EPT[D] Calculating hidden MMR (and Promotion Time) - Page 2
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Silidons
United States2813 Posts
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BeMannerDuPenner
Germany5638 Posts
-in masters evryone was reset to 23xx - bonus pool points -division tiers but ofc leave final judgement to people that now more about it ~ | ||
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Hikko
United States1126 Posts
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Lythox
Netherlands161 Posts
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EZjijy
United States1039 Posts
810 Points 1727 Bonus Masters Rank 100 ( 43-27 ) Looks looks alright with my stats. | ||
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BeMannerDuPenner
Germany5638 Posts
On January 24 2011 11:24 Lythox wrote: I'm diamond zerg and according to your formula my MMR is 2580, shouldn't I be master league then? youre 3,7k diamond? | ||
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McMonty
Canada379 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=142211 | ||
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Millicant
United States78 Posts
For every win, point rank is increased by (for example) 15, but your bonus pool also decreases by 15, leaving you with net zero gain. When you lose, your point rank decreases; net loss. Correct me if I'm wrong - clearly you've put a lot of thought into this so I'm just curious about it. | ||
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fabiano
Brazil4644 Posts
This seems accurate for me. I'm diamond with 2741 points, and my calculated MMR is 1680, which put me as Diamond as I should be. Hopefully, as more data are gathered, your formula could be proven to be true. | ||
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Lythox
Netherlands161 Posts
On January 24 2011 11:27 Millicant wrote: Maybe I'm missing something, but wouldn't this formula mean that unless your bonus pool is zero, your MMR can only decrease? For every win, point rank is increased by (for example) 15, but your bonus pool also decreases by 15, leaving you with net zero gain. When you lose, your point rank decreases; net loss. Correct me if I'm wrong - clearly you've put a lot of thought into this so I'm just curious about it. No because for that win your point rank increases by 30. (15 + 15 bonus pool). | ||
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michaelhasanalias
Korea (South)1231 Posts
On January 24 2011 11:10 ch33psh33p wrote: Very wrong. When you are promoted into any division, your new point total is spent bonus pool + 73. True for every league, regardless of how you were promoted. Therefore, there is no BARELY making it or what you tried to imply, everyone gets reset to spent bonus pool + 73 when they entered a new league. Excalibur and SDream, along with a few others, figured this out when the master promotions happened. On January 24 2011 11:16 Lonyo wrote: I got promoted today from P to D, and my MMR now (haven't played any ladder games since my promotion game) is ~1423 calculated from: 1350 + 1006 + 1479 - 2412 (possibly slightly higher bonus pool right now). In the game I got promoted from (about 6 hours before the above numbers, so ~3 bonus points have accrued since then) I won 22 points (11 from bonus pool) and had 1697 Platinum ladder points before I played that game. So my MMR before my final game was 1000 + ~1014 + 1697 - ~2409 or ~1302 before I played my last Platinum game, and now it's ~1423. So in one game my MMR would have jumped over 100 points...? To answer both, these calculations I showed only show pre-promotion MMR ratings. When you're promoted your MMR does change, as the system appears to attempt to reassess your skill level. Once promoted, your MMR seems to be re-adjusted for the new league tier. Hopefully if I can get access to more/better data, I can show what demotion cutoffs would be. Again, these are rough estimates to show Master MMR / league promotion for lower leagues and give them a way to compare how "far away" they are from promotion range. I could just as easily convert this: 0-400 Bronze 401-640 Silver 641-900 Gold 901-1250 Platinum 1251-1700 Diamond 1701+ Master* to this: Bronze <400 Silver Silver <240 Gold Gold <260 Platinum Platinum <350 Diamond Diamond <450 Master Now, both the Bonus Pool + 73 theory and this one coincide. I'll edit the OP though to adjust for this, since I didn't think about it before hand. | ||
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Millicant
United States78 Posts
On January 24 2011 11:29 Lythox wrote: No because for that win your point rank increases by 30. (15 + 15 bonus pool). Ah so the point rank actually increases 30, not just the 15 from the win - gotcha. Thanks  | ||
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michaelhasanalias
Korea (South)1231 Posts
On January 24 2011 11:27 McMonty wrote: This is not correct. Blizzard uses probabilistic equations that are based on some serious math. points are a rough estimate, and your "points minus bonus pool" are a better estimate, and your league helps your estimate too, but I bet you that if you took a pro player and had him play people starting from bronze league, he would quickly start playing top teir diamonds before his points were even close to theirs. Matchmaking rating determines who you get matched against. Blizzard ramps up your MMR much faster than they rank your points if you have a new account. You should read the thread on MMR if you want to know something close to their actual system. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=142211 Thanks, I've read this and do understand it. It's quite possible to be promoted from Bronze straight to Diamond. Once you eclipse the necessary points cutoff, your "skill" is reassessed and you are promoted. It's true that this does not take into account the volatility of MMR, as simply reaching that value MAY NOT BE ENOUGH to promoted you, but it also may in fact be enough. These numbers are simply rough estimates based on the available data I have. As more players post in here it may help refine the range. | ||
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PraetorianX
Sweden780 Posts
Im a 2100 Diamond with 218-198. | ||
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CursedFeanor
Canada539 Posts
Still a valuable tool you figured out, props to you! But the name is misleading imho, it's not the MMR. | ||
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minimat
Australia344 Posts
This means I should be playing all gold and silver players, correct? Wrong I'm playing low bronze league players so I have my doubts on the correctness of this. | ||
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Yoshi Kirishima
United States10331 Posts
If not, then I wish that I wasn't so busy when 1.2 came out! Cus I probably would have been promoted to Masters much easier, while now I if you are right I have to be in the top 50% of Masters to promote? That's a bit jump  Anyways most of the stuff I didn't get haha (how you derived it), but I get how to calculate it now. So cool. Thanks for the work | ||
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Serendipityx
United States595 Posts
On January 24 2011 11:44 minimat wrote: 400 + 50 + 2624 - 2412 = 662 This means I should be playing all gold and silver players, correct? Wrong I'm playing low bronze league players so I have my doubts on the correctness of this. Try calculating the rating of the people you recently played, you might have similar ratings to theirs. | ||
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michaelhasanalias
Korea (South)1231 Posts
On January 24 2011 11:40 CursedFeanor wrote: From my understanding of the system, I believe your formula represents a pretty good and reliable way to situate ourselves when it comes to promotions. However the MMR is a different concept that is much more volatile and can not be derived uniquely from the variables you used. (most probably uses joint probabilistic models) Still a valuable tool you figured out, props to you! But the name is misleading imho, it's not the MMR. I think you are potentially correct, although perhaps the only reason there are those who are slightly over (one guy at +42 over Master cutoff in diamond) would be because their sigma (that is, the reliability of their rating accurately reflecting their skill level) would need to be small enough to confidently promote. On January 24 2011 11:44 minimat wrote: 400 + 50 + 2624 - 2412 = 662 This means I should be playing all gold and silver players, correct? Wrong I'm playing low bronze league players so I have my doubts on the correctness of this. If you're in bronze, you're at 262, which means this is accurate for you. Also, the cutoff for Master demotion appears to be ROUGHLY something like -200. At Silver in 400, 262 would put you slightly above demotion range. In both cases, this calculation would appear an accurate measure of your skill level, considering the quality of opponents you are currently matched with. | ||
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Doomblaze
United States1292 Posts
Good stuff, i hope it truly is accurate | ||
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