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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 3261

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Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.

In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up!

NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious.
Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action.
ragz_gt
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
9172 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-10 18:08:48
March 10 2016 18:08 GMT
#65201
Um.... not sure what you mean by "acted like I am in an US bubble", since that's the only post I've made in a few days. All I said is that doesn't add to your argument and has no real place for it.
I'm not an otaku, I'm a specialist.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
March 10 2016 18:09 GMT
#65202
On March 11 2016 03:07 trulojucreathrma.com wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 11 2016 03:04 ragz_gt wrote:
On March 11 2016 02:47 trulojucreathrma.com wrote:
On March 11 2016 01:49 Stratos_speAr wrote:
Basically every point you've made has been refuted. Free education doesn't flood the universities of other countries with lazy students that don't want to do anything else.


It does in the country where I was born/went to university.

I have seen it first hand.


Not saying you are wrong, but "I have seen it first hand" has very little value in policy discussions. It's like Jim Inhofe holding a snowball as evidence that climate change does not exist.



True, but you clearly acted like I am in an US bubble, repeating old US-centered views. I am not. There is actually data out there. Go look it up. No, it doesn't flood like a tsunami. But you do get 500 psychology grads for every psychology job.

That seems like an issue that could be addressed without invalidating free/cheap post high school education and job training.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
trulojucreathrma.com
Profile Blog Joined December 2015
United States327 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-10 18:15:35
March 10 2016 18:11 GMT
#65203
But I am in favour of cheap tuition. Just not of free tuition.


Look, as a left wing nut, I am not in favour of Joe the plumber paying for the education of all those sophisticated middle class kids, so those kids can come out of college with zero debt and instantly make 2x the money Joe the plumber does. And that on their first job ever.


Even with the crazy 100,000 to 150,000 dollar debt, people with an advanced degree can actually pay it off right now (and some don't, which is horrible). They can pay off 10,000 dollars of debt. No reason to take that cash from average Joe and give it to the upper middle class.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21961 Posts
March 10 2016 18:12 GMT
#65204
On March 11 2016 03:07 trulojucreathrma.com wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 11 2016 03:04 ragz_gt wrote:
On March 11 2016 02:47 trulojucreathrma.com wrote:
On March 11 2016 01:49 Stratos_speAr wrote:
Basically every point you've made has been refuted. Free education doesn't flood the universities of other countries with lazy students that don't want to do anything else.


It does in the country where I was born/went to university.

I have seen it first hand.


Not saying you are wrong, but "I have seen it first hand" has very little value in policy discussions. It's like Jim Inhofe holding a snowball as evidence that climate change does not exist.



True, but you clearly acted like I am in an US bubble, repeating old US-centered views. I am not. There is actually data out there. Go look it up. No, it doesn't flood like a tsunami. But you do get 500 psychology grads for every psychology job. And you do get people taking 7 years to complete a 5 year education, on average.

Just look at the current leaders of Europe. Some partied for 3 years, studied for 5, spend almost a decade in university.

Good thing then that the US is not the first nation to implement this idea and can check what others did and what problems they had aswell as how they fixed those problems.

It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15725 Posts
March 10 2016 18:15 GMT
#65205
On March 11 2016 02:54 oneofthem wrote:
i wouldnt support trump over sanders.

i would probably also take sanders over a gop win. but there is plenty of downside to sanders especially if his election is understood to mean handing over the country to the radical wing of the democrats party.

trump might not do the antitrade stuff he promised but sanders would do everything he thinks

i agree that between evil and naive you gotta take the latter.


To be fair, we have talked at lengths about the fact that the GOP always goes horrendously to the right during a primary and then tries to apologize for it the entire general. Maybe Sanders does the same? "Ok, maybe not free, but I am going to massively expand college assistance grants for students who work while they are in school!" or some shit like that.

Then again, he has been saying this shit his entire life. Maybe he really is just so stubborn and unworkable that him and congress would pass a grand total of 0 bills his entire presidency.
trulojucreathrma.com
Profile Blog Joined December 2015
United States327 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-10 18:19:47
March 10 2016 18:19 GMT
#65206
Approval of congress is in the single digits. Do we really want to pick a president based on what the congress is willing to accept? I see the problem there, but maybe we should vote all those guys out of office as well.

