|
Read the rules in the OP before posting, please.In order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a re-read to refresh your memory! The vast majority of you are contributing in a healthy way, keep it up! NOTE: When providing a source, explain why you feel it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion if it's not obvious. Also take note that unsubstantiated tweets/posts meant only to rekindle old arguments can result in a mod action. |
On July 17 2015 17:25 Shiragaku wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2015 17:03 GreenHorizons wrote:On July 17 2015 16:55 Shiragaku wrote:On July 17 2015 16:45 GreenHorizons wrote:On July 17 2015 16:31 Introvert wrote:On July 17 2015 15:53 GreenHorizons wrote:On July 17 2015 15:27 Introvert wrote:Dissatisfaction with Republican leaders is common for a lot a of people on the right too. But I don't see any data suggesting that they would vote for Sanders. Also, this “The recent rise of Bernie Sanders,” wrote Vox’s Jonathan Allen last week, “points as much to [Hillary] Clinton’s vulnerability as Sanders’s strength.” Allen went on to argue that Joe Biden should run for president. “The Sanders surge shows that Democratic activists want an alternative to Clinton,” he explained.
We’ve seen this idea before. For at least a year, journalists have been urging, sometimes almost begging, Biden to enter the race. The more elaborate versions of the idea liken the 2016 campaign to 1968, a year in which the incumbent president, Lyndon B. Johnson, withdrew after the liberal, anti-war candidate Eugene McCarthy finished a close second in the New Hampshire primary. The nomination was eventually won by Johnson’s vice president, Hubert Humphrey, after Robert F. Kennedy (who had entered the race after New Hampshire) was assassinated. In the 2016 narrative, Clinton is Johnson, Sanders is McCarthy and Biden is some composite of Kennedy and Humphrey.
But these comparisons suffer from a fatal flaw. Unlike LBJ, who (mostly because of the Vietnam War) had approval ratings only in the mid-50s or low 60s among Democrats during the 1968 campaign, Hillary Clinton is beloved by voters in her party. In national polls, her favorability ratings among Democrats usually exceed 80 percent. SourceNo one is afraid of Sanders. At least Hillary isn't. Biden, like Jeb Bush supporters, are often mentioned, but no one has actually ever seen the elusive beings in the real world. If you think Hillary isn't getting scared of Sanders, you haven't been paying attention to her campaign and it's advocates. First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. Bernie is heading to Texas and Phoenix, watch as he continues to have bigger rallies than anyone else even in red states. I suspect within a month or so we'll have moved on to the "fighting" part. We'll be done with the ignoring and laughing. Did you even read the article? Seriously your Bernie posts are becoming more and more... weird. And like the Jeb or Biden supporters, I've never seen the mythical libertarians who support Sanders. Might just be people who like to root for the crazy ones. I doubt they were very libertarian beyond weed and gay marriage. Edit: and I've seen this. People who claim they are libertarians or support Paul because they like the idea of just "letting people do what they want." Pretty shallow. Haha, I don't know who you're supporting but I sense a little jelly. I read that article when it came out actually. Some things you'll notice missing from the analysis... Turnout, new voters, that Sanders has just started his multi-cultural outreach. Sanders has also been activating lots of voters that previously haven't voted or didn't vote in recent elections. They are less likely to show up as "likely voters" There has already been a shift in the coverage of Sanders and it's only going to get better. Meanwhile the entire Republican field (and their SuperPAC's) are going to be firing shots at Hillary while Bernie goes untouched. Essentially doing his dirty work for him, right up until they realize they aren't so sure Hillary will beat him. EDIT: A lot of former Ron Paul supporters (particularly the younger ones) have been saying that they are just fed up with the pandering to social issues that every Republican has resorted to. Bernie takes popular positions on social issues but they are the same positions he's had for decades. I think it's fair to say they didn't really know what they were supporting with Paul though.
