EPT[D] Calculating hidden MMR (and Promotion Time) - Page 4
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holy_war
United States3590 Posts
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da_head
Canada3350 Posts
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michaelhasanalias
Korea (South)1231 Posts
On January 24 2011 12:11 Excalibur_Z wrote: While this thread is incorrect, I will take this opportunity to restate what is known about the system: 1) When you are promoted or demoted, your new rating is equal to 73 + spent bonus pool. This has been proven across multiple leagues. 2) Divisions are not equal, and some contain varying offsets designed to normalize points across each league. Division tiers can be discovered only by the Top 200 weekly blog posts, which we know to be listed by points adjusted for these tiers. As such, while there may likely be such tiers in lower leagues, they cannot be determined due to point #1. 3) The Top 200 blog post for Jan 21 used a different calculation, a formula that has yet to be determined. The cause was to compensate for the mass promotions into Master league. 4) There is no way to calculate your MMR. MMR is hidden and will remain hidden. MMR is certainly not as simple as "points - unspent bonus pool". 5) Promotion is determined by a moving average of your MMR and the league boundaries in which it stabilizes. In order to get promoted, you must already be regularly beating players in your destination league. As such, there is no magic number associated with getting promoted. While there certainly are thresholds, those thresholds are intentionally hidden. Do you have your top 200 (is it just NA?) in a data file? I'd like to look at it. Also, how do you calculate unspent bonus pools? Are you looking them up online individually? I do agree and accept that it needs to confidently place you in those brackets, and the listed boundaries are rough estimates using only partial data I was able to access on sc2ranks.com If you do have that data available for your top 200 list, please PM me, as I would like to have a look. | ||
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B.I.G.
3251 Posts
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ZombiesOMG
United States282 Posts
Figured something was fishy with how simple this calc was, that it was based on bonus and ranked points etc. Especially considering that, let's say, I win my next (team even) 1v1 for +24 points. That is 12 points +12 bonus. Interesting that my hidden MMR would go up by exactly 12 points. So all I would really have needed to do to get that promotion was grind out 5 more wins or so.  It's a formula that moves your bonus pool around so that you end up with only the points you've earned on ladder without the pool altogether. Then this number is compared to the point brackets in the OP. | ||
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whatthefat
United States918 Posts
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michaelhasanalias
Korea (South)1231 Posts
On January 24 2011 12:24 ZombiesOMG wrote: Glad Excal got in here and cleared it all up. Figured something was fishy with how simple this calc was, that it was based on bonus and ranked points etc. Especially considering that, let's say, I win my next (team even) 1v1 for +24 points. That is 12 points +12 bonus. Interesting that my hidden MMR would go up by exactly 12 points. So all I would really have needed to do to get that promotion was grind out 5 more wins or so. It looks to me like it's a formula that moves bonus pool around so that you just end up with the points you've earned on ladder without the pool altogether. Then this number is compared to league division point minimums taken from somewhere. It's not based on bonus pool at all. It is completely subtracted out of the equation. Your MMR won't move as your bonus pool accrues, since both the Total Bonus Pool and your Unspent appreciate at the same value. Your last paragraph is exactly what I describe in the original post. Judging from the most active and highest players ranked in Bronze, Silver, Gold, Platinum, and Diamond, we can get a rough idea of what the "cutoffs" are for promotion. Keep in mind though that the Blizzard system has to confidently place you at or above it, so just reaching the mark isn't enough--you need to maintain it over X amount of games. | ||
Excalibur_Z
United States12235 Posts
On January 24 2011 12:23 mlbrandow wrote: Do you have your top 200 (is it just NA?) in a data file? I'd like to look at it. Also, how do you calculate unspent bonus pools? Are you looking them up online individually? I do agree and accept that it needs to confidently place you in those brackets, and the listed boundaries are rough estimates using only partial data I was able to access on sc2ranks.com If you do have that data available for your top 200 list, please PM me, as I would like to have a look. I post my parses from the Top 200 every week in the Division Tiers thread, right in the OP, in collapsible spoilers. It contains the points of each player as listed in their division at the time of the Top 200 snapshot, and through comparing those points, evidence of tiers emerges. In the most recent Top 200 list from Jan 21, I knew from the community team that it was