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On May 17 2021 02:38 BisuDagger wrote:
Glad my research paid off here. Gotta say though, this map pool was the best possible for Protoss. If mini gets similar maps in the ro4, he will be in the finals.
Wondering where you got the winrate stats for the preview? It seemed to differ quite a bit from sponbbang stats
For example this is map winrates for 2021 only: http://sponbbang.com/race/?month1=2021-01&month2=2021-05&bj=
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i wish these were bo7s, with how one sided all the series have been i feel like the broadcasts are over before they even begin FeelsBadMan
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On May 16 2021 20:58 oxKnu wrote:
Crappy Ro8. Bad, non-competitive series all around. These maps are not good.
I do agree with a previous post that now that Flash is not here to clean up the zergs, they'll start running rampant and truly dominate ASL.
It started last season and I think it will continue until whenever ASL is discontinued. (maybe 3 more seasons).
I don't think Rush is complete of a player and strong enough in offline settings to put up enough resistance on his own.
Relax, rush hasn't even played yet and is a favorite to make finals if not win ASL.
Also not all just balance, zerg has the most top tier active players so they should be overrepresented at the end of tournaments. Zero, Soma, Hero, Soulkey, Larva, Action- all go 50/50 with the beat players from every race. Toss only has Snow, Mini, Best, Bisu (id take the best zergs over all of these players in general). Terran only has Rush and Light left, then a few other players on the come up like Royal and JyJ
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Don't forget at one point it was looking pretty bad for Zerg in ro16. Zero almost got bounced. Big favorite Soma got dominated. Larva and Effort were by no means guaranteed to advance from group C and almost everyone thought Hero would get eliminated in the Terran group of death.
Let's wait and see how this plays out. Mini has the best PvZ right now and could beat Zero while Rush will be favored over Hero after he beats Larva.
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All that said, I am hype for Hero. I was calling Hero in the ro4 since before the tournament. Has had the hardest route of any player up to this point beating the #1 toss (snow) and #1 terran (rush) and had been the most dominant player in the tournament.
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On May 16 2021 22:07 TMNT wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2021 21:37 Magic Powers wrote:
Was rooting for Snow, but his PvZ still doesn't look polished enough. He rarely blunders and he has great army management, those seem to be his strong points. Hard to say what exactly cost him the match, but it surely wasn't down to luck. Game 1 he died from a hydra burst which is of no shame. All Protosses die from that. It's just the nature of the match up. Game 2 he won, so nothing to say here. Game 3 the map heavily favors Zerg with that strategy. Not much else he could do. Game 4 the lurker drops cost him the game. That's his "big" mistake. But it's no bigger a mistake than, say a Terran/Zerg not being able to dodge a storm drop in time (see game 3 where the storm/reaver drops did nothing to Zerg's econ). On the other hand, Hero did not do anything particularly special, he just played his standard game. I know this opinion may trigger some, but imo overall Snow did not play bad, he just didn't play good enough to overcome the deficit Protoss has to overcome in this match up and this map pool.
Losing an entire fully saturated Protoss probe line at that point in the game (early 3 base) is far worse than not dodging a storm drop (which generally come later in the game and the minerals are not nearly as saturated - plus zerg can replenish workers far faster with Larva). Toss should lose every single game this happens there is really no excuse. Not only did he not see it on the minimap, he didn't even react to the audio warning after the first spine shots.
This was more akin to not reacting at all to a marine drop at 10-12 minutes that wipes out the Zerg 3rd or main = GG. Or letting a DT wipe out an entire mineral line undetected (which is more understandable since there is nothing on the minimap and no sound cue).
Zergs have to react perfectly to these things multiple times per game or they lose. Instantly spotting dropships and reacting with scourge and army positioning. Seeing shuttles lategame and dodging the storms.
Really was a huge blunder letting those lurkers wreck all those probes - that cost Snow the series. He obviously wasn't ready for it at all because it hasn't been a popular move ZvP lately but if he had been watching Hero's games at all it should have been in the back of his mind.
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The hydra bust in G1 is also not free at all. There is a reason we actually don't see many successful hydra busts anymore. Hero had basically perfect control in this game and made all of the correct decisions as far as when to run in, how far to run in, had the perfect amount of hydras on each cannon, optimal timing, etc. That was an extremely clean display and shouldn't be underappreciated
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Good games all around, I think. Hero played so clean, I really enjoyed the series.
