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MOD EDIT: This post is not accurate. There are still many inconsistencies that are not well explained. Do not use this to guess when you will be promoted as it will likely be inaccurate, particularly if you are a volatile player or have a lot of unspent bonus pool.
First, http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/Battle.net_Leagues
There's a lot of talk about hidden MMR and how you can't really see it. There are also people who reference this:
http://sc2ranks.com/ranks/all/master/1/all/pointpool/0/7
You can sort by Points - Bonus, which, for players with 0 bonus pool, accurately reflects their rating relative to the average Master player (0 being average).
But what is your true MMR?
I calculated (very roughly, pm'd sc2ranks to try to get better access to their data) rough estimates of your real hidden MMR and also how you can calculate it. The promotion cutoffs are as follows:
0-400 Bronze
401-640 Silver
641-900 Gold
901-1250 Platinum
1251-1700 Diamond
1701+ Master*
(updated, inflated Gold by 100 pts accidently)
How I got these rough numbers:
+ Show Spoiler +Using sc2ranks.com to sort by Points - Bonus, the top active players in each league have played out their bonus pool, showing roughly the largest possible relative MMR value allowed before promotion. The Silver league rating is simply the summation of the relative Silver MMR cutoff + Bronze MMR cutoff, etc to Master.
* It is worth noting that the demotion cutoff is different, and is not as easy to get a rough estimate from, as the lowest Points - Bonus players simply have high unspent bonus pools. My guess from some quick looks over leagues is around -50% of the relative cutoff. For Master League it seems to be about -200, or 1600 if you are currently IN Master League.
Now, in order to BE promoted, you must be in the top 50% of the league ABOVE you.
Edit: as per http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=187124¤tpage=2#31
Once you are promoted, Blizzard system attempts to reassess your skill by placing you at the median range of players in that bracket. This equates to Bonus Pool + 73 (or 2412 + 73 = 2285 as of this post).
source: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=183626
Now, how can you calculate your rating relative to all players across the leagues?
P = Promotion cutoff point value. If you're Master ~1700, Gold ~640, Bronze 0 etc (refer above).
B = Unspent Bonus Pool Points
R = Rank Points
T = Total Bonus Pool Points accrued this season (as of this post, 2412)
P + B + R - T= Hidden MMR
Add the base number for promotion for the league you are in PLUS Unspent Bonus points PLUS your rank points MINUS the total bonus points accrued this season (you can look this up in any league you played only 5 matches in.)
Give me an example because I can't read long blocks of text.
+ Show Spoiler +No problem! Let's take a look at one of the most active players atop the global ladder: http://sc2ranks.com/kr/76645/CheckPrimeHe's played a gazillion games, and he played a bunch yesterday, so we know his Unspent Bonus Pool is <12. For CheckPrime: P = 1800 (Master League) B = 0<B<12, my guess is ~5, since his last game was last night (KST) R = 3432 T = 2412 (as of this post) Hidden MMR = 1800 + (~5) + 3432 - 2412 = 2825 CheckPrime's Hidden MMR is 2825 (edit: he was in a game with BP=4 when I looked up HuK's accounts, so this is already about to be outdated.)
HuK's 2nd Korean account managed to co-rank him in the top 5 in the last Top 200 post. What MMR's are his two accounts at?
+ Show Spoiler +
As of this post, HuK1 is
P= 1800
B= 8
R= 3415
T= 2412
Hidden MMR = 2811
As of this post, HuK2 is
P = 1800
B = 87
R = 3392
T = 2412
Hidden MMR = 2867
I haven't been promoted and I'm in gold but I play like a boss and should be in Master League. What gives?
+ Show Spoiler +
Calculate your Hidden MMR, and see how close you are to actual league promotion!
Okay I calculated my Hidden MMR, and I'm actually slightly ABOVE the promotion cutoff. How come I haven't been promoted?
+ Show Spoiler +Quoted is information taken directly from the MMR thread that serves to better illustrate the why: On August 08 2010 08:59 Excalibur_Z wrote:PromotionAs initially theorized, promotion requires your MMR to be above a certain league threshold. However, because MMR changes greatly after each match and the opponent variation is so wide, often spanning multiple leagues, the system requires a particular degree of confidence before it allows promotion. Our initial theory assumed that sigma just needed to be small enough to allow promotion, but it's been confirmed that sigma never gets this small. Instead, it does this by a moving average. Here's an example: ![[image loading]](http://s2.kimag.es/share/37246343.jpg) MMR is erratic. A moving average seeks to smooth out the rapidly changing data points over time by evaluating your progress over X number of games. As we previously estimated, the system doesn't use your full match history because if it did, you would eventually get stuck in a league. Once your moving average crosses a particular league threshold, that's when you'll get promoted. Players like CauthonLuck and Ret who had obscene win ratios had their MMR data points skyrocket. However, the moving average lags behind. In the cases of those players, it will take much longer for the moving average to reach that required threshold. This is why players like IdrA who were affected by this problem have decided to intentionally throw games in order to get promoted, because it allows the moving average to catch up more quickly. Possibly related is players that aren't getting promoted or demoted properly despite a high likelihood that their moving average would have crossed the confidence threshold. Blizzard has said that this is indeed a bug and will be fixed by moving the affected players to new divisions. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=142211
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nice calculations
this is very helpful to see if i can get my promotion soon
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Okay so, here's my prof:
http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2276765/1/Tangoberry/
By your calculations, it should be...