Also, it is mostly Republicans blocking anything the Democrats propose. Now I have no love for Democrats, but you can't blame everyone equally for the deadlock. If people are congress are unwilling to cooperate with the new president for the next 4 years, they should vacate their seat.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15725 Posts
March 10 2016 18:23 GMT
#65207
On March 11 2016 03:19 trulojucreathrma.com wrote:
Approval of congress is in the single digits. Do we really want to pick a president based on what the congress is willing to accept? I see the problem there, but maybe we should vote all those guys out of office as well.

Also, it is mostly Republicans blocking anything the Democrats propose. Now I have no love for Democrats, but you can't blame everyone equally for the deadlock. If people are congress are unwilling to cooperate with the new president for the next 4 years, they should vacate their seat.


It doesn't matter who you blame. If those congressmen keep their seats (many will), it doesn't matter. They are still there. They will still vote. Many of these congressmen have survived terrible approval ratings already. Their districts are on complete lock down.
puerk
Profile Joined February 2015
Germany855 Posts
March 10 2016 18:24 GMT
#65208
still not sure why you are talking about degrees and higher education when there are still no more jobs at the end of the pipeline what ever you do to the diameter and length of it
ZeaL.
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States5955 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-10 18:41:17
March 10 2016 18:27 GMT
#65209
Possible reason for why the MI D polls were so off:www.electoral-vote.com

TL;DR: MI+FL tried to move up their primary dates in '08. As punishment the DNC threatened to make their delegates ineligible so Obama wasn't even on the ballot in MI. On the other hand Clinton was and a decent number of people voted for her despite knowing their votes might not count. As part of figuring out likely voters in '16, pollsters ask if the person had voted in the prior primary. For MI prior voters were obviously mostly Hillary supporters, skewing the numbers towards Hillary.

This same phenomenon might affect the FL polling right now, but to a lesser degree. Both candidates were on the ballot but Clinton campaigned way more in FL than Obama did.
IgnE
Profile Joined November 2010
United States7681 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-10 18:34:12
March 10 2016 18:29 GMT
#65210
Paglia with her fingers on the pulse of the nation.
The unrealistic sound of these propositions is indicative, not of their utopian character, but of the strength of the forces which prevent their realization.
trulojucreathrma.com
Profile Blog Joined December 2015
United States327 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-03-10 18:32:51
March 10 2016 18:29 GMT
#65211
Oh, there's jobs. Even in the US. Just not for every degree. And not in every area of the country. And not for the pay you'd like/need to pay off debt quickly.

On March 11 2016 03:23 Mohdoo wrote:
It doesn't matter who you blame. If those congressmen keep their seats (many will), it doesn't matter. They are still there. They will still vote. Many of these congressmen have survived terrible approval ratings already. Their districts are on complete lock down.



I see the problem. But if you let this dictate who you vote for, you are fucked. You can't do that. If you as a voter wants Trump or Sanders or Cruz(maybe the least liked of all 3), you have to shove it down their throats.

Or else, just let them nominate the Koch brothers as 'president-twin for life' (hopefully won't be a very long time), and be done with it.

Or maybe the voters should be less schizophrenic about what they want. And one reason they are so schizophrenic is because they do not vote on issues but on 'who wins' or 'who do I want to drink a beer with'.
puerk
Profile Joined February 2015
Germany855 Posts
March 10 2016 18:45 GMT
#65212
i said changing the education pipeline won't change the amount of jobs. when the amount of people looking for a job plus those who have given up on looking are more than the openings, no amount of retraining can move them all into work.
Naracs_Duc
Profile Joined August 2015
746 Posts
March 10 2016 18:52 GMT
#65213
On March 11 2016 03:29 trulojucreathrma.com wrote:
Oh, there's jobs. Even in the US. Just not for every degree. And not in every area of the country. And not for the pay you'd like/need to pay off debt quickly.