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On May 17 2021 03:02 Piste wrote:Snow winning this would have been upset  herO has the best ZvP on the planet.
That's not...even close to being the case.
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On May 17 2021 04:21 LpTraxamillion wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2021 22:07 TMNT wrote:On May 16 2021 21:37 Magic Powers wrote:
Was rooting for Snow, but his PvZ still doesn't look polished enough. He rarely blunders and he has great army management, those seem to be his strong points. Hard to say what exactly cost him the match, but it surely wasn't down to luck. Game 1 he died from a hydra burst which is of no shame. All Protosses die from that. It's just the nature of the match up. Game 2 he won, so nothing to say here. Game 3 the map heavily favors Zerg with that strategy. Not much else he could do. Game 4 the lurker drops cost him the game. That's his "big" mistake. But it's no bigger a mistake than, say a Terran/Zerg not being able to dodge a storm drop in time (see game 3 where the storm/reaver drops did nothing to Zerg's econ). On the other hand, Hero did not do anything particularly special, he just played his standard game. I know this opinion may trigger some, but imo overall Snow did not play bad, he just didn't play good enough to overcome the deficit Protoss has to overcome in this match up and this map pool. Losing an entire fully saturated Protoss probe line at that point in the game (early 3 base) is far worse than not dodging a storm drop (which generally come later in the game and the minerals are not nearly as saturated - plus zerg can replenish workers far faster with Larva). Toss should lose every single game this happens there is really no excuse. Not only did he not see it on the minimap, he didn't even react to the audio warning after the first spine shots. This was more akin to not reacting at all to a marine drop at 10-12 minutes that wipes out the Zerg 3rd or main = GG. Or letting a DT wipe out an entire mineral line undetected (which is more understandable since there is nothing on the minimap and no sound cue). Zergs have to react perfectly to these things multiple times per game or they lose. Instantly spotting dropships and reacting with scourge and army positioning. Seeing shuttles lategame and dodging the storms. Really was a huge blunder letting those lurkers wreck all those probes - that cost Snow the series. He obviously wasn't ready for it at all because it hasn't been a popular move ZvP lately but if he had been watching Hero's games at all it should have been in the back of his mind.
I dont think that ZvP is really fair but is close enough to say that snow played sloppy overall and mostly lost because of this
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Bisutopia19299 Posts
On May 17 2021 03:30 Scarlett` wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2021 02:38 BisuDagger wrote:
Glad my research paid off here. Gotta say though, this map pool was the best possible for Protoss. If mini gets similar maps in the ro4, he will be in the finals. Wondering where you got the winrate stats for the preview? It seemed to differ quite a bit from sponbbang stats For example this is map winrates for 2021 only: http://sponbbang.com/race/?month1=2021-01&month2=2021-05&bj=
TLPD stats from the top bar of TL. For SC2 they stopped using TLPD during HoTS, but it is still updated regularly for SC1.
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On May 17 2021 06:19 BisuDagger wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2021 03:30 Scarlett` wrote:On May 17 2021 02:38 BisuDagger wrote:
Glad my research paid off here. Gotta say though, this map pool was the best possible for Protoss. If mini gets similar maps in the ro4, he will be in the finals. Wondering where you got the winrate stats for the preview? It seemed to differ quite a bit from sponbbang stats For example this is map winrates for 2021 only: http://sponbbang.com/race/?month1=2021-01&month2=2021-05&bj= TLPD stats from the top bar of TL. For SC2 they stopped using TLPD during HoTS, but it is still updated regularly for SC1.
Whatever sources you are using for the stats, it doesn't seem right. If a map offers 66 or 77% win rate for one race, it's either the map is really fucked up, or the stats come from a very small sample size. Stats from sponbbang is the correct one to use: sample size is great, and it's games between Korean pros.
Here's the win rate for Protoss in PvZ in the maps played today: Hidden Track (41.4%), Ascension (54%), Ultimate Stream (44.7%), Eclipse (49.4%). So yeah, it does reflect the result though.
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Can confirm just from watching the pros play on these maps in preparation for ASL. On Hidden Track I've seen only one timing push from P that actually works and delivers before Zerg gets critical lurker numbers, everything else is just Zerg doing whatever and winning.
