign is essentially dead. He started off trying to run up a steep hill in a stiff breeze (as a 70 year old guy). Now he's climbing Mt. Everest in his underwear without a Sherpa.
I'm fine with Sanders staying in, but he needs to tone down the attacks. To me, him running a negative campaign while insisting he's not is worse than straight up running a negative campaign. His economic message is valuable and should be heard (though he could stand to buff on the specifics or go back to broader themes). The insults, well, there's enough from the right as it is.
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The supreme court on Monday rejected an effort by Nebraska and Oklahoma to have Colorado’s pot legalisation declared unconstitutional.
The justices did not comment about their dismissal of the lawsuit that the states filed directly against their neighbour.
The court also ordered Massachusetts’ top court to look again at the state’s ban on stun guns.
Nebraska and Oklahoma argued that Colorado’s law allowing recreational marijuana use by adults ran foul of federal anti-drug laws. The states also said that legalised pot in Colorado was spilling across the borders, complicating their own anti-drug efforts and draining state resources.
The Obama administration sided with Colorado, despite its opposition to making marijuana use legal.
Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito would have heard the states’ lawsuit.
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Given that Kennedy now needs to be a part of the 4-vote conservative desire to hear a case, the Court's refusal to hear Nebraska and Oklahoma's case ought not be too surprising.
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I don't remember if this was posted recently or not, but Obama's RCP average approval numbers are back to being positive. This is good news for Clinton and the Democrats if it holds/keeps going up until November.
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Canada11395 Posts
On March 21 2016 20:54 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2016 15:49 Falling wrote:On March 21 2016 08:10 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:On March 21 2016 00:45 frazzle wrote:On March 20 2016 17:41 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
The irony of a democrat supporter wearing a KKK outfit to a republican rally makes me chuckle.I'm guessing he's more a Sanders man but someone at least needs to remind him even in modern times Hillary went to Sen. Robert Byrds funeral and paid respects. Right. So David Duke has renounced white nationalism? That is news to me. You guys always need to bend the context so grotesquely to make your points. Any cursory search shows Byrd renounced his KKK ties long ago and changed his views while still, like most old men of that time, making a gaffe here and there. But you NEED him to have died a KKK goon to create a counter narrative to the Southern Strategy. And of course there's that. Everyone who bothers to learn anything of American politics in the Civil Rights and Nixon Era learns of the Southern Strategy when all the racists who resented the Democrat push behind the Civil Rights movement were courted by the Republican party. But you NEED to keep trying to associate the Democratic party with it's links to the KKK from 50 years ago plus, when you know full well the Republican party enthusiastically embraced their supporters beginning with the Goldwater presidential campaign as a cynical effort to remain electorally viable. Meanwhile your likely nominee for president quite obviously circumlocutes the whole David Duke endorsement refusing to repudiate it because he knows he probably needs the racist vote to get elected. He just needs to figure out how to work the dogwhistle. Byrd was a KKK recruiter in his 20s and 30s so while it's cute you think he changed his views i believe if you're that deep in racism you always hold those views.A KKK recruiter for fucks sake! As for the rest recall LBJ saying "We will have these ni**ers voting democratic for the next 200 years"? The opening of borders, immigration act 1965? Democrats like to portray themselves as "allies" of African Americans but in reality they have made their economic situation worse by bringing in tens of millions of low skilled migrants who compete for work. Do you believe people can change? Like really and truly change? Because I do. I know nothing about this Byrd fellow and have no horse in this race, but I do believe people can change... even the most stubborn racist. But am I wrong in thinking you believe people become programmed and at some point are incapable of change? Because from that short article, it seems that his actions were radically different in the end from the beginning. Don't you suppose people going to his funeral were looking at the end of his life? Or do we discount every change of heart and forever hold their toes to the fire for actions and beliefs they entirely disavow. No.I think if you hold those views so strongly when you are young you will always hold onto them. I don't believe Michael Richards apology was sincere either for what it's worth if you want another example.
Right. But would you say a great many people do not share your view of once a racist, always a racist intractability? Which, then, from their point of view Byrd's life is a great transformation story: from KKK recruiter to supporter of civil rights. Therefore, knowing this alternative perspective, it would not be an accurate portrayal to say people's attendance at Byrd's funeral is them affirming his old KKK values. They were clearly there to affirm the character reformation that they believe occurred.
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Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol is waging a crusade to save the Republican Party by finding a conservative alternative to GOP frontrunner Donald Trump, but he is getting no thanks from the Republican National Committee.
The conservative pundit confirmed to the New York Times in a piece published Saturday that he circulated a memo to conservative allies pushing for an independent candidate who could still get on general-election ballots at this late stage in the 2016 race. Former Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who has thrown his support behind Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), are two of the names that were circulated for the role.