1350 + 595 + 2106 - 2412 = 1639
and 1639 would be my "MMR"?
It's interesting and makes more sense than other "formulas" I've seen but I think Blizzard has said MMR has little to do with rank points? Also, Don't divisions in each league have a random difference?
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I am near the top of my Diamond division and some of my opponents are masters and your formula puts me at 1715 hidden MMR which is just a bit shy of the masters cutoff you posted so it definitely seems that your formula is accurate in my case at least.
Its interesting that you have to be better than 50% of the league above you to be promoted. That implies that the very top platinum players are actually better than the low diamond players and so on.
I think you may have an error though when you say that players over 2420 in diamond might be getting promoted as I know many players around 2800 are not.
Also, this doesn't seem to account for the desparity in divisions mentioned here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=169830
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Ok; I am playing on an account which is currently bronze, and according to your formula:
0 (cutoff for current league) + 0 (bonus pool) + 2603 (my current total points) -2412 = 191
Edit: im gud at tha mathz... lol. corrected myself and will edit again when I promote to silver which should be soon as I've been smurfing on this account. Will be interesting to see if my promotions match up with this formula.
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Very helpful and interesting, and it definitely does a good job of estimating. I'm high plat, but playing diamond leaguers, and it puts me at ~1300 (almost Diamond yay :D) so the formula's probably applicable.
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According to your logic that would mean I should be in gold even though I'm Rank 3 Bronze with an 868 MMR
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On January 24 2011 11:07 Joedaddy wrote:
Ok; I am playing on an account which is currently bronze, and according to your formula:
400 (cutoff for current league) + 0 (bonus pool) + 2603 (my current total points) -2412 = 591
So, if I am understanding what you are saying, and didnt do anything wrong, I should be in silver league, but am actually in bronze.
Let me know ^^
Edit: I've demoted this account twice now in the last several weeks to play around with off races from the bottom leagues up. I guess I could have broke the system in doing so and tainted the results?
I believe his formula uses the bottom cutoff so you should have a 0 rather than a 400 for the "cutoff for current league"
If you look at his example he says if you are in Diamond P should be 1350 which is the bottom end of the range.
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Very wrong.
When you are promoted into any division, your new point total is spent bonus pool + 73.
True for every league, regardless of how you were promoted. Therefore, there is no BARELY making it or what you tried to imply, everyone gets reset to spent bonus pool + 73 when they entered a new league.
Excalibur and SDream, along with a few others, figured this out when the master promotions happened.
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On January 24 2011 11:01 aznwolfstein wrote:Okay so, here's my prof: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2276765/1/Tangoberry/By your calculations, it should be... 1350 + 595 + 2106 - 2412 = 1639 and 1639 would be my "MMR"? It's interesting and makes more sense than other "formulas" I've seen but I think Blizzard has said MMR has little to do with rank points? Also, Don't divisions in each league have a random difference?
This is theoretically true and difficult, if not impossible to calculate if true. At that, it's still a pretty rough estimate.
According to this, you are solidly in the Diamond range, which makes sense since you are "+270".
I admittedly don't much understand the division tiers ranking, mostly because I don't understand how it accounts for unspent bonus pools (all different) among the different players in each division, which sc2ranks.com simply can't know, or at least can't calculate without some very brute force code behind it.
On January 24 2011 11:04 tarath wrote:
I am near the top of my Diamond division and some of my opponents are masters and your formula puts me at 1715 hidden MMR which is just a bit shy of the masters cutoff you posted so it definitely seems that your formula is accurate in my cases at least.
Its interesting that you have to be better than 50% of the league above you to be promoted. That implies that the very top platinum players are actually better than the low diamond players and so on.
I think you may have an error though when you say that players over 2420 in diamond might be getting promoted as I know many players around 2800 are not.
2420 in Diamond = 0 relative MMR according to this, meaning it's the 50%.
On January 24 2011 11:09 AyameStarcraft wrote:
According to your logic that would mean I should be in gold even though I'm Rank 3 Bronze with an 868 MMR
Link your account. If you are inactive it doesn't factor in well.
http://sc2ranks.com/ranks/all/bronze/1/all/pointpool
You'll notice there are several outliers at the top, and none of them are active.