EDIT2: I should add Nate knows his stuff obviously it's just what's different about this campaign isn't in the polls yet. And neither do liberals such as yourself. Sanders has bent the knee to Israel during their slaughters, backed Obama twice, has been backing the military industrial complex of Vermont, and seems think that not bombing a country is enough to make him anti-war and a dove when congratulating Obama on his diplomacy regarding Iran. http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/07/15/chris-hedges-on-bernie-sanders-and-the-corporate-democrats/ I read that too, it was the same thing the SA people were saying at the Boston rally. It is an issue but Sanders got his people into the Democratic caucus before and he can do it again. They will take more convincing but Sanders is taking over the democratic party not being absorbed like the tea party (which is what SA and those like them are afraid of). EDIT: I know what I'm supporting. It's not as if there is a better option on those issues anyway. Adam Kokesh said the same thing about Ron Paul and the Republicans and although I am not exactly sympathetic to those guys, they were wrong and disappointed. And the reason why so many on the left do not want to be part of Sanders and his Democratic Party is because the Democrats have betrayed the left, the working class, and the poor over and over again. Clinton promised to strengthen the welfare system in his campaign speeches but ended up axing the welfare state and signing NAFTA. After the horror of Bush and the idiotic myths about Nader ruining the Democrats and allowing this horror to happen, almost everyone who would have supported the Greens or Nader backed Obama and he strengthened the security state, wars in more countries than Bush embarked, gave unconditional support to Israel for the longest time, and refused to touch the banks and a crappy product you have to buy called Obamacare. Look, I am sick and tired of hearing outcry and rage when a Republican gets in office and then excuses and false promises whenever a Democrat proves to be sub par, they go "Well what can you do? Do you have a better solution?" The memory of the hope and inspiration Nick Clegg, Alexis Tsispras, the Orange Coalition, and Obama are still crystal clear to me.
If Bernie starts taking a bunch of bank money or things like that I'll be more concerned, until then I think his record speaks for itself. If what you mentioned are the worst betrayals, I can deal with that. I'd love to have a multi-party system where a green candidate or something has a chance, but that's not the country we're in yet. One that elects Sanders through the democratic party... Yeah I think we're there.
|
All right, side as you will, but I am certain that if Bernie wins, he will be a letdown and conversation about him will shift from his greatness and ideas to defending the harsh reality. And if he loses, then I will snooze away as the cult whines about how unfair media is in America.
Shit like this has happened way too many times
|
On July 17 2015 17:43 Shiragaku wrote:
All right, side as you will, but I am certain that if Bernie wins, he will be a letdown and conversation about him will shift from his greatness and ideas to defending the harsh reality. And if he loses, then I will snooze away as the cult whines about how unfair media is in America.
I'm sure some people will be let down when the reality of how much work changing politics really is, but I won't be whining about the media.
We knew going into this (at least his earlier supporters) that the media was going to fight us the whole way, if he doesn't win it will be because we didn't work hard enough.
The funny thing is the media is so desperate for attention they can't help but talk about Bernie for the clicks (You see a lot more about him online than on MSM)
I was going to go to a Hillary meetup to compare it to the Sanders stuff but there isn't a single meeting within 250 miles of where I live for the foreseeable future (for comparison there are *update* over 50 within 50 miles for Bernie).
+ Show Spoiler +Over a thousand people have RSVP'd for July 29th just since I posted the link lol.
EDIT: I guess I should ask what it is you are suggesting I should do as a current Bernie supporter?
|
Interesting article about Trump:
Among self-identified conservatives (this includes “somewhat conservative” and “very conservative” Republicans), Trump earns 13 percent, the same level of support he’s garnering overall. In the two polls that broke down the responses among moderate and liberal Republicans, The Donald clocks in at 15 percent. Again, that’s the same percentage he had overall in an average of the two polls that included a moderate and liberal crosstab.
But what about the most conservative voters — the voters who you would have thought would be cheering the loudest as Trump rode down that escalator with the grace and poise of a modern-day Humphrey Bogart? In the two polls with a “tea party” and “very conservative” crosstab, Trump has averaged 13 percent and 19 percent, respectively. In the same polls with these crosstabs available, Trump took 12 percent and 15 percent of the overall vote, respectively. Those differences are not statistically significant.