Show nested quote +
On March 11 2016 03:23 Mohdoo wrote:
It doesn't matter who you blame. If those congressmen keep their seats (many will), it doesn't matter. They are still there. They will still vote. Many of these congressmen have survived terrible approval ratings already. Their districts are on complete lock down.



I see the problem. But if you let this dictate who you vote for, you are fucked. You can't do that. If you as a voter wants Trump or Sanders or Cruz(maybe the least liked of all 3), you have to shove it down their throats.

Or else, just let them nominate the Koch brothers as 'president-twin for life' (hopefully won't be a very long time), and be done with it.

Or maybe the voters should be less schizophrenic about what they want. And one reason they are so schizophrenic is because they do not vote on issues but on 'who wins' or 'who do I want to drink a beer with'.


Aren't the Koch brothers supporting Sanders?
Naracs_Duc
Profile Joined August 2015
746 Posts
March 10 2016 18:53 GMT
#65214
On March 11 2016 03:45 puerk wrote:
i said changing the education pipeline won't change the amount of jobs. when the amount of people looking for a job plus those who have given up on looking are more than the openings, no amount of retraining can move them all into work.


I thought the US has had (and is till having) the longest steady job growth in american history?
Stratos_speAr
Profile Joined May 2009
United States6959 Posts
March 10 2016 18:54 GMT
#65215
On March 11 2016 03:11 trulojucreathrma.com wrote:
But I am in favour of cheap tuition. Just not of free tuition.


Look, as a left wing nut, I am not in favour of Joe the plumber paying for the education of all those sophisticated middle class kids, so those kids can come out of college with zero debt and instantly make 2x the money Joe the plumber does. And that on their first job ever.


Even with the crazy 100,000 to 150,000 dollar debt, people with an advanced degree can actually pay it off right now (and some don't, which is horrible). They can pay off 10,000 dollars of debt. No reason to take that cash from average Joe and give it to the upper middle class.


Average debt for a student is now about $30,000. Combine that with recent graduate unemployment and horrible interest rates (mine are 6.8%, and that's a very low student interest rate) and students definitely CANNOT pay back their average debt load in 5 years. Most can't even do it in the normal 10.

You simply need to get your facts straight.
A sound mind in a sound body, is a short, but full description of a happy state in this World: he that has these two, has little more to wish for; and he that wants either of them, will be little the better for anything else.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
March 10 2016 18:55 GMT
#65216
On March 11 2016 03:52 Naracs_Duc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 11 2016 03:29 trulojucreathrma.com wrote:
Oh, there's jobs. Even in the US. Just not for every degree. And not in every area of the country. And not for the pay you'd like/need to pay off debt quickly.

On March 11 2016 03:23 Mohdoo wrote:
It doesn't matter who you blame. If those congressmen keep their seats (many will), it doesn't matter. They are still there. They will still vote. Many of these congressmen have survived terrible approval ratings already. Their districts are on complete lock down.



I see the problem. But if you let this dictate who you vote for, you are fucked. You can't do that. If you as a voter wants Trump or Sanders or Cruz(maybe the least liked of all 3), you have to shove it down their throats.

Or else, just let them nominate the Koch brothers as 'president-twin for life' (hopefully won't be a very long time), and be done with it.

Or maybe the voters should be less schizophrenic about what they want. And one reason they are so schizophrenic is because they do not vote on issues but on 'who wins' or 'who do I want to drink a beer with'.


Aren't the Koch brothers supporting Sanders?

The Koch brothers are supporting the Koch brothers. They made a single video praising him, which can either be seen as backing him or trying to poison the well.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
oBlade
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States5770 Posts
March 10 2016 18:57 GMT
#65217
On March 10 2016 19:18 strongwind wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 10 2016 15:31 oBlade wrote:
I am going to disagree with Kwark some (as usual probably), but I have a similar train of thought..