On January 24 2011 11:15 ch33psh33p wrote:
Your number of 2420 just happens to be the current bonus pool + 73.
I am going off the max bonus pool, which I assumed was equal across all servers. I used the SEA bonus pool to check though, perhaps they are different. I'll look into this and get back to you in a minute.
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Your number of 2420 just happens to be the current bonus pool + 73.
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Assuming this is correct, my MMR is currently 1160 and I should be in Platinum, but I'm still sitting at rank 21 Gold. Maybe I should expect a promotion soon?
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I got promoted today from P to D, and my MMR now (haven't played any ladder games since my promotion game) is ~1423 calculated from:
1350 + 1006 + 1479 - 2412 (possibly slightly higher bonus pool right now).
In the game I got promoted from (about 6 hours before the above numbers, so ~3 bonus points have accrued since then) I won 22 points (11 from bonus pool) and had 1697 Platinum ladder points before I played that game.
So my MMR before my final game was 1000 + ~1014 + 1697 - ~2409 or ~1302 before I played my last Platinum game, and now it's ~1423.
So in one game my MMR would have jumped over 100 points...?
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On January 24 2011 11:13 mlbrandow wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 11:15 ch33psh33p wrote:
Your number of 2420 just happens to be the current bonus pool + 73. I am going off the max bonus pool, which I assumed was equal across all servers. I used the SEA bonus pool to check though, perhaps they are different. I'll look into this and get back to you in a minute.
Its already been PROVEN that when you get promoted, your point total is reset to spent bonus pool + 73.
This is true for promotion from ANY league to ANY other league, whether it be bronze to silver or erank diamond to masters.
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United States17042 Posts
I guess i'm waiting for excal to weigh in on this thread >>>
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seems to fit my case: high plat but not quite at the 50% level for diamond.
Im sort of cool on the moving average thing. Over the last month my win rate has been a touch north of 62% yet I passed two 30 game intervals and got nothing =/
btw whether you are right or wrong thanks for your work.
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Its not 100% accurate obviously but it seems to give a good general estimate of MMR because my calculated mmr is 1630 and my recent opponents had mmr's close to that rating as well.
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This doesn't work. Simply because the mmr is calculated completely independently of the fake "visible" rating.
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Don't know how you got the time or idea to figure this out, but holy shit.
Good job all round.
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1350+0+2904-2411 = 1,843 for me. ( http://sc2ranks.com/us/629078/Reason )
Still Diamond, will see soon if your formula is correct. 
EDIT: It seems like your 1800 is too low for getting promoted from Diamond into Master. As I am already 1843.
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according to your formula my mmr is almost 2k and i'm still in diamond, but i play masters almost every game. i've played probably 15 of them with a 50% ratio but it won't promote me.
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seems pretty inaccurate because:
-in masters evryone was reset to 23xx - bonus pool points
-division tiers
but ofc leave final judgement to people that now more about it ~
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EDIT: I understand now, rank points is your public rating.
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1800 + 1727 + 810 - 2412 = 1925
810 Points
1727 Bonus
Masters Rank 100 ( 43-27 )
Looks looks alright with my stats.
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On January 24 2011 11:24 Lythox wrote:
I'm diamond zerg and according to your formula my MMR is 2580, shouldn't I be master league then?
youre 3,7k diamond?
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This is not correct. Blizzard uses probabilistic equations that are based on some serious math. points are a rough estimate, and your "points minus bonus pool" are a better estimate, and your league helps your estimate too, but I bet you that if you took a pro player and had him play people starting from bronze league, he would quickly start playing top teir diamonds before his points were even close to theirs. Matchmaking rating determines who you get matched against. Blizzard ramps up your MMR much faster than they rank your points if you have a new account. You should read the thread on MMR if you want to know something close to their actual system.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=142211
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Maybe I'm missing something, but wouldn't this formula mean that unless your bonus pool is zero, your MMR can only decrease?
For every win, point rank is increased by (for example) 15, but your bonus pool also decreases by 15, leaving you with net zero gain. When you lose, your point rank decreases; net loss.
Correct me if I'm wrong - clearly you've put a lot of thought into this so I'm just curious about it.
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Are you sure you people are making the calculations correctly?
This seems accurate for me.
I'm diamond with 2741 points, and my calculated MMR is 1680, which put me as Diamond as I should be.
Hopefully, as more data are gathered, your formula could be proven to be true.
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On January 24 2011 11:27 Millicant wrote:
Maybe I'm missing something, but wouldn't this formula mean that unless your bonus pool is zero, your MMR can only decrease?