Source
|
On July 17 2015 17:55 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2015 17:43 Shiragaku wrote:
All right, side as you will, but I am certain that if Bernie wins, he will be a letdown and conversation about him will shift from his greatness and ideas to defending the harsh reality. And if he loses, then I will snooze away as the cult whines about how unfair media is in America. I'm sure some people will be let down when the reality of how much work changing politics really is, but I won't be whining about the media. We knew going into this (at least his earlier supporters) that the media was going to fight us the whole way, if he doesn't win it will be because we didn't work hard enough. The funny thing is the media is so desperate for attention they can't help but talk about Bernie for the clicks (You see a lot more about him online than on MSM) I was going to go to a Hillary meetup to compare it to the Sanders stuff but there isn't a single meeting within 250 miles of where I live for the foreseeable future (for comparison there are *update* over 50 within 50 miles for Bernie). + Show Spoiler +Over a thousand people have RSVP'd for July 29th just since I posted the link lol. EDIT: I guess I should ask what it is you are suggesting I should do as a current Bernie supporter?
Go ahead and support him and vote for him (I will be doing the same thing) but stop working and advocating for Bernie so much, it is similar to 9/11 and JFK conspiracy theorists who spend hundreds, if not thousands of hours trying to debunk something that is nuts when that time could have been spent on stopping the war.
To give an example, there is the Green Party that put so much energy in trying to elect politicians to offices and that ended in a big failure, lots of money and labor wasted on getting nowhere. That is what will most likely happen if Bernie loses. If Bernie wins, he will have to deal with an incredibly broken form of government, and one political party that is run by the insane, corrupt, and evil, and the other party is run by cowardice, corruption, and false images, and Bernie is going to have to work with that party while dealing with the other one.
With this in mind, there are many things people are doing rather than participating in elections. The first one has been to strengthen a third party to combat the corruption and incompetence of both parties like Socialist Alternative has been doing. The second one is a grassroots movement that is less concerned about electoral politics and more about political pressure. Examples of this is women's suffrage, civil rights, and the labor movement. Imagine of MLK told his supporters that the most effective way to end segregation was to wait until the next election and vote for the Democrats and Republicans that support their cause?
The third one is to refuse to participate in the political system and overthrowing it with the Constitution. It can include a new society that is not a liberal democracy or a new liberal democracy with a change in the constitution with a whole new set of laws.
I am not exactly thrilled about the first option but the second and third one have brought more success than electing people into office. Of course, that is not to say that grassroot movements such as Occupy and the kind of people found in the ANSWER Coalition are exactly inspiring, but has most certainly done more to raise important questions than Sanders or Ron Paul.
Karl Popper did state that those who usually run for office either tend to be abysmal at worst or incompetent at best which means that the strength of democracy should come somewhere else than gathering votes.
|
On July 17 2015 18:22 Shiragaku wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2015 17:55 GreenHorizons wrote:On July 17 2015 17:43 Shiragaku wrote:
All right, side as you will, but I am certain that if Bernie wins, he will be a letdown and conversation about him will shift from his greatness and ideas to defending the harsh reality. And if he loses, then I will snooze away as the cult whines about how unfair media is in America. I'm sure some people will be let down when the reality of how much work changing politics really is, but I won't be whining about the media. We knew going into this (at least his earlier supporters) that the media was going to fight us the whole way, if he doesn't win it will be because we didn't work hard enough. The funny thing is the media is so desperate for attention they can't help but talk about Bernie for the clicks (You see a lot more about him online than on MSM) I was going to go to a Hillary meetup to compare it to the Sanders stuff but there isn't a single meeting within 250 miles of where I live for the foreseeable future (for comparison there are *update* over 50 within 50 miles for Bernie). + Show Spoiler +Over a thousand people have RSVP'd for July 29th just since I posted the link lol. EDIT: I guess I should ask what it is you are suggesting I should do as a current Bernie supporter? Go ahead and support him and vote for him (I will be doing the same thing) but stop working and advocating for Bernie so much, it is similar to 9/11 and