The reason McDonalds or supermarkets or even airports can have self-checkout kiosks is that there's almost no need for human involvement - people are buying what they want to buy. It's between the people and the product. The cashier is convenient but not contributing substantially to the relationship. You'll note there's still no automated bagging, even though the packing problem is a fundamental thing in computer science. And there won't be for a while because it's just bagging groceries. That's the point I'm trying to make about healthcare. There's no streamlining left to squeeze revenue out of automation when it comes to getting amoxicillin from your PCP.

And there's already tiers of skill, which is why there's nurses. The nurse is already the automation when they digitally weigh you and take your BP/heart rate. You can't make people less skilled in this field, because you want them working well within their comfort zone.

In terms of someone walks into a clinic, says "there's a thing on my arm," I don't see where the automation happens. It'll be a cyst, wart, parasite, tumor - in so many cases like this, is there any way for automation to introduce more efficiency? It'd be a hindrance.

Or radiology. A person tells you how to position yourself, they position the machine, and it images you. Where is the demand to invent some kind of meta-imaging machine that uses 20 cameras to construct a 3d image of you so its algorithm can control where the radio - all while the tech is sitting there providing oversight? Why doesn't the tech just take 30 seconds and do it?

There are exciting things happening technologically in medicine (as always), like the fact that people in the first world are starting to keep consistent track of their basic vitals with smartwear, which might expand further, and the fact that there's companies like medibid popping up which are great for consumers. I am all for a decrease in administration so a greater proportion of the industry is actual healthcare, but I don't think basic medicine is where the automation is going to happen in the future, because it's not where it happens now. What happens is there's some guy, who's one of a few in the world, who can perform some procedure. And he's not cheap, although he may do - I forgot if there's a special word for pro bono with doctors - he may do the procedure for people who need it. But over time, new technology and new techniques make the procedure minimally invasive, and more people are capable of performing it, it's cheaper, it has fewer complications. That's the real effect of technology. Especially eye surgery has experienced this in recent memory, if I'm not mistaken.

I think medicine is probably expanding right now (just a hunch) - I mean more than the base rate our society expands. And it should continue to for a long time. That's where I agree with the point about Excel. 1000 years ago, medicine could do fuck all (even though there were books, people had done dissections, and so forth) and people died by 40-50. Now people are living until they're 90. There's an expanded need for oncologists, thoracic surgeons, dentists because everyone's teeth fall out by then, etc. In telemarketing, it's literally a recording doing the talking. "Automation" has a real meaning in that context, or in the context of manufacturing. People get replaced for some or all of their duties. I don't think this works in a the context of healthcare. And that was my original point: careers that deal with people don't admit to significant automation, including healthcare, education, law, government, police, barber, journalism, or whatever.

There is absolutely a ton of ways to incorporate automation in all of the fields you've mentioned. The level of complexity that technology can handle today is already astounding. Self-driving cars. Computers beating grandmasters. We hold doctors in high esteem, but pit them against a computer with all currently held medical knowledge, a profile of you, your genetic history, family history, environmental factors, and so on and so forth, and you might be surprised which one gives you a more accurate diagnosis. If computers could handle that level of complexity, any profession is fair game.

Are we there yet? Not yet. But you have to think it's only a matter of time, and probably sooner than later.

Once a machine is able to handle complex professions reliably, what then? I think that's the dilemma we'll be facing either in my lifetime or the next. Assuming we haven't been wiped out by a nuclear winter or global warming first.

On March 10 2016 20:47 Acrofales wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 10 2016 15:31 oBlade wrote:
I am going to disagree with Kwark some (as usual probably), but I have a similar train of thought..

The reason McDonalds or supermarkets or even airports can have self-checkout kiosks is that there's almost no need for human involvement - people are buying what they want to buy. It's between the people and the product. The cashier is convenient but not contributing substantially to the relationship. You'll note there's still no automated bagging, even though the packing problem is a fundamental thing in computer science. And there won't be for a while because it's just bagging groceries. That's the point I'm trying to make about healthcare. There's no streamlining left to squeeze revenue out of automation when it comes to getting amoxicillin from your PCP.