RNC officials were quick to try to to quash this discussion. Committee spokesman Sean Spicer told Breitbart News on Sunday that “any effort to facilitate a third party ultimately is helping to elect Hillary Clinton.”
“The Republican Party must be united to take back the White House,” Spicer said.
Kristol seems unlikely to give up his campaign any time soon, though. In a tweet Monday morning, the Weekly Standard editor framed RNC leadership—particularly chairman Reince Priebus—as puppets in thrall to an unwieldy candidate.
He also tweeted out links to an op-ed set to be published in his magazine on March 28 that argues the party’s best recourse would be to rally around Cruz and prevent Trump from acquiring enough delegates to win the nomination outright. Nominating an independent candidate would be a “track two” strategy, he argued.
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On March 22 2016 00:46 farvacola wrote:
Given that Kennedy now needs to be a part of the 4-vote conservative desire to hear a case, the Court's refusal to hear Nebraska and Oklahoma's case ought not be too surprising.
Please, Scalia would have granted cert just to laugh the States out of the capital. Thier COA, if they have one, is against the Federal government, even then it's shaky.
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On March 22 2016 01:26 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Show nested quote +Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol is waging a crusade to save the Republican Party by finding a conservative alternative to GOP frontrunner Donald Trump, but he is getting no thanks from the Republican National Committee.
The conservative pundit confirmed to the New York Times in a piece published Saturday that he circulated a memo to conservative allies pushing for an independent candidate who could still get on general-election ballots at this late stage in the 2016 race. Former Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who has thrown his support behind Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), are two of the names that were circulated for the role.
RNC officials were quick to try to to quash this discussion. Committee spokesman Sean Spicer told Breitbart News on Sunday that “any effort to facilitate a third party ultimately is helping to elect Hillary Clinton.”
“The Republican Party must be united to take back the White House,” Spicer said.
Kristol seems unlikely to give up his campaign any time soon, though. In a tweet Monday morning, the Weekly Standard editor framed RNC leadership—particularly chairman Reince Priebus—as puppets in thrall to an unwieldy candidate.
He also tweeted out links to an op-ed set to be published in his magazine on March 28 that argues the party’s best recourse would be to rally around Cruz and prevent Trump from acquiring enough delegates to win the nomination outright. Nominating an independent candidate would be a “track two” strategy, he argued. Source
The level of "friendly fire" that Trump is facing from various factions on the Right is unprecedented. I'm not sure how he can win the general election when he constantly is pulling knives from his back.
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the more knives he pulls the higher he polls
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On March 22 2016 01:27 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2016 00:46 farvacola wrote:
Given that Kennedy now needs to be a part of the 4-vote conservative desire to hear a case, the Court's refusal to hear Nebraska and Oklahoma's case ought not be too surprising. Please, Scalia would have granted cert just to laugh the States out of the capital. Thier COA, if they have one, is against the Federal government, even then it's shaky.
Yeah, but Scalia sided with the Feds in the medical marijuana case in 2005.
Also:
Remarks in Colorado.
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That will hold true for the primaries, but I am not sure it will carry over to the general election. Trump's pools are consistent, but have no risen much beyond his base.
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I still don't understand how the demographics are supposed to work out. Even if Trump could convince the whole white working class to vote for him, without the minority and women vote I don't think you can actually win the election and is he seriously going to convince these groups to vote for him instead of Hillary in a general election that will hopefully at least to some degree be centered around issues instead of the usual shit throwing? I dunno what the Republican party is supposed to do really because now they have this giant angry base that makes any moderate candidate impossible.
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A poll came out yesterday saying 1/4 of Republicans will vote Clinton over Trump. Not going to be that high in reality, but even a fraction of that's gonna hurt.
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It would be like if the Democrats tried to win the election by pandering to their base that wasn’t to ban guns, free speech, private property ownership and every other liberal think tank idea and then expected to win the general election based on that alone. I understand why the more moderate Republicans are trying to point this out.
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Once the primary is over Trump is going to soften his message a whole lot to appeal to the general public, given that he's not stopped by considerations like coherence or consistency. The polls are based on his message from right now and are therefore meaningless.
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On March 22 2016 01:47 Nyxisto wrote:
I still don't understand how the demographics are supposed to work out. Even if Trump could convince the whole white working class to vote for him, without the minority and women vote I don't think you can actually win the election and is he seriously going to convince these groups to vote for him instead of Hillary in a general election that will hopefully at least to some degree be centered around issues instead of the usual shit throwing? I dunno what the Republican party is supposed to do really because now they have this giant angry base that makes any moderate candidate impossible.
First of all, not everyone votes, and I really wouldn't be surprised that minorities and women vote less than the rest of the population ; second of all, why shouldn't women vote for Trump? (unless I missed something terrible he said about them?)
And yeah Nebuchad is right, Trump being Trump, he'll have no problem appearing as a less extreme candidate while still retaining the support of his earliest supporters because he'll be the "anti-establishment" candidate.
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