For every win, point rank is increased by (for example) 15, but your bonus pool also decreases by 15, leaving you with net zero gain. When you lose, your point rank decreases; net loss.
Correct me if I'm wrong - clearly you've put a lot of thought into this so I'm just curious about it.
No because for that win your point rank increases by 30. (15 + 15 bonus pool).
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On January 24 2011 11:10 ch33psh33p wrote:
Very wrong.
When you are promoted into any division, your new point total is spent bonus pool + 73.
True for every league, regardless of how you were promoted. Therefore, there is no BARELY making it or what you tried to imply, everyone gets reset to spent bonus pool + 73 when they entered a new league.
Excalibur and SDream, along with a few others, figured this out when the master promotions happened.
On January 24 2011 11:16 Lonyo wrote:
I got promoted today from P to D, and my MMR now (haven't played any ladder games since my promotion game) is ~1423 calculated from:
1350 + 1006 + 1479 - 2412 (possibly slightly higher bonus pool right now).
In the game I got promoted from (about 6 hours before the above numbers, so ~3 bonus points have accrued since then) I won 22 points (11 from bonus pool) and had 1697 Platinum ladder points before I played that game.
So my MMR before my final game was 1000 + ~1014 + 1697 - ~2409 or ~1302 before I played my last Platinum game, and now it's ~1423.
So in one game my MMR would have jumped over 100 points...?
To answer both, these calculations I showed only show pre-promotion MMR ratings. When you're promoted your MMR does change, as the system appears to attempt to reassess your skill level.
Once promoted, your MMR seems to be re-adjusted for the new league tier.
Hopefully if I can get access to more/better data, I can show what demotion cutoffs would be.
Again, these are rough estimates to show Master MMR / league promotion for lower leagues and give them a way to compare how "far away" they are from promotion range.
I could just as easily convert this:
0-400 Bronze
401-640 Silver
641-900 Gold
901-1250 Platinum
1251-1700 Diamond
1701+ Master*
to this:
Bronze <400 Silver
Silver <240 Gold
Gold <260 Platinum
Platinum <350 Diamond
Diamond <450 Master
Now, both the Bonus Pool + 73 theory and this one coincide.
I'll edit the OP though to adjust for this, since I didn't think about it before hand.
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On January 24 2011 11:29 Lythox wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 11:27 Millicant wrote:
Maybe I'm missing something, but wouldn't this formula mean that unless your bonus pool is zero, your MMR can only decrease?
For every win, point rank is increased by (for example) 15, but your bonus pool also decreases by 15, leaving you with net zero gain. When you lose, your point rank decreases; net loss.
Correct me if I'm wrong - clearly you've put a lot of thought into this so I'm just curious about it. No because for that win your point rank increases by 30. (15 + 15 bonus pool).
Ah so the point rank actually increases 30, not just the 15 from the win - gotcha. Thanks 
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On January 24 2011 11:27 McMonty wrote:This is not correct. Blizzard uses probabilistic equations that are based on some serious math. points are a rough estimate, and your "points minus bonus pool" are a better estimate, and your league helps your estimate too, but I bet you that if you took a pro player and had him play people starting from bronze league, he would quickly start playing top teir diamonds before his points were even close to theirs. Matchmaking rating determines who you get matched against. Blizzard ramps up your MMR much faster than they rank your points if you have a new account. You should read the thread on MMR if you want to know something close to their actual system. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=142211
Thanks, I've read this and do understand it.
It's quite possible to be promoted from Bronze straight to Diamond.
Once you eclipse the necessary points cutoff, your "skill" is reassessed and you are promoted.
It's true that this does not take into account the volatility of MMR, as simply reaching that value MAY NOT BE ENOUGH to promoted you, but it also may in fact be enough. These numbers are simply rough estimates based on the available data I have.
As more players post in here it may help refine the range.
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Well, I believe your formula to be roughly accurate. Which is pretty depressing for me, since my MMR was like 1500, so appearantly I'm not worthy of Master.
Im a 2100 Diamond with 218-198.
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From my understanding of the system, I believe your formula represents a pretty good and reliable way to situate ourselves when it comes to promotions. However the MMR is a different concept that is much more volatile and can not be derived uniquely from the variables you used. (most probably uses joint probabilistic models)
Still a valuable tool you figured out, props to you! But the name is misleading imho, it's not the MMR.
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400 + 50 + 2624 - 2412 = 662
This means I should be playing all gold and silver players, correct? Wrong I'm playing low bronze league players so I have my doubts on the correctness of this.
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If this is true, or "close enough", then great!