And there's already tiers of skill, which is why there's nurses. The nurse is already the automation when they digitally weigh you and take your BP/heart rate. You can't make people less skilled in this field, because you want them working well within their comfort zone.

In terms of someone walks into a clinic, says "there's a thing on my arm," I don't see where the automation happens. It'll be a cyst, wart, parasite, tumor - in so many cases like this, is there any way for automation to introduce more efficiency? It'd be a hindrance.

Or radiology. A person tells you how to position yourself, they position the machine, and it images you. Where is the demand to invent some kind of meta-imaging machine that uses 20 cameras to construct a 3d image of you so its algorithm can control where the radio - all while the tech is sitting there providing oversight? Why doesn't the tech just take 30 seconds and do it?

There are exciting things happening technologically in medicine (as always), like the fact that people in the first world are starting to keep consistent track of their basic vitals with smartwear, which might expand further, and the fact that there's companies like medibid popping up which are great for consumers. I am all for a decrease in administration so a greater proportion of the industry is actual healthcare, but I don't think basic medicine is where the automation is going to happen in the future, because it's not where it happens now. What happens is there's some guy, who's one of a few in the world, who can perform some procedure. And he's not cheap, although he may do - I forgot if there's a special word for pro bono with doctors - he may do the procedure for people who need it. But over time, new technology and new techniques make the procedure minimally invasive, and more people are capable of performing it, it's cheaper, it has fewer complications. That's the real effect of technology. Especially eye surgery has experienced this in recent memory, if I'm not mistaken.

I think medicine is probably expanding right now (just a hunch) - I mean more than the base rate our society expands. And it should continue to for a long time. That's where I agree with the point about Excel. 1000 years ago, medicine could do fuck all (even though there were books, people had done dissections, and so forth) and people died by 40-50. Now people are living until they're 90. There's an expanded need for oncologists, thoracic surgeons, dentists because everyone's teeth fall out by then, etc. In telemarketing, it's literally a recording doing the talking. "Automation" has a real meaning in that context, or in the context of manufacturing. People get replaced for some or all of their duties. I don't think this works in a the context of healthcare. And that was my original point: careers that deal with people don't admit to significant automation, including healthcare, education, law, government, police, barber, journalism, or whatever.


Your nurse example: see thing on arm, whip out smartphone, take picture and autodiagnose on the spot. It then tells you what to do about it. 90% of the people who would have walked into the hospital with a thing on their arm now no longer need to, because a drone is delivering the cream they need to treat their thing.

While radiology is a bit tricky, due to the radiation, ultrasound will soon be available everywhere: small and cheap enough to have one in your bathroom, next to the thermometer. And computers will tell you where to aim it and interpret the images for you. Probably 90% of the things you now get x-ray'd, will be diagnosed by ultrasound instead, from the comfort of your home.

Automation won't necessarily do the same job, but it might still make most of those jobs irrelevant. However, physicians are still a long long way from being automated away.

Mainly there is no drive to automate the mundane in medicine. I wish someone would address that point. Is automation in medicine not (rightly) focused on making it possible to do things that are otherwise impossible or nearly insurmountable - like microsurgery?

Self-driving cars are a nascent field. We have self-driving trains and aeroplanes, do we have fewer or less-skilled pilots? Nobody wants to accept automation that's not massively ahead of human performance. I would also submit that it's not clear a computer can diagnose from a picture better than a human can - or at any rate, when you see a doctor, he's not just looking at a picture, he has 3d and tactile access.. If you want to automate basic diagnostic processes you will end up with WebMD syndrome - "On what side of the body? Left. Are you experiencing pain? Moderate to severe. Consult a medical professional." The whole point is that you need a medical professional to actually treat you, not just produce a plausible diagnosis.

