EPTFirst, http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/Battle.net_Leagues
There's a lot of talk about hidden MMR and how you can't really see it. There are also people who reference this:
http://sc2ranks.com/ranks/all/master/1/all/pointpool/0/7
You can sort by Points - Bonus, which, for players with 0 bonus pool, accurately reflects their rating relative to the average Master player (0 being average).
But what is your true MMR?
I calculated (very roughly, pm'd sc2ranks to try to get better access to their data) rough estimates of your real hidden MMR and also how you can calculate it. The promotion cutoffs are as follows:
0-400 Bronze
401-640 Silver
641-900 Gold
901-1250 Platinum
1251-1700 Diamond
1701+ Master*
(updated, inflated Gold by 100 pts accidently)
How I got these rough numbers:
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Using sc2ranks.com to sort by Points - Bonus, the top active players in each league have played out their bonus pool, showing roughly the largest possible relative MMR value allowed before promotion. The Silver league rating is simply the summation of the relative Silver MMR cutoff + Bronze MMR cutoff, etc to Master.
* It is worth noting that the demotion cutoff is different, and is not as easy to get a rough estimate from, as the lowest Points - Bonus players simply have high unspent bonus pools. My guess from some quick looks over leagues is around -50% of the relative cutoff. For Master League it seems to be about -200, or 1600 if you are currently IN Master League.
* It is worth noting that the demotion cutoff is different, and is not as easy to get a rough estimate from, as the lowest Points - Bonus players simply have high unspent bonus pools. My guess from some quick looks over leagues is around -50% of the relative cutoff. For Master League it seems to be about -200, or 1600 if you are currently IN Master League.
Now, in order to BE promoted, you must be in the top 50% of the league ABOVE you.
Edit: as per http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=187124¤tpage=2#31
Once you are promoted, Blizzard system attempts to reassess your skill by placing you at the median range of players in that bracket. This equates to Bonus Pool + 73 (or 2412 + 73 = 2285 as of this post).
source: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=183626
Now, how can you calculate your rating relative to all players across the leagues?
P = Promotion cutoff point value. If you're Master ~1700, Gold ~640, Bronze 0 etc (refer above).
B = Unspent Bonus Pool Points
R = Rank Points
T = Total Bonus Pool Points accrued this season (as of this post, 2412)
P + B + R - T= Hidden MMR
Add the base number for promotion for the league you are in PLUS Unspent Bonus points PLUS your rank points MINUS the total bonus points accrued this season (you can look this up in any league you played only 5 matches in.)
Give me an example because I can't read long blocks of text.
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No problem! Let's take a look at one of the most active players atop the global ladder:
http://sc2ranks.com/kr/76645/CheckPrime
He's played a gazillion games, and he played a bunch yesterday, so we know his Unspent Bonus Pool is <12.
For CheckPrime:
P = 1800 (Master League)
B = 0<B<12, my guess is ~5, since his last game was last night (KST)
R = 3432
T = 2412 (as of this post)
Hidden MMR = 1800 + (~5) + 3432 - 2412 = 2825
CheckPrime's Hidden MMR is 2825 (edit: he was in a game with BP=4 when I looked up HuK's accounts, so this is already about to be outdated.)
HuK's 2nd Korean account managed to co-rank him in the top 5 in the last Top 200 post. What MMR's are his two accounts at?
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As of this post, HuK1 is
P= 1800
B= 8
R= 3415
T= 2412
Hidden MMR = 2811
As of this post, HuK2 is
P = 1800
B = 87
R = 3392
T = 2412
Hidden MMR = 2867
I haven't been promoted and I'm in gold but I play like a boss and should be in Master League. What gives?
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Calculate your Hidden MMR, and see how close you are to actual league promotion!
Okay I calculated my Hidden MMR, and I'm actually slightly ABOVE the promotion cutoff. How come I haven't been promoted?
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Quoted is information taken directly from the MMR thread that serves to better illustrate the why:
On August 08 2010 08:59 Excalibur_Z wrote:
Promotion
As initially theorized, promotion requires your MMR to be above a certain league threshold. However, because MMR changes greatly after each match and the opponent variation is so wide, often spanning multiple leagues, the system requires a particular degree of confidence before it allows promotion. Our initial theory assumed that sigma just needed to be small enough to allow promotion, but it's been confirmed that sigma never gets this small. Instead, it does this by a moving average. Here's an example:
![[image loading]](http://s2.kimag.es/share/37246343.jpg)
MMR is erratic. A moving average seeks to smooth out the rapidly changing data points over time by evaluating your progress over X number of games. As we previously estimated, the system doesn't use your full match history because if it did, you would eventually get stuck in a league. Once your moving average crosses a particular league threshold, that's when you'll get promoted.
Players like CauthonLuck and Ret who had obscene win ratios had their MMR data points skyrocket. However, the moving average lags behind. In the cases of those players, it will take much longer for the moving average to reach that required threshold. This is why players like IdrA who were affected by this problem have decided to intentionally throw games in order to get promoted, because it allows the moving average to catch up more quickly.
Possibly related is players that aren't getting promoted or demoted properly despite a high likelihood that their moving average would have crossed the confidence threshold. Blizzard has said that this is indeed a bug and will be fixed by moving the affected players to new divisions.
Promotion
As initially theorized, promotion requires your MMR to be above a certain league threshold. However, because MMR changes greatly after each match and the opponent variation is so wide, often spanning multiple leagues, the system requires a particular degree of confidence before it allows promotion. Our initial theory assumed that sigma just needed to be small enough to allow promotion, but it's been confirmed that sigma never gets this small. Instead, it does this by a moving average. Here's an example:
MMR is erratic. A moving average seeks to smooth out the rapidly changing data points over time by evaluating your progress over X number of games. As we previously estimated, the system doesn't use your full match history because if it did, you would eventually get stuck in a league. Once your moving average crosses a particular league threshold, that's when you'll get promoted.
Players like CauthonLuck and Ret who had obscene win ratios had their MMR data points skyrocket. However, the moving average lags behind. In the cases of those players, it will take much longer for the moving average to reach that required threshold. This is why players like IdrA who were affected by this problem have decided to intentionally throw games in order to get promoted, because it allows the moving average to catch up more quickly.
Possibly related is players that aren't getting promoted or demoted properly despite a high likelihood that their moving average would have crossed the confidence threshold. Blizzard has said that this is indeed a bug and will be fixed by moving the affected players to new divisions.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=142211
