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On January 24 2011 11:44 minimat wrote:
400 + 50 + 2624 - 2412 = 662
This means I should be playing all gold and silver players, correct? Wrong I'm playing low bronze league players so I have my doubts on the correctness of this.
If you're in bronze shouldn't you calculate 0 + 50 + 2624 - 2412 = 262
At least in OP he takes it from the lowest cut off point (For master 1701 and for diamond 1251 etc)
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P=1351
B=957
R=1715
T=2412
MMR=1611
hmm should be alright i think!
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According to your data, i need 132 points to get promoted to master league (not including the ~20 I currently have). I'll keep calculating my MMR and play ladder hard until i get that 132 pts, and see what happens 
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Interesting, thanks for putting in the work, was looking for a way to see how close I am to masters as I've been laddering a lot. my current rating is 2243+1350+353-2412 =1534. bit depressing as I've had a couple masters opponents and thought I was real close to a promotion lol.
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On January 24 2011 11:48 mlbrandow wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 11:40 CursedFeanor wrote:
From my understanding of the system, I believe your formula represents a pretty good and reliable way to situate ourselves when it comes to promotions. However the MMR is a different concept that is much more volatile and can not be derived uniquely from the variables you used. (most probably uses joint probabilistic models)
Still a valuable tool you figured out, props to you! But the name is misleading imho, it's not the MMR. I think you are potentially correct, although perhaps the only reason there are those who are slightly over (one guy at +42 over Master cutoff in diamond) would be because their sigma (that is, the reliability of their rating accurately reflecting their skill level) would need to be small enough to confidently promote.
This would certainly make a lot of sense indeed!  I wish Blizzard would be more open about the maths behind their system... would be interesting to see how right or wrong all our theories are.
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On January 24 2011 11:50 Mutaahh wrote:
P=1351
B=957
R=1715
T=2412
MMR=1611
hmm should be alright i think!
Although it doesn't strictly affect you, I adjusted the ladder just now because I mis-added the gold range.
So you have P = 1251, and MMR = 1511, but your promotion to Master is only 1700 now, so nothing has changed.
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well i read the whole thing and i think the forumla works only if the people trying to calculate arent horrible bad (rock bottom bronze) and have a maximum bonuspool of ~200. I have 1300+ bonuspool right now so it puts me way higher than i should be - also horrible players in bronze just get more points over time than they should have so the ranking can be off even if they are really bad and have a negative WLR,
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On January 24 2011 11:56 idonthinksobro wrote:
well i read the whole thing and i think the forumla works only if the people trying to calculate arent horrible bad (rock bottom bronze) and have a maximum bonuspool of ~200. I have 1300+ bonuspool right now so it puts me way higher than i should be - also horrible players in bronze just get more points over time than they should have so the ranking can be off even if they are really bad and have a negative WLR,
This could be explained by the sigma (standard deviation assuming they use gaussian distributions, which is a reasonable guess)! Until the player has played enough games to stabilize his MMR, he wont be promoted despite having enough "points" as computed in the OP. It all makes sense!
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Can you do the same with team league*?
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On January 24 2011 12:01 ChThoniC wrote:http://sc2ranks.com/us/481269/ChThoniC1250 + 9 + 2803 - 2412 = 1650 Looks like I'm still a bit away from Master, even though about 1/3 of my games are against Master leaguers.. Hmm.
50 points away (59 rating higher as I assume your 9 bonus will be used)
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1350+4+2734-2412=1676 for me.
Very interesting I'll check out my recent opponnents mmr's too and see if it adds up.
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So do you put the high value or low value cutoff (provided you're not in masters) when doing your calculation for P?
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Cool, seems like I'm about 15 points away from a promotion, I'm hoping I can get it tomorrow! Nice calculations.
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Puts my MMR around 1650 (diamond), calculations seem about right. Really cool that we've finally figured out some way to calculate this stuff (if it's actually correct, which it seems to be).
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United States12235 Posts
While this thread is incorrect, I will take this opportunity to restate what is known about the system:
1) When you are promoted or demoted, your new rating is equal to 73 + spent bonus pool. This has been proven across multiple leagues.
2) Divisions are not equal, and some contain varying offsets designed to normalize points across each league. Division tiers can be discovered only by the Top 200 weekly blog posts, which we know to be listed by points adjusted for these tiers. As such, while there may likely be such tiers in lower leagues, they cannot be determined due to point #1.
3) The Top 200 blog post for Jan 21 used a different calculation, a formula that has yet to be determined. The cause was to compensate for the mass promotions into Master league.
4) There is no way to calculate your MMR. MMR is hidden and will remain hidden. MMR is certainly not as simple as "points - unspent bonus pool".
5) Promotion is determined by a moving average of your MMR and the league boundaries in which it stabilizes. In order to get promoted, you must already be regularly beating players in your destination league. As such, there is no magic number associated with getting promoted. While there certainly are thresholds, those thresholds are intentionally hidden.
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On January 24 2011 12:05 coats wrote:
Can you do the same with team league*?
That's a good question.
I'll look up the ratings and post the findings.
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Thank you for this formula. It does explain why I'm in gold but keep getting "even match" with silvers.
One question though. How can I find out the Total Bonus Pool Points accrued this season on my own and how often do they update?
I would like to continue to track my progress.
Thanks again
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Just for a clarification: Promotions are purely point based? I do not think that this formula is calculating anything other than a "true points across divisions" for comparison measures.
Im pretty sure there is no fast and easy correlation between your points and MMR.
Edit: What Excal said
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EPT