"Computers beating grandmasters" is an interesting meme. You could also make a machine to launch a baseball 200mph, but we still have pitchers and chess grandmasters. Player pianos have unlimited fingers but Berezovsky still draws bigger crowds. There might be an argument (privacy and other objections aside) for something like superdatabases that collect records, genomes, and so on, to make more advanced assessments of risk (imagine getting a postcard from a HHS supercomputer telling you it would be prudent to do bloodwork on your kidneys). But that'd be a supplement to what we have now. It wouldn't mean we can get by with doctors who have less extensive expertise. Basic things are not getting automated anytime soon. And I feel like argument based on "eventually so why not tomorrow" has been disproved by flying cars, jetpacks, nuclear cars, cancer. It may happen eventually. But it's not happening soon or quickly.
"I read it. You know how to read, you ignorant fuck?" - Andy Dufresne
Naracs_Duc
Profile Joined August 2015
746 Posts
March 10 2016 18:57 GMT
#65218
On March 11 2016 03:55 Plansix wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 11 2016 03:52 Naracs_Duc wrote:
On March 11 2016 03:29 trulojucreathrma.com wrote:
Oh, there's jobs. Even in the US. Just not for every degree. And not in every area of the country. And not for the pay you'd like/need to pay off debt quickly.

On March 11 2016 03:23 Mohdoo wrote:
It doesn't matter who you blame. If those congressmen keep their seats (many will), it doesn't matter. They are still there. They will still vote. Many of these congressmen have survived terrible approval ratings already. Their districts are on complete lock down.



I see the problem. But if you let this dictate who you vote for, you are fucked. You can't do that. If you as a voter wants Trump or Sanders or Cruz(maybe the least liked of all 3), you have to shove it down their throats.

Or else, just let them nominate the Koch brothers as 'president-twin for life' (hopefully won't be a very long time), and be done with it.

Or maybe the voters should be less schizophrenic about what they want. And one reason they are so schizophrenic is because they do not vote on issues but on 'who wins' or 'who do I want to drink a beer with'.


Aren't the Koch brothers supporting Sanders?

The Koch brothers are supporting the Koch brothers. They made a single video praising him, which can either be seen as backing him or trying to poison the well.


Can't the same argument be made for their GOP support as well?
trulojucreathrma.com
Profile Blog Joined December 2015
United States327 Posts
March 10 2016 18:59 GMT
#65219
On March 11 2016 03:54 Stratos_speAr wrote:
Average debt for a student is now about $30,000. Combine that with recent graduate unemployment and horrible interest rates (mine are 6.8%, and that's a very low student interest rate) and students definitely CANNOT pay back their average debt load in 5 years. Most can't even do it in the normal 10.

You simply need to get your facts straight.


You aren't reading.

I oppose the current situation.
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
March 10 2016 18:59 GMT
#65220
On March 11 2016 03:57 Naracs_Duc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 11 2016 03:55 Plansix wrote:
On March 11 2016 03:52 Naracs_Duc wrote:
On March 11 2016 03:29 trulojucreathrma.com wrote:
Oh, there's jobs. Even in the US. Just not for every degree. And not in every area of the country. And not for the pay you'd like/need to pay off debt quickly.

On March 11 2016 03:23 Mohdoo wrote:
It doesn't matter who you blame. If those congressmen keep their seats (many will), it doesn't matter. They are still there. They will still vote. Many of these congressmen have survived terrible approval ratings already. Their districts are on complete lock down.



I see the problem. But if you let this dictate who you vote for, you are fucked. You can't do that. If you as a voter wants Trump or Sanders or Cruz(maybe the least liked of all 3), you have to shove it down their throats.

Or else, just let them nominate the Koch brothers as 'president-twin for life' (hopefully won't be a very long time), and be done with it.

Or maybe the voters should be less schizophrenic about what they want. And one reason they are so schizophrenic is because they do not vote on issues but on 'who wins' or 'who do I want to drink a beer with'.


Aren't the Koch brothers supporting Sanders?

The Koch brothers are supporting the Koch brothers. They made a single video praising him, which can either be seen as backing him or trying to poison the well.


Can't the same argument be made for their GOP support as well?

Yes, but the GOP is, in general, more willing to accept that support. Sanders is not willing to do so in any way. I don't believe the Koch brothers shouldn't have influence in politics, but I see many of the beliefs on social services to be regressive and harmful.
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