JFK conspiracy theorists who spend hundreds, if not thousands of hours trying to debunk something that is nuts when that time could have been spent on stopping the war. To give an example, there is the Green Party that put so much energy in trying to elect politicians to offices and that ended in a big failure, lots of money and labor wasted on getting nowhere. That is what will most likely happen if Bernie loses. If Bernie wins, he will have to deal with an incredibly broken form of government, and one political party that is run by the insane, corrupt, and evil, and the other party is run by cowardice, corruption, and false images, and Bernie is going to have to work with that party while dealing with the other one. With this in mind, there are many things people are doing rather than participating in elections. The first one has been to strengthen a third party to combat the corruption and incompetence of both parties like Socialist Alternative has been doing. The second one is a grassroots movement that is less concerned about electoral politics and more about political pressure. Examples of this is women's suffrage, civil rights, and the labor movement. Imagine of MLK told his supporters that the most effective way to end segregation was to wait until the next election and vote for the Democrats and Republicans that support their cause? The third one is to refuse to participate in the political system and overthrowing it with the Constitution. It can include a new society that is not a liberal democracy or a new liberal democracy with a change in the constitution with a whole new set of laws. I am not exactly thrilled about the first option but the second and third one have brought more success than electing people into office. Of course, that is not to say that grassroot movements such as Occupy and the kind of people found in the ANSWER Coalition are exactly inspiring, but has most certainly done more to raise important questions than Sanders or Ron Paul. Karl Popper did state that those who usually run for office either tend to be abysmal at worst or incompetent at best which means that the strength of democracy should come somewhere else than gathering votes.
The push on the election side is just because it's easier to rally more people around the issues with someone articulating them well on the national stage. There are already efforts for pushing the legislation he's recently been putting out and finding which other candidates down ballot will be the best option and will best reflect similar opinions as Bernie and/or the local constituency. Databases are also being made for supporters, organizers, designers (web/graphic), media outlets, and so much more.
The 29th is the first organizing meeting where local groups will figure out the basics of grassroots organizing for the other things you are suggesting. Bernie's campaign is bringing more attention to all of those groups (many will have representatives at the upcoming meetings) than they have been able to get on their own for years.
Everyone has their role and TL is my least active place recently, I've been helping coordinate video production, working with Bernie2016TV, and am finally linking up with the local groups now through some social hubs that have sprung up organically.
It's all a pretty cool experience and the people are pretty amazing. The Berniesphere has been an inspiring place seeing tens of thousands of people with similar but different views all coordinating and being able (the vast majority of the time) to respect each others differences.
All the people I work with aren't Bernie zealots we all respect Bernie for what he's done but would just as soon go out on our own with a third party if we felt he had abandoned us. We've got the overwhelming impression the people who are watching and participating would do the same. So if Bernie loses (I really don't think he will but I accept the possibility) we will quickly morph into a group who still supports the same issues, but with a wicked chip on our shoulder. Regardless Bernie's entire campaign is focused on the idea that it's not about him or any other candidate, it's about the issues.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrats that need replacing the worst don't make themselves apparent sooner than later as we start to see who's really standing in the way of significant changes.
For instance the site I mentioned isn't official, that's a site created by someone we're working with who comes with us and the issues not Sanders.
|
On July 17 2015 13:28 ticklishmusic wrote:
We already have a bunch of online learning stuff, but it's not too great so far. I feel like it'll be a few years before technology makes it a real viable alternative though.
MOOC's are great, but the completion rate is really bad.
And then you have stuff like ALEKS for college chem/physics which just makes people want to break their computers.
There's two major problems with digital education as it stands today:
1. Resistance by publishers (they like their cushy business model where they print and sell paper books, and also have a massive amount of control on the education market).