If not, then I wish that I wasn't so busy when 1.2 came out! Cus I probably would have been promoted to Masters much easier, while now I if you are right I have to be in the top 50% of Masters to promote? That's a bit jump 
Anyways most of the stuff I didn't get haha (how you derived it), but I get how to calculate it now. So cool. Thanks for the work
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On January 24 2011 11:44 minimat wrote:
400 + 50 + 2624 - 2412 = 662
This means I should be playing all gold and silver players, correct? Wrong I'm playing low bronze league players so I have my doubts on the correctness of this.
Try calculating the rating of the people you recently played, you might have similar ratings to theirs.
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On January 24 2011 11:40 CursedFeanor wrote:
From my understanding of the system, I believe your formula represents a pretty good and reliable way to situate ourselves when it comes to promotions. However the MMR is a different concept that is much more volatile and can not be derived uniquely from the variables you used. (most probably uses joint probabilistic models)
Still a valuable tool you figured out, props to you! But the name is misleading imho, it's not the MMR.
I think you are potentially correct, although perhaps the only reason there are those who are slightly over (one guy at +42 over Master cutoff in diamond) would be because their sigma (that is, the reliability of their rating accurately reflecting their skill level) would need to be small enough to confidently promote.
On January 24 2011 11:44 minimat wrote:
400 + 50 + 2624 - 2412 = 662
This means I should be playing all gold and silver players, correct? Wrong I'm playing low bronze league players so I have my doubts on the correctness of this.
If you're in bronze, you're at 262, which means this is accurate for you. Also, the cutoff for Master demotion appears to be ROUGHLY something like -200.
At Silver in 400, 262 would put you slightly above demotion range. In both cases, this calculation would appear an accurate measure of your skill level, considering the quality of opponents you are currently matched with.
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works almost perfectly for me, i just hit diamond and my mmr is 1371.
Good stuff, i hope it truly is accurate
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On January 24 2011 11:44 minimat wrote:
400 + 50 + 2624 - 2412 = 662
This means I should be playing all gold and silver players, correct? Wrong I'm playing low bronze league players so I have my doubts on the correctness of this.
If you're in bronze shouldn't you calculate 0 + 50 + 2624 - 2412 = 262
At least in OP he takes it from the lowest cut off point (For master 1701 and for diamond 1251 etc)
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P=1351
B=957
R=1715
T=2412
MMR=1611
hmm should be alright i think!
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According to your data, i need 132 points to get promoted to master league (not including the ~20 I currently have). I'll keep calculating my MMR and play ladder hard until i get that 132 pts, and see what happens
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Interesting, thanks for putting in the work, was looking for a way to see how close I am to masters as I've been laddering a lot. my current rating is 2243+1350+353-2412 =1534. bit depressing as I've had a couple masters opponents and thought I was real close to a promotion lol.
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On January 24 2011 11:48 mlbrandow wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 11:40 CursedFeanor wrote:
From my understanding of the system, I believe your formula represents a pretty good and reliable way to situate ourselves when it comes to promotions. However the MMR is a different concept that is much more volatile and can not be derived uniquely from the variables you used. (most probably uses joint probabilistic models)
Still a valuable tool you figured out, props to you! But the name is misleading imho, it's not the MMR. I think you are potentially correct, although perhaps the only reason there are those who are slightly over (one guy at +42 over Master cutoff in diamond) would be because their sigma (that is, the reliability of their rating accurately reflecting their skill level) would need to be small enough to confidently promote.
This would certainly make a lot of sense indeed! I wish Blizzard would be more open about the maths behind their system... would be interesting to see how right or wrong all our theories are.
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On January 24 2011 11:50 Mutaahh wrote:
P=1351
B=957
R=1715
T=2412
MMR=1611
hmm should be alright i think!
Although it doesn't strictly affect you, I adjusted the ladder just now because I mis-added the gold range.
So you have P = 1251, and MMR = 1511, but your promotion to Master is only 1700 now, so nothing has changed.
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well i read the whole thing and i think the forumla works only if the people trying to calculate arent horrible bad (rock bottom bronze) and have a maximum bonuspool of ~200. I have 1300+ bonuspool right now so it puts me way higher than i should be - also horrible players in bronze just get more points over time than they should have so the ranking can be off even if they are really bad and have a negative WLR,
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On January 24 2011 11:56 idonthinksobro wrote:
well i read the whole thing and i think the forumla works only if the people trying to calculate arent horrible bad (rock bottom bronze) and have a maximum bonuspool of ~200. I have 1300+ bonuspool right now so it puts me way higher than i should be - also horrible players in bronze just get more points over time than they should have so the ranking can be off even if they are really bad and have a negative WLR,
This could be explained by the sigma (standard deviation assuming they use gaussian distributions, which is a reasonable guess)! Until the player has played enough games to stabilize his MMR, he wont be promoted despite having enough "points" as computed in the OP. It all makes sense!
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Can you do the same with team league*?
