EPTI think having other relatively big name candidates would help Hillary v Sanders tbh. He wouldn't be able to pull the narrative about the establishment nearly as effectively. If we want to talk super hypothetical (Hillary effectively scared off any potentials) Hillary would also likely smash the bejesus out of any poor mainstream Democrat running against her (which is why they all ran away instead of running against) unless we got the second coming of Barack Obama.
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ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
I think having other relatively big name candidates would help Hillary v Sanders tbh. He wouldn't be able to pull the narrative about the establishment nearly as effectively. If we want to talk super hypothetical (Hillary effectively scared off any potentials) Hillary would also likely smash the bejesus out of any poor mainstream Democrat running against her (which is why they all ran away instead of running against) unless we got the second coming of Barack Obama. | ||
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xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
On February 17 2016 00:53 oneofthem wrote: not far into the future obama would be remembered for his competence. I doubt it. His foreign policy bungling (which may imminently start looking a lot worse) alone precludes it. | ||
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On February 17 2016 01:43 xDaunt wrote: I doubt it. His foreign policy bungling (which may imminently start looking a lot worse) alone precludes it. Bush and Clinton were also quite shitty at foreign policy. Sadly common in the US. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On February 17 2016 01:43 xDaunt wrote: I doubt it. His foreign policy bungling (which may imminently start looking a lot worse) alone precludes it. I maintain that he dealt with the issues as best he could given the disaster he was given by the Bush administration. He attempted to get more involved in Syria before ISIS, but Congress voted against military action. It’s hard to do amazing things when you are 5 trillion in the hole from a war based on incompetence/lies. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15689 Posts
On February 17 2016 01:43 xDaunt wrote: I doubt it. His foreign policy bungling (which may imminently start looking a lot worse) alone precludes it. When the judgment of a president's foreign policy is "How well is the entire world doing?", everyone is going to get a bad score. The world is always going to be shit. But Cuba and Iran will be seen as distinct victories for Obama. | ||
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Seuss
United States10536 Posts
On February 17 2016 01:31 ticklishmusic wrote: I maintain Jeb! is actually improving over time and I think it's really down to him and Kasich in the establishment lane. Kasich found a new donor, but dunno how long it'll keep him afloat really. Turns out having a bajillion dollars is actually a pretty good strategy after all. That said, Jeb and Kasich are both pretty milquetoast (I love that word). I think having other relatively big name candidates would help Hillary v Sanders tbh. He wouldn't be able to pull the narrative about the establishment nearly as effectively. If we want to talk super hypothetical (Hillary effectively scared off any potentials) Hillary would also likely smash the bejesus out of any poor mainstream Democrat running against her (which is why they all ran away instead of running against) unless we got the second coming of Barack Obama. Jeb has been improving, but it's probably too little too late. If Rubio were still collapsing then Jeb would likely become the eventual nominee, but "eventual" in this case is still bad. The longer it takes, and it would likely take a long time with Jeb, the easier Trump or Cruz' path to the nomination becomes. But Rubio's collapse seems to be over. He's still leading Jeb and Kasich in SC despite what happened in NH, and now Kasich is tied with Jeb there. It seems likely that Rubio will either "win" the establishment vote there or we'll face another split decision. Either is a disaster for Jeb. The contest is still a few days away, but I'm skeptical Jeb is going to outperform his polling by any significant margin. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
the sanders phenomenon is the same basic move of going for the anti-establishment guy who is a suitable vessel for one's discontents. the left has thrown a lot of elections doing just this. as sanders' vague platform or obama's lack of experience suggested, this type of voter is really just digging an image or attitude of revolution. hillary, for a variety of reasons, is not the proper vessel for this sentiment, so we see rejection of hillary being at least as big as support for sanders in terms of his numbers. i've gone with the 'sanders is a spectacularly weak candidate' line for a while but i'll admit there is some chance of good upside here. still, i cannot see a scenario in which sanders actually solves the structural problem largely bought about by the trade winds and scale economy, at least not with his policy prescriptions. you need to foster inclusive growth and address the declining dynamism of the economy outside of the internet stuff. | ||
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ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
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Mohdoo
United States15689 Posts