2. Resistance by teachers (technology is new, and unions don't like change).
But, things are going quite fast regardless. Check out this company: http://www.knewton.com/ They are doing it the best way, imho. But you know things are starting to heat up when pretty much every tech company in the world is trying to move into your area (Google, Apple, Samsung, Microsoft, Intel are all providing frameworks, testbeds and "solutions" for digital education in some way).
|
On July 17 2015 14:39 GreenHorizons wrote:Trying to force everyone into learning the same way is probably the single biggest drawback to the standardized education system. On politics: This is what grassroots look like when it's sponsored by hundreds of thousands of Americans and not big money and the banks. Hillary is trying the same thing and having much less success, I'm not sure if any of the republicans are even trying this yet? I think people are drastically underestimating him and his supporters. http://www.bernie2016events.org/july29
Conclusion: people in the midwest really don't want anything to do with Bernie Sanders? Or did I look at that infographic the wrong way? :D
|
On July 17 2015 20:50 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2015 14:39 GreenHorizons wrote:Trying to force everyone into learning the same way is probably the single biggest drawback to the standardized education system. On politics: This is what grassroots look like when it's sponsored by hundreds of thousands of Americans and not big money and the banks. Hillary is trying the same thing and having much less success, I'm not sure if any of the republicans are even trying this yet? I think people are drastically underestimating him and his supporters. http://www.bernie2016events.org/july29 Conclusion: people in the midwest really don't want anything to do with Bernie Sanders? Or did I look at that infographic the wrong way? :D
It's actually meetings for organizing. So there are less meetings in that area (there will be more after the weekend when Bernie swings through Arizona and Texas). Also the population is very sparse.
|
On July 17 2015 20:47 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2015 13:28 ticklishmusic wrote:
We already have a bunch of online learning stuff, but it's not too great so far. I feel like it'll be a few years before technology makes it a real viable alternative though.
MOOC's are great, but the completion rate is really bad.
And then you have stuff like ALEKS for college chem/physics which just makes people want to break their computers. There's two major problems with digital education as it stands today: 1. Resistance by publishers (they like their cushy business model where they print and sell paper books, and also have a massive amount of control on the education market). 2. Resistance by teachers (technology is new, and unions don't like change). But, things are going quite fast regardless. Check out this company: http://www.knewton.com/ They are doing it the best way, imho. But you know things are starting to heat up when pretty much every tech company in the world is trying to move into your area (Google, Apple, Samsung, Microsoft, Intel are all providing frameworks, testbeds and "solutions" for digital education in some way).
A couple key things missing from digital education are integration and personalization. Most industries have picked up on the trend, but education has fallen behind hard.
|
|
|
The only good thing I can think of that will come from Trump winning the Republican nomination is that they hand the Democrats the general elections on a silver platter. They don't even have to try.
|
On July 17 2015 17:55 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On July 17 2015 17:43 Shiragaku wrote:
All right, side as you will, but I am certain that if Bernie wins, he will be a letdown and conversation about him will shift from his greatness and ideas to defending the harsh reality. And if he loses, then I will snooze away as the cult whines about how unfair media is in America. I'm sure some people will be let down when the reality of how much work changing politics really is, but I won't be whining about the media. We knew going into this (at least his earlier supporters) that the media was going to fight us the whole way, if he doesn't win it will be because we didn't work hard enough. The funny thing is the media is so desperate for attention they can't help but talk about Bernie for the clicks (You see a lot more about him online than on MSM) I was going to go to a Hillary meetup to compare it to the Sanders stuff but there isn't a single meeting within 250 miles of where I live for the foreseeable future (for comparison there are *update* over 50 within 50 miles for Bernie). + Show Spoiler +Over a thousand people have RSVP'd for July 29th just since I posted the link lol. EDIT: I guess I should ask what it is you are suggesting I should do as a current Bernie supporter?
As a Paul supporter since 2007 let me tell you that meetups don't mean shit. It's nice and all you found someone you can support, but don't let the delusions seep in too deep.
|
On July 18 2015 02:07 Acrofales wrote:
The only good thing I can think of that will come from Trump winning the Republican nomination is that they hand the Democrats the general elections on a silver platter. They don't even have to try.