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On January 24 2011 12:01 ChThoniC wrote:http://sc2ranks.com/us/481269/ChThoniC1250 + 9 + 2803 - 2412 = 1650 Looks like I'm still a bit away from Master, even though about 1/3 of my games are against Master leaguers.. Hmm.
50 points away (59 rating higher as I assume your 9 bonus will be used)
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1350+4+2734-2412=1676 for me.
Very interesting I'll check out my recent opponnents mmr's too and see if it adds up.
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So do you put the high value or low value cutoff (provided you're not in masters) when doing your calculation for P?
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Cool, seems like I'm about 15 points away from a promotion, I'm hoping I can get it tomorrow! Nice calculations.
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Puts my MMR around 1650 (diamond), calculations seem about right. Really cool that we've finally figured out some way to calculate this stuff (if it's actually correct, which it seems to be).
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United States12235 Posts
While this thread is incorrect, I will take this opportunity to restate what is known about the system:
1) When you are promoted or demoted, your new rating is equal to 73 + spent bonus pool. This has been proven across multiple leagues.
2) Divisions are not equal, and some contain varying offsets designed to normalize points across each league. Division tiers can be discovered only by the Top 200 weekly blog posts, which we know to be listed by points adjusted for these tiers. As such, while there may likely be such tiers in lower leagues, they cannot be determined due to point #1.
3) The Top 200 blog post for Jan 21 used a different calculation, a formula that has yet to be determined. The cause was to compensate for the mass promotions into Master league.
4) There is no way to calculate your MMR. MMR is hidden and will remain hidden. MMR is certainly not as simple as "points - unspent bonus pool".
5) Promotion is determined by a moving average of your MMR and the league boundaries in which it stabilizes. In order to get promoted, you must already be regularly beating players in your destination league. As such, there is no magic number associated with getting promoted. While there certainly are thresholds, those thresholds are intentionally hidden.
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On January 24 2011 12:05 coats wrote:
Can you do the same with team league*?
That's a good question.
I'll look up the ratings and post the findings.
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Thank you for this formula. It does explain why I'm in gold but keep getting "even match" with silvers.
One question though. How can I find out the Total Bonus Pool Points accrued this season on my own and how often do they update?
I would like to continue to track my progress.
Thanks again
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Just for a clarification: Promotions are purely point based? I do not think that this formula is calculating anything other than a "true points across divisions" for comparison measures.
Im pretty sure there is no fast and easy correlation between your points and MMR.
Edit: What Excal said
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Aww, I was excited about this equation, but Excalibur said no. If it was truly this simple to find the MMR, someone probably would've published this already.
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dunno if this is right. according to this, my mmr is 2000ish but im still stuck as #1 diamond. ive played at least 30 games (with roughly a 50/50 win rate against masters and/or high diamonds) this week but i have yet to be promoted. wtfffff
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On January 24 2011 12:11 Excalibur_Z wrote:
While this thread is incorrect, I will take this opportunity to restate what is known about the system:
1) When you are promoted or demoted, your new rating is equal to 73 + spent bonus pool. This has been proven across multiple leagues.
2) Divisions are not equal, and some contain varying offsets designed to normalize points across each league. Division tiers can be discovered only by the Top 200 weekly blog posts, which we know to be listed by points adjusted for these tiers. As such, while there may likely be such tiers in lower leagues, they cannot be determined due to point #1.
3) The Top 200 blog post for Jan 21 used a different calculation, a formula that has yet to be determined. The cause was to compensate for the mass promotions into Master league.
4) There is no way to calculate your MMR. MMR is hidden and will remain hidden. MMR is certainly not as simple as "points - unspent bonus pool".
5) Promotion is determined by a moving average of your MMR and the league boundaries in which it stabilizes. In order to get promoted, you must already be regularly beating players in your destination league. As such, there is no magic number associated with getting promoted. While there certainly are thresholds, those thresholds are intentionally hidden.
Do you have your top 200 (is it just NA?) in a data file? I'd like to look at it. Also, how do you calculate unspent bonus pools? Are you looking them up online individually?
I do agree and accept that it needs to confidently place you in those brackets, and the listed boundaries are rough estimates using only partial data I was able to access on sc2ranks.com
If you do have that data available for your top 200 list, please PM me, as I would like to have a look.
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When i tried the formula the way you described it, it wasnt correct. You might be thinking in the right direction, but i recall reading somewhere that blizzard also takes in consideration who you win and lose against when they make MMR.
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Glad Excal got in here and cleared it all up.
Figured something was fishy with how simple this calc was, that it was based on bonus and ranked points etc.
Especially considering that, let's say, I win my next (team even) 1v1 for +24 points. That is 12 points +12 bonus. Interesting that my hidden MMR would go up by exactly 12 points. So all I would really have needed to do to get that promotion was grind out 5 more wins or so.