influenced by unspent bonus pool in some unknown way, so I attempted to establish a range of possible unspent bonus pools for each player based on how many games they had played and what their current unspent pool was when I pulled up their individual profiles on Battle.net. The snapshot was from 1:30 PM, I saw the blog post at 2:00 PM, and completed the parse at 3:30 PM, so the margin of error in unspent bonus pool for players whose win/loss records matched their snapshot records was +1 point. I caution you in using SC2Ranks as a sole resource. It is extremely valuable and Shadowed is very resourceful and skilled, but you need to know where the data originates. For example, due to the large amount of server processing required, SC2Ranks tabulates divisions rather than individual player profiles. Furthermore, the refresh time can be as long as 24 hours per division, more than enough time to make pinpointing a league change impossible. The graphs that you see on each player's SC2Ranks page is a result of data garnered from each refresh point, and not every game they have played. | ||
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Dionyseus
United States2068 Posts
For example on my terran account I'm currently rated 2511 in platinum with 53 unspent bonus pool. Using your formula I come up with 1053. Diamond starts at 1251 mmr, but what's the top 50% of diamond? | ||
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michaelhasanalias
Korea (South)1231 Posts
On January 24 2011 12:33 Excalibur_Z wrote: I post my parses from the Top 200 every week in the Division Tiers thread, right in the OP, in collapsible spoilers. It contains the points of each player as listed in their division at the time of the Top 200 snapshot, and through comparing those points, evidence of tiers emerges. In the most recent Top 200 list from Jan 21, I knew from the community team that it was influenced by unspent bonus pool in some unknown way, so I attempted to establish a range of possible unspent bonus pools for each player based on how many games they had played and what their current unspent pool was when I pulled up their individual profiles on Battle.net]. The snapshot was from 1:30 PM, I saw the blog post at 2:00 PM, and completed the parse at 3:30 PM, so the margin of error in unspent bonus pool for players whose win/loss records matched their snapshot records was +1 point. Right, but it's just a big pasted block of text. Do you do it by hand? or do you use a spreadsheet? I can import the existing output as a csv I guess. Anyway thanks for compiling it, even if by hand. edit: I'm an idiot, and word 2010 just does this automatically. I pasted it an got it into a spreadsheet with ease. Thanks again. On January 24 2011 12:39 Dionyseus wrote: mlbrandow how do you figure out the "top 50%" of the league above you? For example on my terran account I'm currently rated 2511 in platinum with 53 unspent bonus pool. Using your formula I come up with 1053. Diamond starts at 1251 mmr, but what's the top 50% of diamond? According to the tool, once you confidently reach that 1250 marker, you are "reevaluated" when you are promoted. Assuming you promote to diamond, it would place you at 2412 + 73 = 2484. The 50% ratio for a "diamond player" would just be the bonus pool value at any given time. As of this post, I think it's still 2412 (appreciating 1 pt per 2 hours) | ||
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Noxie
United States2227 Posts
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Excalibur_Z
United States12235 Posts
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Anglory
United States8 Posts
keep up the good work | ||
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Anomalus
3 Posts
bonus pool and total? I only see one | ||
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Dionyseus
United States2068 Posts
On January 24 2011 12:50 Anomalus wrote: whats the difference between B and T? bonus pool and total? I only see one B is unspent bonus pool, in other words it's the bonus spool that you haven't used yet. You can see what it is at the top right of your ladder page. T is currently around 2412 | ||
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michaelhasanalias
Korea (South)1231 Posts
On January 24 2011 12:42 Excalibur_Z wrote: I use Excel, but across two different workstations and the spreadsheets themselves aren't well organized. It's all done by hand. Maybe I didn't look hard enough, but what was the bonus pool at the time of your posting the latest NA top 200? | ||
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kevinmon
United States540 Posts
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confusedcrib
United States1307 Posts
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Excalibur_Z
United States12235 Posts
On January 24 2011 13:18 mlbrandow wrote: Maybe I didn't look hard enough, but what was the bonus pool at the time of your posting the latest NA top 200? I don't track that actively, it was probably around 2350-2380. | ||
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-orb-
United States5770 Posts
There's no way to get your MMR from your rating. It doesn't work that way. The two aren't directly correlated. | ||
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