That's not even remotely accurate. Each party has a huge base that will be voting R or D no matter who the candidate is. W's 2nd term? Palin?
|
On July 18 2015 02:35 heliusx wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2015 02:07 Acrofales wrote:
The only good thing I can think of that will come from Trump winning the Republican nomination is that they hand the Democrats the general elections on a silver platter. They don't even have to try. That's not even remotely accurate. Each party has a huge base that will be voting R or D no matter who the candidate is. W's 2nd term? Palin?
No it is true imo. Trump would get trashed in a general election.
|
On July 18 2015 02:35 heliusx wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2015 02:07 Acrofales wrote:
The only good thing I can think of that will come from Trump winning the Republican nomination is that they hand the Democrats the general elections on a silver platter. They don't even have to try. That's not even remotely accurate. Each party has a huge base that will be voting R or D no matter who the candidate is. W's 2nd term? Palin?
W's 2nd term was against Kerry. It would be hard to find a more colourless person in a black and white movie. Palin was a VP candidate, and probably one of the contributing factors in McCain losing that election.
But... the current US political landscape requires politicians to court independents. And no way in hell is Trump going to get many votes from anybody who isn't a conservative (or a masochist).
http://www.gallup.com/poll/180440/new-record-political-independents.aspx
|
Romney got trashed because he was too rich friendly.
So... How would Trump not get trashed? He is everything Romney was by a factor of 10.
|
On July 18 2015 02:35 heliusx wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2015 02:07 Acrofales wrote:
The only good thing I can think of that will come from Trump winning the Republican nomination is that they hand the Democrats the general elections on a silver platter. They don't even have to try. That's not even remotely accurate. Each party has a huge base that will be voting R or D no matter who the candidate is. W's 2nd term? Palin?
There are plenty of people, even back in 2004, who identify more towards the center and can be swayed one way or another depending on the circumstances. W's 2nd term can be chalked up to Kerry being a god-awful presidential candidate, driving those people to the right. Palin was a fucking disaster, so I'm not sure how that proves your point. I was considering McCain until he picked her as a running mate, but the off-chance that Palin would inherit the presidency scared me off, and I was drinking the Obama kool-aid.
Trump is Palin 2.0. The diehard conservatives that would vote Republican anyway or stay home altogether will vote for him, but everyone else is either apprehensive or terrified of him. He would get annihilated in a general election, although it would be funny to see Sanders v. Trump on the national stage, since Sanders does the same exact thing for the other side in terms of alienating people in the middle. I still think Sanders would win though.
All that said, I think it would be a fatal mistake for anyone to not take Trump seriously (as a political candidate, as a person he's a joke). The minute people let off the gas thinking he can't possibly win, he will. And then we'll be stuck with him for four years.
|
On July 18 2015 02:48 Velr wrote:
Romney got trashed because he was too rich friendly.
So... How would Trump not get trashed? He is everything Romney was by a factor of 10.
Well he's rich, but it remains to be seen how "rich-friendly" he is. In fact, Trump may have one of the most progressive tax platforms among the Republican candidates. In the past he's advocated for a one-time tax on the extremely wealthy (like $10M+) in exchange for getting rid of the inheritance tax.
Romney's problem was he was boring, like Kerry. When the being wealthy and a Mormon are the two most interesting things about you, you've got a problem. Say all you want about him, but there are many things about Trump that are interesting.
|
On July 18 2015 02:48 Velr wrote:
Romney got trashed because he was too rich friendly.
So... How would Trump not get trashed? He is everything Romney was by a factor of 10.
Romney tried to hide his wealth and the far-left progressives ate him alive with the whole 1% thing.
Trump comes along and says "I'M RICH BITCH! AND I DON'T GIVE A FUUUUUK ABOUT SAYING IT!" Everything the far-left did to Romney isn't going to work here because Trump is appealing, rightly so, to the people who are sick and tired of politicians being bought off. Trump might be "crazy" but if it's the sort of "crazy" that makes him telling special interest to eat a dick because he's going to do shit his way, hen I'm not sure how that's a bad thing.
Now I hear John McCain is complaining that he is 'firing up the crazies'. If John McCain's is against Trump then I'm convinced Trump is doing something right.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