It's a formula that moves your bonus pool around so that you end up with only the points you've earned on ladder without the pool altogether. Then this number is compared to the point brackets in the OP.
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It's not exact of course, but it seems like this formula gives a good ball park estimate.
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On January 24 2011 12:24 ZombiesOMG wrote:Glad Excal got in here and cleared it all up. Figured something was fishy with how simple this calc was, that it was based on bonus and ranked points etc. Especially considering that, let's say, I win my next (team even) 1v1 for +24 points. That is 12 points +12 bonus. Interesting that my hidden MMR would go up by exactly 12 points. So all I would really have needed to do to get that promotion was grind out 5 more wins or so. It looks to me like it's a formula that moves bonus pool around so that you just end up with the points you've earned on ladder without the pool altogether. Then this number is compared to league division point minimums taken from somewhere.
It's not based on bonus pool at all. It is completely subtracted out of the equation. Your MMR won't move as your bonus pool accrues, since both the Total Bonus Pool and your Unspent appreciate at the same value.
Your last paragraph is exactly what I describe in the original post. Judging from the most active and highest players ranked in Bronze, Silver, Gold, Platinum, and Diamond, we can get a rough idea of what the "cutoffs" are for promotion.
Keep in mind though that the Blizzard system has to confidently place you at or above it, so just reaching the mark isn't enough--you need to maintain it over X amount of games.
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United States12235 Posts
On January 24 2011 12:23 mlbrandow wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 12:11 Excalibur_Z wrote:
While this thread is incorrect, I will take this opportunity to restate what is known about the system:
1) When you are promoted or demoted, your new rating is equal to 73 + spent bonus pool. This has been proven across multiple leagues.
2) Divisions are not equal, and some contain varying offsets designed to normalize points across each league. Division tiers can be discovered only by the Top 200 weekly blog posts, which we know to be listed by points adjusted for these tiers. As such, while there may likely be such tiers in lower leagues, they cannot be determined due to point #1.
3) The Top 200 blog post for Jan 21 used a different calculation, a formula that has yet to be determined. The cause was to compensate for the mass promotions into Master league.
4) There is no way to calculate your MMR. MMR is hidden and will remain hidden. MMR is certainly not as simple as "points - unspent bonus pool".
5) Promotion is determined by a moving average of your MMR and the league boundaries in which it stabilizes. In order to get promoted, you must already be regularly beating players in your destination league. As such, there is no magic number associated with getting promoted. While there certainly are thresholds, those thresholds are intentionally hidden. Do you have your top 200 (is it just NA?) in a data file? I'd like to look at it. Also, how do you calculate unspent bonus pools? Are you looking them up online individually? I do agree and accept that it needs to confidently place you in those brackets, and the listed boundaries are rough estimates using only partial data I was able to access on sc2ranks.com If you do have that data available for your top 200 list, please PM me, as I would like to have a look.
I post my parses from the Top 200 every week in the Division Tiers thread, right in the OP, in collapsible spoilers. It contains the points of each player as listed in their division at the time of the Top 200 snapshot, and through comparing those points, evidence of tiers emerges.
In the most recent Top 200 list from Jan 21, I knew from the community team that it was influenced by unspent bonus pool in some unknown way, so I attempted to establish a range of possible unspent bonus pools for each player based on how many games they had played and what their current unspent pool was when I pulled up their individual profiles on Battle.net. The snapshot was from 1:30 PM, I saw the blog post at 2:00 PM, and completed the parse at 3:30 PM, so the margin of error in unspent bonus pool for players whose win/loss records matched their snapshot records was +1 point.
I caution you in using SC2Ranks as a sole resource. It is extremely valuable and Shadowed is very resourceful and skilled, but you need to know where the data originates. For example, due to the large amount of server processing required, SC2Ranks tabulates divisions rather than individual player profiles. Furthermore, the refresh time can be as long as 24 hours per division, more than enough time to make pinpointing a league change impossible. The graphs that you see on each player's SC2Ranks page is a result of data garnered from each refresh point, and not every game they have played.
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mlbrandow how do you figure out the "top 50%" of the league above you?
For example on my terran account I'm currently rated 2511 in platinum with 53 unspent bonus pool. Using your formula I come up with 1053. Diamond starts at 1251 mmr, but what's the top 50% of diamond?
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On January 24 2011 12:33 Excalibur_Z wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 12:23 mlbrandow wrote:On January 24 2011 12:11 Excalibur_Z wrote:
While this thread is incorrect, I will take this opportunity to restate what is known about the system:
1) When you are promoted or demoted, your new rating is equal to 73 + spent bonus pool. This has been proven across multiple leagues.