Ascension has been pretty cool, there's been some interesting macro games on that map. Not in ASL though.
Ultimate Stream is a grind that almost always seem to go the Zerg's way.
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Bisutopia19299 Posts
On May 17 2021 08:15 TMNT wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2021 06:19 BisuDagger wrote:On May 17 2021 03:30 Scarlett` wrote:On May 17 2021 02:38 BisuDagger wrote:
Glad my research paid off here. Gotta say though, this map pool was the best possible for Protoss. If mini gets similar maps in the ro4, he will be in the finals. Wondering where you got the winrate stats for the preview? It seemed to differ quite a bit from sponbbang stats For example this is map winrates for 2021 only: http://sponbbang.com/race/?month1=2021-01&month2=2021-05&bj= TLPD stats from the top bar of TL. For SC2 they stopped using TLPD during HoTS, but it is still updated regularly for SC1. Whatever sources you are using for the stats, it doesn't seem right. If a map offers 66 or 77% win rate for one race, it's either the map is really fucked up, or the stats come from a very small sample size. Stats from sponbbang is the correct one to use: sample size is great, and it's games between Korean pros. Here's the win rate for Protoss in PvZ in the maps played today: Hidden Track (41.4%), Ascension (54%), Ultimate Stream (44.7%), Eclipse (49.4%). So yeah, it does reflect the result though.
Map stats are based on the current ASL.
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Snow's play in g1 looked ok to me, can someone explain what he did wrong that made him die to the 3hh?
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On May 17 2021 09:42 chillzzz wrote:
Snow's play in g1 looked ok to me, can someone explain what he did wrong that made him die to the 3hh?
Hero is inhumanly good at squeezing out just the right number of hydras at the right time (in case you wanted the basic lay viewer explanation).
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On May 17 2021 09:42 chillzzz wrote:
Snow's play in g1 looked ok to me, can someone explain what he did wrong that made him die to the 3hh?
his wall in was a mess with the battery under the forge and the pylon positions but he tried to defend the +1 on forge anyway which cost him the game
building extra cannons on the back row first and cancelling +1 immediately/ making a new forge in main is the safer way to play that; he also wont have to fight as aggressively with the zealots in that case
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On May 17 2021 09:16 BisuDagger wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2021 08:15 TMNT wrote:On May 17 2021 06:19 BisuDagger wrote:On May 17 2021 03:30 Scarlett` wrote:On May 17 2021 02:38 BisuDagger wrote:
Glad my research paid off here. Gotta say though, this map pool was the best possible for Protoss. If mini gets similar maps in the ro4, he will be in the finals. Wondering where you got the winrate stats for the preview? It seemed to differ quite a bit from sponbbang stats For example this is map winrates for 2021 only: http://sponbbang.com/race/?month1=2021-01&month2=2021-05&bj= TLPD stats from the top bar of TL. For SC2 they stopped using TLPD during HoTS, but it is still updated regularly for SC1. Whatever sources you are using for the stats, it doesn't seem right. If a map offers 66 or 77% win rate for one race, it's either the map is really fucked up, or the stats come from a very small sample size. Stats from sponbbang is the correct one to use: sample size is great, and it's games between Korean pros. Here's the win rate for Protoss in PvZ in the maps played today: Hidden Track (41.4%), Ascension (54%), Ultimate Stream (44.7%), Eclipse (49.4%). So yeah, it does reflect the result though. Map stats are based on the current ASL.
Hence it doesn't make sense. The sample size is really irrelevant. You can't base on only a handful of games and claim one map pool is good for a race or not and make bold predictions.
For example Eclipse is a fairly balanced map and has been there for a while, but based on your preview it's almost a guarateed win for Zerg because it has 67% winrate. Likewise with the guaranteed win for Protoss on US because of the 77% winrate (which is based on like 3-4 games?).
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I'd say Hero's immense practicting time is simply paying off. He was playing and streaming really a LOT recently. His ro16 group win and recent win over Snow is no suprice for those who follow/watch him.
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On May 17 2021 17:59 Destroyer wrote:
I'd say Hero's immense practicting time is simply paying off. He was playing and streaming really a LOT recently. His ro16 group win and recent win over Snow is no suprice for those who follow/watch him.
Yea agreed, he has been a beat on his stream the last couple months
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EPT