On February 17 2016 01:54 Seuss wrote: Jeb has been improving, but it's probably too little too late. If Rubio were still collapsing then Jeb would likely become the eventual nominee, but "eventual" in this case is still bad. The longer it takes, and it would likely take a long time with Jeb, the easier Trump or Cruz' path to the nomination becomes. But Rubio's collapse seems to be over. He's still leading Jeb and Kasich in SC despite what happened in NH, and now Kasich is tied with Jeb there. It seems likely that Rubio will either "win" the establishment vote there or we'll face another split decision. Either is a disaster for Jeb. The contest is still a few days away, but I'm skeptical Jeb is going to outperform his polling by any significant margin. I would argue that Bush just needs to do as well or barely better than Rubio to get the big support to form around him. At the end of the day, he's a Bush and his funding is completely insane. When a bunch of establishment folks are gathered around a table to discuss Bush vs Rubio, Rubio will only go forward if Bush is toast. Bush doesn't have a terrible resume. He's a governor, not a junior senator. I still maintain Rubio or Trump are the best shot the GOP has. But I think Jeb can get the nomination at this point. And I don't think a brokered convention is out of the question at this point. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On February 17 2016 01:43 xDaunt wrote: I doubt it. His foreign policy bungling (which may imminently start looking a lot worse) alone precludes it. foreign policy wise i evaluate obama almost exclusively on how he is dealing with china and the BRICs. middle east is, unless you really care about terrorism or arab welfare, a big distraction. we've had a decade of chasing after dudes in stone age villages but the real game is still the great power competition. vast amount of the modern economy flows through the western pacific area and will be moreso in the future. https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/middle-east-distraction obama is attuned to the importance of this arena and his push for TPP is the primary legacy of his foreign policy. see e.g. http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2015/03/13-geopolitical-importance-transpacific-partnership but the current situation in syria is pretty serious because of how it is affecting europe. it probably is giving russia a ton of leverage atm. | ||
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ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
On February 17 2016 01:59 Mohdoo wrote: I would argue that Bush just needs to do as well or barely better than Rubio to get the big support to form around him. At the end of the day, he's a Bush and his funding is completely insane. When a bunch of establishment folks are gathered around a table to discuss Bush vs Rubio, Rubio will only go forward if Bush is toast. Bush doesn't have a terrible resume. He's a governor, not a junior senator. I still maintain Rubio or Trump are the best shot the GOP has. But I think Jeb can get the nomination at this point. And I don't think a brokered convention is out of the question at this point. more or less what i was gonna say, rubio has to present himself as a much better alternative to bush in order to win. if jeb starts figuring out how to land some punches against rubio (he's figured out how to take on trump at any rate) the republican establishment will start writing checks again. split decision is also possible, but i like jeb's look right now and will bet on him because i feel the need to engage in punditry.  | ||
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Seuss
United States10536 Posts
On February 17 2016 01:59 Mohdoo wrote: I would argue that Bush just needs to do as well or barely better than Rubio to get the big support to form around him. At the end of the day, he's a Bush and his funding is completely insane. When a bunch of establishment folks are gathered around a table to discuss Bush vs Rubio, Rubio will only go forward if Bush is toast. Bush doesn't have a terrible resume. He's a governor, not a junior senator. I still maintain Rubio or Trump are the best shot the GOP has. But I think Jeb can get the nomination at this point. And I don't think a brokered convention is out of the question at this point. Jeb needs a clear victory to convince the establishment he's their best shot. If he can reverse Rubio's current margin that might happen, but only if people aren't still gun shy after having their hopes dashed by Rubio. At least the narrative will be with him. If Jeb breaks even or has another NH-style result he's not going to consolidate support. The contest will simply continue, the establishment panic will continue, and everyone will wait with baited breath for Nevada and Super Tuesday. In the long run Jeb probably wins out if that keeps happening, but Jeb might not have that time to spare with Trump potentially winning state after state. | ||
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Deathstar
9150 Posts
On February 17 2016 01:58 ticklishmusic wrote: Sanders will probably John Corbyn the US if he's elected which is kinda terrifying and will prompt my migration to Canada. If I had a dollar for every time an American says they'll immigrate over a presidential election  . No one ever does though lol | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On February 17 2016 02:15 Deathstar wrote: If I had a dollar for every time an American says they'll immigrate over a presidential election . No one ever does though lolI like it when they claim they leaving of a socialist was elected, but plan to go to Ireland or Canada. | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
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xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
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ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
On February 17 2016 02:17 Plansix wrote: I like it when they claim they leaving of a socialist was elected, but plan to go to Ireland or Canada. i mean i've said i fully intend to support sanders if he gets the nom, but if he fucks things up as president if elected im moving | ||
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
superb journalism | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On February 17 2016 02:15 Deathstar wrote: If I had a dollar for every time an American says they'll immigrate over a presidential election . No one ever does though lolwe all take that as you agreeing to fund 1$ of Kwarks "going back to the UK"-fund if he ever has to flee the country | ||
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ErectedZenith
325 Posts
On February 17 2016 02:21 ticklishmusic wrote: i mean i've said i fully intend to support sanders if he gets the nom, but if he fucks things up as president if elected im moving His plan does nothing but drive away American companies away and create not incentive to innovate. Nobody with a smart mind would stay in a country where they have to give away 90% of their wealth. | ||
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