2) Divisions are not equal, and some contain varying offsets designed to normalize points across each league. Division tiers can be discovered only by the Top 200 weekly blog posts, which we know to be listed by points adjusted for these tiers. As such, while there may likely be such tiers in lower leagues, they cannot be determined due to point #1.
3) The Top 200 blog post for Jan 21 used a different calculation, a formula that has yet to be determined. The cause was to compensate for the mass promotions into Master league.
4) There is no way to calculate your MMR. MMR is hidden and will remain hidden. MMR is certainly not as simple as "points - unspent bonus pool".
5) Promotion is determined by a moving average of your MMR and the league boundaries in which it stabilizes. In order to get promoted, you must already be regularly beating players in your destination league. As such, there is no magic number associated with getting promoted. While there certainly are thresholds, those thresholds are intentionally hidden. Do you have your top 200 (is it just NA?) in a data file? I'd like to look at it. Also, how do you calculate unspent bonus pools? Are you looking them up online individually? I do agree and accept that it needs to confidently place you in those brackets, and the listed boundaries are rough estimates using only partial data I was able to access on sc2ranks.com If you do have that data available for your top 200 list, please PM me, as I would like to have a look. I post my parses from the Top 200 every week in the Division Tiers thread, right in the OP, in collapsible spoilers. It contains the points of each player as listed in their division at the time of the Top 200 snapshot, and through comparing those points, evidence of tiers emerges. In the most recent Top 200 list from Jan 21, I knew from the community team that it was influenced by unspent bonus pool in some unknown way, so I attempted to establish a range of possible unspent bonus pools for each player based on how many games they had played and what their current unspent pool was when I pulled up their individual profiles on Battle.net]. The snapshot was from 1:30 PM, I saw the blog post at 2:00 PM, and completed the parse at 3:30 PM, so the margin of error in unspent bonus pool for players whose win/loss records matched their snapshot records was +1 point.
Right, but it's just a big pasted block of text. Do you do it by hand? or do you use a spreadsheet? I can import the existing output as a csv I guess.
Anyway thanks for compiling it, even if by hand.
edit: I'm an idiot, and word 2010 just does this automatically. I pasted it an got it into a spreadsheet with ease. Thanks again.
On January 24 2011 12:39 Dionyseus wrote:
mlbrandow how do you figure out the "top 50%" of the league above you?
For example on my terran account I'm currently rated 2511 in platinum with 53 unspent bonus pool. Using your formula I come up with 1053. Diamond starts at 1251 mmr, but what's the top 50% of diamond?
According to the tool, once you confidently reach that 1250 marker, you are "reevaluated" when you are promoted. Assuming you promote to diamond, it would place you at
2412 + 73 = 2484.
The 50% ratio for a "diamond player" would just be the bonus pool value at any given time. As of this post, I think it's still 2412 (appreciating 1 pt per 2 hours)
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Thanks for laying out the math, this is extremely useful
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United States12235 Posts
I use Excel, but across two different workstations and the spreadsheets themselves aren't well organized. It's all done by hand.
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revolutionary post!
keep up the good work
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whats the difference between B and T?
bonus pool and total? I only see one
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On January 24 2011 12:50 Anomalus wrote:
whats the difference between B and T?
bonus pool and total? I only see one
B is unspent bonus pool, in other words it's the bonus spool that you haven't used yet. You can see what it is at the top right of your ladder page. T is currently around 2412
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On January 24 2011 12:42 Excalibur_Z wrote:
I use Excel, but across two different workstations and the spreadsheets themselves aren't well organized. It's all done by hand.
Maybe I didn't look hard enough, but what was the bonus pool at the time of your posting the latest NA top 200?
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This appears to be a good estimate of my standing in Silver. Interesting formula, but I don't know how accurate it is.
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All I'm saying is this puts my mmr a little below masters, and I'm currently playing 1 or 2 ranked players in diamond so it seems to be working alright.
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United States12235 Posts
On January 24 2011 13:18 mlbrandow wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 12:42 Excalibur_Z wrote:
I use Excel, but across two different workstations and the spreadsheets themselves aren't well organized. It's all done by hand. Maybe I didn't look hard enough, but what was the bonus pool at the time of your posting the latest NA top 200?
I don't track that actively, it was probably around 2350-2380.
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I'm pretty sure this is 100% wrong.
There's no way to get your MMR from your rating. It doesn't work that way. The two aren't directly correlated.
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United States12235 Posts
In any case, I'm closing this due to lack of evidence. I encourage you to keep trying to learn more about the ladder and working to solve the unanswered questions just as we will continue to do.
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1500 Bronze with 1300 Bonus pool remaining.
Yeah; that puts me at mid-gold. Why haven't I been promoted?
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EPT
